2019 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:43 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:I watched a lot of Campbell last year and his fastball command was not good. Always possible that he changed something up and has improved there, but I really don't like those types if it can be avoided.


He’s at 4 walks, no HRs, and 23 hits allowed in 30+ innings this year and 44 Ks. That suggests some development in the command area to me. There’s some shades of Hatch in that he missed 2017 to a non-surgery elbow injury, maybe you saw rust? I don’t necessarily see a guy with outright poor or nonexistent fastball command, though yeah nothing jumps out enough where my initial impression high ceiling ML SP or first rounder. I like the overall package of frame, very athletic delivery, quick arm, multiple spins, velocity, willingness to pitch guys inside, mostly quality or better performances...

——

Matthew Lugo looks interesting, like the universe blended Almora and Jordan Groshans into a SS prospect. I think there may be enough there to end up going in the first, and IIRC he may have been one of the HS bats hyped by pubs initially. In general the HS bats situation seems quiet but there’s definitely serious candidates to blow up over the next three months
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:19 pm



The title for best prep arm in this draft class is between this guy and Daniel Espino. Both have nasty stuff, but Espino has the more explosive fastball and better velo. I like both of them, but we're probably not targeting a pitcher (especially a HS pitcher). The Cubs are taking an advanced college bat that performed in the Cape Cod League. That is the smart play and safest choice.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:44 pm

Reeeeeaaaaallly like Allan among the HS arms and that’s a really good look
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:10 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:I watched a lot of Campbell last year and his fastball command was not good. Always possible that he changed something up and has improved there, but I really don't like those types if it can be avoided.


He’s at 4 walks, no HRs, and 23 hits allowed in 30+ innings this year and 44 Ks. That suggests some development in the command area to me. There’s some shades of Hatch in that he missed 2017 to a non-surgery elbow injury, maybe you saw rust? I don’t necessarily see a guy with outright poor or nonexistent fastball command, though yeah nothing jumps out enough where my initial impression high ceiling ML SP or first rounder. I like the overall package of frame, very athletic delivery, quick arm, multiple spins, velocity, willingness to pitch guys inside, mostly quality or better performances...


That very well could be. My bro in law coached for Arkansas last season and I caught a bunch of their games. Every time I saw Campbell he was constantly missing his spots with his heater. It was a season long thing.

It's also possible he tweaked something in his delivery to help this out, because his walk numbers are way down this year. Something to watch going forward as he goes heavy into SEC competition now.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:07 am

The latest K. McDaniel chat on Fangraphs:

Ben M: It feels like to date we aren’t getting the same type of negative reports on the high schoolers that caused players like gorman to slide last year. Is that accurate?

Kiley McDaniel: Not a question I get very often. I think Gorman may have stood out more because he was a top 10 overall prospect for us wire to wire but had some clear deficiencies that got a little worse during the spring

Kiley McDaniel: That said, we kept him in the top 10 (we settled on him at 7th, he went 19th overall) because we thought those things were fixable and the strengths were too good to pass up

Kiley McDaniel: So I wouldn’t say that was a unique amount of negative info on a top prospect. We have said Abrams probably can’t play SS longterm, Witt has real hit tool questions, Espino has a really long arm stroke and may throw too hard too early, etc. which is on par with the Gorman stuff


shf9: What’s going on with Carter Stewart? He’s falling fast down your draft rankings.

Kiley McDaniel: two quick draft questions, then I’ll get to some pro stuff. The reports on Stewart are notably worse than this point last year. Around this point last year, Stewart was 93-95, touching 97 mph, flashing a 70 curveball and showing starter traits. Now he’s mostly 90-93, touching 97 but not in the strike zone, curveball is flashing 60 and the body/delivery/command have regressed. The main concern about the wrist last summer is the quality of the breaking ball would regress and that has happened along with some athleticism, which is likely unrelated. Could still bounce back, but he’s a clear tier lower now


Hunter Bishop: Could I go as high as 3rd?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t see that, with Abrams and Witt right there, but if you keep going nuts, maybe 8-10?


JT: How does Hunter Bishop compare to Conforto when he was in college?

Kiley McDaniel: Conforto had a better approach and hit tool by a pretty good margin. Bishop has a little more raw and speed and has a chance to play CF. Conforto at draft time is still better, given the offensive track record


bubbf: I notice that Jackson Rutledge dropped a bit after you saw him in person. What did you see that led to him sinking down The Board?

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t pitch with much conviction, kinda sailed on pure ability for me and others have seen the same thing. control over command that wasn’t punished much vs. lesser hitters, doesn’t seem to have the mentality/aggression to relieve, which may be the best use of his ability. Lots of size and stuff and it comes out easy, but not sure what it will be
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:47 pm

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:22 am



I think he has the most raw power in this draft class. It's a good swing and hit tool as well.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:33 am


Good company. The one guy above Rece Hinds on that list is 2018 draft pick Blaze Alexander (who has an absolute cannon for an arm). Fangraphs gave him a grade 80 under arm strength and some scouts preferred him as a pitcher over SS.

