2019 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:15 pm

After college baseball's opening week, it looks like West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah and Elon RHP George Kirby might be the biggest risers in this year's draft:

West Virginia righty Alek Manoah started the season ranked 44th on our latest rankings but will be higher in the re-rank next week after a loud season debut vs. Kennesaw State. The report on Manoah coming into this game was that he didn’t have the starter traits needed to comfortably see him turning a lineup over multiple times, but flashed two plus pitches in his mid-90s heater and slider. There was also some thought that he may need to watch his weight. His body composition was strong and likely contributed to improved feel to go along with the same high octane stuff: he sat 95-97 mph and located a 65-grade slider, occasionally mixing in an average changeup over the first few innings.

Manoah still had some reliever tendencies but they didn’t seem like long-term issues. Kennesaw State couldn’t hit 94-97 mph up in the zone, so Manoah just kept throwing it there and getting results. In pro ball, he’ll need to mix it up more, but you can’t blame him for taking the shortest path to 13 K’s over 6 innings. He held his stuff, sitting 93-96 just before he exited the game, and while his fastball was more of a blunt instrument, he showed good feel for locating his slider for a strike on his arm side and burying it as a chase pitch to his glove side. His control was average to slightly above and you can project the command to average if you believe he can be more precise with his fastball when he needs to be. When Manoah got in trouble a couple times, he kept his composure and worked his way out of it. Chatting with scouts and comparing this new version of Manoah to other players we just ranked, it seems like he’ll move into the 20’s along with rising, massive college arms like Jackson Rutledge and Miller.


On the other hand, our 58th-ranked prospect, Elon righty George Kirby, had lots of preseason late first round buzz and will now move into that range when we update our rankings next week. This week, he was up to 96, showing three above average-to-plus pitches and starter traits.


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/our-week-1- ... ing-notes/
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:07 pm


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSN3zsVqA1Q
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:17 pm


I've started doing research on draft prospects and watching video when I can.

1B/3B prospect Brett Baty is a weird player to evaluate. He doesn't look great defensively at 3B and looks pretty bad running to first. I don't think he sticks at 3B currently. Also, he's bigger than what he's listed at right now (6'3" and 210 lbs.) and will probably slow down even more as he matures. He doesn't look like a great athlete, but then you watch him play basketball and he's surprisingly agile and quick on the court. He looks pretty good. I have a hard time figuring that out...



----

The swing is great and I have little doubt on the bat being good enough to get drafted in the 1st round. The problem is if he's playing 1B in the future (or has to move there eventually) then the bat has to be really special. I mean it could be and he's really performed against some tough pitching. He also has a strong accurate arm and has reached 90 mph on the mound.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbP6H3vlIYM
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:19 pm

Baty’s 20 this Fall. Teams are going to want to know what the deal is there considering JC guys can be that young and there are even college juniors only a little bit older than him.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:05 pm

Given Theo's propensity to draft dudes who just mash, I'll bring up Ole Miss junior Thomas Dillard (C/OF) as a name to watch the rest of the year. He led the nation in HR his high school senior year.

So far this year after 7 games he's at:

.522/.607/1.217, 23 AB, 12 hits, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, 15 RBI, 5 BB, and 2 SB.

This one on Saturday to take the lead in the 9th was obliterated.

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:55 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs ... the-board/

Jackson Rutledge and Alek Manoah both look more starter-ish and have maintained their plus stuff. Graeme Stinson’s velo was down in his starting debut and scouts are concerned. Logan Davidson’s hit tool has always been a question and it still is. Michael Toglia was too passive in Kiley’s look this weekend and his righty swing leaves a lot to be desired. J.J. Bleday looks more athletic than some expected. Hunter Barco has a higher slot and firmer stuff. Seth Johnson was up to 98 mph in his season debut and many think he can start. Carter Stewart had a really rough start after a couple that were fine. J.J. Goss has had better velocity and consistency than teammate Matthew Thompson.

Hunter Bishop, Brett Baty and Rece Hinds have all hit more than expected and all have huge power; one likely ends up in the first round. Hunter Gaddis is generating buzz early, showing both above average stuff and feel. Brandon Williamson and Drey Jamison were mentioned last week in Eric’s Arizona looks as deserving of the Top 100; Grant Gambrell was the top new arm he saw this week. Tyler Dyson and Ryan Zeferjahn have both come out of the gate slowly; Dyson is joined in that regard by teammates Austin Langworthy and Wil Dalton. JuCo righty Orlando Ribalta has been up to 97 and shown starter traits, gaining steam with scouts despite not pitching last season.


