2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:38 am

Craig,

I actually don't disagree with anything you said.

Yes, sometimes it's important to have focused drafts. Yes, the goal is major leaguers, and ideally, impact major leaguers. I certainly understood the pitching heavy drafts.

Still, I think, in looking at the system from this year, a system that, I think, we can all agree on is fairly weak, there were gaps in the system, particularly on the positional side. It can't be solely attributed to trades - the weak AA positional crop this year could've been seen coming. Ceiling will be the most important thing in building usable value, but diversity of talent helps, particularly on the trade front.

_____

Leaving my balance thought aside for a second, I should note that the reason I liked this draft has as much to do with a balance of ceiling and floor.

_____

I would sort of like to see some aggressive pushing of some of these college bats, once they get their feet wet. Tbh, if Hoerner signs soon, I'm not opposed to, after getting his feet wet, pushing him up to Myrtle and sending Ademan back down. Heck, Virginia isn't doing much. I really hope Andy Weber gets signed and they try to push him up a bit.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:22 am

I'm reading up on the guys we drafted in the later rounds. I wonder how many of them we can actually sign. No clue...

So I have to say I'm NOT a big fan of these draft selections and this draft class overall for the Cubs. It seriously lacks in upside, and the chances of landing an impact player from this group is very low. Maybe that was the point though?

A lot of these players have high floors and should reach the upper minors at least. Andy Weber's scouting report sounds interesting and he might develop into a fringe regular/second-division starter kind of like David Bote.

I hate the Brennan Davis pick and was going to explicitly state I hope the Cubs don't draft him. Enough with the raw baseball skill/great athlete archetype. Jacob Hannemann, D.J. Wilson, Rashad Crawford, Kevonte Mitchell... It just doesn't work out for us. I know this is a small sample size and the signing bonuses vary and they have different backgrounds, but this strategy just doesn't work (I don't mind Mitchell and Crawford because their signing bonuses are so small/were late picks). I'll call it right now and say Brennan Davis stalls out at either AA or AAA.

I don't know if Jimmy Herron or D.J. Artis fall in the category I mentioned above, but I expect their signing bonuses to be much smaller. I think they're more refined and have a lot more experience. I don't hate their selections and I actually kind of like D.J. Artis (great name if nothing else).

I don't like the Paul Richan pick and doubt he'll ever rise into the Cubs Top 20-25 prospect rankings. Really boring back-of-the-rotation profile.

I think we barely mentioned Nico Hoerner in the 2018 Draft Thread and that was a mistake. We should've known he was on the Cubs radar with his performance in the Cape Cod League, plus makeup and solid hit tool. I like the pick and think he can fill the role that Ben Zobrist has as a super-utility guy in a couple years. We might also trade Happ for some pitching so Nico might take over Happ's role on the team and Nico is much better defensively.

I wouldn't be surprised if this draft class mirrors the 2015 group. Right now, it looks like Happ will be the only contributor from that draft (we did trade Dewees for something useful I guess). That draft class is kind of disappointing with Hudson and Wilson stagnating (if not struggling) in the minors right now. I think Nico will reach the big leagues sometime in 2020 and that we barely get anything from the other draft picks in this draft class.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:43 am

I wouldn't put Herron or Artis in a category with Davis. While it's fair to question how those guys will perform as they move up the ladder, neither has Davis' tools, but both have shown productivity at the collegiate level that should imply a relative solid hit tool. With Davis, it's unrefined raw talent. Both those guys are ... not finished, but not unrefined.

I don't disagree that the chances of landing an impact player in this draft is relatively slim. I don't want my positive outlook on the draft to seem like I'm overlooking that and some gung-ho Theo and Co. are the world enthusiast. Heck, it's quite possible that no positional guy is a starting caliber player. Besides Hoerner, Weber is probably the best bet. (While I have my biases ... I think there's a slim chance that Andy Weber is simply on an upward track, and he's showing some power development, and I could envision a scenario where he's a solid starting 2nd baseman or useful utility type. The misunderstanding about UVA hitting philosophy is that they don't want kids that hit for loft - Adam Haseley even said in a recent interview that he reduced the loft in his swing once he reached the pros, due to more velocity, and has had to try and find the loft he had at UVA. In some respects, UVA hitting philosophy is not too dissimilar from the direction the Cubs seem to be going in with this draft).