Not sure if Hinds can stick at 3B, but having a plus arm definitely helps.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:17 pm

I don’t think Hinds has an overly serious shot at sticking to 3B. In his defense, he may be the best or the highest ceiling hitter in the draft.


——

LHP Reggie Crawford’s season starts today, so might get some updates there. RHP Riley Cornelio from Colorado, one of the handful legitimately interesting HS RHSP prospects, opened his season hitting 93 with command. He’s very loose and projectable with aptitude for three pitches including maybe the best curve in the HS class and a high spin four seam.

——

Nick Lodolo threw 116 pitches in another strong outing last week, which is pretend noteworthy because of the day and age. He remains the only pitcher that for sure I’d love to see the Cubs use their first on. He was reportedly sitting 92-95 with some 96s during this start, throwing three different offspeeds (slider, curve, changeup)...I think BA bumped him up to 11th for updated rankings
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:08 pm

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:31 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Mock draft: https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... ock-draft/

27 Cubs: Kameron Misner Missouri OF

Why It Makes Sense: The Cubs built their team on the back of productive college bats selected early in the draft, and Misner has a track record of hitting in the Southeastern Conference that stacks up with anyone. He’s coming off of a .360/.497/.576 campaign that would have been even more impressive if not for a foot injury that cut his season short by six weeks. Misner also has a solid wood bat track record and showed he could hit for power without aluminum in his hands when he hit eight home runs in 38 games during the summer of 2017 in the New England Collegiate League.


I really wish this was still a possibility. Misner is an incredible athlete and rising like crazy. Have been told Cubs' scouts have seen him (and probably really like him), but we realistically have no shot at him now.

The only tool that is currently projected to be below-average is the hit tool (which is a big deal) on Fangraphs, but I bet it gets updated to a projected 50 sometime soon. MLB.com already has his hit tool projected as a 55. His projected raw power is a 70. Runs well and has a strong arm. Not a perfect comp, but I've heard his upside is similar to a lefty-hitting George Springer.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:31 am



I don't really care about RHP Brett Thomas, but that video is awesome. It's so much easier to break down a swing and pitching mechanics this way. Great upgrade.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 30, 2019 8:07 am









Still like Campbell as a potential RH version of Montgomery, Cronin’s a decent LHRP prospect
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:29 am




Fangraphs draft profile on Nico Hoerner:
Hit: 35/55
Game: 30/40
Raw: 50/50
Speed: 70/70
Field: 45/50
Arm: 50/50

Fangraphs draft profile on Braden Shewmake:
Hit: 35/55
Game: 25/45
Raw: 45/50
Speed: 55/50
Field: 45/50
Arm: 55/55

So I've been meaning to write this post for awhile. Guess I was just waiting for him to heat up and post better stats. He reminds me a lot of last year's 1st round pick Nico Hoerner. They aren't exactly alike or have the same profile, but both appeal to what the Cubs are looking for in an advanced bat. They have good swings and display great discipline. Amazing instincts and outstanding makeup. Shewmake is a coach's son and people rave about his baseball IQ, leadership and overall makeup.

Not sure if he can stick at SS and there are questions about his defensive ability just like with Hoerner. Both players are athletic, but Hoerner is the better athlete. Shewmake has the stronger arm. He has 6 SB so far this season without getting caught. That probably has more to do with his good instincts and that shouldn't be a big part of his game later on. He definitely isn't as fast as Hoerner and will probably slow down even more as he matures.

On the plus side, he's much bigger at 6'4" and has room to fill out and get stronger. He bats lefthanded. Just like with Hoerner, the team that drafts him will probably want to tinker with the swing a little bit and get him to hit at a higher launch angle. It's a pretty flat swing and he doesn't try to hit for power. Shewmake goes opposite field often and has a good approach. Has hit over .300 every season in college. Really good prospect who's a lock for the first round in my opinion.

Not sure if he'll make it to the Cubs right now. I'm sure there are GMs/Presidents of MLB teams wondering how Nico Hoerner fell so far in the draft last year and why their scouting departments had him ranked so low. There are a lot of good hitters in this draft class (and definitely some with higher upsides) so maybe he'll fall on draft day and the Cubs will have a chance.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:42 pm

Regular Show wrote:


Fangraphs draft profile on Nico Hoerner:
Hit: 35/55
Game: 30/40
Raw: 50/50
Speed: 70/70
Field: 45/50
Arm: 50/50

Fangraphs draft profile on Braden Shewmake:
Hit: 35/55
Game: 25/45
Raw: 45/50
Speed: 55/50
Field: 45/50
Arm: 55/55

So I've been meaning to write this post for awhile. Guess I was just waiting for him to heat up and post better stats. He reminds me a lot of last year's 1st round pick Nico Hoerner. They aren't exactly alike or have the same profile, but both appeal to what the Cubs are looking for in an advanced bat. They have good swings and display great discipline. Amazing instincts and outstanding makeup. Shewmake is a coach's son and people rave about his baseball IQ, leadership and overall makeup.

