2018 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed May 02, 2018 3:35 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Jonathan Mayo mock draft: https://www.mlb.com/news/projections-fo ... =151437456

24. Cubs: Sean Hjelle, RHP, Kentucky

The Cubs have targeted college players up top the last few years and took two pitchers in the first round a year ago. The 6-foot-11 Hjelle won SEC Pitcher of the Year honors as a sophomore and has turned in another solid season with Kentucky.


Not sure how good a mock is when it has Singer at #2 overall but anyways, here are some other names that have been mentioned around here: Triston Casas at 13, Jonathan India at 14, Cole Winn at 15, Ethan Hankins at 18, Trevor Larnach at 21, Ryan Weathers at 22, Kumar Rocker at 23, Noah Naylor at 25 and Connor Scott at 28.


Pass. I don't want anything to do with Hjelle in the 1st. Solid, but not great stuff. Solid, but not great collegiate production. He's absurdly tall so all sorts of things could happen to his mechanics (even though he repeats them fine right now). At this point I'm over taking college pitchers in the 1st round that need things to fall right just so they can be a BOR starter.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed May 02, 2018 3:52 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Jonathan Mayo mock draft: https://www.mlb.com/news/projections-fo ... =151437456

24. Cubs: Sean Hjelle, RHP, Kentucky

The Cubs have targeted college players up top the last few years and took two pitchers in the first round a year ago. The 6-foot-11 Hjelle won SEC Pitcher of the Year honors as a sophomore and has turned in another solid season with Kentucky.


Not sure how good a mock is when it has Singer at #2 overall but anyways, here are some other names that have been mentioned around here: Triston Casas at 13, Jonathan India at 14, Cole Winn at 15, Ethan Hankins at 18, Trevor Larnach at 21, Ryan Weathers at 22, Kumar Rocker at 23, Noah Naylor at 25 and Connor Scott at 28.


Pass. I don't want anything to do with Hjelle in the 1st. Solid, but not great stuff. Solid, but not great collegiate production. He's absurdly tall so all sorts of things could happen to his mechanics (even though he repeats them fine right now). At this point I'm over taking college pitchers in the 1st round that need things to fall right just so they can be a BOR starter.


I'm going to have to disagree respectfully. I know Hjelle isn't a sexy pick, but I think he has a really high floor and a significant upside if he adds more velocity. I'm no scout, but I think he can get stronger and throw a couple ticks harder than he is currently throwing. His command looks really good in every video and highlight and game I've seen -- I really doubt his mechanics will just fall apart.

I do believe there are HS pitching prospects with higher upsides and better stuff in this draft, and probably one of them will be available to the Cubs. I would probably want them to target someone with a really high upside over a safe college pitcher with a high floor, but I also really like Sean Hjelle. I understand where you're coming from...

I know if Hjelle threw harder there's no way he'd fall to the Cubs. I feel like this sometimes when debating the merits of Sean Hjelle:

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed May 02, 2018 4:35 pm

Regular Show wrote:
I'm going to have to disagree respectfully. I know Hjelle isn't a sexy pick, but I think he has a really high floor and a significant upside if he adds more velocity. I'm no scout, but I think he can get stronger and throw a couple ticks harder than he is currently throwing. His command looks really good in every video and highlight and game I've seen -- I really doubt his mechanics will just fall apart.

I do believe there are HS pitching prospects with higher upsides and better stuff in this draft, and probably one of them will be available to the Cubs. I would probably want them to target someone with a really high upside over a safe college pitcher with a high floor, but I also really like Sean Hjelle. I understand where you're coming from...

I know if Hjelle threw harder there's no way he'd fall to the Cubs. I feel like this sometimes when debating the merits of Sean Hjelle:

Image


Just so we are on the same page, has there been an updated scouting report on Hjelle that has him gaining velocity? I've only seen 1 game of his and he was 90-92, and was around 90 much more frequently in the 4th and 5th. The reports I've read have him in that same range. I didn't see one plus secondary pitch, although I've seen reports that he has flashed a plus curve. The changeup is average. I will agree that the command is really good though. He's a strikethrower. But he doesn't miss any bats. K/9 under 8 this year in college is a huge red flag for me. It's a testament to his mediocre stuff if he can't even get collegiate players to swing and miss. You have to be 100% sure that Hjelle is going to be able to gain several ticks on the fastball and that he gets consistency with the curve and change. Just because a guy is tall and has a frame to add on to, doesn't mean the velo with increase. People always kept waiting for Chris Volstad, Jon Rauch and Mark Hendrickson to bump up their velos, but it never happened. Volstad is actually the guy that comes to mind when I see Hjelle. Maybe Chris Young on the high side. Neither are ideal, although early career Chris Young had a season or two that were solid.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 02, 2018 4:53 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
I'm going to have to disagree respectfully. I know Hjelle isn't a sexy pick, but I think he has a really high floor and a significant upside if he adds more velocity. I'm no scout, but I think he can get stronger and throw a couple ticks harder than he is currently throwing. His command looks really good in every video and highlight and game I've seen -- I really doubt his mechanics will just fall apart.

I do believe there are HS pitching prospects with higher upsides and better stuff in this draft, and probably one of them will be available to the Cubs. I would probably want them to target someone with a really high upside over a safe college pitcher with a high floor, but I also really like Sean Hjelle. I understand where you're coming from...

I know if Hjelle threw harder there's no way he'd fall to the Cubs. I feel like this sometimes when debating the merits of Sean Hjelle:

Image


Just so we are on the same page, has there been an updated scouting report on Hjelle that has him gaining velocity? I've only seen 1 game of his and he was 90-92, and was around 90 much more frequently in the 4th and 5th. The reports I've read have him in that same range. I didn't see one plus secondary pitch, although I've seen reports that he has flashed a plus curve. The changeup is average. I will agree that the command is really good though. He's a strikethrower. But he doesn't miss any bats. K/9 under 8 this year in college is a huge red flag for me. It's a testament to his mediocre stuff if he can't even get collegiate players to swing and miss. You have to be 100% sure that Hjelle is going to be able to gain several ticks on the fastball and that he gets consistency with the curve and change. Just because a guy is tall and has a frame to add on to, doesn't mean the velo with increase. People always kept waiting for Chris Volstad, Jon Rauch and Mark Hendrickson to bump up their velos, but it never happened. Volstad is actually the guy that comes to mind when I see Hjelle. Maybe Chris Young on the high side. Neither are ideal, although early career Chris Young had a season or two that were solid.


That’s still the scouting report I’ve seen for Hjelle. He’s kind of disappointed this season.

I took the whole mock with a grain of salt after seeing Singer at 2 but I’m with you on picking another college arm with a 4/5 ceiling in the first.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed May 02, 2018 5:15 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
I'm going to have to disagree respectfully. I know Hjelle isn't a sexy pick, but I think he has a really high floor and a significant upside if he adds more velocity. I'm no scout, but I think he can get stronger and throw a couple ticks harder than he is currently throwing. His command looks really good in every video and highlight and game I've seen -- I really doubt his mechanics will just fall apart.

I do believe there are HS pitching prospects with higher upsides and better stuff in this draft, and probably one of them will be available to the Cubs. I would probably want them to target someone with a really high upside over a safe college pitcher with a high floor, but I also really like Sean Hjelle. I understand where you're coming from...

I know if Hjelle threw harder there's no way he'd fall to the Cubs. I feel like this sometimes when debating the merits of Sean Hjelle:

Image


Just so we are on the same page, has there been an updated scouting report on Hjelle that has him gaining velocity? I've only seen 1 game of his and he was 90-92, and was around 90 much more frequently in the 4th and 5th. The reports I've read have him in that same range. I didn't see one plus secondary pitch, although I've seen reports that he has flashed a plus curve. The changeup is average. I will agree that the command is really good though. He's a strikethrower. But he doesn't miss any bats. K/9 under 8 this year in college is a huge red flag for me. It's a testament to his mediocre stuff if he can't even get collegiate players to swing and miss. You have to be 100% sure that Hjelle is going to be able to gain several ticks on the fastball and that he gets consistency with the curve and change. Just because a guy is tall and has a frame to add on to, doesn't mean the velo with increase. People always kept waiting for Chris Volstad, Jon Rauch and Mark Hendrickson to bump up their velos, but it never happened. Volstad is actually the guy that comes to mind when I see Hjelle. Maybe Chris Young on the high side. Neither are ideal, although early career Chris Young had a season or two that were solid.