What I do like is that they took their shots. It could fail badly, it could. Only time will tell, but with Roberts/Franklin/Thompson they took some shots at pitching. I'm not huge on Richan ... I think of the two early floor arms (Richan/Casey), I wouldn't be surprised if Casey ended up the better guy (I could see him follow an Artie Lewicki like path). I can definitely see Davis stalling out ... it's easy to see unrefined talent stalling out, but I think an organization has to take it's shots at times, and they did.

Yeah, it's not a sexy draft. To be honest, with this current system, it's hard to have a sexy draft without picking really high. Not impossible, but hard. They took their shots, they got guys that should fill gaps in the system, and they got some college guys that should move fast.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:03 am

Regular Show wrote:I'm reading up on the guys we drafted in the later rounds. I wonder how many of them we can actually sign. No clue...

So I have to say I'm NOT a big fan of these draft selections and this draft class overall for the Cubs. It seriously lacks in upside, and the chances of landing an impact player from this group is very low. Maybe that was the point though?

The chances of landing an impact player outside the top the of the draft are always very low.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:43 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Regular Show wrote:I'm reading up on the guys we drafted in the later rounds. I wonder how many of them we can actually sign. No clue...

So I have to say I'm NOT a big fan of these draft selections and this draft class overall for the Cubs. It seriously lacks in upside, and the chances of landing an impact player from this group is very low. Maybe that was the point though?

The chances of landing an impact player outside the top the of the draft are always very low.


Yeah, I know. I was going to state that fact, but most everyone knows that -- this isn't the NFL draft. What I mean is that this group has an even smaller chance of landing an impact player compared to other team's draft selections. The best way to land an impact player is by taking a talented HS player with that coveted high-risk/high-reward profile. The Cubs didn't do that...

Brennan Davis does fit that profile, but I almost guarantee that won't work out. I actually really dislike that pick and think it's stupid considering we're giving him an overslot deal.

I'm not the only one who is saying this btw. Keith Law also mentioned how this group lacks high ceilings/upside and is more high floor. We'll see, but right now I think this draft class (outside of Nico Hoerner) sucks quite frankly. I felt the same way about the 2015 draft and I don't think I'm wrong on that one.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubsWin » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:55 pm

Regular Show wrote:I'm reading up on the guys we drafted in the later rounds. I wonder how many of them we can actually sign. No clue...

So I have to say I'm NOT a big fan of these draft selections and this draft class overall for the Cubs. It seriously lacks in upside, and the chances of landing an impact player from this group is very low. Maybe that was the point though?

A lot of these players have high floors and should reach the upper minors at least. Andy Weber's scouting report sounds interesting and he might develop into a fringe regular/second-division starter kind of like David Bote.

I hate the Brennan Davis pick and was going to explicitly state I hope the Cubs don't draft him. Enough with the raw baseball skill/great athlete archetype. Jacob Hannemann, D.J. Wilson, Rashad Crawford, Kevonte Mitchell... It just doesn't work out for us. I know this is a small sample size and the signing bonuses vary and they have different backgrounds, but this strategy just doesn't work (I don't mind Mitchell and Crawford because their signing bonuses are so small/were late picks). I'll call it right now and say Brennan Davis stalls out at either AA or AAA.

I don't know if Jimmy Herron or D.J. Artis fall in the category I mentioned above, but I expect their signing bonuses to be much smaller. I think they're more refined and have a lot more experience. I don't hate their selections and I actually kind of like D.J. Artis (great name if nothing else).

I don't like the Paul Richan pick and doubt he'll ever rise into the Cubs Top 20-25 prospect rankings. Really boring back-of-the-rotation profile.

I think we barely mentioned Nico Hoerner in the 2018 Draft Thread and that was a mistake. We should've known he was on the Cubs radar with his performance in the Cape Cod League, plus makeup and solid hit tool. I like the pick and think he can fill the role that Ben Zobrist has as a super-utility guy in a couple years. We might also trade Happ for some pitching so Nico might take over Happ's role on the team and Nico is much better defensively.

