2020 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
NonProfitCow
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5063
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:15 am
x 255
x 912

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby NonProfitCow » Fri May 08, 2020 11:11 pm

I could see a lot of guys signing with their favorite team. About the only silver lining I can think of.
0 x

User avatar
KingCubsFan
All-Star
Posts: 3569
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:39 pm
Location: Chicago, IL
x 4
x 89

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Sat May 09, 2020 12:03 am

NonProfitCow wrote:I could see a lot of guys signing with their favorite team. About the only silver lining I can think of.

Not sure if it will be policed, but perhaps one way to get around the cap for guys not drafted will be to give them a large minor salary. So you may end up with a permanent pay raise for minor leaguers.
0 x

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat May 09, 2020 2:32 am

KingCubsFan wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:I could see a lot of guys signing with their favorite team. About the only silver lining I can think of.

Not sure if it will be policed, but perhaps one way to get around the cap for guys not drafted will be to give them a large minor salary. So you may end up with a permanent pay raise for minor leaguers.


BA mentioned that and specifically hypothesized the Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants would be at an advantage because they’ve already announced/implemented raises.
1 x
Image

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat May 09, 2020 3:08 am

The Cubs have the 19th most bonus money with $6,721,600.

1: $3,745,500
2: $1,436,900
3: $678,600
4: $492,700
5: $367,900
1 x
Image

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat May 09, 2020 4:25 am

Huh

0 x
Image

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat May 09, 2020 4:16 pm

0 x
Image

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat May 09, 2020 5:19 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/luke_l23/status/1258779693588926465?s=21


This summary says he features 5 pitches:

http://baseballprospectjournal.com/2020 ... prospects/

Luke Little, LHP, San Jacinto (Texas) College

Luke Little is an imposing 6-8, 225-pound left-handed pitcher who displayed encouraging results in five appearances this spring. Little, whose top two pitches are his high-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, recorded a 2.00 ERA with 17 strikeouts and three walks allowed in nine innings as a sophomore at San Jacinto.

His success was an improvement over last year’s numbers when he posted a 2.04 ERA with 69 strikeouts and 36 walks allowed in 35 1/3 innings as a starter and reliever in 2019.

Little averaged 17.58 strikeouts per nine innings as a freshman. He followed that up with a 17.00 K/9 rate in his abbreviated sophomore season this spring.

Teams are familiar with Little, as he was in draft discussions last year. But his command struggles caused teams to fall short of Little’s signing bonus demands.

Although he tweaked his back and missed multiple starts this spring, Little showed improved command. He currently profiles better as a late-inning reliever but it wouldn’t shock me if a team tried him in the rotation due to his size and five-pitch mix.

Little likely will be drafted anywhere between the third to fifth round.


San Jacinto was the JC program with several draftable pitchers, including former Cubs pick Mitchell Parker...Little and Parker were committed to SEC schools, USC and Tenn, before going the JC route and were consdered tough signs...Sounds interesting, wouldn't mind if he was a more better LH Nate Pearson

From an interview after the shutdown with the same site:

“I think I’m more of a closer but a starter is more appealing in the draft,” Little said.
1 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun May 10, 2020 5:15 am

Prospects I'm higher or lower on for the Cubs today than yesterday...

Higher: Anyone who hit well in CCBL last year...Gonzales, Torkelson, Trei Cruz, Zac Deloach, Zavier Warren, Kaden Polcovich, Workman sure why not he's 20, Hayden Cantrelle, Wyatt Young, Matt Rudick, Oraj Anu sure, Alex Toral wasn't good but sure, Jordan Westburg, Jake MacKenzie, Noah Campbell, Jacob Teeter, etc...Teter would be a fun UDFA target, 6'6" 1B with an 82/80 BB:K against regular season NCAA (583 PAs) and 99/104 with CBL (763), there's 6 switch hitters just among these names so any of those guys

Lower: Aaron Sabato - 1B only defender and a weak one, no longer a switch hitter if he ever was, I like that it was a huge year but lighter track record compared to other college bats, might be riding the R/R 1B wave and is the weakest prospect in the bunch

Higher: Hudson Haskin - 6'2" RHH CF has had a highly successful internship with Tulane, hitting .363/.457/.612 with more walks than Ks, did a different wood bat league from the CCBL and stole 17 bases while hitting with power and for average