Not sure if he can stick at SS and there are questions about his defensive ability just like with Hoerner. Both players are athletic, but Hoerner is the better athlete. Shewmake has the stronger arm. He has 6 SB so far this season without getting caught. That probably has more to do with his good instincts and that shouldn't be a big part of his game later on. He definitely isn't as fast as Hoerner and will probably slow down even more as he matures.

On the plus side, he's much bigger at 6'4" and has room to fill out and get stronger. He bats lefthanded. Just like with Hoerner, the team that drafts him will probably want to tinker with the swing a little bit and get him to hit at a higher launch angle. It's a pretty flat swing and he doesn't try to hit for power. Shewmake goes opposite field often and has a good approach. Has hit over .300 every season in college. Really good prospect who's a lock for the first round in my opinion.

Not sure if he'll make it to the Cubs right now. I'm sure there are GMs/Presidents of MLB teams wondering how Nico Hoerner fell so far in the draft last year and why their scouting departments had him ranked so low. There are a lot of good hitters in this draft class (and definitely some with higher upsides) so maybe he'll fall on draft day and the Cubs will have a chance.


This is a reaaaaaally deep draft for college hitters. Plays right into the strength of this FO.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:52 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:This is a reaaaaaally deep draft for college hitters. Plays right into the strength of this FO.


Yeah, I mentioned that a few posts back and how pitching is pretty lackluster in this draft. It'd be nice if there was more pitching at the top just so it could push some of the polished college bats down.

I was hoping to get some input from UK, but he's been MIA. I mentioned this to Raisin, but it feels like a lot of the posters that normally engage in this thread are missing. Even Raisin is super busy right now and hasn't been posting much. Hopefully he posts some BA content once he gets some free time.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:29 am

From the latest Klaw chat:

Mac: Is Nick Lodolo going to pitch himself into the top 10 picks?
Keith Law: Possible but I would not take him there.


Keith Law: BTW I’ll be at the NHSI tournament this week, along with Kiley from Fangraphs and some of the BA guys. Top prospects there include Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Rece Hinds, Brennan Malone, Kendall Williams, and Jack Leiter.


Ted: Is it too soon to conclude that Oakland completely blew it by drafting Beck and Murray with top 10 picks in the past 2 drafts?
Keith Law: Too soon on Beck but he looks terrible. Murray, I just don’t know what they knew at the time, but I know our draft experts at ESPN didn’t think Murray was going to be a first rounder, much less a potential #1 overall pick. (me, not a football fan: “Oh, like Dan Wilkinson? Or Ki-Jana Carter?”)

This isn't really related to this year's draft, but I wanted to include it. Saw a pretty funny tweet the other day saying the A's were planning on taking Ja Morant in this year's draft lol.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:29 am


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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:41 pm


So that means Adley Rutschman is probably getting $7.5 mil from Baltimore.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:02 pm


So the Cubs have the fifth smallest bonus pool for the 2019 MLB draft. Their pick at #27 has a slot value of $2,570,100. Arizona has a bunch of picks and a crazy large bonus pool this year.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:46 pm

Man, everyone is very down on this year’s draft.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:24 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Man, everyone is very down on this year’s draft.


That always happens around this time when scouts are looking for flaws and breaking down prospects and preparing to rank them. Yeah, the pitching really sucks and I wouldn't be super psyched if my team had a top 10 pick this year.

Still, there are a bunch of really good college hitters. Some HS bats with high ceilings (and high risk) like Rece Hinds. The Cubs will probably load up on hitting prospects again in this draft.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:32 am


Great video. I've watched a lot of SS Nasim Nunez and he's outstanding defensively. Really strong arm and capable of making every kind of throw. Rising up draft boards.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:45 am

Switch hitter too ^
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:50 am

Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Man, everyone is very down on this year’s draft.


That always happens around this time when scouts are looking for flaws and breaking down prospects and preparing to rank them. Yeah, the pitching really sucks and I wouldn't be super psyched if my team had a top 10 pick this year.

Still, there are a bunch of really good college hitters. Some HS bats with high ceilings (and high risk) like Rece Hinds. The Cubs will probably load up on hitting prospects again in this draft.


Yeah, it might be the dearth of pitching causing this but most draft writers have stated this is a weaker draft than the normal weak ones.
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