2018 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 11, 2018 1:34 pm

davell wrote:We're hearing about all these guys that are moving up. But, who is moving down? There's only 15 spots for top 15 guys and it seems like there's 25 of them to me.


Yeah, some interesting and good draftable prospects look to be falling into the 20s. Hopefully a couple of these guys make it to the Cubs and past teams like the Yankees who are picking just in front of them.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri May 11, 2018 2:41 pm

Callis with the mock draft to make Tom's day:

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214?tid=151437456

I do love that he links us solely to higher upside prep players though. As a Cubs fan, it seems Callis generally has at least an inkling of the types of players the Cubs are going after.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri May 11, 2018 3:14 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:24: Cubs: Shane McClanahan - Hey, things work out as the team could use a power LH that might move fast

63: Jameson Hannah - Three year college bat that also hit in the Cape

76: Xavier Edwards

77: Brett Hansen

98: Steven Gingery - Two pre-injured college pitchers!


Yes, please. I would love that draft, as I'm a big fan of both Edwards and Hansen.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 11, 2018 4:06 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:Callis with the mock draft to make Tom's day:

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214?tid=151437456

I do love that he links us solely to higher upside prep players though. As a Cubs fan, it seems Callis generally has at least an inkling of the types of players the Cubs are going after.


And I wouldn’t have complained if they got Turang (who went the pick before) either but Rocker would be great.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Fri May 11, 2018 5:00 pm

Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri May 11, 2018 5:08 pm

davell wrote:Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....


Yeah, I'm curious as well. I'm growing more and more intrigued by Jordan Groshans. I wonder if the Cubs will invite him for a private workout. I think he would go higher in other years with less talent in the 1st round.

Groshans and Scott should definitely be invited to Wrigley for a closer look.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 11, 2018 5:36 pm

davell wrote:Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....


Unless I’m missing something, the link BA tweeted today was the mock from Tuesday with the Cubs picking prep catcher Anthony Seigler.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Fri May 11, 2018 5:45 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Anyone got BA's mock from today? Cubs pick anyway.....


Unless I’m missing something, the link BA tweeted today was the mock from Tuesday with the Cubs picking prep catcher Anthony Seigler.


Oh figures lol. They retweet stuff from the past often. I forgot their last one was this week.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat May 12, 2018 6:12 pm



I bet one of those five or so teams is Texas. Texas gave Matt Bush a second chance (or third chance) after the horrible things he did.

If I were a betting man I would put good money on the Cubs NOT being in that group...
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat May 12, 2018 6:16 pm





Of those three players:

Highest floor for me is Madrigal. Highest ceiling is Bohm easily -- a Kris Bryant comp is high praise.

I like India too, but I like Bohm and Madrigal more.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat May 12, 2018 6:24 pm





I don't know if India is good enough to play SS at the MLB level. I doubt it, but I didn't think DeJong was capable of playing SS at the highest level either. I haven't seen enough of India to really make a case either way.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat May 12, 2018 8:09 pm

I noticed Noah Naylor at 16 for Callis' mock. There's a small group of HS players I think would "make" the draft for me at 24:

Kumar Rocker
Ryan Weathers - I think these two wil be the best HS pitchers from this year, and it's a good group.
Parker Meadows
Triatom Casas
Noah Naylor

I'd except all these guys are gone by 63 or unsignable outside of 24. I almost included Jordan Groshans.

Here's a breaking ball from Rocker's start against Wilcox:

Imagevia Imgflip GIF Maker
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun May 13, 2018 10:08 am



Trevor Larnach hit a HR off Kris Bubic, who topped out at 94 in this game but also sucked. Larnach looks more solid than spectacular as a bat prospect
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun May 13, 2018 9:33 pm



I like Kyler Murray, but he needs to drop his football aspirations before I'd commit to drafting him with a high draft pick. I know he's a great athlete, but you need those reps in the minors.

Sucks you can't take a chance on this kind of guy in the late rounds anymore. You could give him a mil to sign and then see how this lottery ticket works out. You can't really do that with the current draft pools/penalties in place right now.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun May 13, 2018 9:42 pm

Regular Show wrote:

I like Kyler Murray, but he needs to drop his football aspirations before I'd commit to drafting him with a high draft pick. I know he's a great athlete, but you need those reps in the minors.

