Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Will we have a guy break 9 WAR this season?

Poll ended at Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:40 pm

Yes
6
21%
No
22
79%
 
Total votes: 28

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David
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Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:40 pm

Just something I was thinking about. We have a lot of guys you can project to be around 5 win players, give or take one...Arrieta, Lester, Rizzo, Bryant, Heyward, Schwarber...you could even throw Zobrist and Russell into the mix as wild cards, just maybe not as solidly as those other guys.

For reference, Harper and Trout were the only players in this category last year. Josh Donaldson was just short. Trout was around 8 the year before and just over 10 the year before that. So it's pretty damn rare.

Was thinking about this and how we don't have a super-duper star like those guys, but with that many opportunities, we might have a guy have enough things to go right to get there, or just some crazy breakout waiting to happen from a guy who is already damn good (i.e. Addison...he has the skill-set being a premium defender at a premium position where if he can be just a pretty good offensive player, he's going to put up big time WAR totals).

BTW, It's very hard to get there as a pitcher, maybe even impossible by practical standards, so I shouldn't have even mentioned Arrieta and Lester. Kershaw and Jake didn't even get there last year and they were ridiculously amazing for 230 innings. I just listed them because they fit that 5ish win description.

Vote and discuss.
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby sneakypower » Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:06 pm

using the 7 win threshold makes this actually an interesting question

9+ is a firm hell no (although Jake did have 9.4 RA9-WAR in '15)
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:12 pm

sneakypower wrote:using the 7 win threshold makes this actually an interesting question

9+ is a firm hell no


i kinda think 7 is likely, given how many guys we have who can top out there. hell, we had one last year. and we had another half a win away who didn't play for 2 weeks.
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:14 pm

Yes, KB will put up a silly, unsustainable dWAR en route to an MVP
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:25 pm

I voted and think no, but if anyone is gonna do it it's most likely Bryant and maybe Heyward. If Bryant does Bryant things offensively and grades silly defensively (like SSR said) I could see it or if Heyward gets his usual defensive grade and taps into the offensive upside he possesses. I think we will have at least 4 6-8 WAR players, however.
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Thu May 05, 2016 3:09 am

Hmm.........maybe
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby Duke Silver » Thu May 05, 2016 3:33 am

hehe... remember before the season started, when we thought we were only 100-win good and not 120-win good?
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:55 am

1/3 of the way through, Fowler on pace for 9.3, Bryant for 7.8 (with wind blowing out in his future) and Zobrist for 8.4.
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby Derwood » Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:02 am

David wrote:1/3 of the way through, Fowler on pace for 9.3, Bryant for 7.8 (with wind blowing out in his future) and Zobrist for 8.4.


the 2016 Cubs are going to break the WAR stat
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:05 am

Dexter Fowler playing at a 9-win pace is the most unfair thing ever. He and Zobrist make me not even care about Heyward struggling.
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:09 pm

Duke Silver wrote:Dexter Fowler playing at a 9-win pace is the most unfair thing ever. He and Zobrist make me not even care about Heyward struggling.

I still care
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:19 pm

Very possibly
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:21 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:Yes, KB will put up a silly, unsustainable dWAR en route to an MVP


This is looking fairly prescient, except for it being based on some crazy extraordinarily good defensive number and not just a good one.
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Re: Will the Cubs have a 9+ fWAR player this year?

Postby David » Thu Feb 23, 2017 3:50 pm

btw KB ended up about a half win short
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