2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:27 pm

Yup, thanks. That last bottom line is the one that counts. Mine is roundoff error, but I'm still within $3K.

$985K is a non-trivial amount of discretionary dollars to play with. They may have liked your guy Roederer a lot, and perhaps it took more to buy him off that the $1.1 for Davis, will be interesting to see.

HRubes mentioned Mitchell Parker. One of his potential schools already said that the Cubs had made him a "decent" offer. I've got to assume that means variably north of 3rd-day slot, so I think he's probably in play.

With most of that $985 already available (if Hoerner has already signed off, as opposed to simply having agreed to terms, but not having the contract in the mlb office), I woldn't think they'd need to hold up on completing some or most of their overslots. Last year Estrada had to wait till the end, because his $$ would't be free till Lange signed off.

But once Hoerner is official, then they'll have all but like $30K available for wrapping up Roederer and then etc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:15 pm

My guess is Roederer comes in at a mill. Franklin costs 400k or so. Leaves us about 600k to throw towards Thompson, Pagan, Parker, and anyone else we've got to give over 125k to.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubsWin » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:18 am

davell wrote:My guess is Roederer comes in at a mill. Franklin costs 400k or so. Leaves us about 600k to throw towards Thompson, Pagan, Parker, and anyone else we've got to give over 125k to.

That presumes Weber gets slot.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:10 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:58 am

Here's some video of Kohl Franklin:



I think he can make significant velocity gains as a pro. He uses his lower body really well for a HSer, has a quick arm, gets on top of the ball, long levers...not sure there's a starter there but I like more than I dislike.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:12 am

Tom, how dated would that video of Franklin be? From last summer? Or woudl that be pretty up-to-date? I'm seeing June 5, 2018 on the thing, is that when it was actually taken?

Wes has linked twitter of Franklin saying he's officially a Cub.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:18 am

Anyone here think there's a reasonable chance they could sign both Riley Thompson and Ez. Pagan?

EDIT: ooops, looks like Pagan has signed? Awaiting confirmation, based on Wes' Google doc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:00 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:Anyone here think there's a reasonable chance they could sign both Riley Thompson and Ez. Pagan?

EDIT: ooops, looks like Pagan has signed? Awaiting confirmation, based on Wes' Google doc.


I think both those guys will sign. Especially since Thompson's a 4th year junior and we're his favorite team. I'm still holding out for Parker.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:07 am

craig wrote:Tom, how dated would that video of Franklin be? From last summer? Or woudl that be pretty up-to-date? I'm seeing June 5, 2018 on the thing, is that when it was actually taken?

Wes has linked twitter of Franklin saying he's officially a Cub.


Feburary showcase

----

Vanderbilt's getting Rocker and John Malcom on campus. Hopefully those guys believe in themselves and hit their upside ceiling development potential in school because their midichlorians are quite high especially the pitcher. Rocker's maybe the early favorite #1 overall in 2021 if he plays up to his potential upside ceiling.

----

I also really hope they land Parker. He can hopefully make up for the Brendon Little pick.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubsWin » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:38 pm

That begs the question if midichlorians are pervasive throughout the cells of one's body, is it truly necessary to believe in one's self? Or are you equating believing in yourself to trusting the force? I would argue that the force is quite different than yourself. In fact, it might even be the polar opposite as to use the force one must connect with the energy that surrounds you, in essence everything that is not you. Using the force requires the realization that you are one with every other living thing, that there is no self. Thus, if one's midichlorians are indeed high, there's no need to believe in yourself.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:23 pm



We obviously thought pretty highly of Franklin.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:28 pm

davell wrote:https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/1010888543864934400?s=19

We obviously thought pretty highly of Franklin.


$540k slot goes between the 103rd and 104th picks, a 3rd rounder.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:21 pm

Seems like they did 3 different tiers within the top 10 Rounds.....

1-3 looks to be lining up around slot. Hoerner was slot, Davis just a tad over, Richan way under and Herron a bit under. If Roederer gets 1.1 or less, it's basically slot for the first 3 rounds. Holding out a bit of hope he's around slot and we've got extra money to use......

4-6 seems like slot too. Roberts went under at basically the same amount Franklin went over. I'd guess Weber comes in around slot.

7-10 had Artis come in over by a bit and 8-10 all coming in a bit under, to cancel him out too.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:40 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:Anyone here think there's a reasonable chance they could sign both Riley Thompson and Ez. Pagan?

EDIT: ooops, looks like Pagan has signed? Awaiting confirmation, based on Wes' Google doc.


Crap, I meant Parker, not Thompson.

Guessing w/ the overslot Franklin got, probably not enough for Parker?
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:13 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:Anyone here think there's a reasonable chance they could sign both Riley Thompson and Ez. Pagan?

EDIT: ooops, looks like Pagan has signed? Awaiting confirmation, based on Wes' Google doc.


Crap, I meant Parker, not Thompson.

Guessing w/ the overslot Franklin got, probably not enough for Parker?


We can do mental gymnastics for just about any outcome honestly. But, let's operate on the assumption that all we have is our 5% money to play with. Which is around 375k.

