2021 Draft Thread

[Tim]

Remember this name....Devin Futrell. LHP 2021 Was 90-93 in his 1st outing of the year. Huge upside with a 4 pitch mix

Fruity...Futrell...Fruity...Futrell...

Hi Devin! Or is it Devin's dad? Brother?

[TomtheBombadil]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-will-te ... ars-draft/

KG: Where there’s a will, there’s a way. There are lots of unanswered questions, but I don’t see any way teams are going to be as comfortable with their board in July as they are used to being. Do you agree, and do you think that leads to teams drafting more conservatively in the end?

EL: I don’t think so. I agree that teams are going to be less comfortable with their boards than ever before (less so than last year, even), but I think the minor league restructuring also impacts how teams are thinking about the draft. I think they’re more likely to use huge chunks of their bonus pool on higher upside high school types, then scoop up their favorites of the unusually-high number of very signable college guys later on. We’ve already talked about how there will be so many college players available, a lot of them older after being passed over last year, so supply/demand dynamics are at play here. I think we’ll see more drafts that look like the Mets 2019 draft and every Padres draft. Unless teams already have thought of ways to circumvent the minor league roster limits, it makes sense to put more of your bonus eggs into fewer prospect baskets now that there’s less room for the go-wide approach to farm building that a lot of teams are undertaking. And I think teams will be more confident in high school players this year relative to college players because their summer was more “normal” from a scouting standpoint.

KG: I’m just not sure. I do think you’ll get some interesting late-round situations where the area scout couldn’t travel as much, but he went to the D-II school that he can drive to four times and he feels really strongly about the lefty there.

KG: Any thoughts on how the draft moving from June to July affects things? The obvious answer is more time to evaluate, but any subtle things you can think of? Teams certainly won’t miss having the College World Series on in the draft room and watching the kid they just took in the fourth round throw 138 pitches.

EL: I think it provides more time for private workouts but I’m not sure how much those will move the needle for teams. Maybe the clubs that lean on evaluating players when the lights are brightest will get thirsty for the college guys who perform in Omaha. This is a thing that happens in the NBA Draft all the time and which baseball has never had to deal with it before, over or underrating guys because of those last couple of weeks.

EL: Do you think an overwhelming portion of the high school evaluations are done? Or rather, that the needle can’t move quite as much for them since the summer before, they faced elite peers rather than playing varsity ball, and that maybe the confidence teams have in high school versus college players has flipped this year?

KG: Maybe. I know plenty of teams line up their prep boards pretty early and the spring looks are to just make sure he is what you think he is and that there haven’t been any big changes. Obviously, there are always some pop up players, mostly arms you need to go see. But my overwhelming experience has been that they’re overblown in the sense that you hear about the kid throwing 97, you go, and then it’s 92-93.

EL: It might not apply to all the high schoolers, though. Because all of the summer showcase high school events took place in the Southeastern portion of our country (COVID be damned), a bunch of the West Coast prospects barely played in them (Marcelo Mayer, Tyree Reed, etc.). So those are the high-priority types for teams to see this spring.

They also speculate 20 rounds, maybe a $125K NDFA cap before hitting the bonus pool (booooooooooooooo)...Goldstein speculates the draft will never top 30 rounds again, which seems fine to me could also just go away forever

Sounds like a good year to steal some college pitching? I was surprised FGs had Wicks at 21...Not that Wicks is the be all end all of SP prospects, but it's not hard to see him throwing ML innings and as a SP with that changeup and his control. FGs doesn't have Connor Prielipp, Ryan Webb, etc ranked among the 90 names on The Board...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So Jack Leiter is now working 96-100 (if the TV gun is to be believed) which was definitely not something he could do last year.

[Bertz]

I'm already looking forward to the inevitable article debating whether Rocker/Leiter is a better 1-2 than Cole/Bauer.

[Bertz]

So Jack Leiter is now working 96-100 (if the TV gun is to be believed) which was definitely not something he could do last year.

