2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:39 am

craig wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:I’m totally cool with how this draft is going if they sign Kimbrel. Otherwise this is pretty boring


Tom is totally cool!


Yeah and really with all the stupid rules and spending caps, it’s a good draft. Without any actual games to shrink this pool considerably these guys stand out for me for one thing or another:

Jensen
Hearn
Herz
Mack
Schlaffer
Hodge
Laskey
Hill
Collier
Byrd
Combs
Patterson
Auer - Of the HS players drafted in the 30s or outside the top ten even, I’d most like to sign him
Davis
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:54 am


Short recap for the Cubs' draft picks 1-10. It's only 2 minutes long. Interesting stuff on Schlaffer. Kiley says Strumpf can be an everyday guy with some swing tweaks.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Brian » Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:45 pm



I will never call him DJ, he is forever Davidjohn
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:51 pm

Some Q's or things I'm interested in, or thoughts:
1. Will be interesting to see how much over Hearn, Herz, and Schlaffer sign for.
2. Given that they call and discuss $$ before selecting anybody, and based on recent history, pretty much a lock that the first 20 guys are all going to get signed. And that nobody HS in the 30's will.
3. It will be interesting to find out how old Clark really is. College junior, the draft sites list him as having been only 19 last month, just turning 20. *IF* that's really true, then I'm especially intrigued. But I suspect that may not actually be correct, and that one false listing got copied everywhere else? But *IF* it's actually true, and his UCLA success was as a teenager, plus he's so smart that his parents had him skipping one or two grades, I'm curious to see whether he'll both be smart enough to get the absolute max out of the talent he's got, and whether he might still add velocity and skill.
4. I'm also really curious to see which if any of the relievers get used as starters next year. I'd guess probably all of them; even if their future is in relief and the Cubs expect nothing different, they still may want to give them the regular scheduled innings that a starter has, and the usage and development of all their pitches.
5. I'm also really curious to see how many innings they give to the relievers this summer. Usually with a college starter, they've already burned 90+ innings during the spring, and the Cubs are very limited in adding more. So for most college starters, it's <15 pro innings during draft summer. But for the relievers who only pitched 30-50 innings, I wonder if they might be more interested in giving them 15-25 innings this very summer?
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Brian » Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:53 pm

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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:06 pm


We covered this on our post draft podcast review of all 30 clubs, but it’s worth pointing out a few clubs that stood out for their strategy with their higher picks.

We thought there were more signable six-figure high school prospects in this draft than usual, and some teams clearly targeted that demographic during day two. After beginning their draft with several college players, some of whom will likely be underslot signs, the Cubs drafted three likely overslot high schoolers on the second half of Day 2. They took a similar approach both last year and the year they drafted Kyle Schwarber and Dylan Cease, though this year’s prep group is a little less splashy from a scouting/projection perspective, and more interesting from a player dev point of view.


Waiting for Raisin to make a 2020 MLB Draft Thread because there is a lot of relevant info on that (and later draft classes) in here. The Cubs definitely had an interesting strategy this year and were clearly targeting pitchers. Not sure if that was wise (considering the quality of pitching in this draft), but I like most of the pitchers the Cubs targeted. We'll see how this strategy works out in a couple years.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:58 pm

One thing I find interesting about the Cubs’ draft is all the multi-sport preps. They drafted 12 HS players and among them Herz, Letzgus, Collier, Bingham, and Auer played at least football. Collier and Bingham were recruited as football and baseball players, the first two played three sports in HS, Auer deadlifted 505# this spring...
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:20 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:One thing I find interesting about the Cubs’ draft is all the multi-sport preps. They drafted 12 HS players and among them Herz, Letzgus, Collier, Bingham, and Auer played at least football. Collier and Bingham were recruited as football and baseball players, the first two played three sports in HS, Auer deadlifted 505# this spring...

