2021 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:BA says the Cubs have the 22nd pick, CBS has them with the 21st

*The rest of this post is nonsense*

I would like any of these 5 players:

Braylon Bishop
Izaac Pacheco
Christian MacLeod
Steve Hajjar
Carter Holton

Would guess maybe Bishop, Pacheco, and one of the college arms are there while Holton might go in the top 15 picks as the top HS P. If you want crazy comps, and who doesn't - Jim Edmonds, Jim Thome, Mark Buerhle, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee. Throw Eddie Murray in for Braden Montgomery. These purported ceilings are only possible if drafted by the Cubs


It’s the 21st pick. BA included Houston’s forfeited pick in their draft order.

(This assumes they’ll go with 2020 record for their 2021 draft order.)


MLB confirmed today that they’ll be going with reverse 2020 standings. The Cubs will pick 21st.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:52 pm

^^ Sweet

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https://www.prospectslive.com/live-look ... week-recap

Aidan Stewart, SS Next Level Academy (AL) | Missouri Commit | Ht: 6’5 Wt: 200 | H/T: S/R

It’s not often you see a middle infield prospect with the build of Tristan McKenzie. Aidan Stewart a 2021 shortstop out of Alabama breaks the mold. The switch-hitting Missouri commit is glove over bat at the moment. He made some smooth plays in the field and shows solid infield actions and movements.

At the plate he’s more advanced from the left side than the right, showing the ability to shoot the gaps from the left, but generating predominantly groundball contact from the right. Due to his long levers his swing will get long and it’s a somewhat linear bat path. Often gets caught off balance and too heavily onto his front foot. There is some projection left in the frame and he can flash average power on his best contact.


Not like a badass prospect but it's not often you see 6'5" switch hitting SSs at any level

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This guy is Zobrist's newphew, a LHH MIF with a recently attained DBU commit, maybe a poachable non-first recruit
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:56 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Sweet

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https://www.prospectslive.com/live-look ... week-recap

Aidan Stewart, SS Next Level Academy (AL) | Missouri Commit | Ht: 6’5 Wt: 200 | H/T: S/R

It’s not often you see a middle infield prospect with the build of Tristan McKenzie. Aidan Stewart a 2021 shortstop out of Alabama breaks the mold. The switch-hitting Missouri commit is glove over bat at the moment. He made some smooth plays in the field and shows solid infield actions and movements.

At the plate he’s more advanced from the left side than the right, showing the ability to shoot the gaps from the left, but generating predominantly groundball contact from the right. Due to his long levers his swing will get long and it’s a somewhat linear bat path. Often gets caught off balance and too heavily onto his front foot. There is some projection left in the frame and he can flash average power on his best contact.


Not like a badass prospect but it's not often you see 6'5" switch hitting SSs at any level

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This guy is Zobrist's newphew, a LHH MIF with a recently attained DBU commit, maybe a poachable non-first recruit


Seems unlikely to me. His dad is the head coach of DBU, where he is signed to play.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:46 pm



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Travis Garnett this month:

Spoiler: show
https://twitter.com/FlaSmitty/status/1316383919470768135?s=20


Carter Holton this month:

Spoiler: show
https://twitter.com/FlaSmitty/status/1316566560723677186?s=20


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This kid, Jackson Thomas, doesn't have a commit but I like how he throws more than alot of these other HS RHs:



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Not really what I was looking to read and not sure why anyone would have him over Christian MacLeod among college LHSP prospects if that's the look. Granted it's Fall and he's pitched very little in college so far, but that's more reason to prefer MacLeod!

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Alright so maybe I've been sleeping on Chase Burns:

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:43 pm



They've got MaCleod as a riser...all the way to the *23rd* best *college* prospect for 2021

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https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-s-regional ... e-coverage

Edwin Arroyo, SS, Arecibo Baseball Academy (PR): One of the few Puerto Rican players who really hit the summer showcase circuit, Arroyo continued to show why he’s considered the top player from the island in 2021. The Florida State commit is a switch-hitter who has shown he can handle velocity and has every chance to stay at shortstop defensively.