Keith Law mentioned how it's possible he could add some more velo down the road. Not a certainty by any means. The scouting reports are all the same, but the reports on the curveball vary. I think it's a plus pitch and I think the changeup is average right now. Chris Young is a good comp. I was thinking of Doug Fister myself.

I guess I'm the high guy on Hjelle. We'll see how he develops in the next couple years.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 02, 2018 7:51 pm

2:38
Keith: Two Questions: Austin Bergner draft stock? Jordyn Adams steam?
2:39
Kiley McDaniel: Adams has some momentum into the 13-22 range as it sounds like multiple teams were targeting him in the comp round so some teams are looking to jump the line. Bergner I saw a month ago and it was just okay, average stuff. More 4th-5th.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Denmaz » Thu May 03, 2018 11:46 am

KLaw's Mock
24. Chicago Cubs: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Thu May 03, 2018 1:22 pm

Denmaz wrote:KLaw's Mock
24. Chicago Cubs: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.


One of the pop up guys this year. I would prefer a hitter, but if they go pitcher, Rodriguez is the type of arm I want.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 03, 2018 2:27 pm

Denmaz wrote:KLaw's Mock
24. Chicago Cubs: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.


I wholeheartedly agree with Law’s reasoning for going for a higher ceiling prospect, especially since there will likely be a dearth of safer college bats since they seem to be getting picked more frequently at the top of the draft.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu May 03, 2018 4:58 pm

Denmaz wrote:KLaw's Mock
24. Chicago Cubs: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.


Weird that Keith Law has Brady Singer going second.. I didn't think he was that highly thought of after his slow start. This mock draft is pretty good overall.

I'm surprised Cole Winn and Kumar Rocker went so low, but MLB teams want to minimize risk so I get why those talented HS arms fell. I also get why Ethan Hankins fell with his shoulder injury scaring some teams. J.T. Ginn is another super talented HS arm, but I'm surprised Keith Law has him going in the first round.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 03, 2018 5:06 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Denmaz wrote:KLaw's Mock
24. Chicago Cubs: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.


Weird that Keith Law has Brady Singer going second.. I didn't think he was that highly thought of after his slow start. This mock draft is pretty good overall.

I'm surprised Cole Winn and Kumar Rocker went so low, but MLB teams want to minimize risk so I get why those talented HS arms fell. I also get why Ethan Hankins fell with his shoulder injury scaring some teams. J.T. Ginn is another super talented HS arm, but I'm surprised Keith Law has him going in the first round.


If you don’t mind, where did Winn and Rocker go? And Connor Scott, who is probably my favorite prep bat who might be around the Cubs pick?
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu May 03, 2018 5:28 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Denmaz wrote:KLaw's Mock


Weird that Keith Law has Brady Singer going second.. I didn't think he was that highly thought of after his slow start. This mock draft is pretty good overall.

I'm surprised Cole Winn and Kumar Rocker went so low, but MLB teams want to minimize risk so I get why those talented HS arms fell. I also get why Ethan Hankins fell with his shoulder injury scaring some teams. J.T. Ginn is another super talented HS arm, but I'm surprised Keith Law has him going in the first round.


If you don’t mind, where did Winn and Rocker go? And Connor Scott, who is probably my favorite prep bat who might be around the Cubs pick?


21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 03, 2018 5:37 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Weird that Keith Law has Brady Singer going second.. I didn't think he was that highly thought of after his slow start. This mock draft is pretty good overall.

I'm surprised Cole Winn and Kumar Rocker went so low, but MLB teams want to minimize risk so I get why those talented HS arms fell. I also get why Ethan Hankins fell with his shoulder injury scaring some teams. J.T. Ginn is another super talented HS arm, but I'm surprised Keith Law has him going in the first round.


If you don’t mind, where did Winn and Rocker go? And Connor Scott, who is probably my favorite prep bat who might be around the Cubs pick?


21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)


Ohh, that would be annoying.

Thanks!
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 03, 2018 7:31 pm



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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 03, 2018 8:27 pm

Without knowing how accurate mock drafts are, probably not at all, I am liking this range of picks Rocker is falling into. Keep looking off today, please!
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Thu May 03, 2018 8:44 pm

If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 03, 2018 10:05 pm

davell wrote:If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.