Lower: Robert Hassell - I have multiple hot takes on this guy...First, I like him more out of HS as a pitcher...Next, I think his best path to an impact bat is to bulk up and end up at first, a reverse Bellinger

Higher: Texas, Florida, and Georgia players among a couple others (Oregon, Oklahoma, Tennessee) - If you're conspiracy minded and/or stoned like myself there's definitely something to the Ricketts' letting Theo (The Epstein as Joe Ricketts calls him probably) hire a guy who drafts heavily from Texas and Florida in a year those prospects probably got more play in than most...Definitely makes you wonder and notice that I'm still awake at night

Lower: Northeast HSers - It was still smart for Bitsko to come out this year but he, Aex Santos, and Austin Hendrick probably are hurt by not getting this Spring to show their stuff and get game reps in. All these guys had momentum coming in

Higher: Ed Howard / Lower: Alika Williams - Two of the best frame + SS defense combo players in the draft, Williams might go undrafted in this format when any team in baseball would have him under even a ten round format. Howard's advanced glove as a prep gains a little more value from the shutdown, though among HSers who can defend I still like Crow-Armstrong's bat most at 16...Edit: Alika Williams is getting drafted and pretty high too, maybe the first with the Yankees a possibility

Higher: Patrick Bailey, Michael Rothenberg - Two switch hitting college catchers, one that should go in the top 10 (to the Rockies if they're lucky and smart), the other a possible 3-5 guy or priority UDFA

Lower: HS catchers - Not a group I'd expect the Cubs to be in on anyway, I like Daniel Susac but don't think anyone will sign him

Higher: HS LHPs - I'd be happy to walk away any of Tiedemann, Fulton, Manning, Bruno or Cotto depending on the round, Tiedemann might secretly be the third best prep arm right now, Caden Grice seemed interesting more as a 1B, Ryan Bruno's got SP potential, Ryan Steifuk is going to throw hard

Lower: HS RHPs - Thought they were a jumble after Abel and Kelley already, not big on Bitsko for some reason unless Theo drafts him and prefer Witt's bat maybe, Rosario, Guilliams, and Hence are interesting for a team with say a Pitching Lab filled with science, math, and technology...Down on Santos and Mederos...Actually think I like Justin Lange more than Bitsko too, but worried about his raw offspeeds

Also Tanner Burns > Max Meyers
Lotta nonsense
2 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

Named After Maddux
Starter
Posts: 280
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:03 am
x 126
x 71

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Wed May 13, 2020 2:19 pm

Law’s mock on The Athletic dropped today.

16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

The Cubs also have a new scouting director this year in Dan Kantrovitz, although I don’t think there’s a big change in direction coming just yet given how heavy this draft is on college pitching.


That’s the second national writer to recently connect the Cubs to Tanner Burns. If we go college pitching I’d much favor Burns to any of Cavalli/Wilcox and likely Crochet.

I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs with Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s the best CF defender in the class. He’s suffering from some draft fatigue and Kantrovitz has drafted a lot from CA (granted what scouting director hasn’t?).
0 x

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 13, 2020 2:48 pm

^^ Thanks for that, was wondering who Law mocked to the Cubs...Burns has more command and control than the non-Hancock group of speculative first round college arms to go with first round stuff so I like him. He hasn't been a major part of this thread because I still carry mostly dumb biases against 6' RHSPs but he's better than Cavalli
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 13, 2020 2:55 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:Law’s mock on The Athletic dropped today.

16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

The Cubs also have a new scouting director this year in Dan Kantrovitz, although I don’t think there’s a big change in direction coming just yet given how heavy this draft is on college pitching.


That’s the second national writer to recently connect the Cubs to Tanner Burns. If we go college pitching I’d much favor Burns to any of Cavalli/Wilcox and likely Crochet.

I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs with Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s the best CF defender in the class. He’s suffering from some draft fatigue and Kantrovitz has drafted a lot from CA (granted what scouting director hasn’t?).


Kiley McDaniel was the other to mock Burns to the Cubs but neither has really “connected” the Cubs as much as just guessed college arm, which seems logical based on Kantrovitz’ history and the number of college pitchers in this draft. Both McDaniel and Law was careful to say they don’t have much info linking players to teams (they start getting that info about a month before the draft because you can see which teams are bringing decision makers to games, etc). I wouldn’t assume too much outside of Burns being there at 16 yet.

