2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:11 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:19 pm

Thought for sure that guy would be an under slot
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:30 pm

Well, he may be. If he got 450k, then it's a pretty major under slot, since pick value is 762,900. Really need clarification on this one, as it could go either way obviously.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:16 pm

davell wrote:Well, he may be. If he got 450k, then it's a pretty major under slot, since pick value is 762,900. Really need clarification on this one, as it could go either way obviously.


And Richan was quoted as saying he was expecting 4-6th rounds. $450k is slightly above slot for our pick in the 4th round. Fingers crossed for the figure being correct. Otherwise I’m curious where we found the funds to pay our HS picks.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:47 pm

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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:18 pm

That Richan pick is my least favorite one. I know the underslot was necessarily, but just yuck.

Not thrilled with the draft overall, but definitely interested in following how these "cognitive skill darlings" (CSDs for short, that's trademarked) are going to fare. It's clear as day that the Cubs selected their guys and didn't give a crap about where others valued them, or that they had higher bonus demands than the rest of baseball thought they were worth. Here's hoping they are onto something.

Worst case scenario, is that we have an influx of new bats to follow in the minor leagues every day. That in itself makes me happy.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:13 am

Hrubes20 wrote:..definitely interested in following how these "cognitive skill darlings" (CSDs for short, that's trademarked) are going to fare. It's clear as day that the Cubs selected their guys and didn't give a crap about where others valued them, or that they had higher bonus demands than the rest of baseball thought they were worth. Here's hoping they are onto something...


Yeah. Cubs made their valuation and don't seem to care what other teams thought. Their valuation may be (or maybe isn't) way different from what other teams evaluated. Whatever, lets just hope they are vindicated.
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Re: 2017 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:43 pm

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Re: 2017 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:11 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:


First post updated. Here we are after two top 10 round picks have signed:

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $955,400
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $1,003,170
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $700,000
2018 Bonus Pool +/-: $255,400 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $303,170 Under Budget
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Re: 2017 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:52 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:


First post updated. Here we are after two top 10 round picks have signed:

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $955,400
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $1,003,170
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $700,000
2018 Bonus Pool +/-: $255,400 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $303,170 Under Budget


This is very helpful, thanks! One small suggestion, can we include the overage amount that assumes everyone in the Top 10 signs? I know the technical overage amount requires signings and until they're finalized that's in doubt, but given how likely it is for Top 10 picks to sign, I feel that number has more practical use in guiding these conversations.
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Re: 2017 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:11 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:


First post updated. Here we are after two top 10 round picks have signed:

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $955,400
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $1,003,170
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $700,000
2018 Bonus Pool +/-: $255,400 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $303,170 Under Budget


This is very helpful, thanks! One small suggestion, can we include the overage amount that assumes everyone in the Top 10 signs? I know the technical overage amount requires signings and until they're finalized that's in doubt, but given how likely it is for Top 10 picks to sign, I feel that number has more practical use in guiding these conversations.


Something like this?
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Re: 2017 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:20 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
First post updated. Here we are after two top 10 round picks have signed:

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $955,400
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $1,003,170
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $700,000
2018 Bonus Pool +/-: $255,400 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $303,170 Under Budget


This is very helpful, thanks! One small suggestion, can we include the overage amount that assumes everyone in the Top 10 signs? I know the technical overage amount requires signings and until they're finalized that's in doubt, but given how likely it is for Top 10 picks to sign, I feel that number has more practical use in guiding these conversations.


Something like this?


Fancy!