Sucks you can't take a chance on this kind of guy in the late rounds anymore. You could give him a mil to sign and then see how this lottery ticket works out. You can't really do that with the current draft pools/penalties in place right now.


Well, any team that does draft him high and sign him will force him to stick to baseball. That seems like one reason most don’t think he’ll sign this year





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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon May 14, 2018 2:44 pm

Regular Show wrote:



I don't know if India is good enough to play SS at the MLB level. I doubt it, but I didn't think DeJong was capable of playing SS at the highest level either. I haven't seen enough of India to really make a case either way.


He never wowed me at SS, but he wasn't glaringly bad there either. He looked really dang good at 3B. I would absolutely be fine with him getting a shot to stick at SS. I'm fairly salty that the Cubs have no chance at him anymore.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Tue May 15, 2018 2:10 pm

Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/
Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue May 15, 2018 2:16 pm

davell wrote:Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/
Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.


The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/

It’s a good read.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Tue May 15, 2018 2:25 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/
Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.


The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/

It’s a good read.


I had it posted with a bad link, then forgot to put it back in, then I guess you posted it while I was redoing it lol.

I'm not sure what I feel about Kowar. I like Walker. I also like quite a few of the HS Pitchers taken after us. But, it sounds like college is going to be our direction in the 1st.

With the 2 comp picks, I really will be disappointed if we don't do one really huge, fun thing with a HS arm, or 2 Estrada type moves. We've got the overall budget to be very interesting.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue May 15, 2018 3:03 pm

davell wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/
Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.


The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/

It’s a good read.


I had it posted with a bad link, then forgot to put it back in, then I guess you posted it while I was redoing it lol.

I'm not sure what I feel about Kowar. I like Walker. I also like quite a few of the HS Pitchers taken after us. But, it sounds like college is going to be our direction in the 1st.

With the 2 comp picks, I really will be disappointed if we don't do one really huge, fun thing with a HS arm, or 2 Estrada type moves. We've got the overall budget to be very interesting.


Yeah, with as many picks in the top 100 as they have, this mock seems to be going with the strategy of one overslot prep guy later. Hopefully that kid is more Cease and less Hudson. I’d rather take the high ceiling guy in the first when you have the most options.

Interesting to see Rodriguez fall to 34 and Casas to 36 with no bonus demands or injuries. Vasil to 39 and Hankins 42 due to injury, Rocker to 38 due to bonus demands.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Tue May 15, 2018 5:04 pm

How the money gets allotted is key obviously. I've tried playing around with that some every year. Because it's easier to do THAT than project players. We won't know most bonus demands and there's always some top 30-50 guys sitting there on Day 2. There's usually even a few seven figure bonuses given out in the 6-10 rounds and there's always some decent bonuses handed out after the 10th round too.

Our Draft Budget- 7.517,100
5% Money- 375,855
Total Budget-7.892,955

1st Round- 2.724M
Personally, I'd go with the HS player here, that's taking slot. But, I understand the strategy of taking the college guy first. Slot value being the EXPECTED monetary outlay. However, I can see a scenario where we take a guy expected to go a bit later, maybe top 50,and get him for 2 mill or slightly under that. Same scenario we did with Schwarber, just in a different pick radius. An unlikely option would be to go over slot on a HS kid in round 1. A 4th Option is to just take slot thru out and use your 5% money, and your 8-10 Round money, to go over slot for a kid in the middle rounds. We've done this multiple times and it may be safest. But, I want to explore the other chances......

1st Option- 2.724M(can be either HS or college kid)
2nd Option- 2M on a college kid, with upside. Hannah?
3rd Option- 3.5M on a HS kid

2nd Round- 1.060,900
Solid money for sure. This could go towards either HS or College, BUT it's gone College every year outside of 2012 for us. Personally, I'd suspect yet another college pitcher that pitched well at the end of the year, ala Rob Z, Abbott, and Stinnett. Chance of a college position player too here, almost definitely an up the middle guy.

