2018 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Bruno7481 » Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:25 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1002442538718916609?s=21









For anyone who doesn’t know, Borden is (well, was...he just graduated) one of my students/players.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:44 am

All those guys seem like potentially signable HSers too...They're older for the class with two guys turning 19 this year, and probably the best program any of the three is commited to is Louisville (Alabama and St. Johns are the others). Ras is a 6'4" RHP who also switch hits and plays 3B, he hit 94 last summer during thr AFLAC games.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:41 pm

Matt Dorey:

“We’re keeping all components of this draft pool alive, whereas in the last couple years I think we purposely took a deeper look at the pitching and really focused on that, because we know the draft history tells us that pitching comes from everywhere. And we didn’t have a lot of flexibility financially to get creative at the very top and really dip into the high school market that extensively.

“This 2018 draft is really interesting because I think the draft strength is really built around some high-upside high school pitching and position players. If we choose to go that route, we can definitely play in that market. I’m not saying we will, but we have the option to do so to a certain degree.”


https://theathletic.com/377441/2018/06/ ... ars-draft/
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:12 pm

Bruno7481 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1002442538718916609?s=21









For anyone who doesn’t know, Borden is (well, was...he just graduated) one of my students/players.


Just curious, but have scouts asked you questions about him? If so, is it general stuff or do they get pretty in-depth with their digging?
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:54 pm

Sickels’ site is running a mock today. The Cubs’ mock GM took Rocker, Steele Walker, and Konnor Pilkington.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:19 pm

They took Tanner Dodson at 78 and HS OF Ryder Green at 98. I would be ok with this if you've got money to grab another solid HS arm in the 4th, with plenty available. Even if it means senior signs in 7-10 or 8-10.

Walker falling that far is a steal. Personally, I'd be ok with taking a guy like him, Jenista, Hannah or someone at a discount at 24 and going big on HS guys at 62, 77, and 78.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:32 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Matt Dorey:

“We’re keeping all components of this draft pool alive, whereas in the last couple years I think we purposely took a deeper look at the pitching and really focused on that, because we know the draft history tells us that pitching comes from everywhere. And we didn’t have a lot of flexibility financially to get creative at the very top and really dip into the high school market that extensively.

This 2018 draft is really interesting because I think the draft strength is really built around some high-upside high school pitching and position players. If we choose to go that route, we can definitely play in that market. I’m not saying we will, but we have the option to do so to a certain degree.”


https://theathletic.com/377441/2018/06/ ... ars-draft/


Hint hint about this year's draft strategy, the financial flexibility offered this year and the potential to go big early has been mentioned multiple times
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:40 pm

Yeah, I kind of think we go HS in the 1st at this point. I just don't want to go way over slot at 24, when there's going to be many other HS kids with upside to take with our next few picks too. No one likely available at 24 is worth more than slot plus overage, AT MOST, in my mind. And if it comes down to a group of guys like Denaburg, Rocker, Rodriguez, Schnell, Edwards, Hankins, Turang, Naylor, and Groshans, then I'm taking whoever will sign for slot or less. I'd be happy with any of that group and extra money to spend later.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:39 pm

davell wrote:Yeah, I kind of think we go HS in the 1st at this point. I just don't want to go way over slot at 24, when there's going to be many other HS kids with upside to take with our next few picks too. No one likely available at 24 is worth more than slot plus overage, AT MOST, in my mind. And if it comes down to a group of guys like Denaburg, Rocker, Rodriguez, Schnell, Edwards, Hankins, Turang, Naylor, and Groshans, then I'm taking whoever will sign for slot or less. I'd be happy with any of that group and extra money to spend later.


Meh, there's hundreds of guys who fit due just how nebulous upside is and they'll be able fit in a couple who fit that description no matter what they do at 24. Between the guys they have coming in for workouts, guys with weaker commits to relatively uncompetitive programs and college players with bit upside like that LHP Lopez, and the words from FO personnel about how this budget makes them players for the higher upside HS guys up top it seems like they're aiming for a potential stud. The chances of finding one, while not impossible, shrinks dramatically outside the first. Underslotting up top's gotten them a couple 2-3 WAR players in Schwarber and Happ, and neither has actually had a 2-3 WAR season yet, and those were with top 10 picks...

OTOH I'm just pretending to read tea leaves aka talking out my ass. The budget + ML roster's lack of urgent need + the general mix on the farm (domestic bit players, most of the long term upside in IFAs) + the organizational philosophy of having a group of guys who move through the ranks close together (a top prep should catch up to an Amaya or Ademan sooner rather than latet)...
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:50 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:Yeah, I kind of think we go HS in the 1st at this point. I just don't want to go way over slot at 24, when there's going to be many other HS kids with upside to take with our next few picks too. No one likely available at 24 is worth more than slot plus overage, AT MOST, in my mind. And if it comes down to a group of guys like Denaburg, Rocker, Rodriguez, Schnell, Edwards, Hankins, Turang, Naylor, and Groshans, then I'm taking whoever will sign for slot or less. I'd be happy with any of that group and extra money to spend later.


Meh, there's hundreds of guys who fit due just how nebulous upside is and they'll be able fit in a couple who fit that description no matter what they do at 24. Between the guys they have coming in for workouts, guys with weaker commits to relatively uncompetitive programs and college players with bit upside like that LHP Lopez, and the words from FO personnel about how this budget makes them players for the higher upside HS guys up top it seems like they're aiming for a potential stud. The chances of finding one, while not impossible, shrinks dramatically outside the first.

OTOH I'm just pretending to read tea leaves aka talking out my ass


No, I'm reading the same tea leaves. Where we differ, I guess, is I'm ok with ANY of that group at 24. I don't see enough separation to pay more for a singular kid in that group. I'd take the cheapest one, so I have more for the lotto tickets later.

If the FO decides otherwise and pays up for a guy in the 1st, I'll be excited. Because I figure they obviously are sold on a guy. But, if they're of the opinion that these guys(maybe even add a few I forgot) are close, then I'd hope they save money for more kids later.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:00 pm

davell wrote:No, I'm reading the same tea leaves. Where we differ, I guess, is I'm ok with ANY of that group at 24. I don't see enough separation to pay more for a singular kid in that group. I'd take the cheapest one, so I have more for the lotto tickets later.

If the FO decides otherwise and pays up for a guy in the 1st, I'll be excited. Because I figure they obviously are sold on a guy. But, if they're of the opinion that these guys(maybe even add a few I forgot) are close, then I'd hope they save money for more kids later.


Ah, I probably wouldn't even include half that group in the same tier of talent or upside. Rocker and Hankins (top of the draft types esp Rocker, worth overslotting), then Edwards/Naylor/Turang/Groshans (slot), and then Rodriguez/Schnell (clear underslot guys)
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:32 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:No, I'm reading the same tea leaves. Where we differ, I guess, is I'm ok with ANY of that group at 24. I don't see enough separation to pay more for a singular kid in that group. I'd take the cheapest one, so I have more for the lotto tickets later.

If the FO decides otherwise and pays up for a guy in the 1st, I'll be excited. Because I figure they obviously are sold on a guy. But, if they're of the opinion that these guys(maybe even add a few I forgot) are close, then I'd hope they save money for more kids later.


Ah, I probably wouldn't even include half that group in the same tier of talent or upside. Rocker and Hankins (top of the draft types esp Rocker, worth overslotting), then Edwards/Naylor/Turang/Groshans (slot), and then Rodriguez/Schnell (clear underslot guys)


I'm assuming you're referring to Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Schnell? I don't know why you have them listed as clear underslot guys... They go in the first round in many, many mock drafts and I doubt they'll be there when the Cubs select again after their first round pick. I don't think you're saving much $$$ for later by taking Rodriguez/Schnell.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:45 pm

Regular Show wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:No, I'm reading the same tea leaves. Where we differ, I guess, is I'm ok with ANY of that group at 24. I don't see enough separation to pay more for a singular kid in that group. I'd take the cheapest one, so I have more for the lotto tickets later.

If the FO decides otherwise and pays up for a guy in the 1st, I'll be excited. Because I figure they obviously are sold on a guy. But, if they're of the opinion that these guys(maybe even add a few I forgot) are close, then I'd hope they save money for more kids later.


Ah, I probably wouldn't even include half that group in the same tier of talent or upside. Rocker and Hankins (top of the draft types esp Rocker, worth overslotting), then Edwards/Naylor/Turang/Groshans (slot), and then Rodriguez/Schnell (clear underslot guys)


I'm assuming you're referring to Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Schnell? I don't know why you have them listed as clear underslot guys... They go in the first round in many, many mock drafts and I doubt they'll be there when the Cubs select again after their first round pick.


In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if Rodriguez goes higher than any of the others listed there.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:09 pm

Regular Show wrote:I'm assuming you're referring to Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Schnell? I don't know why you have them listed as clear underslot guys... They go in the first round in many, many mock drafts and I doubt they'll be there when the Cubs select again after their first round pick.


That's just a personal valuation of their talent and it's my way of saying I would not even kinda sorta consider either at 24. I've consistently said Rodriguez's big booster is that he's very signable while having enough tools and percieved upside development ceiling potential to sell as a first round talent. If a team in the first is looking for quantity rather than quality approach while still taking a prep, he's of interest. Schnell's the same thing but a bat, newer to the first in mocks with signability consistently factored into his jump.

I'm not saying anything wild and crazy here - year after year guys rise and fall on signability rather than talent. I doubt you'd find many in baseball who actually believe Rodiguez or Schnell are better talents than a Rocker, Hankins, or Parker Meadows buuuuut they're most definitely going to be easier to negotiate with.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:23 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Regular Show wrote:I'm assuming you're referring to Grayson Rodriguez and Nick Schnell? I don't know why you have them listed as clear underslot guys... They go in the first round in many, many mock drafts and I doubt they'll be there when the Cubs select again after their first round pick.


That's just a personal valuation of their talent and it's my way of saying I would not even kinda sorta consider either at 24. I've consistently said Rodriguez's big booster is that he's very signable while having enough tools and percieved upside development ceiling potential to sell as a first round talent. If a team in the first is looking for quantity rather than quality approach while still taking a prep, he's of interest. Schnell's the same thing but a bat, newer to the first in mocks with signability consistently factored into his jump.

I'm not saying anything wild and crazy here - year after year guys rise and fall on signability rather than talent. I doubt you'd find many in baseball who actually believe Rodiguez or Schnell are better talents than a Rocker, Hankins, or Parker Meadows buuuuut they're most definitely going to be easier to negotiate with.


BA and MLB.com both have Schnell ahead of Meadows. BA by ~20 spots.

MLB.com has Rodriguez ahead of Rocker.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:39 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA and MLB.com both have Schnell ahead of Meadows. BA by ~20 spots.

MLB.com has Rodriguez ahead of Rocker.


Oh, I'm aware of that. All of them have changed their rankings like a half dozen times this spring alone and I've long expressed a general disdain for rankings. Hell, MLB.com's own writeups give Rocker a 70/60 on his fastball/breaking ball to Rodriguez's 60/55, Schnell average raw power to Meadows' above average, so there are non-talent reasons that factor into these things.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 03, 2018 12:41 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA and MLB.com both have Schnell ahead of Meadows. BA by ~20 spots.

MLB.com has Rodriguez ahead of Rocker.


Oh, I'm aware of that. All of them have changed their rankings like a half dozen times this spring alone and I've long expressed a general disdain for rankings. Hell, MLB.com's own writeups give Rocker a 70/60 on his fastball/breaking ball to Rodriguez's 60/55, Schnell average raw power to Meadows' above average, so there are non-talent reasons that factor into these things.


The point is that your comments that those two are underslots at 24 and inferior prospects to Meadows and Rocker is certainly not obvious.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 03, 2018 12:49 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The point is that your comments that those two are underslots at 24 and inferior prospects to Meadows and Rocker is certainly not obvious.


I'm willing to drop the underslot thing to "wouldn't touch either at 24, they're for a different draft strategy than what I believe the Cubs will do" and of course stand by both not being better prospects than Rocker/Meadows on talent.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:09 am

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:45 am

Another one:





Have we ever had this much pre-draft info on private workouts?
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:40 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Another one:





Have we ever had this much pre-draft info on private workouts?


Nope. God bless Yagyu and his twitter searching.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:04 pm

Wes is an absolute beast.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby UK » Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:17 pm

I was more impressed with Thomas than I expected to be.

I wasn't going into it thinking there would be power potential but there is.

He'll be a plus hitter, plus defense, plus runner with a 50 arm and probably 45 power. He has an advanced approach.


Tough sign as he's a two sport athlete at TCU as well as his dad is the strength guy for the Sox.

His comp to me is Ellsbury.

I would not be upset if the Cubs got him.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:36 pm

UK wrote:I was more impressed with Thomas than I expected to be.

I wasn't going into it thinking there would be power potential but there is.

He'll be a plus hitter, plus defense, plus runner with a 50 arm and probably 45 power. He has an advanced approach.


Tough sign as he's a two sport athlete at TCU as well as his dad is the strength guy for the Sox.

His comp to me is Ellsbury.

I would not be upset if the Cubs got him.


Nice.

Have you seen Schnell?
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:01 pm

Thomas being a significant two sport guy, TCU's a quality program for both too, really sticks with me. Thanks for that, UK.
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