2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:00 pm

Confirmed we drafted the next Kinsler

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:54 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:15 pm



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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:23 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:24 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:But with the bolded, the big thing for everyone is whether or not you got the same vibe when you watched Ryan Kellogg, Kyle Twomey, or any of the other failed pitching prospects you fell in love with?


Well no, Kellogg and Twomey were really well known HS recruits that never got better but I thought they would in the pros. That's different. This is more the Cubs have drafted seemingly random college arms before with big holes in their profile somewhere or another and were given the benefit of the doubt on upside potential development ceiling. I don't see why Richan doesn't get the same when his flaws mostly seem aesthetic.


There's 2 things here that need to be discussed:

1. What are you talking about with the "seemingly random college arms" comment? The only one I can think of is Zastryzny, who was pretty much universally disliked at the time of the draft. Most didn't care too much, because Bryant was an awesome pick, but nobody loved Zastryzny in the 2nd. The guys you pointed out were Stinnett, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson. All 3 went almost exactly where the national scouting lists said they should. I think Johnson and Skulina actually went a little later than they were expected to. This is nowhere similar to the Richan case, who was taken hundreds of spots earlier than anybody thought he should be on the national level. You are trying to paint some scenario that doesn't/didn't exist.

2. Are you trying to say that you personally think a guy with "meh" stuff has as good of a chance of developing a plus pitch or two in pro ball, as a guy with plus stuff developing workable command and control? Because that's a topic worth debating on here.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:55 pm

I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay.

All that said, the 2nd point is an interesting discussion point. Essentially, to break it down to a superbly simplistic question - What's easier - teaching a guy a new pitch (or improving it dramatically) or teaching them command? There are stories of both things happening - Kyle Hendricks wasn't this good coming up the minors, for example. I'm going to take a partial cop out and say that, in terms of draft picks, it would depend on their age/experience. It's not impossible, but I think it's probably easier to teach a college guy with an average-ish arsenal command than teaching a new plus pitch/improving a pitch.

But yeah, it's a fascinating baseball development discussion to have.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:28 am

toonsterwu wrote:I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay.


Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus.

I hate the pick and think he'll barely register on our Top 30 prospect rankings, if he ever makes it on there. I hated the Zastryzny pick also. I didn't like the Stinnett selection at the time. I liked the Pierce Johnson selection, but he didn't amount to much...

Cubs need to do better and they've admitted as much.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:45 am

Hrubes20 wrote:1. What are you talking about with the "seemingly random college arms" comment? The only one I can think of is Zastryzny, who was pretty much universally disliked at the time of the draft. Most didn't care too much, because Bryant was an awesome pick, but nobody loved Zastryzny in the 2nd. The guys you pointed out were Stinnett, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson. All 3 went almost exactly where the national scouting lists said they should. I think Johnson and Skulina actually went a little later than they were expected to. This is nowhere similar to the Richan case, who was taken hundreds of spots earlier than anybody thought he should be on the national level. You are trying to paint some scenario that doesn't/didn't exist.

2. Are you trying to say that you personally think a guy with "meh" stuff has as good of a chance of developing a plus pitch or two in pro ball, as a guy with plus stuff developing workable command and control? Because that's a topic worth debating on here.


1 - I'll use random and generic to describe the hundreds and hundreds of non-first arms that can throw in the 90s with an offspeed these days. Each has their individual flaws, strengths and stories but overall they form a large pool of players. Those national lists are great to peruse and get names and a feel, but past probably the first 20-25 guys there's almost definitely no consensus. There's probably little consensus within even that first 25. If you're really so into it - a quick search has Richan drafted 78 and ranked 164 by Baseball America, hardly unprecedented while also not hundreds and hundreds apart.