I too would like the Cubs to go with a prep guy if all these teams are going college. Preferably a “famous” prep guy they have more info on (Hassell, PCA, Soderstrom & Abel have all been there at 16 in at least one mock and I’d like any of them; Ed Howard is another option if you’re confident in him). Basically, I see value in taking 4th prep guy at 16, rather than the 12th college guy. The prep class isn't that weak - especially prep OFs - teams are just inclined to trust the college player more.
2 x
Image

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 13, 2020 3:28 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-draft-pro ... nds-to-200

Expanded to 200

- Write-up makes me want to draft and sign Grice more

- Grice at 6'6" 240 and Ashford at 6'4" 220 jeebus

- Gino Groover is another frame HS player as a 6'3 MIF

- Tyson Guerrero sounds like another draftable college lefty

- Carson Taylor's another big switch hitting college catcher

- Dylan McLean seems like another interesting HS LH

- Jake Vogel seems like an interesting compact R/R HS OF
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Wed May 13, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 13, 2020 3:57 pm

BA has its mock out today too. The Cubs get a falling Hassell:

16
Robert Hassell
Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.
OF

Notes: The Cubs should have a number of college arms to pick from at this spot if they want to go that direction again after taking Fresno State righthander Ryan Jensen last year. However, it’s rare that the best pure hitter in the prep class gets to this pick, so Chicago could have a steal here with Hassell.
3 x
Image

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 13, 2020 6:40 pm

So I put together a consensus top 30 based on the combined draft rankings of BA, ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen) and MLB Pipeline (Callis/Mayo):

    1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona St
    2. Austin Martin, 2B/CF, Vanderbilt
    3. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
    4. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
    5. Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico St
    6. Zac Veen, OF, HS (Port Orange, FL)
    7. Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
    8. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
    9. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
    10. Jared Kelley, RHP, HS (Refugio, TX)
    11. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
    12. Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Imperial, PA)
    13. Mick Abel, RHP, HS (Portland, OR)
    14. Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina St
    15. Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS (Doylestown, PA)
    16. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
    17. Ed Howard, SS, HS (Chicago, IL)
    18. Tyler Soderstrom, C, HS (Turlock, CA)
    19. Robert Hassell, OF, HS (Thompson's Station, TN)
    20. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
    21. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, HS (Los Angeles, CA)
    22. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
    23. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
    24. Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
    25. Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
    26. Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
    27. Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio St
    28. Austin Wells, C, Arizona
    29. JT Ginn, RHP, Mississippi St
    30. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
4 x
Image

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 14, 2020 3:09 am

Callis’ first mock:

16. Cubs: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS
The Cubs need pitching but have had much more success drafting and developing hitting, especially in the first round. The track record of high school catchers in the first round is lousy -- the last two to stay behind the plate and accrue even 5 WAR are Joe Mauer (No. 1 overall in 2001) and Jason Kendall (No. 23 in 1992) -- but Soderstrom has a quality bat and the athleticism to profile at third base or on an outfield corner.


I like it.

Guys like Abel, PCA, Howard, Burns and Miller were still available at 16.
1 x
Image

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri May 15, 2020 3:25 am



I was backgrounding this earlier, might listen again for details...IIRC he was really high on Pete Crow-Armstrong...Interview starts about ten minutes in
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27701
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8942
x 5993

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri May 15, 2020 3:41 am

I know others here have more knowledge on the topic and spend more time. But some names on this list that interest me that would be available to us to some degree whether it’s after the first/as FA/as under slot first guys are Daniel Cabrera, Justin Foscue, Nick Loftin, Casey Martin, Aaron Sabato, and Gage Workman (who isn’t listed here but have seen the name in top ~75 lists).

