2018 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Fri May 04, 2018 3:38 pm

davell wrote:If you've got the top pick, there's no problem with the 2/3's idea. I said OUR draft budget. If we had 12 mill, with a truly elite guy available, I'd weigh it against other options and possibly jump. You've still got full slot to hand out to your 2-10 round picks. In other words, it doesn't affect your draft budget at all in terms of other players. You can get that guy, plus a regular draft class on top of that. Hell, you can still skimp on your 7-10 rounders with college seniors, use your overage and pay an additional over slot or two, if you want. Personally, I would do it that way.

If you're drafting 24 though, and pay 5 mill of your 7.5 budget, you've got 2.9 mill left(after overage) for an entire draft class. It's basically equivalent to having to sign college seniors to our 2nd, and one of our 2 comp picks as well, in order to fit the first guy into budget.

There's other ways to skin the cat obviously, but the bottom line is you're using everything to get ONE high school pitcher. Way too risky. And there's not going to be a college guy that falls THAT far, to where it ever makes that situation feasible. But sure, IF a draft class's version of Strasburg or Prior fell to that area? Yeah, I'd take the plunge. Because you're literally inheriting a top 10-15 prospect in the game immediately. A guy like Rocker? MAYBE he's a top 100 guy immediately? That's not even a guarantee.

High school pitchers are way too risky to try that with. Rocker is good. I'd gladly go over for him. But 3.5 or so, would be the max range(our slot is 2.7ish, I think). He's not some super rare talent type. Not even considered the hands down best pitcher in his class. If you DO go the route of punting your class for one guy, he's just got to be much better and much more of a surety than a guy like Rocker.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri May 04, 2018 4:10 pm

davell wrote:If you've got the top pick, there's no problem with the 2/3's idea. You've still got full slot to hand out to your 2-10 round picks. In other words, it doesn't affect your draft budget at all in terms of other players. You can get that guy, plus a regular draft class on top of that. Hell, you can still skimp on your 7-10 rounders with college seniors, use your overage and pay an additional over slot or two, if you want. Personally, I would do it that way.

If you're drafting 24 though, and pay 5 mill of your 7.5 budget, you've got 2.9 mill left(after overage) for an entire draft class. It's basically equivalent to having to sign college seniors to our 2nd, and one of our 2 comp picks as well, in order to fit the first guy into budget.

There's other ways to skin the cat obviously, but the bottom line is you're using everything to get ONE high school pitcher. Way too risky. And there's not going to be a college guy that falls THAT far, to where it ever makes that situation feasible. But sure, IF a draft class's version of Strasburg or Prior fell to that area? Yeah, I'd take the plunge. Because you're literally inheriting a top 10-15 prospect in the game immediately. A guy like Rocker? MAYBE he's a top 100 guy immediately? That's not even a guarantee.

High school pitchers are way too risky to try that with. Rocker is good. I'd gladly go over for him. But 3.5 or so, would be the max range(our slot is 2.7ish, I think). He's not some super rare talent type. Not even considered the hands down best pitcher in his class. If you DO go the route of punting your class for one guy, he's just got to be much better and much more of a surety than a guy like Rocker.


Yeah, I agree with you. I think we're in agreement on our draft philosophy. Kumar Rocker is too risky and HS pitchers in general are just way too risky for that kind of strategy. Personally, my favorite HS pitcher in this draft class is Carter Stewart and I still wouldn't offer him more than $3-3.5 mil. I do believe one of these talented HS arms is going to develop into a legit ace/#1 starter, but I have no clue who he is.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri May 04, 2018 4:18 pm

https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... prospects/

The updated Top 500 draft prospects list is available now on baseballamerica's website. The reports are super detailed. Highly recommend everyone take a look if you're interested in the draft.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri May 04, 2018 4:49 pm

Regular Show wrote:https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-top-500-mlb-draft-prospects/

The updated Top 500 draft prospects list is available now on baseballamerica's website. The reports are super detailed. Highly recommend everyone take a look if you're interested in the draft.


Great stuff. Thanks for posting that. I didn't think BA usually got around to that until a week or so before the draft.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri May 04, 2018 8:02 pm

The Rocker $5 million nonsense is moot because it's not a rumor, most seem to believe he's signable. Even then it could be done, there's always plenty of cheap org filling talent, and you walk away with probably the highest upside player in this draft with room to gamble on another player (this is much of the FO that landed Betts for 750K in the 5th during the 2011 draft). Rocker's an ultra rare mix of size, physicality, power, makeup, ahleticism, health, and stuff. Whereas every year there's a Carter Stewart HS arm who can spin a curve and saw a velocity bump his senior spring, or a Winn/Denaburg in that 6'-6"3" range with some velocity and spin, there's rarely a 6'4"-6'5" 240 pounder who holds it easily enough to still project with premium stuff, has been on pro radars as a top talent from the start, and has a pro athlete parent committed to one of the handful top programs.