I wouldn't be surprised if this draft class mirrors the 2015 group. Right now, it looks like Happ will be the only contributor from that draft (we did trade Dewees for something useful I guess). That draft class is kind of disappointing with Hudson and Wilson stagnating (if not struggling) in the minors right now. I think Nico will reach the big leagues sometime in 2020 and that we barely get anything from the other draft picks in this draft class.

I don't know how anyone can form such a clear opinion about a draft class after a couple days, but all there is to do now is wait 3 years and see if you're right...
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:07 pm

They're going to spend what - maybe $10 million on this draft? Hoerner being a relatively high probability ML as a three year college bat with strong CCL performance, up the middle defense, high contact rates, and speed can make that back and more probably faster than most. When looked at through that lens it's hard to really get upset about the draft. Yeah there were higher upside plays but those also come with much higher risk.

As an aside I hope Rocker goes to Vanderbilt and basically becomes the next Clemens or Schilling.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby javy knows my name » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:30 pm

I am probably misremembering this, but Hoerner's profile reminds me of Trae Turner's quite a bit. High contact likely SS with elite speed and athleticism that MIGHT hit for power. People thought he was taken too high that year. That worked out pretty well.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:35 pm

CubsWin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:I'm reading up on the guys we drafted in the later rounds. I wonder how many of them we can actually sign. No clue...

So I have to say I'm NOT a big fan of these draft selections and this draft class overall for the Cubs. It seriously lacks in upside, and the chances of landing an impact player from this group is very low. Maybe that was the point though?

A lot of these players have high floors and should reach the upper minors at least. Andy Weber's scouting report sounds interesting and he might develop into a fringe regular/second-division starter kind of like David Bote.

I hate the Brennan Davis pick and was going to explicitly state I hope the Cubs don't draft him. Enough with the raw baseball skill/great athlete archetype. Jacob Hannemann, D.J. Wilson, Rashad Crawford, Kevonte Mitchell... It just doesn't work out for us. I know this is a small sample size and the signing bonuses vary and they have different backgrounds, but this strategy just doesn't work (I don't mind Mitchell and Crawford because their signing bonuses are so small/were late picks). I'll call it right now and say Brennan Davis stalls out at either AA or AAA.

I don't know if Jimmy Herron or D.J. Artis fall in the category I mentioned above, but I expect their signing bonuses to be much smaller. I think they're more refined and have a lot more experience. I don't hate their selections and I actually kind of like D.J. Artis (great name if nothing else).

I don't like the Paul Richan pick and doubt he'll ever rise into the Cubs Top 20-25 prospect rankings. Really boring back-of-the-rotation profile.

I think we barely mentioned Nico Hoerner in the 2018 Draft Thread and that was a mistake. We should've known he was on the Cubs radar with his performance in the Cape Cod League, plus makeup and solid hit tool. I like the pick and think he can fill the role that Ben Zobrist has as a super-utility guy in a couple years. We might also trade Happ for some pitching so Nico might take over Happ's role on the team and Nico is much better defensively.

I wouldn't be surprised if this draft class mirrors the 2015 group. Right now, it looks like Happ will be the only contributor from that draft (we did trade Dewees for something useful I guess). That draft class is kind of disappointing with Hudson and Wilson stagnating (if not struggling) in the minors right now. I think Nico will reach the big leagues sometime in 2020 and that we barely get anything from the other draft picks in this draft class.

I don't know how anyone can form such a clear opinion about a draft class after a couple days, but all there is to do now is wait 3 years and see if you're right...


Well, I hope I'm wrong and that the Cubs are right on their evaluation of these draft picks. I've gone back at looked at past drafts under this regime starting with the 2012 draft, and we honestly just do not draft that well after the 1st round for whatever reason. We're consistently missing year after year and I do NOT count draft picks like Rob Zastryzny or Paul Blackburn as hits. I'm talking about prospects that have serious value in trades or contribute at the big league level. So far, the Cubs have fared very poorly in part because of their philosophy -- draft bats at the top and go for pitching afterwards with a high volume approach.

Maybe I'm just disgruntled, but I don't feel like the Cubs have learned any lessons from their past draft failures. Yeah, we'll see in 3-5 years and I don't think we'll be all that happy...
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:04 pm

Regular Show wrote:I've gone back at looked at past drafts under this regime starting with the 2012 draft, and we honestly just do not draft that well after the 1st round for whatever reason.


