2018 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 36832
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1039
x 1388

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:27 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


His arm is going to explode from that splitter. I have to question the need to throw so many splitters, and by all accounts he threw a bunch, in an early season game against an OOC opponent. I get that he's showing off for scouts and all that, but damn dude, maybe ease up a little bit to ensure that you even have an arm by the time of the draft.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1874
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1500
x 531

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:48 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


His arm is going to explode from that splitter. I have to question the need to throw so many splitters, and by all accounts he threw a bunch, in an early season game against an OOC opponent. I get that he's showing off for scouts and all that, but damn dude, maybe ease up a little bit to ensure that you even have an arm by the time of the draft.


I don't know if that holds true anymore. The conventional wisdom used to be that screwballs and splitters were really bad for your arm/shoulder, but I'm not sure if that's true anymore. I also remember hearing or reading that throwing too many curveballs at a young age is bad. I think they've proven throwing a curveball puts less stress on the UCL/elbow area than throwing a fastball.

Ultimately, I think it really depends on the pitcher's mechanics, and you have to judge it on a case-by-case basis.
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:54 am

Regular Show wrote:Ultimately, I think it really depends on the pitcher's mechanics, and you have to judge it on a case-by-case basis.


I'm actually leaning these days on most of the issues with pitchers coming down to strength and conditioning, though obviously an athletic and repeatable delivery is a must. In the case of UCL issues I'm thinking stronger forearms, hands, and fingers are a huge deal, but obviously this is some guy guessing on the internet for free based on a line in The Arm and then who knows. I noticed a few years ago that Vanderbilt puts a ton of emphasis on forearm and hand strength, the rice bucket was borderline revered, and their pitchers generally stay healthy at least avoiding the most dangerous injuries.
0 x

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:18 am

Some notes on Rocker, Cole Wilcox, Bryce Turang, and Cole Winn from PG:

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vi ... icle=14967

I am not in like with Wilcox's delivery but that is another frame teams will dream on. Winn's a non-first HS arm I didn't dislike but there's no video in that article.
0 x

Bertz
Starter
Posts: 666
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:59 pm
x 273
x 323

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:47 pm

Regular Show wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


His arm is going to explode from that splitter. I have to question the need to throw so many splitters, and by all accounts he threw a bunch, in an early season game against an OOC opponent. I get that he's showing off for scouts and all that, but damn dude, maybe ease up a little bit to ensure that you even have an arm by the time of the draft.


I don't know if that holds true anymore. The conventional wisdom used to be that screwballs and splitters were really bad for your arm/shoulder, but I'm not sure if that's true anymore. I also remember hearing or reading that throwing too many curveballs at a young age is bad. I think they've proven throwing a curveball puts less stress on the UCL/elbow area than throwing a fastball.

Ultimately, I think it really depends on the pitcher's mechanics, and you have to judge it on a case-by-case basis.


In The Arm, Jeff Passan made it sound like the main driver of injury is thought to be velocity at this point.

Then again, the Tommy John apocalypse that he predicted that drove him to write the book looks to have just been a two year blip so who knows. I think anything beyond "pitching is bad" is just theory.
0 x

User avatar
CubsWin
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6989
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 9:25 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA
x 177
x 397

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CubsWin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:47 am

So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?
0 x
”I do sincerely hope the Cubs win a World Series. After I die.” - Jerry Reinsdorf, January, 2015. Sorry you had to witness that, Jer...

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22546
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 5635
x 4310

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:00 am

CubsWin wrote:So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?

That sounds about right +/- a spot or two on the comp picks (might still depend on where Cobb and Holland go since they are the only 2 FA left with QO's attached I believe). Really hoping we end with 1-2 solid prospects that pan out with the 5 picks in the top 100 and 4 in the top 80.