I think they'd pay up for Rocker, the FO has a long established affinity for Vanderbilt recruits (they've drafted at least 4 and spent 2.3 million to land two of them outside the first), and it wouldn't cost $5 million. I don't see the situatuon as any different from looking to find more money to land Osiel Rodriguez beyond having to hope that Rocker is actually available at 24. The system isn't short on lottery ticket teenagers, the kind they'd blow the budget on if they chose to spread out their spending, and so I believe this year (with the fewest restrictions on amateur spending they've had since 2015) will be most about getting bigger fish like an expensive fallen HS arm (and/or bat) or a Rodriguez among the IFAs.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CubsWin » Fri May 04, 2018 10:04 pm

Regular Show wrote:
21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)

Personally, I might take Regular Show's draft prospect analysis over Keith Law's, but Law has some really nice things to say about Rodriguez:

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS, Nacogdoches, Texas. The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat May 05, 2018 1:10 am

CubsWin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
21. Brewers - Ethan Hankins
22. Rockies - Kumar Rocker
23. Yankees - Cole Winn
24. Cubs - Grayson Rodriguez (so three of my favorite pitchers went right before the Cubs pick in this mock draft :? )

29. Indians - Conner Scott (also interested in Thomas, according to Law) -- I like Conner Scott too and wouldn't mind the Cubs taking him.
30. Dodgers - Alek Thomas (also interested in Scott, according to Law)

Personally, I might take Regular Show's draft prospect analysis over Keith Law's, but Law has some really nice things to say about Rodriguez:

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS, Nacogdoches, Texas. The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.


I appreciate the kind words, but I think you're much better off with Keith Law's analysis and his sources. I've watched some video of Grayson Rodriguez and he is very impressive. He has one of the longest arm swings or arm actions going back that I've ever seen. It looks weird, but the rest of his delivery is fine. The delivery takes awhile so I could see runners stealing a lot of bases on him. Great fastball and a good breaking ball in the videos I watched.

I think he's a fine pitching prospect, but then I listened to him talk during an interview ... and it brought back bad memories. He has a slight Texan accent that reminded me of John Lackey. It isn't that bad, but it sucks when a professional athlete sounds like a redneck.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat May 05, 2018 6:30 pm

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun May 06, 2018 9:54 am

https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/2018-m ... un-shadow/

Another mock draft and we'll be seeing a bunch of these over the next month. This one is okay. They have the Cubs taking Missouri State SS, Jeremy Eierman. I don't see that happening... I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter, but I think it would be someone with a higher ceiling like OF Connor Scott. Also, Jeremy Eierman has hit very poorly during his stints in the Cape Cod League. I'm not that high on Eierman, but I do think he stays at SS and might develop into a plus defender there. I just have serious doubts about the bat.

This mock draft goes pretty deep. Some of the choices are weird, but it's still early.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun May 06, 2018 5:20 pm





This is good news. He's another highly rated HS arm and I like him as a target if he's fully healthy. He's got one of the cleanest deliveries in this draft class among pitchers. This sounds weird, but it's almost too clean lol. He has like zero deception and I'm pretty sure hitters see his fastball pretty well. He seems very athletic and has the ideal build for a pitcher. I'm impressed from watching him in a couple videos and I've read a few articles about his competitive nature/good makeup. I guess a full physical and MRI on his arm/shoulder would be necessary for a team to really commit to him at this point with a high draft pick.

Here's a video from last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UD2Apm-z4yw
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Sun May 06, 2018 8:47 pm

Casey Mize pitched a complete game, 15k, 0bb, 4 hits, 1 run (a homer) on Friday against Vandy
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun May 06, 2018 11:41 pm

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon May 07, 2018 2:37 am

OleMissCub wrote:Casey Mize pitched a complete game, 15k, 0bb, 4 hits, 1 run (a homer) on Friday against Vandy




He's a lock to go 1-1 so this didn't really move the needle. I guess he could demand full slot value from the Tigers now.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon May 07, 2018 2:54 pm

Regular Show wrote:https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/2018-mlb-mock-draft-first-run-shadow/

Another mock draft and we'll be seeing a bunch of these over the next month. This one is okay. They have the Cubs taking Missouri State SS, Jeremy Eierman. I don't see that happening... I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter, but I think it would be someone with a higher ceiling like OF Connor Scott. Also, Jeremy Eierman has hit very poorly during his stints in the Cape Cod League. I'm not that high on Eierman, but I do think he stays at SS and might develop into a plus defender there. I just have serious doubts about the bat.

This mock draft goes pretty deep. Some of the choices are weird, but it's still early.


I hate everything about what they did with the Cubs pick. Not much of an Eierman fan, and their "also considered" list is filled with BOR college starters.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon May 07, 2018 3:40 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/2018-mlb-mock-draft-first-run-shadow/

Another mock draft and we'll be seeing a bunch of these over the next month. This one is okay. They have the Cubs taking Missouri State SS, Jeremy Eierman. I don't see that happening... I could see the Cubs possibly taking a hitter, but I think it would be someone with a higher ceiling like OF Connor Scott. Also, Jeremy Eierman has hit very poorly during his stints in the Cape Cod League. I'm not that high on Eierman, but I do think he stays at SS and might develop into a plus defender there. I just have serious doubts about the bat.

