When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:21 am

Davell wrote:
My guess is 6 college pitchers, 2 HS pitchers, and 2 college position players inside the top 10 rounds, with 2 senior signs......


Ah, I think you forgot they don't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this yr buddy lol. Only 8 picks in the first 10 rounds this time...
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby davell » Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:33 am

Regular Show wrote:
Davell wrote:
My guess is 6 college pitchers, 2 HS pitchers, and 2 college position players inside the top 10 rounds, with 2 senior signs......


Ah, I think you forgot they don't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this yr buddy lol. Only 8 picks in the first 10 rounds this time...


Ha! Geez, I'll take it down to 4 college pitchers. Although, I could AMOST see them using every pick on pitching in this draft, especially with the large discrepancy in IFA between hitting and pitching. Still praying for a late Gutierrez(or Bolanos) signing somehow.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:44 pm

McLeod pre-draft interview:

TB: What's the size of that board going to look like with pick 104 as your first one this year?

JM: That is something we're still trying to determine. It's hard because there's some volatility once you get into the sandwich area with teams going off in different directions. It's tough to say, 'These 70 guys won't be here.' We'll probably move all the guys we think will be gone by the competitive-balance picks. We still might move 40 slam-dunk guys for us off. Picking through some of the other guys, I would imagine we'll try to have about a list of 50 or 60 names. You don't want to limit it too much; you don't want to be surprised. There are so many things that can happen when you're picking where we are.

The thing for us, we're going to have that whole first day. It'll be different. We'll be sitting there pulling names off the board, but it's also going to allow us to clear all those names, regroup, and get ready for Day Two


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=29424
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:56 pm

No way he'd fall to 104, would he? (Word is it is PEDs.) He doesn't have a college commitment so there goes his leverage.

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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Regular Show » Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:26 am

Whoa...SS Delvin Perez failed a drug test?! I read that he was falling down draft boards leading up to the big day, but I thought that was due to questionable makeup (I guess a failed drug test confirms that) and an okay hit tool. I mean I've read his physical tools and athleticism are incredible -- Why would he feel the need to take PEDs? I guess the PEDs could improve his overall strength and speed, but that still seems strange to me.

Is the possible failed drug test over recreational drug use like marijuana or something? Cause if that's the case I could care less over a failed drug test and would take him. I'm sure other teams would feel the same way. Hmm, I hope we get clarity on his unique status on Thursday.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:30 am

Regular Show wrote:Whoa...SS Delvin Perez failed a drug test?! I read that he was falling down draft boards leading up to the big day, but I thought that was due to questionable makeup (I guess a failed drug test confirms that) and an okay hit tool. I mean I've read his physical tools and athleticism are incredible -- Why would he feel the need to take PEDs? I guess the PEDs could improve his overall strength and speed, but that still seems strange to me.

Is the possible failed drug test over recreational drug use like marijuana or something? Cause if that's the case I could care less over a failed drug test and would take him. I'm sure other teams would feel the same way. Hmm, I hope we get clarity on his unique status on Thursday.


BA confirmed it was PEDs.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Regular Show » Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:14 am

Well, I'm conflicted now lol. I'd still probably take him if he were available at #104, but I don't think he'll fall that far down. Some team is gonna get a bargain since he has no leverage. Wish we had a late 1st round pick now...
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:39 pm

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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby stitchface » Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:02 pm

davell wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Davell wrote:
My guess is 6 college pitchers, 2 HS pitchers, and 2 college position players inside the top 10 rounds, with 2 senior signs......


Ah, I think you forgot they don't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this yr buddy lol. Only 8 picks in the first 10 rounds this time...


Ha! Geez, I'll take it down to 4 college pitchers. Although, I could AMOST see them using every pick on pitching in this draft, especially with the large discrepancy in IFA between hitting and pitching. Still praying for a late Gutierrez(or Bolanos) signing somehow.



Curious about the ratio of college to high school pitchers. Wouldn't the Cubs take a more high risk approach drafting in later rounds?
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Regular Show » Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:51 pm

Stitchface wrote:
Curious about the ratio of college to high school pitchers. Wouldn't the Cubs take a more high risk approach drafting in later rounds?


It will be majority college and/or JUCO selections among pitchers. They probably will select maybe 1 or 2 HS pitchers, but not more than that. HS pitching prospects carry more risk, but also a higher reward potentially down the road. However, they also usually carry a higher price tag as well (the highly rated HS pitching prospects, anyway) or have strong commitments to collegiate programs. That's why you'll see the ratio skew more towards the college side.

Also, college and JUCO pitching prospects tend to advance through the minors a little bit faster than the HS crop.

I wish we could go after the high-risk/high-reward targets, but the Cubs simply don't have a large enough draft pool to afford that strategy this yr. It's too expensive and is a very risky approach if you don't balance it with "safer" high floor draft prospects.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Cub Your Enthusiasm » Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:25 pm

Regular Show wrote:
PetermanRealityTour wrote:
Any Chicago-Area Prospects worth a high pick?