2 - I constantly mention health because it's my key ingredient for having any optimism at all with pitchers. After that I look at fastball command and obviously performance beyond the surface stats. After that there's general athleticism and ability to repeat the delivery using all pitches. Age is less important than with hitters, though obviously it's getting it all younger is better for upside. Command is extremely hard to develop out of the blue in a healthy arm let alone a pre-injured one. Control is doable, you can teach guys to pick zones rather than spots. To offer an answer to your question: A pitcher does not need multiple plus pitches to throw successful ML innings and an average fastball that can be spotted can play up. If the bar is so high though then developing playably below average command and/or control is easier. I look at it as that a healthy amateur arm with command and control backed by positive performance has the best shot at improving stuff or skills as a pro pitcher.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:44 am

Regular Show wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay.


Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus.

I hate the pick and think he'll barely register on our Top 30 prospect rankings, if he ever makes it on there. I hated the Zastryzny pick also. I didn't like the Stinnett selection at the time. I liked the Pierce Johnson selection, but he didn't amount to much...

Cubs need to do better and they've admitted as much.


Well, here's the thing - you likely aren't grabbing a guy as an underslot guy who isn't fairly low compared to where you are picking at the moment. There are some exceptions - for example, a senior sign who rose up his last year might go for a bit below slot because of a lack of leverage (I believe Stinnett was, off the top).

I hate that I'm sort of defending Richan here, as I don't really like the talent. But the pick isn't the talent ... the pick is also somewhat a byproduct of the system. If people have a problem with the pick, they should have as much a problem with the Davis/Roederer picks, if not moreso. Put it another way - I don't love the talent, I'm okay with the pick as an extension of what happened in the draft.

As for where he ranks, our system isn't that good that a college pitcher with a starter's arsenal and command isn't going to register in the top 30. I haven't really thought it out, but my feeling is that the difference between Richan and Cory Abbott last year isn't nearly that great, so I'm guessing I'd probably put Richan in that 18-26 range. But to each their own.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:07 am

Regular Show wrote:...
Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus. .....


This seems like good logic, but pending Roederer's deal, it's fallacious.
*DAvis basically signed for slot. They didn't need Richan to underslot to help there.
*Unless Roederer gets significantly more than Davis did, he could have been covered by the the 5% overage.
*And if they did want to pay Roederer significantly more than Davis, they still have freed up several hundred K more with 8-10 senior signs.

Conclusion: Richan pick did NOT need to be sub-slotted in order to sign Davis and Roederer.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:07 am

Do we have any scouting info on the Puero Rican kid in round 13?
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:54 am

craig wrote:
Regular Show wrote:...
Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus. .....


This seems like good logic, but pending Roederer's deal, it's fallacious.
*DAvis basically signed for slot. They didn't need Richan to underslot to help there.
*Unless Roederer gets significantly more than Davis did, he could have been covered by the the 5% overage.
*And if they did want to pay Roederer significantly more than Davis, they still have freed up several hundred K more with 8-10 senior signs.

Conclusion: Richan pick did NOT need to be sub-slotted in order to sign Davis and Roederer.


Well, we won't really know until Roederer signs. I mean I don't understand why the Cubs would take Richan there and get him to sign an underslot deal if they never planned to use those savings or if they had enough to sign the Davis/Roederer duo.

Maybe they intended to draft another prep player in a later round and use those savings on him? I don't really understand their strategy...

I thought Davis was getting an overslot deal, but it looks like he's only signing slightly above slot value. Still hate the pick, but whatever.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:38 pm

craig wrote:Do we have any scouting info on the Puero Rican kid in round 13?



"One of the players who showed off some of the loudest tools of the day was impressive center fielder Ezequiel Pagan (2018, Guayanilla, Puerto Rico) for TSD Black. Pagan has a lean, high-waisted frame with long limbs and projection remaining throughout. Despite the lankiness of the frame he has present strength and that allows him to pull the barrel of the bat through the zone with impressive bat speed. The facet of Pagan's offensive approach that immediately stood out was his confidence in his ability. He was very relaxed and comfortable at the plate showing even a little bit of swagger as well. The barrel stays in the hitting zone for a long time and he has very quick hands with an inside path to the baseball. Pagan showed an awareness of the strike zone and showed the ability to control the barrel of the bat and to hit the ball hard to all fields. He launched a triple deep down the opposite field line and showed off his good speed as well. He was timed at 4.12 seconds to first base from the left side and has run a 6.6 60-yard dash at Perfect Game showcases in the past. The speed was evident on the base paths where he also showed good base running instincts. Pagan made long strides in the outfield and garnered good reads off fly balls. Pagan has very loud tools and they showed during his two games played on Friday."