Victor Rodriguez, OF, Montverde Academy (Fla.): A late entry into the event, Rodriguez hails from the same high school that produced Francisco Lindor. The Florida International recruit has loud tools, starting with tremendous raw power, and has an arm that also fires low-90s fastballs from the mound.


Arroya switch hits, Rodriguez is like 6'5" already

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Since the national HS showcases seems to be over and the coverage seems to be towards college Fall ball...I'd say these HSers came out of the Summer most ready to be picked by Cubs:

Khalil Watson SS/IF - Top defensive IF and a LHH with the offensive tools to be a big bat 2B with a glove of Gold
James Wood CF - Seems like the highest upside position player though I like Watson more
Braylon Bishop CF - Also in that highest upside position player convo
Carter Holton LHSP - One of the harder throwing prep arms and has all the SP tools
Anthony Solometo LHSP - All the bells and whistles for a HS arm: throws hard, multiple offspeeds, 6'4", lefty, unique delivery, potential for command and control


Guys on the fringe:

Chase Burns RHSP - Hardest throwing RH along and big frame, good changeup, needs better breaking stuff
Irving Carter Jr RHSP - If he threw high 90's would maybe be the top guy, as a low 90's guy isn't a first rounder
Josh Hartle LHSP - Another guy who does it all and could throw harder in the Spring, maybe the best breaking stuff of the HSers?
Ryan Spikes IF - Probably a 2B but if he keeps mashing could be next year's Nick Yorke
Braden Montgomery OF/RHP - Improve strength and athleticism


- I said zero words about Khalil Watson the whole Summer, now he's my favorite player in the HS class, and I don't see it as an overreaction. He was on the radar, I probably just like to eliminate the physically larger prospects first. Note he's a LHH SS and there were a few of those: 6'3" Mayer, 6'2" Leto, 6'4" Pacheco who started the Summer with first round hype

- I didn't include Jordan Lawlar because he won't be available

- No Izaac Pacheco, meh Summer. Not even the top guy with his same giant LHH amateur but not pro SS thing...Luke Leto has the faster bat and got time at CF this Summer

- Early favorite non-first talents: Thaddeus Ector OF, Erian Rodriguez RHSP, Devin Futrell LHP, Ryan Johnson RHP, Travis Garnett LHP, Thatcher Hurd RHP, Micah Ottenbreit RHP, Jonathan Santucci 1B/LHP

- Should be way interesting, way, to see how this nonsense holds up will be on it for sure

BA on Watson in September, when they ranked him among the top 10 HSers:



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Fun fact about Irving Carter: He started his HS' state championship game as an 8th grader
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:20 pm

https://prospectsworldwide.com/2020/11/ ... -rankings/

- Kahlil Watson, currently my favorite prospect in this class for Cubs with the thought of a Howard/Watson MIF by 2024, has moved to among the top 10 HSers in this class (6th). While I think Lawlar is the rightful top prep, might not be so nervous about putting Watson right behind him if he maintains in the Spring. I think he ends up at 2B due to his length, but could be an all round star there with Brandon Lowe's high Iso game or maybe even higher like Robby Cano with a better PR team

- Here's a good read on James Wood from PG. He's a former basketball player like Brennen Davis, will come into pro ball maybe 50 pounds larger with speed/defense/power potential anyway:

Kenny Wood’s only son, James Wood, was also a standout basketball player in his youth or, more specifically, up until his junior year (2019) at St. John’s College High School in Washington, D.C.

Playing at an athletic 6-foot-6, 230 pounds, James was a very good hoopster playing at a nationally prominent prep program, but his heart and mind were tugging him in a different direction. James Wood decided to apply his efforts toward becoming the best baseball player he could possibly be.