0 x
Screw Pitchers

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri May 15, 2020 4:58 am

^^ Appreciate that link, RJ Anderson's offered quality prospect content over there lately. Cabrera should be an easy first rounder and wouldn't be surprised if as many as three others in that group join him with Loftin most likely. I like Foscue or Workman in the third or later for the Cubs. Workman is one of the toolsiest and youngest college players in the draft, Foscue is similar to Strumpf maybe traded some projection for louder performance. No one's really a threat to go undrafted, maybe Workman who would only be 21 next year if he doesn't go high. Sabato gets interesting as early as the second for me because of the power, not sure he'd get out of the second
1 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27701
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8942
x 5993

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri May 15, 2020 5:12 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Appreciate that link, RJ Anderson's offered quality prospect content over there lately. Cabrera should be an easy first rounder and wouldn't be surprised if as many as three others in that group join him with Loftin most likely. I like Foscue or Workman in the third or later for the Cubs. Workman is one of the toolsiest and youngest college players in the draft, Foscue is similar to Strumpf maybe traded some projection for louder performance. No one's really a threat to go undrafted, maybe Workman who would only be 21 next year if he doesn't go high. Sabato gets interesting as early as the second for me because of the power, not sure he'd get out of the second

Yeah that popped up on my Tl the other day and seemed informative. With the draft being such an unknown maybe some of those guys slip but yeah seems like your assessment of where they’ll go is as good a guess as any. Still pissed Veen skyrocketed as he seemed possible to get at 16 in December/January, Lol. Workman I am irrationally attracted to for some reason the more I read, especially as someone outside the first.
0 x
Screw Pitchers

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri May 15, 2020 6:03 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah that popped up on my Tl the other day and seemed informative. With the draft being such an unknown maybe some of those guys slip but yeah seems like your assessment of where they’ll go is as good a guess as any. Still pissed Veen skyrocketed as he seemed possible to get around December/January at 16. Lol. Workman I am irrationally attracted to for some reason the more I read, especially as someone outside the first.


In the case of Foscue/Workman, I actually think other teams are interested at least a round earlier than I feel for the Cubs. Thinking is that Workman's a smidge raw for the first two rounds as a college bat, two CCBL appearances one good by 19 is good though, and Foscue is a little redundant in the system with redundancy being something the UDFA portion can cover

Secretly I think Crow-Armstrong > Veen, if they had the same frame but kept the tools and skills it wouldn't be a contest. Getting the Spring to see how Veen's added bulk impacts his speed and defense would have been nice, without it I just assume the worst :dontknow:

Anderson also did a top 25 pitcher list: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb- ... t-the-top/

Chris McMahon, Miami intern, kinda sneaks up as a quality seeming college arm with less fanfare than teammate Cecconi, nice to see one of Carraway or Abbott sneak in since I think either should be pounced on in the second
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

User avatar
weis21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9293
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2006 6:45 am
Location: ECU
x 7164
x 1385

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby weis21 » Fri May 15, 2020 7:09 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Looks like a 5 round draft this year, boooooooooooooooooooooooooo

---

Since probably Tristan Casas' draft year I have been wondering if the Cubs will draft a 1B of The Future. Not that I'm in any hurry to move on from Rizzo, 4 more years I say, but also if it happened that someone loud came up...Mostly I'd prefer they not go from Rizzo to JAGs, this is a prestigous gig dammit and has gotta stay classy. Last year there was Toglia in the first and then a couple non-first developmental HS guys in Mahki Backstrom (Braves) and then Garrett Frachette (Giants). This year among the HS bats I'm liking this guy:


please let him come to ECU instead. We need help saving our university (just kidding...I hope).
0 x

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 15, 2020 11:14 pm



0 x
Image

User avatar
CubsWin
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 7322
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 9:25 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA
x 224
x 526

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CubsWin » Sat May 16, 2020 3:19 am

I haven't minded the previous Cubs draft philosophy of taking college hitters (for the most part) in the 1st round because it worked out so well. It's fair to say they haven't missed on any college bat they've taken with their first round pick. But I've always been a fan of upside especially when you're drafting in the latter third of the 1st round where high floors often come with a lower ceiling. When you have a successful team (and you're picking in the 20s), your system will eventually start lacking high ceilings (unless you get really lucky or spend big on one guy in IFA every year).

So for the last 3 seasons, I've caught myself drooling over some high upside prep prospect or unproven rocket arm only to be disappointed with a lower-ranked, less expensive pick like Little/Lange instead of Nate Pearson or Griffin Canning, or Hoerner instead of Shane McClanahan or Ethan Hankins (though my thirst for upside was quenched with Davis and Roederer in the next round).

I'm not writing this to say I knew better. All I have to go on is a publication's rankings. Nico Hoerner has defied the odds to date. I'm writing this because I find myself coming back to this same thirst again.

