2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:53 am

Gmoney08 wrote:LOL at anyone doubting Theo/Jed/Jason at this point. Even if he went 0 for this entire draft I would trust him.

His drafts with the Cubs and the Red Sox before obviously have garnered a ton of trust.

Ive seen the Bryant, Schwarber and Happ picks all criticized...

Pretty sure Mookie Betts pick was heavily criticized as well.


I don't recall Mookie Betts the pick being criticized. It was a 5th round pick. I do recall Mookie Betts the prospect getting critiqued somewhat, but I really don't recall much criticism over a 5th round pick.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:09 am

I don't particularly love or hate this draft. All scouting staffs have good and bad drafts.

I doubt we've gotten significant savings so far ... Hoerner's the only one that sounds like it could be a decent chunk, and Davis/Roederer might both cost more than slot to get signed. I wouldn't be surprised if Davis/Roederer costs ended up balancing out, or being more than, any Hoerner savings.

I like that they wanted to address their positional depth charts, and I like that they went for some upside in those two picks, but both seem fairly risky. Davis reminds me of a prep version of Daniel Johnson. Richan seems like a steady, high floor guy who should move up the ladder.

Going to be curious what happens in the next few rounds. At this juncture, it seems a bit unlikely that the Cubs will be in the mix for any huge name slipping, as signability makes that seem unlikely. Wouldn't be surprised if they started loading up on some college guys that could potentially move fast.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:26 am

Gmoney08 wrote:LOL at anyone doubting Theo/Jed/Jason at this point. Even if he went 0 for this entire draft I would trust him.

His drafts with the Cubs and the Red Sox before obviously have garnered a ton of trust.

Ive seen the Bryant, Schwarber and Happ picks all criticized...

Pretty sure Mookie Betts pick was heavily criticized as well.


Huh, this seems weird to me...

Who is this "Gmoney08" guy? I suspect this might be a fake account/burner account designed to boost the reputations of Theo/Jed/Jason.

Is this your account here Jed Hoyer?





I don't want you to get in trouble. You probably need to delete this account and do this now:

Image

Sorry Jed!
Last edited by Regular Show on Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:26 am

I like the Brennen Davis pick. Lots of upside potential development ceiling
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:52 pm

davell wrote:

Oh well.


Sigh
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby bukie » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:03 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:35 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:LOL at anyone doubting Theo/Jed/Jason at this point. Even if he went 0 for this entire draft I would trust him.

His drafts with the Cubs and the Red Sox before obviously have garnered a ton of trust.

Ive seen the Bryant, Schwarber and Happ picks all criticized...

Pretty sure Mookie Betts pick was heavily criticized as well.


There was zero criticism of the Mookie Betts pick because 1. It was a 5th round pick, and 2. It came before draft spending limits.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:43 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:At this point in the draft, don’t expect a prep pick to be underslot, even if he’s picked much higher than normal he consensus rankings.

Quite surprising to see them go with a “raw” prospect this high. Goes against their MO.


Thus far this draft has Wilken trying to be the smartest guy in the room written all over it.
the difference being that these guys may actually be the smartest guys in the room, while wilken was only the smartest guy in the room when having one on one meetings with Hendry.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubinNY » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:49 pm

PackLandVA wrote:
Splendid Splinter wrote:First comp that came to mind to me for Hoerner was Michael Young.


First guy I thought of was Bob Horner.

Too many youngsters here to appreciate the high quality of this post.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Outshined_One » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:57 pm



His Cubs entry is apropos:

24. Chicago Cubs — Nico Hoerner, SS

I mean, seriously, what do you expect from draft grades? I hate to lecture you for another year, but these picks will succeed and fail because of imperceptibly small margins. An adjustment that shaves a tenth of a second off a hitter’s reaction time. A delivery that gets smoother with repetition and superior muscle memory. You can’t possibly expect me to know which of these 18-year-olds has the kind of athleticism that will allow them to overcome the obstacles professional baseball will throw at them. Some of them went to their first rock concert, like, 24 months ago.

With that written, I guarantee that Nico Hoerner will collect 1,738 hits in his major league career.

Grade - B+


I'd be okay with Hoerner doing that.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:57 pm

I love the job Theo + crew have done as much as anyone.

However, I feel like they are getting more praise than they deserve for the drafting job they've done with the Cubs. I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the first round college hitter. But what else have they done in the draft with the Cubs that gives anyone confidence that they can identify which toolsy HS OF they should pick? Is it DJ Wilson or someone else I'm missing? Why should I have any more confidence in Richan than the litany of similar pitchers they've taken?