- Yet another different prep LHP is the top ranked lefty, Gage Jump for this list. Just this year it seems like any of Drew Gray, Josh Hartle, Carter Holton, Maddux Bruns, Anthony Solometo, Devin Futrell, and maybe someone forgotten has held the title of top prep LHP. It'll be interesting to see who comes out ahead next Spring. They've all got their own thing, Jump's got approach angle on his fastball, mostly have paid attention to Hartle (some Darvish to his game), Holton (seems mean and vicious), and Solometo but that's just limited time and resources etc

- Haven't seen enough rankings to know if Joshua Baez is a consensus top 10 guy so props to getting him in there. Impressive athleticism on a physical and still growing 6'4" 200+ frame

- Mayer at 3 seems high between a mediocre Summer that saw him miss a few events

- I think I'm on the Ryan Spikes wagon too. He's a shorter, compact R/R infielder, has played all 3 of SS/2B/3B and could/should end up at 2B, consensus seems to be that he's one of the best hitters in the class

- The writeup on 6'3" LHH current SS Gavin Conticello - comping him to a more athletic Tristan Casas with a shot to stick at 3B - is some good stuff so there's another name to look for. Casas is a beast

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This is a big deal for this draft since this guy has first round potential as a CF prospect:

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/sports/hig ... _pbpsports
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:55 am

The PG Staff had a mock draft: https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vi ... &src=hmrep

Jud Fabian went 1.1 over Kumar Rocker.

21. Chicago Cubs | Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (Okla.) | (2/50) Jon Childress, LHP, Texas A&M
A great athlete that has made a full transition to the mound, Jackson Jobe has now become one of the nation’s premier arms and lands himself in the first round in this mock to the Cubs. At 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, he looks the part with the athleticism as a sub-7.0 runner and secondary shortstop to control the limbs well, but it’s the mid-90s fastball and what may be regarded as the best slider in the class that garners this much helium. Jon Childress gives the Cubs a former Perfect Game All-American, and premier prep talent a couple years ago, as their second-round pick from College Station. The long and projectable left-hander works in the low-90s with great angle at release while showing feel for a firm cutter and an even better slider with big potential. -Tyler Russo

Sakowski’s Take: Jobe earns rave reviews for both the evaluation and the metrics of his stuff on the mound, highlighted by a slider that flashes 70 mph at times. He’s got tremendous upside with that combination of stuff and athleticism, while Childress, a Tommy John survivor, represents another potential upside play at pick 50. Childress has the upside to go higher if he performs in the SEC this spring, but pick 50 looks like a good spot right now based on fall intel.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:17 am



Cubs pick 22nd in every round after the first. Reds and Brewers got first supplemental round picks, Cardinals and Pirates got 2nd

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Also also still at Kahlil Watson and Christian MacLeod
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Dec 12, 2020 3:17 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updated- ... prospects/

100% agreed with this analysis.

The group of players who was supposed to be in the 2020 Draft class was deep with talent, and so the 2021 Draft class will be very deep, too, but the industry will be working with less information, or at the very least will have one hell of a time trying to acquire it. We’ll likely still be dealing with COVID-19 in February when the college season begins, and we have yet to see all the schools where college baseball programs will become collateral damage as a result of fewer football games being played. Also remember that both COVID and the operational budgets imposed upon MLB scouting staffs will likely discourage travel next spring, just as they did during the summer. So teams will lean on data, which, remember, now gets shared. More on that in a minute.

The areas of high-level industry confidence in this draft are probably also going to be different this year. Because we had no Collegiate Team USA or Cape Cod League this summer, the top-end college talent was scattered across wood bat leagues throughout the country rather than concentrated in one or two places like it usually is. The opposite was true for high school prospects. Only a few states were nutty enough to allow big travel ball events during the summer, so all the high-end high school talent was in the South/Southeast for showcases several times. Since it was often the best bang for their scouting buck, that’s typically where war room decision-makers were, too.

I’d argue that, especially for hitters, the summer is the most important part of a high schooler’s evaluation process anyway. Their peers are much better, on average, than they are during varsity play in the spring and it’s much easier to compare prospects when they’re all on the same field at the same time. Data is collected at these showcase events, too, and we’ll also have less of that for college players. Teams had barely gotten into conference play when the pandemic ended the 2020 season, so we have little to no data for players’ sophomore years, nothing from the Cape during the summer, and a volatile collection period looms in 2021.

All of this is to say that for the 2021 class, I think it’s possible that teams will have more conviction and confidence in high school prospects than college ones.


https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the ... pe=0&team=

Kahlil Watson at 6, MacLeod at 49
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:54 pm

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2021/draft/


Top 100 is out with write-ups, huzzah

“I think the high school position class is pretty good and it might just be because we know them a little better now,” one National League scouting director said. “If I was going by quadrants, high school positions guys are above average to good; college arms are probably in the above-average to good range; college bats, that’s the toughest one to assess right now. It’s probably an average college bat class. And I think the high school arms are down a little bit.”