Really I was just thinking that if we're including overages, in the technical sense they're really $630k under budget(375 is the 5% overage for everyone signing, 255 under slot from confirmed signings). To me that's a more actionable number that helps me understand the room to play with as they sign, maybe I'm alone on that front though.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:03 am



That's less than I figured on him.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:49 am

In a world where we gave guys like Stinnet, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson the time of day for a few minutes, what's so bad about Richan? He's healthy, young, can hit 94, can locate it, healthy, can locate at least two other pitches, keeps the ball in the park, and missed bats this year. Plus he's not unathletic and repeats his delivery really well. Most of these college arms, especially the RHs, do one or two of those things with the rest getting covered with promises of upside ceiling development.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:04 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:In a world where we gave guys like Stinnet, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson the time of day for a few minutes, what's so bad about Richan? He's healthy, young, can hit 94, can locate it, healthy, can locate at least two other pitches, keeps the ball in the park, and missed bats this year. Plus he's not unathletic and repeats his delivery really well. Most of these college arms, especially the RHs, do one or two of those things with the rest getting covered with promises of upside ceiling development.


He has less fastball than all of them, and doesn't even flash a plus secondary like each of those 3 you listed. Those are the big reasons why he was knocked around all year at the college level. It's not always a great thing to throw strikes when your stuff is as mediocre as Richan's.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:05 pm

davell wrote:https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1007423263201513472?s=19

That's less than I figured on him.


Same here. I thought I saw that he was asking for $1.2-$1.5 or something like that.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:35 pm

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $2,016,300
2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $2,117,115
2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955
2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $1,800,000
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $216,300 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $317,115 Under Budget
2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155.00 Under Budget

TT, that last line is what you're looking for, right?
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:37 pm

Per AZ Phil:

The Cubs have officially signed eight more players selected in last week's MLB First-Year Player Draft:

D. J. Artis, OF (7th round * Liberty University) - COLLEGE JR
Riley McCauley, RHP (14th round * Michigan State) - COLLEGE JR
Carlos Vega, RHP (21st round * Southeast Missouri State) - COLLEGE SR
Jamie Galazin, OF (22nd round * St. John's University) - COLLEGE SR
Blake Whitney, RHP (24th round * USC - Upstate) - COLLEGE SR
Drew Wharton, OF-1B (30th round * Clemson) - COLLEGE SR
Clayton Daniel, 2B (31st round * Jacksonville State) - COLLEGE SR
Jack Patterson, LHP (32nd round * Bryant University) - COLLEGE 5th YEAR (REDSHIRT SR)

Galazin and Wharton were assigned to AZL Cubs #2, and the other six were assigned to AZL Cubs #1.

This brings the total number of draft picks signed to nine.


https://www.thecubreporter.com/comment/ ... ent-259251
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:44 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155.00 Under Budget

TT, that last line is what you're looking for, right?


Sure is, thanks!
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:56 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:In a world where we gave guys like Stinnet, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson the time of day for a few minutes, what's so bad about Richan? He's healthy, young, can hit 94, can locate it, healthy, can locate at least two other pitches, keeps the ball in the park, and missed bats this year. Plus he's not unathletic and repeats his delivery really well. Most of these college arms, especially the RHs, do one or two of those things with the rest getting covered with promises of upside ceiling development.


He has less fastball than all of them, and doesn't even flash a plus secondary like each of those 3 you listed. Those are the big reasons why he was knocked around all year at the college level. It's not always a great thing to throw strikes when your stuff is as mediocre as Richan's.


I think the biggest issue I had with Richan is simply that, at the moment, it felt like a high floor guy. In the moment, we had drafted Hoerner, which wasn't off the board but overall seemed a tiny bit higher, two OF's that, if I recall the thread, drew mixed reactions then (and now). Richan also came out saying he got slot, which seemed to send confusing signals on the draft.

I mean, I simply don't see the gap between Casey and Richan as being all that much, and no one would has an issue with Casey. In hindsight, knowing Richan was an underslot purpose, then okay. I still don't love Richan ... but the system is the system, and there is a need for underslot guys.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby davell » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:53 pm

Brayden Fisher signed for under 500k, Justin Jarvis signed for a bit over 300k. Fisher in the 3rd as an UNDER SLOT HS arm, same with Jarvis in the 4th, would have made me very happy.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:11 am

Hrubes20 wrote:He has less fastball than all of them, and doesn't even flash a plus secondary like each of those 3 you listed. Those are the big reasons why he was knocked around all year at the college level. It's not always a great thing to throw strikes when your stuff is as mediocre as Richan's.