This is their seventh draft with the Cubs. We've got a pretty long track record for this front office. I think there is room to question their draft strategy without being outrageous when they go so far away from industry consensus.

Obviously, none of us know how this will all pan out. The Cubs have far more resources than we do to evaluate these guys. The industry guys absolutely suffer from some level of groupthink when it comes to the rankings, which leaves room for individual teams to have a much better read on true talent level for certain prospects.

All that said, I still find this draft...puzzling so far. The comments leading up to the draft were that they "had to nail" this time because they probably won't have this many high picks again for a while. These picks (past the first round) look pretty risky from the outside. I'll just hope they've been able to see things that others haven't, I guess.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:16 pm



1738 hits for Hoerner is something to look forward to.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubinNY » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:17 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:
Ive seen the Bryant, Schwarber and Happ picks all criticized...


lol, you need another group of friends.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:20 pm

Tim wrote:I love the job Theo + crew have done as much as anyone.

However, I feel like they are getting more praise than they deserve for the drafting job they've done with the Cubs. I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the first round college hitter. But what else have they done in the draft with the Cubs that gives anyone confidence that they can identify which toolsy HS OF they should pick? Is it DJ Wilson or someone else I'm missing? Why should I have any more confidence in Richan than the litany of similar pitchers they've taken?

This is their seventh draft with the Cubs. We've got a pretty long track record for this front office. I think there is room to question their draft strategy without being outrageous when they go so far away from industry consensus.

Obviously, none of us know how this will all pan out. The Cubs have far more resources than we do to evaluate these guys. The industry guys absolutely suffer from some level of groupthink when it comes to the rankings, which leaves room for individual teams to have a much better read on true talent level for certain prospects.

All that said, I still find this draft...puzzling so far. The comments leading up to the draft were that they "had to nail" this time because they probably won't have this many high picks again for a while. These picks (past the first round) look pretty risky from the outside. I'll just hope they've been able to see things that others haven't, I guess.


There's a matter of degrees here. None of these are the Tyler Colvin pick, and the Cubs have a bunch of picks outside the hardened consensus and in the squishy 20-100 area where there's like 250 guys who can make a case for being worth it, plus the added dimension of signability/pools. They took two toolsy HS OF who had their stock depressed a bit by non-worrisome injuries and who have ceilings worthy of the ~50-75 range that they were drafted, Miami and UCLA aren't exactly recruiting idiots either. If you want to criticize the Richan pick I can at least understand that, given the lack of top line results or premium stuff and the anecdotal likelihood he's not underslot. But the woe is me act because they popped a couple guys who are among the most likely to have large swings on rankings(HS OF who missed a chunk of their senior year) on top of a college bat in the 1st round doesn't resonate. Criticize the drafting outcomes all you want, but the reflexive anger that they didn't draft as if they just averaged out MLB/BA/PG's draft rankings and went down the list is silly.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:35 pm

Wilcox is going to school. Probably for the best. now I don't have to force a "Poet Laureate of the West" joke.

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby r_mack » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:52 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:LOL at anyone doubting Theo/Jed/Jason at this point. Even if he went 0 for this entire draft I would trust him.

His drafts with the Cubs and the Red Sox before obviously have garnered a ton of trust.

Ive seen the Bryant, Schwarber and Happ picks all criticized...

Pretty sure Mookie Betts pick was heavily criticized as well.

I mean, Theo, Jed, & McLeod have hit on the top picks for sure but their overall drafts have been mediocre at best which is really disappointing given what the Red Sox used to do. Of course, the system has changed since then and the money matters way less now.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:56 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:I love the job Theo + crew have done as much as anyone.

However, I feel like they are getting more praise than they deserve for the drafting job they've done with the Cubs. I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the first round college hitter. But what else have they done in the draft with the Cubs that gives anyone confidence that they can identify which toolsy HS OF they should pick? Is it DJ Wilson or someone else I'm missing? Why should I have any more confidence in Richan than the litany of similar pitchers they've taken?

This is their seventh draft with the Cubs. We've got a pretty long track record for this front office. I think there is room to question their draft strategy without being outrageous when they go so far away from industry consensus.

Obviously, none of us know how this will all pan out. The Cubs have far more resources than we do to evaluate these guys. The industry guys absolutely suffer from some level of groupthink when it comes to the rankings, which leaves room for individual teams to have a much better read on true talent level for certain prospects.

All that said, I still find this draft...puzzling so far. The comments leading up to the draft were that they "had to nail" this time because they probably won't have this many high picks again for a while. These picks (past the first round) look pretty risky from the outside. I'll just hope they've been able to see things that others haven't, I guess.