I may have asked this already, but how much extra draft pool do the 2 QO picks net us?
0 x
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:49 pm

Jackson Kowar is a confusing prospect for me.
0 x

Bertz
Starter
Posts: 666
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:59 pm
x 273
x 323

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:21 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
CubsWin wrote:So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?

That sounds about right +/- a spot or two on the comp picks (might still depend on where Cobb and Holland go since they are the only 2 FA left with QO's attached I believe). Really hoping we end with 1-2 solid prospects that pan out with the 5 picks in the top 100 and 4 in the top 80.

I may have asked this already, but how much extra draft pool do the 2 QO picks net us?


Based on last year's numbers, looks like about $1.5 million.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2017-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values/c-223686792
0 x

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 90451
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 569
x 2796

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:19 pm

Cubs get pick 78 for Arrieta compensation (for now).

http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order
0 x
Image

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:38 pm

Steve Hajjar (LHP) and Ryan Cusick (RHP) are two HS arms I like for the Cubs. Cusick is from the Boston area. Both have the tall, loose, athletic frames on the mound for the PD department to go ahead and engineer.
0 x

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1874
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1500
x 531

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:36 pm

A lot of posters here really like LHP - M. Liberatore so I'll post the link to a recent article on Fangraphs. I still think the Cubs have no chance at him, and it's kind of a waste of time to dream on getting him. I do think his velocity picks up as we get closer to the draft, and that he gets taken in the 2-8 range.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-glanc ... aft-stock/
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
javy knows my name
previously Beertown Cubbie
Posts: 9083
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 10:46 pm
Location: Chicago
x 1373
x 565

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby javy knows my name » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:08 am

Regular Show wrote:A lot of posters here really like LHP - M. Liberatore so I'll post the link to a recent article on Fangraphs. I still think the Cubs have no chance at him, and it's kind of a waste of time to dream on getting him. I do think his velocity picks up as we get closer to the draft, and that he gets taken in the 2-8 range.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-glanc ... aft-stock/


Can you do me a huge favor and post the full horsefeathering name of horsefeathering 17 year olds that nobody's horsefeathering heard of?

You know a lot about draft prospects and you post a lot of cool horsefeathers about them and I'd like to benefit from your knowledge rather than wanting to choke you out.
2 x
neely wrote:but in reality
2006 .364
2007 .351
2008 his one big year
2009 .347
2010 90 games played
2011 .323
what do you call that?

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:13 am

Lots of helium for HS LHH OF Connor Scott. McDaniel said he's "Kyle Tucker with 70 speed and maybe less power" plus he can hit 93 on the mound as a LHP. I was off on those tools a couple pages ago by a wee bit.

Oh and he also said Alec Bohm is rising into at least the 10-15 range. Bohm's frame and tons of college production are premium in the draft and strong indicators. Not sure if he's a 3B but he's never not been a masher in college, including killing it in the Cape Cod league. I think he belongs in the top 10 pretty easily and if he keeps hitting like this...Rooting for the Pirates, Reds, or VBs to land him, he's passed Baker as my favorite RHH power bat.
0 x

User avatar
CoolHandLuke
All-Star
Posts: 4160
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 8:48 pm
Location: Mount Prospect
x 24
x 101

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CoolHandLuke » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:02 am

javy knows my name wrote:
Regular Show wrote:A lot of posters here really like LHP - M. Liberatore so I'll post the link to a recent article on Fangraphs. I still think the Cubs have no chance at him, and it's kind of a waste of time to dream on getting him. I do think his velocity picks up as we get closer to the draft, and that he gets taken in the 2-8 range.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-glanc ... aft-stock/


Can you do me a huge favor and post the full horsefeathering name of horsefeathering 17 year olds that nobody's horsefeathering heard of?

You know a lot about draft prospects and you post a lot of cool horsefeathers about them and I'd like to benefit from your knowledge rather than wanting to choke you out.


Woah, killer.

If you really cared about benefitting from the knowledge, you'd have probably clicked the link. And found out what the M stands for.