From what I see when I read - his peak fastball velocity isn’t as high as the others mostly never showed that in the pros anyway. Otherwise those guys don’t really have anything over him that really really matters. Johnson had his breaking ball but a significant injury history and mediocre mound skills. Skulina was tall or something but didn't have any standout skills, tools, or performance. Stinnet's big skill was missing bats that one year but otherwise didn't have much going for him. Richan just seems more well rounded. He gave up hits in college but wasn’t really knocked around - not many XBHs or HRs (6 HRs his last two seasons over 166+ IP, including just 1 in 2017), and the quantity of hits could be a product of being a groundball guy in front of a college defense. I don't really see scattering some hits as a more damning flaw than lots of injuries, no discernible skills, or being a one trick pony. I believe there's more to work with here than is being credited.

Anecdotally after the 2016 draft I singled out Rucker as an interesting looking guy (on this site!) based off a Youtube clip of him closing a game for BYU. He wasn't pumping out 95+ pitch after pitch in that inning either or show a wipeout offspeed, but did repeat his delivery well while throwing strikes, getting some misses anyway, and not blowing his arm out. I got similar vibes watching Richan.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:13 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:In a world where we gave guys like Stinnet, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson the time of day for a few minutes, what's so bad about Richan? He's healthy, young, can hit 94, can locate it, healthy, can locate at least two other pitches, keeps the ball in the park, and missed bats this year. Plus he's not unathletic and repeats his delivery really well. Most of these college arms, especially the RHs, do one or two of those things with the rest getting covered with promises of upside ceiling development.


Just an FYI, USD is one of the best pitcher’s parks in college baseball in terms of suppressing home runs.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:18 pm

toonsterwu wrote:...I think the biggest issue I had with Richan is simply that, at the moment, it felt like a high floor guy. .... .... I still don't love Richan ... but the system is the system, and there is a need for underslot guys.


I don't really follow the "system is the system, and there is a need for underslot" logic, with regards to Richan and the Cubs draft.
Unless there are some surprises ahead.

With Davis signing for $1.1 slot, why would there be any "need" to underslot in the Richan pick? I may be wrong, but I don't imagine Roederer or Franklin are getting $0.5M over..... With Davis and Hoerner signing for slot, they could certainly have covered Roederer with overage, and taken a full-slot guy at Richan's pick. I don't think they had to go cheap, or had to significantly compromise quality (as perceived by Cub scouts).

If they didn't need to, then why did they? I hypothesize that they just liked the guy, and viewed the subslot not as a need but as an opportunity. If they like the guy just as well as slot guys, why not take the equally good Richan AND free up the cash? Win-win.

I may be wrong. Maybe they love both Roederer and Franklin, and need to hit $1M for each of them or close. *IF* they like Franlin to the tune of >$800K, then they needed to create some cash somewhere. (If so, I'm actually more excited about Franklin, that would be pretty intriguing)

But I'm kinda thinking they just scouted Richan as being worth the pick, with the sub-slot cash freed as being value added. Kind of how they talk about Schwarber.
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Re: 2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:30 pm

It will be interesting to see how the Cubs spending does play out. How much will Roederer and franklin get?

I've kind of gotten used to Cubs going senior-sign cheap in rounds 8-10, sometimes 7 too. But some things may be different this year? Paying Artis a little OVER in round 7? Reynolds almost full in 10? I wonder if, with other teams often dropping out in rounds 7-10, if they've felt that by going slot in those rounds, they can actually get some good value on guys who want to sign and want the status of being 2nd-day picks?

There was reference to "decent" offer to 28th round pick Parker. Maybe they do think there are also some guys who'd sign for $150+ on 3rd day, and with two rookie-league teams they want to add more volume? Will we see a couple of 3rd-days who get modest overslot? Not huge, but $100K here or there?

Hard to figure the value of sub-slotting richan without knowing what the cash gets spent on; and then it will take years to figure if any of that is worthwhile.
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