How the money gets allotted is key obviously. I've tried playing around with that some every year. Because it's easier to do THAT than project players. We won't know most bonus demands and there's always some top 30-50 guys sitting there on Day 2. There's usually even a few seven figure bonuses given out in the 6-10 rounds and there's always some decent bonuses handed out after the 10th round too.
Our Draft Budget- 7.517,100
5% Money- 375,855
1st Round- 2.724M
Personally, I'd go with the HS player here, that's taking slot. But, I understand the strategy of taking the college guy first. Slot value being the EXPECTED monetary outlay. However, I can see a scenario where we take a guy expected to go a bit later, maybe top 50,and get him for 2 mill or slightly under that. Same scenario we did with Schwarber, just in a different pick radius. An unlikely option would be to go over slot on a HS kid in round 1. A 4th Option is to just take slot thru out and use your 5% money, and your 8-10 Round money, to go over slot for a kid in the middle rounds. We've done this multiple times and it may be safest. But, I want to explore the other chances......
1st Option- 2.724M(can be either HS or college kid)
2nd Option- 2M on a college kid, with upside. Hannah?
3rd Option- 3.5M on a HS kid
2nd Round- 1.060,900
Solid money for sure. This could go towards either HS or College, BUT it's gone College every year outside of 2012 for us. Personally, I'd suspect yet another college pitcher that pitched well at the end of the year, ala Rob Z, Abbott, and Stinnett. Chance of a college position player too here, almost definitely an up the middle guy.
2nd Option- 2Mill(This goes to a HS kid you like a lot and spread your top 2 pick money evenly between 2 guys.
3rd Option- 1,060,900
Comp Picks after 2nd Round- 775,100 and 762,900
I think this is likely where we go with a big overslot. The 1st Option, where we've went slot in both rounds 1 and 2, lends for this scenario. Option 2 does as well, you've just taken a different path. Option 3? It's be really hard. But, we'll give it a go and see how funky we can turn that option.....
1st Option- 1.5M and 762,900
2nd Option- 2M and 762,900
3rd Option- 1.5M and 1.5M
Total money spent so far..... 5.322,900 Slot
I find it unlikely this is when we go big, I'd suspect a college arm here. In all 3 scenarios, we've got to do this anyway. In the 3rd one, we've got to lay off actually.
Money has been spent in each of these 3 options. While in the "go slot everywhere" option, NOW is when you could conceivably grab your low 7 figure HS kid, that's still out there. Itd just cost your 5% money and your 9th and 10th Rounders need to be College senior signs.
1st Option-426,100(7,046,900 Total)
2nd Option-30,000(college senior) 7,365,800 Total
3rd Option-20,000(college senior)7,780,900 Total
There's really no money to spend. You can take slot a few more times with the 1st Option. 2nd Option needs to skimp one more time right now. The 3rd Option is signing college seniors throughout.
1st Option-317,600(7,364,500 Total)
Slot or seniors. Only choice.
1st Option-245,600(7,610,100 Total)
2nd Option-245,600(7,641,400 Total)
3rd Option-20,000(7,820,900 Total)
7th-10th Rounds-634,300 combined
1st Option-282,855 to spend
2nd Option-251,555 to spend
3rd Option-72,445 to spend
It's VERY likely, that we'll play it safe and just take slot guys at each stop, then use the 5% money and a couple of senior signs between 7-10 and get one guy to excite us.
But, I would look at each of these other 3 scenarios hard, if I were the Cubs. Strength in a small few, but extra upside. Not to mention, we've done a fairly admirable job with college seniors.
Option 1- 2.724M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 762,900, 572,900, 426,100 as your 6 relatively decent sized bonuses
Option 2- 2M, 2M, 2M, 762,900, 572,900 as your 5 big bonuses
Option 3- 3.5M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 1.5M as your 4 big bonuses
Anyway, it's a puzzle. It all depends on bonus demands. But, I like each of those scenarios more than the playing it safe route. It's too hard to find a diamond in the rough, with slot guys outside the 1st. Just take a few high upside guys and take it easy in the back half of the first 10 Rounds.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.