Is it really that rare for guys who are draft prospects out of HS to be good athletes in HS at other sports? I don’t really think it is. I get there’s a theme with the guys we took but I don’t think it’s that unique
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:06 am



I keep reading his best secondary pitch is a changeup (which is awesome). It always seems like it's harder to teach a pitcher how to throw a good changeup vs. teaching them how to throw a good slider/cutter. A good delivery from the little I've seen. The fastball has some good movement already. Solid frame (6'2" & 170 lbs.) and it looks like he can add some more muscle.

I can't wait to talk to a local scout who's seen him on the mound.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:25 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Is it really that rare for guys who are draft prospects out of HS to be good athletes in HS at other sports? I don’t really think it is. I get there’s a theme with the guys we took but I don’t think it’s that unique


Nah, common especially since these guys aren’t prospects in their other sports, but feels like the Cubs emphasized it a little more this year. Basketball’s been sneaking in a little more the past couple drafts along with the more typical football

Speaking of...Manny Collier told his local paper he would probably sign while Jayson Hoopes will definitely not
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:54 am



“Pro Day at Wrigley was amazing and a moment I really had to take in. Just having that sense you’re playing in a stadium that is in a neighborhood, honestly feels like you’re at home. When I stepped on the field you could see all the rich history from the ivy wall to the World Series Championship in 2016. I was extremely excited when I got the invite and tried to take in every moment of it. After the pro select day, I told my parents “this is where I wanna play ball and get drafted” and luckily it turned out that way and I’ve very blessed and ready to make the best out of my opportunity.”

My Fastball and Curveball have always been my go to pitches. I have been playing for the best teams and the best competition when I was 8-16 and that was all I threw. We would always long toss the with 4-Seam Grip and the curveball always just came natural. Going into my senior year, I knew I had to develop a changeup even though I didn’t need it in High School ball but I needed it down the road. So I non-stop long tossed with my changeup grip and I used it a few times in high school but once I feel as I fix up my mechanics and master my changeup I will be somewhat of a complete pitcher.”


This is the only video I can find of him pitching. Not a great angle, but I can kinda see the throwing across the body issue mentioned in scouting reports and he throws slightly crossfire towards home plate. It's hard to break it down without better quality and a better angle and pitch velos. Here it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIDQeZ4QiH8
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:38 pm

https://twitter.com/Savermetrics?ref_sr ... r%5Eauthor

For reference, Wes Saver twitter where he collects lots of comments from or regarding Cub selections.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:30 pm


The Cubs took the hardest-throwing starter in the draft with 6-foot right-hander Ryan Jensen (1), who hits 100 mph and frequently sits 97-99, with an average slider and solid control. Everyone wants to stick him in the bullpen because he's short and throws hard, but he has the ability to hold that velocity deep into games as a starter. Chase Strumpf (2) could have been a first-rounder had he had a better year for UCLA; he's a shortstop who'll move to second base and did have a first-round kind of spring in 2018 as a sophomore, hitting for average and power with a slightly better contact rate.

Louisville right-hander Mike McAvene (3) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2018 and was the team's closer this spring. He's 92-96 with both a slider and changeup even out of the bullpen, so he could be stretched out to start -- although he has some effort and he lost his command in his second inning the night I saw him this spring.

USC right-hander Chris Clarke (4) is another college reliever who had Tommy John surgery. He throws 92-95 with good sink and also has a slider and curveball, both in the low 80s. He could end up starting although I get the sense the Cubs wanted to take fast-moving relievers. Washington right-hander Josh Burgmann (5) really competes with fringy to below-average stuff, 89-92 with a clearly below-average changeup. He's yet another post-Tommy John prospect. Alabama prep catcher Ethan Hearn (6) came into the year as a below-average receiver with bad hands behind the plate but improved over the course of the spring both in catching and throwing after working on it in the offseason. He's still more of a power over hit guy at the plate. He'll turn 19 in August.