Meh, give me one top of the heap kind of talent over all the Cliftons, Ceases, and Maples anyday.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu May 03, 2018 10:57 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.


Meh, give me one top of the heap kind of talent over all the Cliftons, Ceases, and Maples anyday.

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Thu May 03, 2018 11:09 pm

I'd prefer a bat. But, if we DO take an arm, I'm fairly positive you can find one, with nice upside, for much, much less than 2/3 of your budget.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 03, 2018 11:20 pm

davell wrote:I'd prefer a bat. But, if we DO take an arm, I'm fairly positive you can find one, with nice upside, for much, much less than 2/3 of your budget.


I mean when it's that general sure but in that case you can probably pull one off after the 10th even with Rocker. I want offense in the draft too and would love the right bat at 24.

Personally I think they get lucky and land Rocker or Weathers plus a HS bat like Casas, Adams, Gray Jr., Groshans, Siani, Naylor, or Denzel Clarke.
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Thu May 03, 2018 11:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 03, 2018 11:26 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.


Meh, give me one top of the heap kind of talent over all the Cliftons, Ceases, and Maples anyday.


Clifton and his $350k bonus doesn't belong in the same sentence and Cease or Maples, who were (at worst) top 10 HS pitching prospects in their respective drafts.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 03, 2018 11:48 pm

Throw LHP Brett Hansen in that small pool of HS arms I really like for the Cubs, maybe swap out Torres.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 04, 2018 4:36 am

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri May 04, 2018 12:48 pm

davell wrote:If Rocker's asking price is 5 Mill, i have less than zero interest in giving ANY singular Pitcher, 2/3's of our draft budget.


I agree that if Rocker's asking price is $5 million I'd pass if I were the Cubs. I disagree about the concept of not wanting to give any single pitcher 2/3 of some hypothetical draft pool. I think in super rare cases I might be willing to do it for exceptional top college pitching prospects.

I think I might be willing to do it in certain rare cases -- Strasburg, Price or even Mark Prior. I think Theo and Jed and Maddon would've handled Prior in a much better way and limit his workload early on. Honestly, those kind of pitching prospects are so rare and they usually go #1/#2 so giving 2/3 of your draft budget might not even cut it.

There is NO pitching prospect like that in this draft. Casey Mize and Kumar Rocker aren't in the same class as Strasburg, Price and Prior. I agree with you Davell, but in theory I might be willing to do it for the right top pitching prospect that comes along once or twice every decade.

Edit: So I just checked the draft pool for this year's draft. The Tigers have the #1 pick and the slot value for that pick is $8,096,300 and the Tigers overall pool amount is $12,414,800. Some quick easy math: $8.1/$12.415 = ~66% or 2/3's of the Tiger's draft budget. So a Strasburg-type talent would already be getting close to that percentage from the team selecting #1 overall. Well, there goes that theory...
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Fri May 04, 2018 3:36 pm

If you've got the top pick, there's no problem with the 2/3's idea. You've still got full slot to hand out to your 2-10 round picks. In other words, it doesn't affect your draft budget at all in terms of other players. You can get that guy, plus a regular draft class on top of that. Hell, you can still skimp on your 7-10 rounders with college seniors, use your overage and pay an additional over slot or two, if you want. Personally, I would do it that way.

If you're drafting 24 though, and pay 5 mill of your 7.5 budget, you've got 2.9 mill left(after overage) for an entire draft class. It's basically equivalent to having to sign college seniors to our 2nd, and one of our 2 comp picks as well, in order to fit the first guy into budget.

There's other ways to skin the cat obviously, but the bottom line is you're using everything to get ONE high school pitcher. Way too risky. And there's not going to be a college guy that falls THAT far, to where it ever makes that situation feasible. But sure, IF a draft class's version of Strasburg or Prior fell to that area? Yeah, I'd take the plunge. Because you're literally inheriting a top 10-15 prospect in the game immediately. A guy like Rocker? MAYBE he's a top 100 guy immediately? That's not even a guarantee.

High school pitchers are way too risky to try that with. Rocker is good. I'd gladly go over for him. But 3.5 or so, would be the max range(our slot is 2.7ish, I think). He's not some super rare talent type. Not even considered the hands down best pitcher in his class. If you DO go the route of punting your class for one guy, he's just got to be much better and much more of a surety than a guy like Rocker.
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