I think the reason is that no one does well outside of the first plus a little bit of these inane spending restrictions meant to deflate salaries in the short and long run. The FO has used non-firsts to get impact guys like Montgomery and Quintana.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:45 pm

No offense, but I think you have unrealistic expectations. The thing to keep in mind is how tough the draft is for everyone. Getting, say, a quality starting player, a bench player, and a bullpen arm is actually a great outcome from a given draft. Getting two starting caliber players is fantastic. Getting three is franchise altering.

Also no one really does well after the first round. That's why people will not shut up about, for example, Mookie Betts being a fifth round pick. This FO has probably done a little worse than the average after the first round, but they've also done incredibly well in the first round, which given how talent is distributed is way more important. Complaining about their later round drafting is like complaining that Bryant doesn't hit more dongs. Yeah I agree it'd be cooler if he did but like he's already one of the best.

I don't love this draft, let's say Hoerner turns into fast DJ Lemahieu, they hit on a prep outfielder, and we end up with a Justin Grimm type along the line somewhere. This draft will go down as a success. Drafting is horsefeathers is HARD. That's why the end of the Hendry era was so fallow. It wasn't his moves at the major league level (though to be sure, those could have used some work), it was that the drafts from 2004-2010 were mostly duds. (Darwin Barney is like the 5th best player we drafted over that period).
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:49 pm

It's still too early to evaluate picks after the first round, by this regime..... And with that said, our success rates on our 1st rounders actually makes it less imperative on finding success later.

But still, let's take a look at each draft individually..... Who came out of those classes, that weren't 1sts.....

2012- Pierce Johnson and Blackburn were supplementals. Johnson was DFA'd, no success there, outside a few meaningless innings. Blackburn was traded in the Montgomery deal. That does hold a bit of value to me. Underwood was our 2nd. He is on the 40 Man, currently in AAA. I expect little to nothing from him, but it's still too early to know...... Plus, David Bote came from that draft, who I DO expect to be a long term contributor for us still.

2013- Rob Z isn't a success. But, he did make the playoff roster in 2016, against the Dodgers. Yes an up and down guy. Who could conceivably still give us a full season in the majors at some point. Hannemann sucks. Charcer Burks isn't going to make it. Godley was dealt for Miggy, who we needed to win the WS. Even though we missed on him being our pitcher, it was a nice pick and it helped us. Clifton just made AAA, has been solid this year. I like his chances more than Underwoods to help us down the line.

2014- Easiest by far to see success out of. Zagunis is a MLer. May never get a shot here, but he will somewhere. Steele was looking good prior to TJS, he's still got a shot at being a contributor. Cease turned into a top 100 guy, that helped us land Quintana. Hell, James Farris netted us Butler, who's had his uses. Jason Vosler still has a shot at being a real contributor in some form.

2015- This is a weak effort, after Happ. DeWees netted us Zack Mills, who's get to hit the majors. DJ Wilson has been hurt too much to truly see where we stand with him. He still has a decent shot at seeing the majors at some point. Craig Brooks could wind up a solid pen arm, has built a solid track record so far. I guess Ian Rice could sniff the majors at some stage.......

2016- Our 1st pick was a 3rd Rounder. Hatch is in AA, which is where your expect him to be. Personally, not a huge fan, but he's got a shot at being a MLer still. Tyson Miller has been decent in High A. Bailey Clark is showing nice upside now. Robinson, Rucker, and Swarmer ALL came from this class. All have a chance still. Very pleasant surprises. Mekkes came from here too and I fully EXPECT him to be a guy we can pencil him into our pen soon. You also got Zack Short, who may have a use. For it to still be early, this class looks excellent for not having a 1st rounder. Or even a 2nd.

The main points being here, that A) you've already traded guys from these classes that have landed us true help. B) We've still got guys in EACH class, that are still potential help. Some of whom I fully expect will be.