[TomtheBombadil]

Baseball America called him the "best lefty in the 2021 draft" back in November and PG has him hitting 97 last Summer, tops among HS lefties

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The 21st ranked player for FanGraphs' update, Jordan Wicks, had a big opening night:



He'd be a good pick at 21, but also don't know he gets there. Changeup is his outpitch

So did a future steal for someone hopefully Cubs:

Wicks showed a solid three-pitch mix including a fastball that averaged around 93 mph in the early frames, his standout changeup and a reliable breaking ball.

Wicks was 89-91 last year so that’s nice.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... dium=email

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Gunnar Hoglund is working 93-96 which is a slight velocity bump. Kiley has him 8th overall.

I’m getting the impression 2022 draft pick Elijah Green might the best prep prospect since Bryce Harper. Kiley said HS junior Elijah Green would be the first pick overall this year if he was eligible and BA and FG are also huge fans.

[TomtheBombadil]

I don't know about MLB records but that changeup is $

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[TomtheBombadil]

Someone on the internet gave Davis the same knock as Amaya: questioned his bat speed. I thought that was interesting since it's OK to question Amaya's offensive ceiling right now and both players haven't had issues with Ks

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This guy was on the same U18 Canada team in 2019 as Owen Caissie, switch hitting MIFer:



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Last year there was a Caden Grice as a HS L/L 1B/P who seemed to have some real two way potential, this year maybe it's Jac Caglianone. 6'5" Florida recruit up to 94 with a slider and changeup:

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RJ Anderson did did a top 50:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb- ... r-at-no-1/

He's got Steve Hajjar as a first round prospect (25 overall) and above Wicks at 26. Personally, Wicks is probably the only college lefty worth taking in the first right now. MacLeod's come out kinda meh as far as going in the first round. Richard Fitts is pretty high too, 17 overall. He's one of the more toolsy college RHs, but hasn't been so dominant at Auburn

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Also also Christian Little started a game for Vanderbilt at 17, threw 3 innings, might have been a first rounder in 2021

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Ryan Webb was dominant for Georgia coming off of a covid diagnosis, 6 shutout innings with 8 Ks, no BBs, and just 2 Hs

[toonsterwu]

A bit off the radar due to his struggles so far in his first two years, but I'm quietly optimistic that Mike Vasil is putting it together. Curious if the stuff holds up, but if the stuff and command holds up, I wouldn't be stunned if he forced his way back into the first. Those are big if's, though. Looking real good right now. Wouldn't be surprised if he were eventually moved to the Friday slot at some point this year.

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/joedoylemilb/status/1366126274503077888?s=21

I forget where I saw it (a recent Longenhagen Chat?), but It sounds like his exit velocities are kind of ridiculous too. That'd be a fun as hell profile to add. And as loaded as the system is at catcher, there's room in the pipeline in between Amaya and Hearn.

That said, fun college hitters always get pushed up the board as we get closer to draft day, so even though he looks to go in our range now I doubt that'll be true by July.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/joedoylemilb/status/1366126274503077888?s=21

I forget where I saw it (a recent Longenhagen Chat?), but It sounds like his exit velocities are kind of ridiculous too. That'd be a fun as hell profile to add. And as loaded as the system is at catcher, there's room in the pipeline in between Amaya and Hearn.

That said, fun college hitters always get pushed up the board as we get closer to draft day, so even though he looks to go in our range now I doubt that'll be true by July.

And college catchers get pushed up too so I think it's more likely Davis will be in the top 10 than available for the Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[TomtheBombadil]

Jordan Wicks had another good outing, 6 shutout, 8 Ks, still prob my favorite fit for the Cubs among college arms in the first

Christian Macleod got roughed up for the second time in a row

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His first outing was a one hitter with 17 Ks

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Ben Kudrna seems like a HS RH in the mold of Moreno or even Franklin a little with maybe more pedigree than either. Could be one of the tougher HS players to sign, an LSU commit:

[TomtheBombadil]