They give Lawlar the 6'2" listing and the #2 spot, more normal, but yeah reading the writeup I definitely don't think he's a better prospect than Howard out of HS so it's interesting to see him doing so well in such a loaded draft. MY *guess* is they see him as the most prototypical first prep SS off the board, 6'2" RHH with the actions to stick and offensive upside and still 18 on draft day, and it's more an algorithm based ranking. The next highest ranked prep SSs either missed alot of the summer stuff (Mayer) or might be better off at 2B and is listed at 5'9" (Watson). This isn't to say Lawlar is a bad prospect, just some skepticism that he's the #2 guy in this draft or even the top HS player

Watson is at 16. First I've read about "volatile on-field behavior," though my guess is it's connected to the various comments about some showmanship when he hits the ball hard that's been in tweets and blog reports all year:

Watson has a chance to become the third North Carolina prep shortstop selected in the first round, following Pat Lennon (1986) and Corey Seager (2012). He offers the upside of potential solid or better tools across the board and acquitted himself well on the showcase circuit during the summer. Teams have concerns about his volatile on-field behavior, however, which could affect his Draft status.

Watson plays bigger than his listed 5-foot-9 and 178 pounds at the plate. He has plenty of bat speed and takes a big left-handed cut, giving him at least solid raw pop. Though he has an aggressive power-over-hit approach that may need toning down against more advanced pitchers, he does make consistent contact and doesn't chase pitches out of the strike zone too often.

With speed that consistently grades as plus and sometimes better, Watson is a basestealing threat. The North Carolina State recruit has the actions and instincts to play a solid shortstop. He could play almost anywhere on the diamond with his quickness and arm strength, and his offensive potential would allow him to profile well at several positions.


Christian MacLeod:

Though the pandemic limited him to just four starts last spring, MacLeod tied a Mississippi State freshman record with a pair of double-digit strikeout outings, matching former first-round choices Eric DuBose and Paul Maholm. He fanned 45 percent of the hitters he faced in his debut, which was delayed a year because he redshirted in 2019 after coming down with pneumonia. He has one of the higher floors among college pitchers in the 2021 class and a profile similar to that of Reid Detmers, who went 10th overall to the Angels in 2020.

MacLeod's best pitch is a plus upper-70s curveball with good depth that plays well off his fastball. His heater has below-average velocity at 89-93 mph but is effective because he commands. He tunnels it well with his curve and it has high spin rates and riding life that keep it off barrels. He also has the makings of at least an average changeup in the low 80s with sink.

MacLeod uses his 6-foot-4 frame and high three-quarters arm slot to create downhill plane on his pitches and good extension in his delivery, which he repeats easily. His strength, durability and efficiency with locating his offerings all enhance his chances at making a big league rotation. He keeps hitters off balance with his ability to sequence his pitches and move them around the strike zone.


Braylon Bishop all the way at 74. The comments about his centerfield and outfiend defense, in tandem with his 3 sport athleticism, feed my optimism that he's not really so raw:

Bishop has stood out as one of the best athletes in the 2021 prep class since early in his high school career, starring on the showcase circuit and committing to the University of Arkansas as a 15-year-old. Though he's also a quarterback and track star at Arkansas High (Texarkana, Ark.), his future is on the diamond. If teams believe enough in his bat, he should be the state's first prep position player taken in the first three rounds since Corey Ragsdale in 2001.

While Bishop's left-handed swing is less than picturesque, he has impressive bat speed and makes hard contact when he connects. He has struggled against the better pitching he has faced in showcases, getting tied up and producing strikeouts and groundballs. There's risk with his bat, but the rest of his tools could be solid or better once he's fully developed.

Bishop has plus speed and the instincts to get the most out of it on the bases. He makes good reads and takes good routes in center field, where he could become a plus defender with more experience. Add in his solid arm strength and he's capable of playing anywhere in the outfield.