Personally, I think Thompson and Pagan get some of that. Maybe even the vast majority of it. No idea. Slaughter, the LSU SS, that's a soph, could get some too.

They were all drafted higher than Parker. Who fell to the 28th round, despite being considered a middle of the first 10 Rounds type of talent, with higher upside.

If you fall that far, it's a signability thing or an injury thing, or both. He worked out for us and he canceled workouts with other teams too. This is a positive. But, we waited until the 28th to take him? That's a big negative. They were certainly willing for others to draft him at any point. He wasn't much of a priority.

His comments though, certainly make it sound like he wants to turn pro. He's even decided against UT and headed to a JC if we can't sign him.

Monetarily, he almost certainly had a big number during the process. Or else he would have went much higher. You have to think it'd have been well over 500k or else he'd have been taken much earlier.

Number could be dropping though too. He really wants to turn. His parents probably want him to go to college. Tug of war thing maybe. But, we can offer him 150k for college, plus whatever bonus money we've got left over.

Would 300,000 and 150 for college get him? No idea, but my guess is that is do we go what we're offering him right now.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:35 pm

They have $691,255 over slot funds remaining for Roederer, Weber and anyone over $125k past round 10.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:53 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:They have $636,620 over slot funds remaining for Roederer, Weber and anyone over $125k past round 10.


You've got to take Weber's slot out of that, at 317,600. They've got a bit over 300k in money above the slots to pay Roederer, Weber, or 11-40.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:39 pm

davell wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:They have $636,620 over slot funds remaining for Roederer, Weber and anyone over $125k past round 10.


You've got to take Weber's slot out of that, at 317,600. They've got a bit over 300k in money above the slots to pay Roederer, Weber, or 11-40.


I made a typo. It's actually $691,255 remaining in overslot funds if they are going to spend the 5% over. That $691,255 includes the 5% over balances for the top 10 rounders who have signed plus $38,755 5% overage for Roederer and $15,880 overage for Weber. I didn't include slot for Roederer or Weber.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:35 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:They have $691,255 over slot funds remaining for Roederer, Weber and anyone over $125k past round 10.


Yeah, that's still a pretty decent kitty. Roederer will get a chunk, but there will still be some left, I think.

I've got no idea with Andy WEber. If he frees up another $100+ underslot, wouldn't be surprised whatsoever.

No idea how much has perhaps already been gobbled up by 3rd day guys who have already signed, or intend to. Thompson, Sanders, Pagan, Slaughter, Reindl, Parker, there are a number of guys who might be worth some over-slot.

Parker, waiting till 28 doesn't suggest the expectation to sign him, on the face of it. Not sure he's really worth all that much, myself. But, might also imagine a deal where if parents are big on education and non-baseball factors, that Theo and the Cubs are REALLY good salemen, and can really spin the organization for supporting and valuing the whole person etc. So if mother is worried that son is going to be treated like a piece of meat, perhaps the Wrigley visit would have really put those concerns to rest? Not taking other trips strongly suggests to me the family liked what they heard from the Cubs, and he was telling other teams that he wouldn't sign with them. I kinda think there's a pretty good chance he'll get signed, too.

LSU Slaughter, he's s sophomore? Didn't realize. Weird. He's already a good half-year older than most of the juniors. (Richan, Roberts, Mort, Artis are all many months younger than Slaughter.

How good is the Razorback reliever? Is he good enough to command overslot? Or is he a guy you expect to get for $125K, or perhaps even less?
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:13 pm

Sanders is getting 125k. I've got no idea on what to expect on Weber.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:41 am

Thompson signed. Not much of a believer in the wildmen, but interesting wildcard/longshot.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:13 am

There has been interests/speculation regarding Parker, 28th-round HS pitcher who came to Wrigley.

Two rounds prior was another HS guy, outfielder Julian Boyd. In between was a JC pitcher who I believe has signed.

Do we know anything about Boyd, and think he might be signable? My recall is that he was a Nevada commit, and had a football injury.

I guess I'm just thinking that *IF* the Cubs think they can/will sign Parker in 28, why would they draft Boyd at 26 unless they also thought he at least MIGHT be signable too?

After those HS selections, they go college until 33; the Puerto Rican HS kid signed at 34, but otherwise I think 33-40 HS picks are probably all going to school. But I wonder if 26 and 28 might be in discussion?

No idea what if any tools Boyd is supposed to have.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:27 am

I'm gonna be mildly surprised if Andy Weber comes in as a under-slot guy. He's coming off a fantastic year at a major school. 5th round seems about right. That said, it's a bit surprising he hasn't signed yet.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:22 am

toonsterwu wrote:I'm gonna be mildly surprised if Andy Weber comes in as a under-slot guy. He's coming off a fantastic year at a major school. 5th round seems about right. That said, it's a bit surprising he hasn't signed yet.


It's not the end all, be all, but he didn't even crack PG or BA's top 500. It's fairly easy to make the case he's not a 5th rounder.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:05 pm

A slight underslot, say $300K against the slot of $317K, seems reasonable for Weber.
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