Davidjohn Herz (8) was seen as a very tough sign due to his commitment to UNC. He's a right-hander and quarterback, up to 94, very athletic, but fairly raw as a pitcher because he plays three sports.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:35 pm

Ryan Jensen’s secret weapon is this dirty ass changeup:

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Go ahead and become harder throwing Tim Hudson, guy! Not Joe Kelly, please!
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:03 am

I really need to remind myself to be disciplined and ignore posters who frustrate the hell out of me...


Cubs: Ethan Hearn, C, Mobile Christian HS (Ala.), 6th round


They chose Ethan Hearn, which seems like a weird choice to me. The more I read about him the less I like the pick. I don't think this was a good selection and HS catchers are a super dangerous demographic and have a high bust rate. Then again, it was a 6th round pick. Just depends on how much the Cubs go overslot to sign him.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:20 am

Yeah only a couple posts in this thread, several in the other draft thread, some in the MiL forums, probably some more....Real monk-like discipline

I didn’t like the Hearn pick much at first either. Power over hit is out of style right now, HS catchers are weird, and he’s not big and traditionally projectable. Still the more I read no one’s questioning his ability to catch in the long run too much yet, he was both the highest rated HS catcher and generally seen as the most balanced, and a consensus top 100 prospect. LHHs who can catch are ultra rare and the position at the ML level is starving for talent so the path to being a pretty valuable prospect is pretty clear

——

Here’s Davidjohn Herz hitting 92 from the stretch sometime this spring:

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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:15 am

Regular Show wrote:

Davidjohn Herz (8) was seen as a very tough sign due to his commitment to UNC. He's a right-hander and quarterback, up to 94, very athletic, but fairly raw as a pitcher because he plays three sports.


Keith Law, I appreciate your stuff, and I know you won't read this.... But, DavidJohn Herz is actually a lefty, not a righty!

Big difference in terms of pro career track, I think!

It's gotta be tough for these media guys, trying to act informed about hundreds of draftees, many of whom they've never seen at all or if so perhaps for one brief appearance. And to be whipping off zillions of post-draft writeups and stuff in very short order with no edit-time.
But it may also speak to how little they may know, and how modestly valuable their input is.

Herz with his weird sometimes cross-fire delivery, that might not work well for arm health or consistency. But if he can throw strikes with it, he might project very favorably as a situational lefty reliever, even if the rotation is too much for him. Hopefully he'll make it as even more than a situational lefty reliever, but it's not the worst outcome.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:30 am

craig wrote:
Regular Show wrote:

Davidjohn Herz (8) was seen as a very tough sign due to his commitment to UNC. He's a right-hander and quarterback, up to 94, very athletic, but fairly raw as a pitcher because he plays three sports.


Keith Law, I appreciate your stuff, and I know you won't read this.... But, DavidJohn Herz is actually a lefty, not a righty!

Big difference in terms of pro career track, I think!

It's gotta be tough for these media guys, trying to act informed about hundreds of draftees, many of whom they've never seen at all or if so perhaps for one brief appearance. And to be whipping off zillions of post-draft writeups and stuff in very short order with no edit-time.
But it may also speak to how little they may know, and how modestly valuable their input is.

Herz with his weird sometimes cross-fire delivery, that might not work well for arm health or consistency. But if he can throw strikes with it, he might project very favorably as a situational lefty reliever, even if the rotation is too much for him. Hopefully he'll make it as even more than a situational lefty reliever, but it's not the worst outcome.


Yeah, so Keith Law knows DJ Herz is a lefty. Just a typo and a mistake is what I think happened. It's a very large recap for every team in MLB so mistakes are bound to happen. Keith Law talks to plenty of scouts and ppl in the industry and his input is valuable. I don't always agree with his take on prospects and he's reluctant to admit when he's wrong, but he knows his stuff.

Herz definitely has a weird funky delivery and I get why scouts say he'll probably end up being a reliever. Maybe the Cubs' coaches and player development staff can correct that without a loss of stuff. The crossfire delivery makes a pitcher more deceptive and harder to face for same side hitters.