"Ezequiel Pagan is a 2018 OF/3B with a 6-1 163 lb. frame from Guayanilla, PR who attends Pro Baseball High School Academy. Long and slender athletic build, not strong yet but has lots of physical projection, young Denard Span build. 6.63 runner, moves very easily in the outfield and on the bases, will have plus range in centerfield, has good arm strength with a long and loose arm action, very good defensive tools overall that will keep improving with repetitions and fundamentals. Left handed hitter, simple lower half shift into contact, big barrel wrap creates some length but can create whip when he gets extended, still learning to adjust to inside velocity and get his hands it, has hitting tools that project. Good student, signed with Broward CC."

Craig, Wes just sent me this on him.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:42 pm



Saved about $50k on Herron.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:34 pm

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $5,752,700
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,040,335
2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,439,000
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $313,700 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $601,335 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155 Under Budget

So they have $592,155 more than their pool for Roederer, Roberts, Weber, Franklin and anyone outside the first 10 rounds.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:53 am

davell wrote:
craig wrote:Do we have any scouting info on the Puero Rican kid in round 13?



"One of the players who showed off some of the loudest tools of the day was impressive center fielder Ezequiel Pagan ... has present strength ..... confidence in his ability. He was very relaxed and comfortable at the plate showing even a little bit of swagger as well...... He was timed at 4.12 seconds to first base from the left side and has run a 6.6 60-yard dash .... Pagan made long strides in the outfield and garnered good reads off fly balls. Pagan has very loud tools and they showed during his two games played on Friday."

"... not strong yet but has lots of physical projection.... Good student...."

Craig, Wes just sent me this on him.


Thanks for report. Sounds like a writeup that might go for a $1M international signee, or for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Seems VERY favorable for a 13th rounder, can see why Cubs are excited. Wonder if he's just a kid who loves baseball and wants to get going, so $125K bonus to go chase the dream is all good? Or if some of the underslot savings are going his way?

He's still only 17, so lots of time to get stronger and mature.

Fun and exciting pick, I'd say!
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:20 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $5,752,700
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,040,335
2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,439,000
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $313,700 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $601,335 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155 Under Budget

So they have $592,155 more than their pool for Roederer, Roberts, Weber, Franklin and anyone outside the first 10 rounds.


Not sure I'm tracking, and apologies for asking because I'm sure this has been discussed before. But, I'll ask anyway! :)

Q1: What's the difference between the bottom two lines, and why is the bottom one smaller?
*Are you only including the 5% for guys actually signed in 2nd-last, but last one assumes the full 10-rounds overage will become available because they'll sign? But if the latter, then the remaining overslot would get bigger, not less....

Note: I look at this a more simplistic way based off of $7.5M pool, because I assume they'll all sign.
1. $376 overage will become available.
2. $314 under slot for those signed thus far
Sum = $690

So, $690 overslot available to to finish off rounds 1-10 and apply to any 3rd-day overslots.

That seems like more than plenty to handle Roederer and Franklin, unless they liked those guys a whole lot more than I realize.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:31 am

Named After Maddux wrote:...Saved about $50k on Herron.


Not sure if they've got some formula set up. But it looks to me like other than Hoerner (suppposedly slot), Richan (significant underslot) and Artis (overslot), that the other 4 college picks have all been coming in about 10% underslot, more or less. Wonder if that will be about the same with Roberts and WEber too, or not? Slots are $400's and $300's, so maybe Roberts $40K under and Weber $30K under?
Herron: 520 570 -50
Mort 140 159 -19
Casey 130 145 -15
Reynolds 125 137 -12

I admit I was kinda surprised that 8-10 were all coming in with such modest $10-20K sub-slots, that's different from a lot of earlier Cub drafts.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:50 pm



Whoa! That's pretty surprising. Figured he'd get closer to slot.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:28 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:

Whoa! That's pretty surprising. Figured he'd get closer to slot.