Not a big fan of the comp they give Irv Carter (79). Toussaint had a legendary curveball in HS that put him on the map, never showed Carter's potential for command and control or athleticism on the mound either plus Carter's a little bigger coming out:

There are a lot of things to like with Carter, particularly his size, physicality and arm strength. The 6-foot-4 right-hander has a fastball that is currently up to 94 mph, but given his frame, scouts feel there’s more in the tank, with a consistent mid-90s fastball certainly feasible. He complements his fastball with a very good slider, thrown in the low 80s. He hasn’t needed it much, but Carter has shown some feel for a changeup, though it can get firm at times, up to 87 mph.

Carter will change up his delivery, incorporating things like a Johnny Cueto-like turn-around, but he tends to be around the plate and should have average control once he commits to a consistent delivery. Given his size and stuff, the Miami recruit has reminded some of Touki Toussaint, who was a first-round pick from the area back in 2014.


Probably lots more to say - I like that group of arms ranked between 28-36...The two top ranked catchers are LHHs, one college one prep...Renee Lestres, Carter and Painter's catcher in HS, seems interesting as a 6'3" glove first HS catcher with a Florida commit, very young for the draft too. Not a first rounder but someone who might get improve alot. Same thing for Colson Montgomery, a 6'4" LHH 3B prospect with an Indian commit. Christian Franklin (46) the Arkansas CF seems interesting as another guy with CF potential...Noah Miller, a switch hitting SS from Wisconsin and #99 on that list, seems interesting as one of 3 switch hitters on the list (Braden Montgomery and Edwin Arroyo, who also switch throws?)
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:15 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Watson is at 16. First I've read about "volatile on-field behavior," though my guess is it's connected to the various comments about some showmanship when he hits the ball hard that's been in tweets and blog reports all year:


Longehagen had similar comments about his on-field behavior in the Fangraphs draft board you posted a few posts ago.

ETA: Max Ferguson would be a steal at 42 (BA has him in the 40s too).
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:07 pm

^ I didn't read EL's blurb the other day got too excited at 6th, but have seen multiple comments from the various twitter draft guys about some demonstrative behavior. I don't mind so long as he's staying out of real trouble, even think the Cubs could use a little bit of that brand of confidence and that it's part of the appeal (though not as much as the whole LHH MIF defender with real potential to mash with power and speed)

Ferguson's another LHH non-1B IF in this draft, yes please more of those. I've kinda skirted over the college hitters in this draft, only really noticed Franklin because Joe Doyle wrote a profile for him over atLookouts Landing, one of several fairly in depth looks on 2021 draftees
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:46 am

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-draft- ... s-q-a-2021

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-draft- ... e-coverage

What's your take on outfielder James Wood?
-- @LPnyC84

If Kahlil Watson shows out over the course of this draft cycle, how high could he rise in this Draft class?
-- @thebettermarkle

Wood and Watson come in at No. 14 and No. 15, respectively, on the Top 100, so it’s clear we think highly of both high schoolers. Both have very high ceilings and either/both of them could climb into the top 10 with strong, consistent spring performances.

For Wood, it’ll be him having to show that the player who was as good as any high school position player over the first have of the summer is who he is, not the one who showed too much swing-and-miss in the second part of the showcase circuit. Those who saw him late didn’t think he was a first-rounder, let alone one who belonged near the top. With Watson, it’s more a concern with his volatile on-field behavior than anything, with tremendous tools and the ability to play shortstop. In both cases, we think they’re going to perform enough to belong or we wouldn’t have put them in the top 15.


How does Round 1 of this Draft compare to last year? and the depth?
-- @Y2banana

I don’t know if you’ve gotten this from a lot of what we’ve said and written, but there is so much unknown about this upcoming Draft class, that this one is a hard one to answer. I polled a selection of scouting directors and national scouts to get a sense of what they felt about it and got a lot of question marks back in return. A sampling:

“The overall unknown ... causes some uncertainty” -- especially as it pertains to the college class.

“Overall, I think there is uncertainty from both the high school and college players.”