Reading that names like Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko and possibly even Robert Hassell and Austin Hendrick could still be there at 16 has me once again dreaming on upside.

Is this foolish, especially in a truncated scouting year? Conventional (and sound) wisdom says in this environment a team should go with a guy with an extensive scouting history. You don't want to miss with your 1st round pick, after all. But then my gambler's brain kicks in and says, when there's a potential, high upside stud available (the likes of which the Cubs haven't had a chance at in 5 years), perhaps you take advantage and zig when the other teams are zagging.

Am I putting too much emphasis on previously high rankings of players like Abel and Bitsko? Even though the Cubs system lacks in upside, is the smart play to take someone with a higher floor and not gamble on the unknowns of a prep player who falls? Almora was ranked in the top 10 and taken 6th overall. That didn't turn out so well. The Cubs haven't taken a prep player in the 1st round since.

Help! I need your input...

Your thoughts?
0 x
”I do sincerely hope the Cubs win a World Series. After I die.” - Jerry Reinsdorf, January, 2015. Sorry you had to witness that, Jer...

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9017
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 843
x 884

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun May 17, 2020 7:01 am

Reading that names like Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko and possibly even Robert Hassell and Austin Hendrick could still be there at 16 has me once again dreaming on upside. Is this foolish, especially in a truncated scouting year?


I think many teams knew this draft class really really well coming into the year. There is just so much more reliable info with all these HS showcases (an industry all it's own!) and NCAA play in the last decade or so really catching up to the minors. Bitsko maybe caught people off guard by reclassifying pretty late from a colder state, but also has been on the PG circuit
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 91514
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 693
x 3306

Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun May 17, 2020 3:34 pm

CubsWin wrote:I haven't minded the previous Cubs draft philosophy of taking college hitters (for the most part) in the 1st round because it worked out so well. It's fair to say they haven't missed on any college bat they've taken with their first round pick. But I've always been a fan of upside especially when you're drafting in the latter third of the 1st round where high floors often come with a lower ceiling. When you have a successful team (and you're picking in the 20s), your system will eventually start lacking high ceilings (unless you get really lucky or spend big on one guy in IFA every year).

So for the last 3 seasons, I've caught myself drooling over some high upside prep prospect or unproven rocket arm only to be disappointed with a lower-ranked, less expensive pick like Little/Lange instead of Nate Pearson or Griffin Canning, or Hoerner instead of Shane McClanahan or Ethan Hankins (though my thirst for upside was quenched with Davis and Roederer in the next round).

I'm not writing this to say I knew better. All I have to go on is a publication's rankings. Nico Hoerner has defied the odds to date. I'm writing this because I find myself coming back to this same thirst again.

Reading that names like Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko and possibly even Robert Hassell and Austin Hendrick could still be there at 16 has me once again dreaming on upside.

Is this foolish, especially in a truncated scouting year? Conventional (and sound) wisdom says in this environment a team should go with a guy with an extensive scouting history. You don't want to miss with your 1st round pick, after all. But then my gambler's brain kicks in and says, when there's a potential, high upside stud available (the likes of which the Cubs haven't had a chance at in 5 years), perhaps you take advantage and zig when the other teams are zagging.

Am I putting too much emphasis on previously high rankings of players like Abel and Bitsko? Even though the Cubs system lacks in upside, is the smart play to take someone with a higher floor and not gamble on the unknowns of a prep player who falls? Almora was ranked in the top 10 and taken 6th overall. That didn't turn out so well. The Cubs haven't taken a prep player in the 1st round since.

Help! I need your input...

Your thoughts?


I think there's value in the prep pool at 16 since more prep players are expected to fall as teams prefer the safety of college players who they have 3+ years of info on. If you can get a guy who normally would go 8-14, it's worth the risk I think. Obviously you have to be relatively confident in the looks you got last year/early this season and any videos submitted but I feel like any of Hendrick, Hassell, Crow-Armstrong (who had a rough summer showcase but rebounded during the few weeks of this season), Soderstrom, Abel and maybe Howard are better value than the remaining college SPs or bats. And I really dislike the risk of prep pitchers in the first round but think Abel would be good value.

I think Tom is right about no one willing to risk taking Bitsko in the first since he re-classified (it sounds like he'll go to one of the teams with multiple picks who can take on a bit more risk like Arizona).
0 x
Image


Return to “Amateur Baseball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest