Regular Show wrote:....
So I have to say I'm NOT a big fan of these draft selections and this draft class overall for the Cubs. It seriously lacks in upside, and the chances of landing an impact player from this group is very low. ..... What I mean is that this group has an even smaller chance of landing an impact player compared to other team's draft selections. The best way to land an impact player is by taking a talented HS player with that coveted high-risk/high-reward profile. The Cubs didn't do that...
Brennan Davis does fit that profile, but I almost guarantee that won't work out. I actually really dislike that pick and think it's stupid considering we're giving him an overslot deal......
Interesting article in the Athletic about the Cubs draft, with some good quotes from Dorey etc..
https://theathletic.com/384762/2018/06/ ... -together/
Show, I hope you're wrong. I think some of your arguments are a little mixed. Seems to me that one argument is:
1. Cubs haven't done well outside of the first round thus far (I agree), so they won't do well outside of the first round in this draft either.
2. A second argument is that have failed with raw prospects before, so will fail with Roederer and Davis.
3. A third is that they didn't draft upside guys.
You may well be right.
But I think your second argument is the hinge one. I think Wilson is the only $$-HS guy they've signed. Hanneman is another example of a raw guy who didn't work out, but he was college already. The others, Crawfords and the like, those are 3rd-day picks. So to me, it seems like the Cubs record with HS-hitters like Roederer and Davis is pretty much wilson and that's it.
I agree, Wilson's been a hopeless failure, and a wasted pick. But I'm not sure failing on one HS pick, and then also some 3rd-day guys, I think that's a small data pool on which to conclude a trend. So I'm optimistic re both Roederer and Davis.
I think your 3rd argument is somewhat confusing. You complain that they didn't select upside guys, when to my perspective they took two such in Davis and Roederer. Reading what Dorey said, they were very much looking for upside guys, and ID'd Davis and Roederer as such. So the attempt is clearly there. You've already concluded that their attempts will fail, and you'll probably be correct. (Most 60-80 picks fail, especially HS ones....)
But that's a scouting evaluation on your part, I think, (or a scouting failure on their part), more than a strategic failure. If in fact they did fail.
My thinking is that although some of their HS guys have failed (Wilson and Sierra), they've had good luck with Gleyber and Eloy and Amara. So I'm not sure it's as well established and conclusive that they will fail to identify and develop teenage hitting prospects.