This mock draft goes pretty deep. Some of the choices are weird, but it's still early.


I hate everything about what they did with the Cubs pick. Not much of an Eierman fan, and their "also considered" list is filled with BOR college starters.


It just underscores your point that the college guys available at the end of the first round these days are BOR starters or utility players. I’d rather shoot for a higher ceiling guy, especially in this draft where there should still be a few available.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon May 07, 2018 6:47 pm

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon May 07, 2018 8:08 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.



Well, we can take solace in the fact that we're probably not one of the teams that's contacted him. I don't know why a team would contact him or consider drafting him.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon May 07, 2018 8:11 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.



Well, we can take solace in the fact that we're probably not one of the teams that's contacted him. I don't know why a team would contact him or consider drafting him.


I hope you're right.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon May 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.



Well, we can take solace in the fact that we're probably not one of the teams that's contacted him. I don't know why a team would contact him or consider drafting him.


I hope you're right.


I'm biased and I know that, but this Cubs regime really stresses the concept of "makeup" and having good character. This organization is much more likely to draft someone like Chris Singleton (who is a very impressive young man) than take a chance on someone with questionable makeup like Heimlich.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon May 07, 2018 9:07 pm

I think it’s less his current makeup and most that he’s an actual convicted child molester. Fans at any and every level of ball would never let him forget. If he were to actually make the majors, and a team will probably always hesitate to call him up if he made it so far, he’ll never be popular and any convo will feature the conviction. I can’t see anyone drafting him. Heimlich is completely unmarketable no matter the draft slot. You can’t own the horsefeathers out of being a child molester, a 6 year old ffs, that’s the one people reeeeeeeaaaaaaallllllly are slow to forgive and forget.

OTOH it does speak to his talent that this is a topic for the second draft in a row...
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon May 07, 2018 9:43 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Well, we can take solace in the fact that we're probably not one of the teams that's contacted him. I don't know why a team would contact him or consider drafting him.


I hope you're right.


I'm biased and I know that, but this Cubs regime really stresses the concept of "makeup" and having good character. This organization is much more likely to draft someone like Chris Singleton (who is a very impressive young man) than take a chance on someone with questionable makeup like Heimlich.


Stressing good character?

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon May 07, 2018 9:52 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
I hope you're right.


I'm biased and I know that, but this Cubs regime really stresses the concept of "makeup" and having good character. This organization is much more likely to draft someone like Chris Singleton (who is a very impressive young man) than take a chance on someone with questionable makeup like Heimlich.


Stressing good character?

Image


Lol, well I was referring to the draft and stressing how important makeup is when they're who deciding who to draft and setting up their big board.

I don't like Chapman, but the calculus (talent > makeup concerns) was decided and the trade was necessary for the Cubs to win it all in 2016. I will grant you trading for Chapman doesn't look good when you purport to value high character and makeup as an organization.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon May 07, 2018 11:57 pm

Another guy on my short list is Brett Hansen, a 6'4" LHP formerly commited to Stanford and now commited to Vanderbilt:





His build is along the lines of Blake Snell of the Rays, very lean and projectable with an athletic delivery and lots of potential for excellent fastball command and spin. He has alot of the same general tools, attibutes, and characteristics that made Liberatore a standout last summer as a tall, lean, uber projectable LHSP with arm speed, spin, athleticism and lots of potential for command and control.

----

Oh and the comment on back of the first college guys is pretty on point - relievers and utility guys. I am all about getting a top notch HS talent in this draft that will move through the system with that 2015 IFA group and the other teenaged lottery tickets already in house.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 08, 2018 1:53 pm

So I have a feeling guys like Braxton Ashcraft and Brett Hansen have largely stayed out of the convo because they're thought to be extremely tough signs. That said, I was under the impression that 2017 Stanford commit Michael Mercado was impossible to sign before the Rays got him into their org as a second round pick last year. Both guys are, at least in my opinion, more projectable and tooled up than many of the guys ranked ahead of them (I believe rankings get tainted slightly by perceived signability anyway, hence my affinity for crazy people things like words, video, and KPIs). Ashcraft isn't a natural strike thrower like Mercado, Hansen, or Alec Kloffenstein but he has one of the more projectabe frames in the class, both his fastball/breaking ball get lots of movement, and he's one of the most athletic pitchers in the class as an accomplished HS WR in Texas.



I don't value him as much as a Hasen or Kloffenstein because the command and control is behind those guys, but the potential for significant gains and a power arm once he's focused on baseball is there. Not a candidate for 24 buuuut maybe one of those other 4 inside the top 100.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue May 08, 2018 5:09 pm



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