Usually like to go to a couple playoff games with the top guys throwing


Like TomtheBombadil wrote U of I RHP - C. Sedlock is the highest rated prospect in the draft and is very impressive. I doubt the Cubs will get a chance to draft him since he'll probably go in the 1st round.

I believe RHP - Z. Burdi is actually from the Chicago suburbs (I could be wrong?) so he would be the highest rated draft prospect from the Chicago-land area? The HS C - Cooper Johnson is a defensive wizard behind the plate and will most likely be taken in the 2nd round. There is also a RHP - M. Dietz who pitches downstate at a small CC (John A. Logan) who will probably go in rounds 3-4.


6-6 guy that throws 96. Could be an interesting pick..
http://thesouthern.com/news/opinion/edi ... b68f5.html
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:47 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The Cubs total draft pool is $2,245,100. Unsurprisingly, that's the smallest pool in the draft.

3. $573,900
4. $429,790
5. $321,800
6. $241,000
7. $186,000
8. $173,800
9. $162,300
10. $156,600


I think you can scrounge up $300-$500k in savings with this pool, at best. I can see them taking one prep arm in the first ten rounds and it'll be someone more in Trevor Clifton's price range (I know he was picked after the 10th round but I'm referring to the ~$250k over slot he got). I can't see them going with 4-5 senior signs to swing a 7-figure slot when they're already missing their best two picks, so no Hudson, Sands or Steele types.

But maybe they're way more creative and aggressive than I think they can be.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:49 pm

Almost put this in the Theo thread in Baseball discussions but let's do it here:



With Almora's debut, this means that in this decade(2010-2015):

Theo has had 9 of 13 1st rounders make the majors, and 2-3 of those that haven't still have a fair shot of getting there(Happ, Johnson, maybe Blackburn)

McLeod has had 6 of 10 1st rounders make the majors in that span, with the same 2-3 having a chance, and an 11th pick that wasn't signed.

For a point of comparison, in the same span Neal Huntington is 2 for 9, with 5 having a chance to join them(mostly HS draftees in A ball) plus Appel going unsigned, and Mozeliak is 4 for 15, with ~7 having a chance to also make it.

If you look at it by impact the math is pretty good too:

Theo: 15.2 bWAR, 1.16 per pick
McLeod: 14.6, 1.46 per signed pick
Huntington: 9.2(all Cole), 1.02 per signed pick
Mozeliak: 12.0, 0.8 per pick
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:09 pm

Scout.com 3-round mock draft has the Cubs taking the top junior college prospect with their first pick:

Scout.com wrote:104. Chicago Cubs JoJo Romero LHP Yavapai JC

The top JUCO player all year for the draft is Romero, who dominated the level as the ace on the national championship winning Yavapai JC baseball team. He is undersized, but the Cubs have never had an issue with size. The left-hander has command issues, as well, which make some think his future might be in the bullpen. Still, it's the 104th pick in the draft. Being able to get any player who has a chance to help, let alone a four-pitch left-hander who doesn’t cost a quarter of your pool, is nice.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:42 pm

can't wait til the Cubs shock everyone and take the top juco bat instead.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:49 pm

BA 5.2 Mock has some crazy jumps and falls. Sedlock all the way up to #17, Rutherford to #19,Manning down to #29 and Groome to #12. While Braxton Garret is up to 7 and Quantrill is 8. Amazing to see Groome listed as the 7th pitcher taken now.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:05 pm

I wonder if the guy sitting at our table there tonight is anyone of importance or just the Costanza of the organization
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:29 pm

Screw pitchers and all that, but if the Braves manage to actually keep Anderson and Allard alive those guys will be pretty awesome. I think both are truly outstanding talents that are dangerous only because they are teenage pitchers.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby NotSoSober » Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:38 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I wonder if the guy sitting at our table there tonight is anyone of importance or just the Costanza of the organization

i think it's actually ted lilly?
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:43 pm

Brewers made the first truly sensible pick in the draft by taking Ray.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:09 am

Yeah, the Cubs representative is T. Lilly lol. I'd rather have K. Wood there to represent the Cubs, but whatever.

I can't believe LHP pitching prospect J. Groome is falling down the board so far. Man there must be serious makeup concerns or something.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:12 am

The White Sox trying to copy us by taking C - Z. Collins lol. He won't be as good as K. Schwarber, but he should develop into a good player. I have no idea whether he can stick at C (read mixed things).

Curious to see how far SS - D. Perez falls today...
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:14 am

Props to the White Sox for that pick.
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby Cub Your Enthusiasm » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:23 am

Great value for Boston
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Re: When do we start talking 2016 Draft?

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:34 am

Cub Your Enthusiasm wrote:Great value for Boston


Sounds like he'll demand a huge chunk of Boston's pool $$

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