One scouting director did relay he felt the top of last year’s class was better and more defined than this year, but that this class overall is deeper than a year ago. Another national scout liked the breakdown of “quadrants” that appeared in our Top 100 story, which basically can be whittled down to a ranking like this:

1. High school position players: above-average to good
2. College pitching: above-average to good
3. College bats: average, but hard to assess
4. High school pitching: down a bit

Some of that, as scouts have admitted, comes from familiarity bias. The high school guys were seen much more in the summer and fall. On the flip side, as one national crosschecker told me, that provides a larger group than normal of college players waiting to make that jump into the first round and push some high school players down with a strong spring.

Some high school players not on the Top 100 that could climb up boards?

-- @JenkinsNahmir

Mayo: From my areas (Jim Callis and I split up the country), SS Davis Diaz and C Charlie Saum in California; C/RHP Jackson Baumeister and 1B Jac Caglianone in Florida; Calvin Ziegler, RHP in Canada, to name a few.

Callis: I'll tag-team on this question with non-Top 100 guys from my half of the country who could move up ... Alabama HS LHP Maddux Bruns (huge ceiling), Louisiana HS SS Peyton Stovall, South Carolina HS RHP Daniel Brooks, Mississippi LHP Doug Nikhazy (high floor guy).


I'm surprised, but also didn't notice, Bruns did not make the top 100. One college pitcher no one's really talking about but has to have been seen many times and be known as a talent is Ryan Webb out of Georgia. Several of his teammates (Locey, Hancock, Wilcox) have gone high recently, he's a healthy lefty with arm strength and a pro frame in a good SEC program, and should handily go in the first 5 rounds after not doing that during the 2020 draft

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:29 pm

Not really sure what thread this goes in so draft it is....Interesting and relevant comment from Andy Haines, former Cubs coach and current Brewers' hitting coach, in this interview:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/milwaukees- ... s-hitting/

Laurila: Given the proliferation of travel ball and high-tech training facilities, do most hitters come to pro ball with a good understanding of what works for them?

Haines: “That’s a great question, and I’m going to say the answer is no. Our amateur game has changed so much. It’s turned more into showcase-type events, and not really what the game demands in order to be successful, day in and day out — what a professional season is.

“There’s no question they’re more knowledgeable about evidence-based theories. It’s not just concepts to them, it’s about what really happens within the swing. That’s because of technology and what they’re exposed to, but while that’s real, the game is the best teacher. What players are learning — what is getting thrown right in their face in a minor league season — is that the laboratory environment that told you, ‘OK, that’s the correct swing’ doesn’t matter if the ‘right swing’ doesn’t match up to what the pitch demands in a game.

“That’s what those players have to learn, and I think they’re lacking in a pretty large scale because of what they miss out in the amateur game. Again, it’s more showcase-type events now. In the minor leagues, the everydayness of how the game keeps coming at you, and the quality of stuff they have to face, and the mental fortitude it takes to manage their at-bats… it’s not Disneyland. The games are way more messy than how they were raised in this laboratory environment.


I agree with that of course, considered it to be what made Ed Howard a special player since he both played a ton of baseball and hit a bunch of showcase metrics, and wonder how baseball will evolve since clearly it seems like the owners' running the *whole* show much prefer less actual baseball at all levels. Look at what already happened to Nick Bitsko, who rose up draft ranks almost totally through a more modern process, and this kid's already having shoulder surgery. Conditioning suffers massively, injury risk flies up, careers are shorter, year to year performance is more volatile....That's where this is all going...The NCAA, looking to build up the brand of college baseball, will rob the vast majority of young players of their best and most formative years by putting less emphasis on coaching (btw many top NCAA coaches left during the 2010s for the pros) and most on winning - which in combo with a bunch of kids who trained to nail showcases rather than play a ton of baseball in real time will really water down the player pool...It's scary stuff, we're literally watching a few handful billionaires manipulate the evolution of their labor force at extremely young ages...Yes, I'm crazy but also probably right

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Ricky Tiedemann up to 94 with a high spin slider during some domestic winter ball action:

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https://twitter.com/BaseballCensus/status/1335744999804137473?s=20


Looks interesting for outside the first:

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:46 pm

Prospects Live updated their board to a top 350:

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/202 ... -prospects

Much more college heavy up top with only 6 HSers in the top 20, Watson at 18

"Fun" article looking at the HS reports of next year's top college prospects:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-college-d ... -prospects
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:04 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Prospects Live updated their board to a top 350:

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/202 ... -prospects

Much more college heavy up top with only 6 HSers in the top 20, Watson at 18

"Fun" article looking at the HS reports of next year's top college prospects:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-college-d ... -prospects


I’m glad to see Thatcher Hurd start to make his way up boards. I’ve got him in the 30s in my internal list. Big spin rate guy and an athletic delivery. He’s new to full time pitching so there’s less mileage on the arm. I think some model-friendly team is going to take him relatively early.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:50 pm

BA’s first mock draft: https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... ock-draft/

1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
2. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
3. Jordan Lawler, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS (TX)
4. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)
5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
6. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
7. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
8. James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)
9. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville
10. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

21. Cubs: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Notes:
Collegiate catchers are a demographic that routinely gets pushed up the board, as teams have to navigate the extreme risk inherent with prep backstops. Because of that, Davis is positioned well heading into 2021 after improving his hitting ability in two years with Louisville. Davis was known for his massive arm strength out of high school, but questions about his bat allowed him to reach campus, where he has been a .303/.381/.463 hitter with 21 walks to 22 strikeouts.


Like Louisville, the Cubs do an excellent job developing hitters. Davis and Binelas would give Louisville two first-round hitters for the second time in the program’s history, with the duo joining Corey Ray (5) and Will Smith (32) in a 2016 class that also produced RHP Zack Burdi from the program.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:01 am

Speaking of always talking out of my ass: Complete 180 on Tyree Reed, who got bumped up to 6'3" on PG and others and has way more bat than I thought

Since it's almost the new year...Top 10 HSers:

1: Harry Ford - Best HS catching prospect in some time, bat and athleticism could play at pretty much any position but full time SS if you threw him there early enough, very unique prospect like if Javier Baez played catcher, took walks, and doesn't strike out

2: Tyree Reed - Coming into 2021 hot, very similar size and toolset to new guy Ismael Mena with a little more physicality and polish, easy CFer

3: Kahlil Watson - More likely than Lawlar to stick up the middle, huge offensive and overall ceiling at 2B

4: Chase Petty - Hardest thrower in the HS class, developing offspeeds, will scare alot of people off with his size but he'll start

5: Carter Holton - Maybe the hardest throwing LHSP in this draft, 4 pitches, big fan of his delivery

6: Brady House - Might be on a SS to 3B possibly to 1B/LF path similar to Drew Bowser this year (I prefer Bowser), the kind of prospect that might do better in college than HS unless an org pays up...I think Rhys Hoskins is a pretty good player :dontknow:

7: Jordan Lawlar - No homer: Lawlar is generally going to be compared favorably to Ed Howard, but he's no Ed Howard. He's more similar to Royce Lewis of the Twins, a #1 overall pick so he's got plenty of draft ceiling, in that that he's not a sure SS but is tooled up enough to end up there and still hit. Or even Carlos Correa, another #1 pick

8: Joshua Baez - The OF version of Lawlar in that the bat is more projectable than the defense but there just might be enough to stick up the middle depending on time and effort and some luck

9: Josh Hartle - Nothing really crazy about his stuff (yet?) beyond great feel for his breaking ball and overall command and control, is maybe the most natural strike thrower of the top HS arms, approach, frame, and delivery really kinda remind me of Darvish but less Cubs-centric looks might see like Nick Lodolo or Kyle Finnegan thanks to the lower arm slot and approach. Wake Forest recruit, very hip pitching program that just sent Jared Shuster in the first after hitting 96 with a changeup

10: Irv Carter - I tried not to put him on here but yeah, if he's hitting the upper 90s in the Spring he's basically Grayson Rodriguez, opened 2020 almost universally listed 6'4" 200+ (210 on Pipeline)
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:36 am

Recent writeup of Tyree Reed...Be warned this is not obviously put out by Disney or someone official like that so you might just be reading the words of one of these unhealthy fringe lunatic sports fans:



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Tim Williams with a half dozen windups in that clip, yes please more athletes like this:



Throws both a curveball and slider
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:35 pm





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