1st Option-1.060,900
2nd Option- 2Mill(This goes to a HS kid you like a lot and spread your top 2 pick money evenly between 2 guys.
3rd Option- 1,060,900

Comp Picks after 2nd Round- 775,100 and 762,900

I think this is likely where we go with a big overslot. The 1st Option, where we've went slot in both rounds 1 and 2, lends for this scenario. Option 2 does as well, you've just taken a different path. Option 3? It's be really hard. But, we'll give it a go and see how funky we can turn that option.....

1st Option- 1.5M and 762,900
2nd Option- 2M and 762,900
3rd Option- 1.5M and 1.5M

Total money spent so far..... 5.322,900 Slot

1st Option-6.047,800
2nd Option-6.762,900
3rd Option-7.560,900

3rd Round-570,600

I find it unlikely this is when we go big, I'd suspect a college arm here. In all 3 scenarios, we've got to do this anyway. In the 3rd one, we've got to lay off actually.

1st Option-572,900(6.620,800)
2nd Option-572,900(7.335,800)
3rd Option-200,000(7.760,900)

4th Round-426,100

Money has been spent in each of these 3 options. While in the "go slot everywhere" option, NOW is when you could conceivably grab your low 7 figure HS kid, that's still out there. Itd just cost your 5% money and your 9th and 10th Rounders need to be College senior signs.

1st Option-426,100(7,046,900 Total)
2nd Option-30,000(college senior) 7,365,800 Total
3rd Option-20,000(college senior)7,780,900 Total

5th Round-317,600

There's really no money to spend. You can take slot a few more times with the 1st Option. 2nd Option needs to skimp one more time right now. The 3rd Option is signing college seniors throughout.

1st Option-317,600(7,364,500 Total)
2nd Option-30,000(7,395,800)
3rd Option-20,000(7,800,900)

6th Round-245,600

Slot or seniors. Only choice.

1st Option-245,600(7,610,100 Total)
2nd Option-245,600(7,641,400 Total)
3rd Option-20,000(7,820,900 Total)

7th-10th Rounds-634,300 combined

1st Option-282,855 to spend
2nd Option-251,555 to spend
3rd Option-72,445 to spend


It's VERY likely, that we'll play it safe and just take slot guys at each stop, then use the 5% money and a couple of senior signs between 7-10 and get one guy to excite us.

But, I would look at each of these other 3 scenarios hard, if I were the Cubs. Strength in a small few, but extra upside. Not to mention, we've done a fairly admirable job with college seniors.

Option 1- 2.724M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 762,900, 572,900, 426,100 as your 6 relatively decent sized bonuses

Option 2- 2M, 2M, 2M, 762,900, 572,900 as your 5 big bonuses

Option 3- 3.5M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 1.5M as your 4 big bonuses

Anyway, it's a puzzle. It all depends on bonus demands. But, I like each of those scenarios more than the playing it safe route. It's too hard to find a diamond in the rough, with slot guys outside the 1st. Just take a few high upside guys and take it easy in the back half of the first 10 Rounds.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 15, 2018 5:33 pm

The bit written on the Cubs for that Fangraphs mock has me thinking the Cubs have been mum and are staying out of draft rumors this year. I think they will fall under the value over demographics group, the premium is always on talent and performance rather than HS/college with this FO.

Canning’s exactly the kind of guy they should draft after taking a high upside prep player first. Cheap, signable, competent enough....

I don’t know what to think of Kowar. I like the arm and body enough for anywhere but 24 given his results in college.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue May 15, 2018 5:50 pm

I’m hoping one of the HS guys still has a TJS injury and falls
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue May 15, 2018 5:58 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I’m hoping one of the HS guys still has a TJS injury and falls


I suspect Denaburg and Vasil will need TJS once they’re pros.

This mock has Mason Denaburg going to the Nationals at 27 (makes sense, this is the organization that drafted Giolito) and Mike Vasil 39 to Arizona. Ethan Hankins also fell to Colorado at 42 in this mock but he supposedly got a clean bill of health after shoulder “fatigue” (I’m not at all interested in picking an already-risky prep pitcher who has shoulder problems).
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 15, 2018 6:08 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I’m hoping one of the HS guys still has a TJS injury and falls


Pass on pre-injured pitching with the first pick plus I think a healthy one falls
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