2018 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby craig » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:39 am

No idea what the Cubs strategy will be, in terms of under-or-over-slotting at 24. I imagine they can only have contingent strategies that depend on player evaluation and availability.

Mocks vary widely from one analyst to another, and likewise change substantially by the month (or week) for a given media analyst. Jim Callis interview noted that there seems to be an even wider variance in valuation on guys this draft than most others.

I don't know the players or how the Cubs value guys, but several thoughts:
1. It's a lot more likely to get a star at 24 than in the 60-80 range.
-***IF** there's a guy they evaluate really favorably, I'd think over-slotting would make sense, even if they need to underslot on one or more of the 2nd-round picks. Going BPA 1st-round makes a ton of sense, even if it costs $$$ for 2nd-rounders.
2. I'd not be surprised if there was somebody the Cubs ranked among their top-15 guys still on the board at 24. (Given how differently teams evaluate guys.)
3. Going BPA may not mean over-slot. Cubs do their own evaluation. Just because a guy demands over-slot doesn't means Cubs scout him better.
4. Cubs strategy will allow for many possibilities; what actually happens depends on scouting evals and on who's left.
5. Many promising prospects are willing to sign for slot in rounds 1 or 2, rather than going to (or back to) college. So going overslot in round 1 does not preclude getting really good top-80 guys in round 2, even at-or-below slot. Likewise Monday may draft really well even if they take nothing but slot guys.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:57 am

I feel like with our first five picks (24, 62, 77, 78, and 98) we're going to target 3 hitters and 2 pitchers. Obviously, things change and the draft can go in any number of different directions so this might not happen...

Probably, 3 of those players will be college performers (1 pitcher, 2 hitters) most likely. One prep hitter and one prep arm, but that might change. I could see the Cubs targeting two prep hitters if they take one at 24. There should be a better balance between pitchers and hitters this year.

The Cubs system definitely leans more towards pitching prospects right now and that's a dangerous place to be at. The majority of these pitching prospects are going to flame out or have little impact, especially with our history of developing pitchers right now.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby UK » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:12 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
UK wrote:I was more impressed with Thomas than I expected to be.

I wasn't going into it thinking there would be power potential but there is.

He'll be a plus hitter, plus defense, plus runner with a 50 arm and probably 45 power. He has an advanced approach.


Tough sign as he's a two sport athlete at TCU as well as his dad is the strength guy for the Sox.

His comp to me is Ellsbury.

I would not be upset if the Cubs got him.


Nice.

Have you seen Schnell?


No. From what I heard, he's a sandwich guy.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:29 am

Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.

They said there's 5 or 6 tough signs, among high schoolers. Rocker wants around top 15 money. But, they didn't act as if he wouldn't get it either. Mike Siani, a UVA guy, evidently is a tough sign. As is Matt McLain, if he's not taken in the top 40, or given that type of money.....

If McClanahan drops, it's because teams in the 10-25 range didn't really see him much. He was a top 5 guy most of the year, so many teams weren't at his starts when he was going well. Now that he's struggling, the middle teams have seen him, but don't have enough looks from his good starts, to likely just take a shot..... Hence, why if he drops, it's probably pretty far.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:30 am

By the way I was looking at a very thorough list of all the prospects in this draft and there are some GREAT baseball names in this draft class:

Cross Factor (real name), Jake Slaughter, Mike Million, Giovanni Dingcong (for a second I thought his last name was DINGDONG and I knew we had to draft him, but it was not meant to be), Brock and Blake Deatherage (just get rid of the 'e' in the middle of your last name guys and fulfill your destiny as Sith lords), Steele Walker, Seth Beer, Tradd James (WTF kind of name is Tradd???), Owen Sharts and some foreign kid who just moved to the US named Suq Madiq.




































PS - You probably figured this one out, but that last name on the list is not a real player/prospect lol. Colbert fans know it well...
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:57 am

davell wrote:Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.