There's a matter of degrees here. None of these are the Tyler Colvin pick, and the Cubs have a bunch of picks outside the hardened consensus and in the squishy 20-100 area where there's like 250 guys who can make a case for being worth it, plus the added dimension of signability/pools. They took two toolsy HS OF who had their stock depressed a bit by non-worrisome injuries and who have ceilings worthy of the ~50-75 range that they were drafted, Miami and UCLA aren't exactly recruiting idiots either. If you want to criticize the Richan pick I can at least understand that, given the lack of top line results or premium stuff and the anecdotal likelihood he's not underslot. But the woe is me act because they popped a couple guys who are among the most likely to have large swings on rankings(HS OF who missed a chunk of their senior year) on top of a college bat in the 1st round doesn't resonate. Criticize the drafting outcomes all you want, but the reflexive anger that they didn't draft as if they just averaged out MLB/BA/PG's draft rankings and went down the list is silly.

Are you talking about me or someone else with the "reflexive anger"? Because I'm certainly not angry. Like I say, I think there's room to disagree with the picks without being "angry".
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:09 pm

Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:I love the job Theo + crew have done as much as anyone.

However, I feel like they are getting more praise than they deserve for the drafting job they've done with the Cubs. I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the first round college hitter. But what else have they done in the draft with the Cubs that gives anyone confidence that they can identify which toolsy HS OF they should pick? Is it DJ Wilson or someone else I'm missing? Why should I have any more confidence in Richan than the litany of similar pitchers they've taken?

This is their seventh draft with the Cubs. We've got a pretty long track record for this front office. I think there is room to question their draft strategy without being outrageous when they go so far away from industry consensus.

Obviously, none of us know how this will all pan out. The Cubs have far more resources than we do to evaluate these guys. The industry guys absolutely suffer from some level of groupthink when it comes to the rankings, which leaves room for individual teams to have a much better read on true talent level for certain prospects.

All that said, I still find this draft...puzzling so far. The comments leading up to the draft were that they "had to nail" this time because they probably won't have this many high picks again for a while. These picks (past the first round) look pretty risky from the outside. I'll just hope they've been able to see things that others haven't, I guess.


There's a matter of degrees here. None of these are the Tyler Colvin pick, and the Cubs have a bunch of picks outside the hardened consensus and in the squishy 20-100 area where there's like 250 guys who can make a case for being worth it, plus the added dimension of signability/pools. They took two toolsy HS OF who had their stock depressed a bit by non-worrisome injuries and who have ceilings worthy of the ~50-75 range that they were drafted, Miami and UCLA aren't exactly recruiting idiots either. If you want to criticize the Richan pick I can at least understand that, given the lack of top line results or premium stuff and the anecdotal likelihood he's not underslot. But the woe is me act because they popped a couple guys who are among the most likely to have large swings on rankings(HS OF who missed a chunk of their senior year) on top of a college bat in the 1st round doesn't resonate. Criticize the drafting outcomes all you want, but the reflexive anger that they didn't draft as if they just averaged out MLB/BA/PG's draft rankings and went down the list is silly.

Are you talking about me or someone else with the "reflexive anger"? Because I'm certainly not angry. Like I say, I think there's room to disagree with the picks without being "angry".


No, not you. Several reactions from others if you read back the last 5 pages.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:16 pm

Tim wrote:I love the job Theo + crew have done as much as anyone.

However, I feel like they are getting more praise than they deserve for the drafting job they've done with the Cubs. I'm more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the first round college hitter. But what else have they done in the draft with the Cubs that gives anyone confidence that they can identify which toolsy HS OF they should pick? Is it DJ Wilson or someone else I'm missing? Why should I have any more confidence in Richan than the litany of similar pitchers they've taken?

This is their seventh draft with the Cubs. We've got a pretty long track record for this front office. I think there is room to question their draft strategy without being outrageous when they go so far away from industry consensus.

Obviously, none of us know how this will all pan out. The Cubs have far more resources than we do to evaluate these guys. The industry guys absolutely suffer from some level of groupthink when it comes to the rankings, which leaves room for individual teams to have a much better read on true talent level for certain prospects.

All that said, I still find this draft...puzzling so far. The comments leading up to the draft were that they "had to nail" this time because they probably won't have this many high picks again for a while. These picks (past the first round) look pretty risky from the outside. I'll just hope they've been able to see things that others haven't, I guess.


There’s just not a big enough sample to say much about their prep OF record. So far they’ve drafted 3 HS OFs in the top 10 rounds (Almora, Wilson, Velázquez). They just don’t go the risky prep route frequently so it’s definitely interesting, I’d even agree with puzzling like you said. The pitching question marks are far more fleshed out and legitimate, in my eyes. That said, the Richan pick fits the MO of this team’s college pitcher picks.

FYI, Roederer is a big loss for UCLA. He was expected to be the only freshman starter on an Omaha contender and possibly the best offense in school history. They viewed him as a first rounder in 2021.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:28 pm

I was underwhelmed with Hoerner. That was my main issue. But, I'm guessing they cut a deal on him. And he is a guy that's likely a big leaguer. Versatile too. Davis and Roederer are interesting picks. Didn't see them coming. So that's going to be fun to monitor. I guess they're both slow burns and may take a while to show us anything to get excited on. They may struggle for a few years. Richan seems like the typical Cubs pitching draft pick. If anything, he's the most disappointing guy for me lol.

Hopefully they find some upside arms today. But, I'm pretty happy they took 3 bats yesterday.

Personally, I'm hoping we're at slot currently(or better) and that we take another HS kid or 2 today. I'm hoping for senior signs in 7-10. But, my guess is it'll be 9-10.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:37 pm

Fangraphs wrote:Richan fits with recent Cubs’ drafts modus operandi for mid-round selections as a polished, strike-throwing college starter. Four Corners scouts have told us Davis wants $1.2 to $1.5 million, so he’s probably $250-$500K over slot at No. 62. He could be a monster if he hits, but the bat is raw. We had Roederer evaluated in round Nos. 3 through 5, but his bat is advanced and the Cubs certainly round up harder on guys with good hit tools more than other orgs do, and that probably played a role where Hoerner is concerned, too.

Stengths:

  • Hoerner: 70 runner w/elite contact
  • Davis: Upside, 6 raw, 6 run
  • Roederer: Advanced bat, CF fit
  • Richan: 90-94, back-end SP
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:40 pm

Tim wrote:....what else have they done in the draft with the Cubs that gives anyone confidence that they can identify which toolsy HS OF they should pick? Is it DJ Wilson or someone else I'm missing? Why should I have any more confidence in Richan than the litany of similar pitchers they've taken?

This is their seventh draft with the Cubs. We've got a pretty long track record for this front office. I think there is room to question their draft strategy without being outrageous when they go so far away from industry consensus.

Obviously, none of us know how this will all pan out. The Cubs have far more resources than we do to evaluate these guys. The industry guys absolutely suffer from some level of groupthink when it comes to the rankings, which leaves room for individual teams to have a much better read on true talent level for certain prospects.

All that said, I still find this draft...puzzling so far. The comments leading up to the draft were that they "had to nail" this time because they probably won't have this many high picks again for a while. These picks (past the first round) look pretty risky from the outside. I'll just hope they've been able to see things that others haven't, I guess.


Puzzling for sure, and risky for sure. I agree, there is nothing in the MacLeod's Cubs drafting that suggests they've got any notable insights outside of top-10 picks. Several thoughts:
1. They have seemed to do pretty well with Eloy, Gleyber, Amaya. Maybe their scouting for teenage bats is good? I hope it will turn out so here.
2. Floor, ceiling, risk. I guess risk is the price of upside. Perhaps by taking a couple of shots in the 2nd, you hope one of them clicks? Pretty much no-such-thing as safe winners in the 60-80 range.
3. Obviously these are all pure, pure scouting picks. Cubs must think they see elements in the pitcher; scouting. The HS OFers, that's really pure scouting picks. Well, just like Wilson was, and Hanneman was, and Hudson was.....
4. Cubs have known they had a bundle of picks in the 60-80 range. So I have to assume they've spent a lot, lot, lot, lot of time reviewing these guys. I assume BA and PG and mlb media guys spend a lot of time on the top-end, first rounders and stuff. Not sure they have resources or focus on 2nd-50 group. But Cubs theoretically invested a whole lot of time in that part of the draft.
5. If some scouts love Davis + Roederer, and seem them as top-80 guys, do they share that with BA, the same way they share views on first-rounders? If you want to steal Davis or Roederer in round 4, do you tell the media you think he's a 1st-day guy? I dunno, and wonder how much of the media ranking is sourced from scouting sources.

Whatever, time will tell. Would be pretty fun if Hoerner emerges as a true-blue hitter who adds some power as well.

And hope the two OFers both magically turn into hitters.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:48 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:53 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:


That should allow one overslot arm, around $1 million in bonus. Maybe Slade Cecconi or Brett Hansen on the high end but it will more likely be a guy ranked by most publications in the 101-200 range, like Jeremiah Estrada last year. Champlain is interesting and I liked Owen Sharts for the name alone.

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:09 pm



That is very weird.
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