Same. Unless Roederer is getting more than anybody could expect, they just may be able to make a solid offer to Mitchell Parker.

Edit: Forgot about Franklin. He's also a possibility to require more overslot than we think.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:42 pm

Wow, crazy, that's like 10th-round slot, less than Mort got and no more than senior-sign 22-going-on-23 Casey.

Really unexpected that low. By my count, that now puts the Cubs with $983K available for overslot signings. If Roederer and Franlin absorb all of that, that will be very surprising as well.

I wonder if the Cubs like the Louisville wildman more than we think, or something? And or the LSU wildman as well? Maybe Pagan?

IN past 5 years, I think Clifton's the only 3rd-day who's overslotted by >$100k, and Kevonte Mitchell the only other who's gotten as much as $200K total.

Hard to understand the strategy until we know where the overslot cash gets applied.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:59 pm

craig wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $5,752,700
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,040,335
2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,439,000
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $313,700 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $601,335 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155 Under Budget

So they have $592,155 more than their pool for Roederer, Roberts, Weber, Franklin and anyone outside the first 10 rounds.


Not sure I'm tracking, and apologies for asking because I'm sure this has been discussed before. But, I'll ask anyway! :)

Q1: What's the difference between the bottom two lines, and why is the bottom one smaller?
*Are you only including the 5% for guys actually signed in 2nd-last, but last one assumes the full 10-rounds overage will become available because they'll sign? But if the latter, then the remaining overslot would get bigger, not less....

Note: I look at this a more simplistic way based off of $7.5M pool, because I assume they'll all sign.
1. $376 overage will become available.
2. $314 under slot for those signed thus far
Sum = $690

So, $690 overslot available to to finish off rounds 1-10 and apply to any 3rd-day overslots.

That seems like more than plenty to handle Roederer and Franklin, unless they liked those guys a whole lot more than I realize.


The second to last line is based only on signed top 10 round picks. The last line is if we assume all remaining top 10 picks signed at their slot + 5%.

ETA: I think I made a miscalculation yesterday on this. The next post, updated with Roberts' info included, is accurate.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:34 pm

I deleted some of my lines because I think it's unnecessary and might create confusion. I kept the last line TT asked for because it makes the most sense to include.

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $6,178,800
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,487,740
2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,569,000
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $985,655 Under Budget

So the Cubs have $985,655 beyond just their pool slots to sign Roederer, Weber and Franklin (and anyone else over $125k beyond the 10th round).
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:48 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:....The second to last line is based only on signed top 10 round picks. The last line is if we assume all remaining top 10 picks signed at their slot + 5%.


Not sure I'm tracking, but upon completion of top-10's, that opens up the full $376K in overage, and should make more overage available.

So how can the last line, with the full $376 in overage included, show less discretionary $$ than the second last line, which does not assume the full overage yet?

My numbers have $607K underslot, counting Roberts + $376 overage = $983 sum discretionary.

I'm not sure the website where I got my slot numbers had them exactly right, plus I roundoff a bit, so I don't doubt I'm off by a couple of K.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:49 pm

craig wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:....The second to last line is based only on signed top 10 round picks. The last line is if we assume all remaining top 10 picks signed at their slot + 5%.


Not sure I'm tracking, but upon completion of top-10's, that opens up the full $376K in overage, and should make more overage available.

So how can the last line, with the full $376 in overage included, show less discretionary $$ than the second last line, which does not assume the full overage yet?

My numbers have $607K underslot, counting Roberts + $376 overage = $983 sum discretionary.

I'm not sure the website where I got my slot numbers had them exactly right, plus I roundoff a bit, so I don't doubt I'm off by a couple of K.


Craig, I made a mistake on the post before Roberts signed. Check the one after Roberts signed - I got $985k which matches yours with slight differences in rounding.
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