Yeah, this stuff on Virginia is one of the main reasons so many people are critical of the draft prospects of so many Virginia players.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:39 am

BA on Rocker a couple days ago:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... m-georgia/

2. Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga. (BA Rank: 13)

HS • 6-4 • 240 • R-R •

Rocker is one of the most well-known prep names in the 2018 high school class thanks to exceptional stuff—headlined by a fastball that routinely reaches 98 mph—and a physically imposing 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame. Despite his big build, Rocker is athletic for his size and has the bloodlines to back it up, as his father, Tracy, played football at Auburn before a brief NFL career with the Washington Redskins. When it comes to pure stuff, there’s perhaps no pitcher in the high school class who can match Rocker pitch for pitch. His fastball is regularly in the low to mid-90s and reaches the upper levels when he needs it. The pitch is delivered with such ease that is sometimes looks like he’s just playing catch. After that, Rocker has a pair of secondary offerings that have both looked plus, with a power breaking ball—some scouts call it a curve and some dub it a slider—that’s hard and tight in the low to mid-80s with late-breaking action. Rocker’s changeup is firm and has been up to 91 mph this spring, with fading action that allows the pitch to fall off the table at its best. Just grading out the tools, Rocker should be the top high school player in the class, but he got hit around more than his stuff would indicate last summer, especially when his fastball flattened out and stayed up in the zone. Some evaluators wonder if he just lacks deception and whether adding a two-seam fastball with more movement would help him down the road. The reports from his spring season with North Oconee High in Bogart, Ga., have all been exceptional and while he did deal with a minor hamstring injury that pushed back one of his starts, Rocker has done everything evaluators wanted him to do. Moving forward, the Vanderbilt commit needs to be on top of managing his weight as a bigger-bodied pitcher and he’ll need to take steps forward with the command of his entire repertoire once he gets to levels where his stuff alone isn’t overwhelming. Overall, Rocker has the elements to be a future front-of-the-rotation arm and should be a first-round pick.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:26 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:BA on Rocker a couple days ago:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... m-georgia/

2. Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga. (BA Rank: 13)

HS • 6-4 • 240 • R-R •

Rocker is one of the most well-known prep names in the 2018 high school class thanks to exceptional stuff—headlined by a fastball that routinely reaches 98 mph—and a physically imposing 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame. Despite his big build, Rocker is athletic for his size and has the bloodlines to back it up, as his father, Tracy, played football at Auburn before a brief NFL career with the Washington Redskins. When it comes to pure stuff, there’s perhaps no pitcher in the high school class who can match Rocker pitch for pitch. His fastball is regularly in the low to mid-90s and reaches the upper levels when he needs it. The pitch is delivered with such ease that is sometimes looks like he’s just playing catch. After that, Rocker has a pair of secondary offerings that have both looked plus, with a power breaking ball—some scouts call it a curve and some dub it a slider—that’s hard and tight in the low to mid-80s with late-breaking action. Rocker’s changeup is firm and has been up to 91 mph this spring, with fading action that allows the pitch to fall off the table at its best. Just grading out the tools, Rocker should be the top high school player in the class, but he got hit around more than his stuff would indicate last summer, especially when his fastball flattened out and stayed up in the zone. Some evaluators wonder if he just lacks deception and whether adding a two-seam fastball with more movement would help him down the road. The reports from his spring season with North Oconee High in Bogart, Ga., have all been exceptional and while he did deal with a minor hamstring injury that pushed back one of his starts, Rocker has done everything evaluators wanted him to do. Moving forward, the Vanderbilt commit needs to be on top of managing his weight as a bigger-bodied pitcher and he’ll need to take steps forward with the command of his entire repertoire once he gets to levels where his stuff alone isn’t overwhelming. Overall, Rocker has the elements to be a future front-of-the-rotation arm and should be a first-round pick.


There was nothing new in that report. I was literally mentioning some of the things in that write-up with David earlier. I am concerned about his conditioning and how he'll need to manage his weight going forward. Not too concerned, but it is a factor.

Dude, we all like Kumar Rocker here. I feel like you're trying way too hard on selling him or convincing us why he must absolutely be the GUY the Cubs select at 24 when there are plenty of good choices (and maybe better choices depending on evaluations). I like Rocker, but HS arms have a high bust rate so maybe taking a college arm or a prep bat is the smarter play. I'm definitely NOT in favor of paying overslot at 24 for Rocker if that's what it takes to sign him.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:45 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.


Yeah, this stuff on Virginia is one of the main reasons so many people are critical of the draft prospects of so many Virginia players.


The pitching thing is fair. There's a reason why Lynch is a guy who I think might be a better pro than a collegian. He doesn't really crouch all that much. When Lynch is on ... he looks DAMN good. He looks like a borderline TOR arm type talent. When Lynch is on, it's at least a plus fastball and 2 above average (slider/change), and there have been times where the secondary looks like two plus pitches. There's been a few other pitchers that have come through the line that didn't really do the crouch, and it's not like Kuhn has held them back from reaching their potential. They've actually been aggressively pushing Lynch since Day 1 since they saw the top end talent that many didn't really identify.

All that said, he's been so inconsistent throughout his career. There is very little chance I would want him in the first round. I'm not sure I even love him in the 2nd either ... I think there's a huge boom/bust risk factor that comes with him. There's really only one UVA guy this year that I think deserves to go in the top 2 rounds, and that's Jake McCarthy, assuming he passes his physicals.

____

I think, and I didn't hear the podcast, that the critique on UVA hitters is a bit of an oversimplification to say they teach the Stanford swing. There's been a wide variance of hitters and styles since O'Connor and Co. has gotten to UVA. Pavin Smith was always this disciplined hitter who didn't go for the bomb. The Cubs hitting staff sorta made Adam Haseley - he was a nice two-way player, but he really took off over his 3 years. That said, a few years back, they had guys like Brandon Downes and Jarrett Parker come through the line, completely different hitter profiles. Now, the one thing to be said about UVA coaches is that they actively look for athletic guy that try to play to the dimensions of their field. Davenport is a pitcher's park, and they don't make any bones about looking for guys that will understand what to do in that park.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:00 pm







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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:06 pm



I don't believe this rumor at all. Joey Bart going #1 and Winn going #2 and Mize falling all the way to the Phillies?

Maybe if his medicals raise some concerns, but on pure talent Mize should go 1-1.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:37 pm

Regular Show wrote:when there are plenty of good choices (and maybe better choices depending on evaluations). I like Rocker, but HS arms have a high bust rate so maybe taking a college arm or a prep bat is the smarter play.


At 24 the bust and impact rates for these three demographics aren't a reason to avoid HS pitchers more or most from the little freely available analysis out there. Picking outside the top ten, where college bats are the clear group to favor, really evens the playing field on what pool of players represents the lowest risk and/or highest ceiling. I'm also not as optimistic about prospects as a whole and believe much less that there's a large of number of players representing a relatively safe road to becoming a high impact player.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:46 pm

Regular Show wrote:

I don't believe this rumor at all. Joey Bart going #1 and Winn going #2 and Mize falling all the way to the Phillies?

Maybe if his medicals raise some concerns, but on pure talent Mize should go 1-1.


Keith Law had Bart going 1.1 in his final mock today.

You have to balance all the misinformation that comes out today with all the talk for months that the Tigers don’t want to pick a pitcher first. Mize falling to the Phillies is something that was roadmapped in the last Fangraphs mock so it is definitely something that’s been on radars before today.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:51 pm

Joint Callis and Mayo mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-for ... -279699234

24. Cubs
Mayo: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- This continues to be a good landing spot for the prep catcher who has made headlines because of his switch-pitching skills as an amateur. He'll be a solid all-around catching prospect at the next level.
Callis: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- Another team homing in on bats, Chicago could go for Groshans, Larnach, Lavigne, Meadows, McCarthy and Schnell. If Virginia left-hander Daniel Lynch goes in the first round, this is the most likely destination.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:54 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:

I don't believe this rumor at all. Joey Bart going #1 and Winn going #2 and Mize falling all the way to the Phillies?

Maybe if his medicals raise some concerns, but on pure talent Mize should go 1-1.


Keith Law had Bart going 1.1 in his final mock today.

You have to balance all the misinformation that comes out today with all the talk for months that the Tigers don’t want to pick a pitcher first. Mize falling to the Phillies is something that was roadmapped in the last Fangraphs mock so it is definitely something that’s been on radars before today.


I'm shocked. I get taking a hitter, but I don't know about taking Joey Bart 1-1. I know he's a safe choice and probably won't bust, but this strikes me as a reach.

EDIT: I got confused and mixed up the Giants and Tigers place in the draft. Kind of tired...
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:03 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Joint Callis and Mayo mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-for ... -279699234

24. Cubs
Mayo: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- This continues to be a good landing spot for the prep catcher who has made headlines because of his switch-pitching skills as an amateur. He'll be a solid all-around catching prospect at the next level.
Callis: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- Another team homing in on bats, Chicago could go for Groshans, Larnach, Lavigne, Meadows, McCarthy and Schnell. If Virginia left-hander Daniel Lynch goes in the first round, this is the most likely destination.


So Callis, Mayo and Law all have the Cubs taking Anthony Seigler in their latest mock drafts?

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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:13 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Joint Callis and Mayo mock: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-for ... -279699234

24. Cubs
Mayo: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- This continues to be a good landing spot for the prep catcher who has made headlines because of his switch-pitching skills as an amateur. He'll be a solid all-around catching prospect at the next level.
Callis: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Ga.) HS -- Another team homing in on bats, Chicago could go for Groshans, Larnach, Lavigne, Meadows, McCarthy and Schnell. If Virginia left-hander Daniel Lynch goes in the first round, this is the most likely destination.