Maybe the upside for DJ Herz is like a poor man's Chris Sale?
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:22 pm

Regular Show wrote:
craig wrote:
Regular Show wrote:...It's a very large recap for every team in MLB so mistakes are bound to happen. Keith Law talks to plenty of scouts and ppl in the industry and his input is valuable. I don't always agree with his take on prospects and he's reluctant to admit when he's wrong, but he knows his stuff.

Herz definitely has a weird funky delivery and I get why scouts say he'll probably end up being a reliever. Maybe the Cubs' coaches and player development staff can correct that without a loss of stuff. The crossfire delivery makes a pitcher more deceptive and harder to face for same side hitters.

Maybe the upside for DJ Herz is like a poor man's Chris Sale?


It's hard to be a good rotation starter, so the odds of getting a good rotation starter out of an 8th round pick signing for 3rd-round money isn't very high, of course. Obviously. But yeah, we'll hope that he beats the odds and proves to be one of those.

I also agree that the delivery we've seen in the few clips is funky; agree that's maybe for better and for worse. In general, I love funky deliveries and agree that they can be deceptive, and anything unusual can make it harder on hitters. Plus certainly versus lefties, that could be really challenging, whether in rotation or in relief. But yeah, pretty obvious why scouts might see the present delivery displayed in the few clips as being well-suited towards possible LOOGY usage someday.

The challenges with funky deliveries, of course, are several. One is repeatability, consistency, and command. (If Cishek and Brach could consistently locate their side-army deliveries, for example, they'd be really good.....) If you're wild all the time, not a good recipe. Second is injury. Often weird deliveries, and the inconsistent mechanics that can result, put more strain on the arm. Third is opposite-site hitters. It's nice to have a tough slot for lefties; but will a LH crossfire-curveball guy have movement that challenges righties?

The "funky crossfire" bit displayed in a brief HS video clip doesn't at all mean that he'll use it consistently as a pro. I believe one of the reports already suggested that it was there in one viewing, not so much in another. So as a pro, he may well train himself and pitch-lab himself to a much revised delivery. A successful 25-year-old Herz might have a much more consistent and perhaps much less funky delivery, who knows?

Also possible for a guy to use different deliveries? (Cueto for example...) Consistency and command with even one is hard enough, so locating from two deliveries is harder. But it's conceivable that Herz might use a lower slot that works great versus lefties; but if that doesn't work that well versus righties, perhaps he'd use a different and higher slot versus righties?

Will be fun to see where his career goes, if he stays healthy.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:30 pm

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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:54 pm



22 YO senior, 23 in June, with maybe more projection and athleticism than typical of a senior. 6’3”, LHH, plays the MIF, hit and hit for power last year with Clemson



I like this guy already
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Re: RE: Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:45 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:
Apparently got 2m exactly
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:54 pm

Had been reference to agreeing for a deal in the low-40's range. $2.0 is in between 36/37. So maybe a little higher than I had expected.

Nice to have it done fast, that frees up a bunch of dollars, so it means they can move forward and sign/finalize overslot guys and don't need to wait on all of those.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Edith Cox » Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:49 am

MLB.com's draft tracker has Deppermann signing for 50K or 144K and change less than slot.
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Re: 2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:18 pm

Regular Show wrote:
They chose Ethan Hearn, which seems like a weird choice to me. The more I read about him the less I like the pick. I don't think this was a good selection and HS catchers are a super dangerous demographic and have a high bust rate. Then again, it was a 6th round pick. Just depends on how much the Cubs go overslot to sign him.


Much like the Jensen pick, it's not the direction I would have gone for what is likely to be the splashy mid-round overslot pick. But his offensive profile does sound an awful lot like Brennen Davis predraft last year, and the early returns on his rebuilt swing are terrific. With that plus arm and solid athleticism, he could transition fairly easily to a COF spot if the bat comes around but his receiving is still terrible.
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