So they mention a few other players at the beginning of the article. Adley Rutchsman has been moved up to a 60 FV (very surprising), and has now established himself as the clear #1 player in this year's draft class. Also, updated the list on THE BOARD.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:25 am

Not even sure I give a horsefeathers anymore but here’s a totally worthwhile Friday night post:



He’s the college arm that interests me.

He and Reggie Crawford are the 2019 pitchers I was most looking forward to following this Spring, Glenallen Hill Jr. and Toglia among bats
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:04 pm


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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:54 pm




-----


I'm very high on LHP Asa Lacy. I really like this pitcher and think he's improved a lot since HS. Not sure where he's listed in the early 2020 Draft rankings. Hope he stays healthy.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:20 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs ... gs-update/

Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung and Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday both have some buzz in the industry as being in the mix to be the third-best college bat behind Oregon State C Adley Rutschman and Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn (both recent risers themselves); Jung and Bleday have moved up to reflect this. Bleday is off to a quick start and looks more athletic than he has in the past, while Jung is a hit-first type who could improve considerably with more loft in his swing in pro ball, but compares favorably to some recent top-10 overall college bats. Others college bats in that mix are UNLV SS Bryson Stott, North Carolina LF Michael Busch, and the big riser in the last update, Missouri RF Kameron Misner.

North Carolina State SS Will Wilson is also a rising player, as a potential 5 hit, 5 power middle infielder who likely ends up at second base. Some scouts see plus makeup and versatility with a chance that he may end up catching in pro ball and being an Austin Barnes or Will Smith type who can play every position on the field. Wilson’s polish, performance, and fit in today’s game could push him into the top 15 picks.

Clemson SS Logan Davidson and UNC-Wilmington SS Greg Jones each face questions about their hit tool, but Jones stays slightly ahead of Davidson because his upside is still much higher. On the flip side, Arizona State LF Hunter Bishop has 7 raw power and 6 speed and is hitting much better this year, so he’s rising until further notice.

Duke LHP Graeme Stinson looked like the clear top pitcher in the class when the college season was set to start, with scouts having confidence that his mid-90s fastball and 70 slider could transition to starting full-time. He’s performed well, but the velocity has kept creeping down — he was into the 80s this weekend — to the point where scouts are openly questioning if there’s an arm problem or if Stinson simply can’t start and needs to be seen as a reliever going forward. Even a worst-case scenario still has him in the top 30 picks or so, but his stock has dipped a good bit.


I can almost guarantee the Cubs are taking a bat in this upcoming draft. This draft class is really lacking in the pitching department. I've said this before and this is just my opinion, but I think we suck at identifying/developing pitching prospects. It's just not one of our strengths...
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:27 pm

From the latest K. McDaniel chat on Fangraphs:

SEC Guy: Thomas Dillard at Ole Miss has started off on a tear. I gather than positional limitations are a strike against him, but if he keeps mashing, could be make an appearance on the draft Board? Maybe a 2nd/3rd rounder?


Kiley McDaniel: He is on THE BOARD in the others of note, for we have noticed his hot start and I’ve always been a fan. Another 65 or 70 raw power type from both sides of the plate but has some bat speed, it isn’t just pure strength. Unfortunately can’t really catch so it’s probably a 1B fit, thus he needs to mash and have more BB than K in college, but maybe that’s happening. Could be a 40 in another month or so


LioneeR: I live near Southern Miss stadium. Does Southern Miss or any CUSA teams have any prospects that would be worth a watch?

Kiley McDaniel: So. Miss has RF/RHP Matt Wallner, who some clubs prefer as a pitcher, but a scout this week told me also has 80 raw power (I’ve seen 65-70 in the past)…so that’s pretty rare to have just around the corner. He’s had forearm issues tho, so has just been DHing lately


Mark: I guess I was more asking “do you think any high school pitchers *will* jump into the top 5?


Kiley McDaniel: No


Kiley McDaniel: really strong year for bats, weaker year for pitching. almost every team, all else being equal, wants bat over pitcher


Kiley McDaniel: and they’re getting it this year
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:29 pm

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:03 pm

Hunter Bishop went at least 2/3 with a double and a couple RBIs last night, staying hot. Only mentioning it because there’s something Heyward-ish in his general profile as a 6’5” LHH capable of playing CF but probably best suited for RF in the pros. He struggled in the Cape twice and didn't click as a hitter until this Spring, seems notable

Michael Toglia showed a pulse with a 2/4 night including a bases loaded triple. He’d been hitless for four straight games and has struggled big this year. I'd still love for the Cubs to draft him, maybe Theo's Plan can help unlock his upside potential development ceiling and turn him into Lance Berkman or something cool.