So Callis, Mayo and Law all have the Cubs taking Anthony Seigler in their latest mock drafts?

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Thanks, I don’t have ESPN Insider.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:43 pm



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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:18 pm

Not sure if it's been posted yet, but here is Fangraphs' sorted list:

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all&team=all
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:19 pm

davell wrote:Just listened to Kiley and Longenhagen's podcast. Some interesting things in it....

UVA teaches pitchers to do this crouch thing and also throw a ton of breaking balls. Lunch has risen boards, in part, because he's been very obstinate when it comes to these things. Kiley says there's an advisor of a high end recruit, currently set to go to UVA, that's advising him not to. With hitting, they evidently teach the Stanford swing, no loft, just trying to poke things thru infields......

Not really a college baseball guy, just repeating info.

They said there's 5 or 6 tough signs, among high schoolers. Rocker wants around top 15 money. But, they didn't act as if he wouldn't get it either. Mike Siani, a UVA guy, evidently is a tough sign. As is Matt McLain, if he's not taken in the top 40, or given that type of money.....

If McClanahan drops, it's because teams in the 10-25 range didn't really see him much. He was a top 5 guy most of the year, so many teams weren't at his starts when he was going well. Now that he's struggling, the middle teams have seen him, but don't have enough looks from his good starts, to likely just take a shot..... Hence, why if he drops, it's probably pretty far.


They also said Conner Scott to the Marlins at 13 is about as much of a lock as you can get in the teens.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:49 pm

I still find it so odd that Mize might not go #1. From a fluff piece on Mize on ESPN:

Tigers general manager Al Avila has declined to comment publicly on which player the team has in mind for the top pick, but he recently observed that Mize's secondary pitches are more advanced than Justin Verlander's when he turned pro out of Old Dominion University in 2004.


http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2367 ... -mlb-draft

Obviously, Mize doesn't have the high-octane fastball Verlander has, but I agree with the fact that his secondary pitches are really advanced. He has a legit 4 pitches in his arsenal. If the Tigers really do choose Bart over Mize I think they'll come to regret it (assuming Mize stays healthy).
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:02 pm



On the night before the Draft, word began to circulate within the industry that for the right price, Murray would agree to focus on baseball after playing football this fall for the Sooners. If true, he could command a bonus of $3 million or more.

Other teams believe that the Reds (whose first two picks are at Nos. 5 and 48) and the Padres (whose top two selections are at Nos. 7 and 38) are the leading contenders to cut a discount deal in the first round so they can splurge on Murray with their second choice. Officials with both Cincinnati and San Diego denied that's the case.


Who knows anymore with this guy?
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:39 pm

Regular Show wrote:

On the night before the Draft, word began to circulate within the industry that for the right price, Murray would agree to focus on baseball after playing football this fall for the Sooners. If true, he could command a bonus of $3 million or more.

Other teams believe that the Reds (whose first two picks are at Nos. 5 and 48) and the Padres (whose top two selections are at Nos. 7 and 38) are the leading contenders to cut a discount deal in the first round so they can splurge on Murray with their second choice. Officials with both Cincinnati and San Diego denied that's the case.


Who knows anymore with this guy?


Would not mind the Reds doing that at all. Murray has struck out like 25% of the time this year. Big questions about that hit tool for me.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:44 pm

Lol:

Aaron C.: Appreciate your candidness on the challenge of putting out mock drafts. Since you’ve been doing this, has a team ever made a first round pick of someone who wasn’t anywhere on your radar?
Keith Law: Yes. Cubs with Hayden Simpson – not on my top 100, and someone had to remind me who that was when it happened, because the little I had on him was so bad that I had dismissed him from my mind. Same year, Yanks took Cito Culver, whom I knew but expected wouldn’t go till the 4th round. Rangers took Kevin Matthews in 2011 at the end of the first or early comp and he was another guy who wouldn’t have been on my top 200 if i’d gone that far. I had virtually nothing on him either; he was released after 2015 and walked almost a man an inning in the minors.
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Re: 2018 Draft Thread

Postby UK » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:24 pm

PG has the Cubs selecting Xavier Edwards SS/2B prep out of FL commit to Vandy.

In the mock they have Seigler going 23rd with Rocker and Denaburg still on the board.

Edwards is probably the best athlete and probably the best defender with the arm strength which will put him at 2B.

I would prefer others based on reports.
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