Or you could probably type the last name followed by "mlb draft prospect" and have a pretty decent chance is figuring it out all by yourself.
1 x

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 90451
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 569
x 2796

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:17 am

BA's 2nd Draft Tracker: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -his-case/

Stock Rising:

Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
Alec Brohm, 3B, Wichita State
Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)

Stock Falling:

Griffin Conine, OF, Duke
Nick Springel, LHP, San Diego

Pop-Up Player:

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Fivay High (Hudson, FL) - Kiley McDaniel mentioned him earlier this week too:



One To Watch:

Steve Hajjar, LHP, Central Catholic HS (Lawrence, MA)
1 x
Image

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1874
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1500
x 531

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:22 am

So I'm going to do a short writeup on Wichita State 3B Alec Bohm. I considered him a top prospect going back a few months and wished I wrote about him before he blew up. Scouts love this guy now.

I think everyone who follows draft prospects here pretty closely knows about this guy and his teammate (Greyson Jenista). They're both top prospects who should go in the 1st round. Jenista is the better athlete I believe, but I'm convinced Bohm has the superior bat. Bohm is a big guy at 6'5" and 240 lbs with good physicality. I don't think he'll get much bigger, but he's already plenty strong. He might slow down as he gets older. Scouts aren't sure if he can stick at 3B since his speed and arm strength only rate as average. (Correction: I talked to someone and got this wrong. His speed is considered below-average. His time from home-to-1B is not good. My bad.) If he can't stick at 3B everyone says he'll have to move to 1B because he doesn't have the speed or range to play corner OF. That's the downside and pessimistic view. I think he can stick at 3B personally.

His bat is what makes him special. He bats righthanded and it's a very nice swing. He takes a small stride forward and has a short swing. Doesn't sell out for power or try to pull everything. He has tremendous raw power. Some scouts predict he'll be capable of hitting 30+ HRs in his peak. His stat line this season is excellent (.340/.471/.736) with a 14/8 BB to K ratio right now. Only 5 HRs so far, but he should set a career high. He hit 11 HRs last year. The Cubs are probably familiar with his game, and I bet they like him a lot because of his performance in the Cape Cod League. He hit .330/.407/.552 for the Wilmington Sharks in 2016, and then last year hit .351/.399/.513 for the Falmouth Commodores.

I think right now he'll get taken anywhere from 7-20 in the draft. If the Cubs get a chance I think they'll seriously consider taking him. The draft is so loaded in high quality power pitching prospects that maybe the Cubs would select a pitcher even if Bohm is available at #24. Pitching prospects have more inherent risk though so we'll see. I really like Bohm and believe he's one of the top 3 hitting prospects in this draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsgCshaR93A
Last edited by Regular Show on Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:55 pm

Nice to see BA love for Hajjar. He's right up there with Childress, maybe higher since he's the better athlete, as my Liberatore replacement.

ANOTHER HS arm worth lookig at is Alex Kloffenstein from Texas. 6'5" 210 RHP has the projectable frame and an athletic delivery that looks like it has power pitcher traits in the mold of Syndergaard. He's also one of the younger guys in the draft this year if that's a thing and commited to one of my favorite programs in TCU. Up to 94, one of those guys the ball seems to jump out of his hand, can spin a curve...Fast arm (can't get rid of the combo tweets):



Kloffenstein also plays with a good looking bat first SS in Jordan Groshans:



Oh, and there's a HS RH named Owen Meaney! A letter off but still, I like John Irving! The World According to Garp is one of my favorite novels ever. Draft him on his name alone, please, just not with too premium a pick or at the cost of more toolsy HS arms. He's not terrible, probably requires multiple looks to get into but there's some good like a sensible enough long term delivery template that already uses the lower body. He strikes me as a long term reliver but I haven't perceived that as a knock in a long time.
0 x

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 90451
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 569
x 2796

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:43 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Nice to see BA love for Hajjar. He's right up there with Childress, maybe higher since he's the better athlete, as my Liberatore replacement.