It's too early to write the FO's non 1st round efforts off. It's also right acknowledge some serious help has already been received thru trades involving non 1sts. You've still got guys coming up from each draft. You've also got to ask what you think is reasonable to expect out of non 1sts? These guys haven't been the BEST over this time but I'm sure they stack up fairly solid too. But again, mainly....... Still too early, especially when we still have guys from 2012 that can still legit help us at some point.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:09 pm

One of the reasons Brennan Davis, Cole Roederer and Kohl Franklin might be ranked lower in the prospect publications than where the Cubs picked them and will pay them is that they were all injured and missed good chunks of the season where a lot of scouts didn't get to see them. The Cubs clearly saw all three of these guys on good days before they were hurt so it'll be interesting to see if they have a better read on their abilities than the general consensus.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:14 pm

Ohh, some of the hitters drafted did well on the Mookie Betts neuro testing. That's exciting.

Bleacher Nation wrote:On the draft, Epstein said his picks are not guided by floor or ceiling, but rather by the qualities they value. “You’re talking about literally hundred of variables. We try to get as much information as possible. We really challenge our area scouts to dig and get to know the player extremely well … and then we try to find every single performance indicator that we can. Statistically, in terms of certain testing that we do, there’s ways to get all kinds of a data on players now.” Epstein expanded by saying plenty of teams can gather these variables, but appropriately valuing them is the hard part.

But here’s where his comments get a little crazy (and exciting). Epstein said that he was particularly happy with this draft because the picks really reflect what the team finds important. “There are things we really like about their [the draftees] neuro-testing. So, basically how we feel objectively about their hand-eye coordination and their ability to hit really advanced pitching when the time comes.” Wow. I’ve heard of medical exams and physical tests before taking a player, but neuro-testing potential draft picks for objective hand-eye coordination measurements? That feels new. I would very much like to learn more about that.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:48 pm

how has he not heard of neuro-testing?
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:49 pm

Bobson Dugnutt wrote:how has he not heard of neuro-testing?


That’s what I was thinking too.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:55 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:how has he not heard of neuro-testing?


That’s what I was thinking too.


yeah, not really a criticism. i don't expect a casual fan to have heard of it. but for a writer at a site that obsessively parses everything even tangentially related to Theo Epstein, it's pretty surprising.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:44 pm

I'm almost positive the first time I read about the Cubs doing research into that was Bleacher Nation.

I've been assuming it was basically the reason they've been able to identify guys like Happ and Schwarber who were not on people's radar at the time.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:14 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm almost positive the first time I read about the Cubs doing research into that was Bleacher Nation.

I've been assuming it was basically the reason they've been able to identify guys like Happ and Schwarber who were not on people's radar at the time.


Happ was drafted about where he was projected to go. Obviously they could have still used that data to draft him over others. Schwarber was the surprise, he was expected to go at best 1.8 but likely in the teens. Given what he did to ramp up for the World Series, I wouldn't be shocked if he scored very well on those sort off tests.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:20 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm almost positive the first time I read about the Cubs doing research into that was Bleacher Nation.

I've been assuming it was basically the reason they've been able to identify guys like Happ and Schwarber who were not on people's radar at the time.


I thought the exact same thing. Almost positive that's where I read that at.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:35 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm almost positive the first time I read about the Cubs doing research into that was Bleacher Nation.

I've been assuming it was basically the reason they've been able to identify guys like Happ and Schwarber who were not on people's radar at the time.


Happ was drafted about where he was projected to go. Obviously they could have still used that data to draft him over others. Schwarber was the surprise, he was expected to go at best 1.8 but likely in the teens. Given what he did to ramp up for the World Series, I wouldn't be shocked if he scored very well on those sort off tests.


Yeah, Happ went right around the area he was expected to be taken, but the guy this Cubs regime really badly wanted in 2015 was Andrew Benintendi. They really liked him, and I think they had him higher on their draft board. Schwarber went higher than expected, but that was due to positional concerns/defense -- not questions about his bat or knowledge of the strike zone. Some scouts had him listed as a 1B/DH with no chance to stick at C or in the OF.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:49 am

Don't make me look up old draft threads and see how often those guys were mentioned before they were picked.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:07 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Don't make me look up old draft threads and see how often those guys were mentioned before they were picked.


Do it. I was really high on Schwarber in the run up to that draft.
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:10 am

Not surprising:

LA Daily News wrote:Roederer, out of Hart High, went to the Cubs as a second-round compensation pick valued at $775,100. Savage said he’s already made his decision to sign.
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davell
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:09 am



Please sign.
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Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.


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