——

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:11 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-2019-d ... s-updates/

Andrew Vaughn is now solidly No. 2 on the list and we’ve added a Top 100 ranking for him (52nd, just behind Mets 1B Peter Alonso). Vaughn has a little less raw power than Alonso, but the hit tool, frame, and defense are all superior, to go along with Vaughn being younger and also having comparable-to-better pitch selection. We still have Oregon State C Adley Rutschman solidly at No. 1 and well ahead of Vaughn (Rutschman would be 17th on the top 100), but catchers’ development paths are notoriously non-linear, so there is a little more uncertainty with Rutschman.
We were the high guys on UNLV SS Bryson Stott after a down summer because we saw him dominate in the previous spring. That faith has been rewarded with Stott’s hot start, so he’s stayed steady on our board at No. 5, just behind the top four players, though he’s rising for some in the industry with less history. There’s a similar story for Orlando-area prep RF Riley Greene, who showed more swing and miss late in the summer for some scouts, but has been blazing hot early and has an improved physique. He’s rising for many scouts but doesn’t have much further up to go for us.
The second tier of college bats behind Rutschman, Vaughn, and Stott is coming into focus, with North Carolina LF Michael Busch and Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung holding their spots, UCLA 1B Michael Toglia falling dramatically, Baylor C Shea Langeliers breaking his hamate, and Missouri RF Kameron Misner joining Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday in taking their spots. Bleday and Misner both have the look of above average regulars, with Bleday having more hit tool and Misner with more raw power.
On my current trip, I saw Arizona State LF Hunter Bishop twice. He has been going insane at the plate. He’s now solidly in the first round, with a chance to move into the top half if he continues at this rate (.414/.534/.948, 8 HR in 15 games) because the tools are real (65 raw power, 60 speed). Tonight, I’ll see Houston-area prep RHP Matthew Thompson, who is trending up after a velo dip, and was 93-96 mph in his last start. Wednesday, I’m planning to see dual-sport prep CFs Maurice Hampton and Jerrion Ealy in a tournament in Biloxi, Mississippi, where Hampton hit a homer on his first swing of the season. On Thursday (crosses fingers), there’s a great triple-up back in Houston, with JuCo RHP Jackson Rutledge at 2 pm, popup prep RHP Josh Wolf at 5 pm, and Thompson’s teammate RHP J.J. Goss at 7 pm; all three are projected for the top 50 picks right now. Wolf isn’t a new name, but his velo has spiked and he’s now just behind Thompson and Goss in the Houston prep arm hierarchy.


There is more in the link above and I didn't post the full thing. I'm really happy they're making these updates almost a weekly thing now.

They talk about SS Nasim Nunez and rising prospect 3B Keoni Cavaco. I occasionally chat with UK about draft prospects (and politics). I've liked Nunez for a few months now and mentioned him a few months ago while chatting with UK. UK said he's a rising prospect who could potentially be a "Dee Gordon-type hitter with better defense who sticks at SS" I believe. He's maybe the best defensive infielder in this draft class and a switch-hitter. Honestly, he just needs to get stronger and add some muscle. I don't think he's getting much bigger or an additional growth spurt, but that's okay. The power tool is the only tool scouts have listed as below-average. This is hyperbolic, but he kinda sorta reminds me of SS Francisco Lindor (from back in HS).
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:16 pm

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:14 am

Here’s a colleg arm I like for outside the first:

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:11 am


Intriguing arm, but we're definitely taking an advanced bat in the first round. Too many good hitters in this draft.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:49 pm


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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:25 pm



Well, that sucks. Keith Law says Stewart still has the sick curveball, but it doesn't have the same power and tilt. More of a grade 60 CB. The fastball is down into the low-90's and the command is shaky. Still a first round pick, but probably more towards the end of the 1st round. He still has time to rebound. I think he's falling because his stuff is down, but also because of how many talented hitters there are in this draft.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:37 pm



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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:45 pm

Nick Lodolo was dominant last night (7 IP, 13 Ks, 1 H). I don’t really see him as a candidate for the Cubs, likely gone before that, but he seems to be developing as hoped. There might be more fastball velocity to be mined out in the pros.

Rutlege is a short armer, or at least is one throwing the slider in that one clip. That’s a turn off

I like Stewart more than last year. His delivery is better, he is bigger and stronger, but still needs years of development. He still has trouble repeating his delivery and needs to do a better job establishing his four seam. I like that he has avoided surgery, hopefully he keeps it that way. I don’t believe the Cubs are looking at college pitchers up top, but if he or Lodolo were available maybe they get tempted.

——

Some questions from BA’s recent draft chat:

MattyD (Toronto): Do you see Hunter Bishop as a centerfielder or more of a corner guy, and if the latter, how do you grade his throwing arm?

Carlos Collazo: He’s bigger than the conventional center fielder, but he’s a plus runner and I’ve heard he can handle himself well at the position. He makes good reads and will be one of the few legit center fielders at the top of this draft class. Unless the team who drafts him has a vastly different opinion of his defensive abilities, he’ll be a guy who’s put in center field and stays there until he’s forced off the position. The arm sounds solid as well.


Howie (CTown): Can Nasim Nunez be a poor man's Lindor? What's missing from the profile at the same stage (remembering that Lindor was not expected to have this much power when drafted).

Carlos Collazo: There are probably a lot of guys that have gotten to more power in this major league environment who weren’t expected to during their draft year. Lindor’s tools across the board sound better just looking at our draft report on him at the time. I can’t speak specifically to what he was like back then, as I was in high school at the time and not covering the draft. Nunez is one of the best defensive shortstops in the class, and that’s where they seem most similar, but he’s quite a bit behind where Lindor was thought to be because of the offense. Still sounds like a Day 1 guy though.


MattyD (Toronto):How do you compare Jackson Rutledge at the same stage to a guy like Nate Pearson. He doesn't seem to throw as hard, but the breaking balls is apparently further along. Is that more or less accurate?

Carlos Collazo: Rutledge does throw around as hard as Pearson during his draft year. And I’ve consistently heard that the slider is a true plus pitch, putting it ahead of what Pearson was working with at the time. Pearson’s plus secondary offering was a changeup. The biggest difference in the two seems to be in their athleticism and strike throwing ability, with Pearson holding the advantage in those categories, though given the draft class Rutledge could easily end up being selected sooner.


Roger (Washington DC): How close is Maurice Hampton to climbing into upper half of 1st round? What separates him from fellow HS OF Early and Greene at this point?

Carlos Collazo: Hampton just got started recently and homered in his first game. He's looked really good for a while now. Ealy might have the better toolset (speed, raw power, arm) but Hampton seems to have the better offensive approach. Both still have high upside and are probably going to fit closer to each other on our next update. Ealy has some approach issues to iron out and is the bigger risk to pursue football based on what I'm hearing.


——

I think this just might be the year they take a HS pitcher first. I expect all the best hitters are going to get taken before the Cubs’ pick, Toglia might end up going back to school if he doesn’t go high enough, HS pitchers are out of style enough that a tippy top talent might fall, and he’d be in the same age range to track with the next wave of talent. Reggie Crawford was my favorite, though he’s not necessarily a first round player right now, but I might have a new one in 6’3” RHP Alex McFarlane (from Georgia via the Virgin Islands):



The way he uses his lower body reminds me of Roy Oswalt. He’s also considered a draftable OF prospect

So the HS pitchers that have stood out a little more to me: LHP Crawford, RHP McFarlane, RHP Quinn Priester, and LHP Paul Labriola

——



That’s Isaiah Campbell, the college RH I mentioned a couple posts up, throwing an 85 MPH changeup. I like him as a multi-inning reliever type more than a pure SP, but that’s not really a knock. 21 YO senior
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:24 pm

LHP Nick Bennett from Louisville is another college arm I would be into the Cubs drafting outside the first:

https://gocards.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=9385

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:01 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:


That’s Isaiah Campbell, the college RH I mentioned a couple posts up, throwing an 85 MPH changeup. I like him as a multi-inning reliever type more than a pure SP, but that’s not really a knock. 21 YO senior


I watched a lot of Campbell last year and his fastball command was not good. Always possible that he changed something up and has improved there, but I really don't like those types if it can be avoided.
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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:16 pm

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Re: 2019 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:44 am

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Pla ... ?ID=599947

Matthew Lugo is a 2019 SS/2B with a 6-1 185 lb. frame from Manati, PR who attends Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy. Outstanding high waisted projectable athletic build. 6.46 runner, very light on his feet defensively, has a very quick first step with quick twitch actions and is fast and light on his feet, stays balanced well with smooth hands and a quick transfer, charges the ball well. Right handed hitter, hits from a wide base with good rhythm to his swing, loose swing with good extension and plenty of present bat speed, smooth and projectable with very sound present hitting mechanics to help him grow. Very good student, verbal commitment to Miami. Nephew of former MLB star Carlos Beltran. Selected to play in the 2018 Perfect Game All-American Classic.


Huh... I did not know he was Carlos Beltran's nephew. Good balanced swing. A solid all-around prospect and I'm surprised how low he is currently on THE BOARD! over at Fangraphs. Good target for the second round if he falls that far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&v=hMpoRPWnZ6c
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