I'm always interested in northern prep arms since they generally have less wear and tear on them.

0 x
Image

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 90451
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 569
x 2796

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:43 pm

0 x
Image

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1874
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1500
x 531

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:27 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/974696509869608961?s=21


Well, that's certainly good news. I remember reading an article saying scouts were weary of those HS arms from Georgia like Hankins because they pitch so much during the school year and over the summer.

Yeah, I also like northern prep arms because they seem to have less wear-and-tear.
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:52 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I'm always interested in northern prep arms since they generally have less wear and tear on them.



Agreed on the northern prep arms comment plus Hajjar's just loaded with tools for a LHP. He has alot of the things I liked about Liberatore like frame, athleticism, delivery, extension, pitchability, potential for future fastball command...Liberatore spins the ball better between the two. Hajjar reminds me of Steven Matz coming out of HS.

-----

Casey Mize with another 13 K game. He's got a 51:3 K:BB in 32.2 IP this year while allowing just 15 hits.

-----

Chandler Day is a college arm I like as a non-first:



They have him as a 2019 eligible sophomore in the video but he was a freshman in 2016 and was drafted in 2015. Unless I'm not thinking of something he should be eligible this year. Throw some weight on and see what you get, not an outstanding performer in college nor does he have outstanding stuff as is.
0 x

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 1874
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 1500
x 531

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:45 pm

I guess I'll do another short writeup on a pitcher I like in RHP Kumar Rocker.

Weird name for a baseball player. The kid pitches for North Oconee HS in Georgia and is a Vanderbilt commit. That tells you right away he's a serious pitching prospect. The first thing you notice watching him pitch is how big he is. He's a big dude with a strong lower-half. He's listed at 6'5" and is already 250 lbs. Good athlete and good genes. His father played in the NFL. He may get larger as he gets older, but he seems pretty physically mature right now. Conditioning and watching his weight will be important as he gets older is my guess.

He throws exceptionally hard for a kid in HS. His fastball is consistently hitting the mid-to-upper 90's right now. It's a pretty easy motion too. Not overthrowing or using maximum effort. I've noticed his fastball has very slight running movement. It also occasionally sinks. Not sure if he throws a two-seamer. It's a good motion overall and he starts with his hands over his head. His fastball command is good right now. Sometimes it looks like he's just slinging it up there and other times it looks like he's actually pitching and hitting his spots. The slider doesn't seem that impressive to me, but scouts list it as average to above-average. I haven't seen him throw a good changeup -- he doesn't need one right now. He can literally overpower every HS hitter right now with his fastball. He isn't deceptive and hitters get a good look at his fastball. I wonder if better hitters will square it up more in the future if Rocker doesn't spot the fastball and/or mix up his pitches.

I'm not sure about where I rank all the talented pitchers in this draft. I like all these pitchers in the HS ranks: Carter Stewart, Matthew Liberatore, Mason Denaburg, Ethan Hankins and Cole Winn. Then you add Kumar Rocker to that list and it's a mighty impressive list of prep arms. That group is my Tier 1 for pitching prospects in HS. I might be forgetting someone and some arms might emerge and join that group this spring. I really like Rocker and the velocity on his fastball is very impressive. I'm a little worried he might blow out his arm and require TJS, but that's probably true of every pitcher I listed here.

I'll list my preferences once we get closer to the draft. Right now if Kumar Rocker was available to the Cubs at #24 and they took him I'd be pretty cool with that selection.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byMinBXcyZk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCEXj6moJ4Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_QoO73dDjs
0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 90451
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 569
x 2796

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:03 am

0 x
Image

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5547
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 346
x 443

Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:35 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/vcervinopg/status/976233515976192001?s=21


Chances that he falls to 24? My kind of potential injury faller so far by avoiding surgery.
0 x


Return to “Amateur Baseball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests