2020 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Cubswin11
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri May 29, 2020 7:00 pm

From Kiley today, fwiw

Where their farm system ranks: 24th

Biggest system strengths: Up-the-middle bats

Biggest system needs: Starting pitchers

Six of the Cubs' top 10 prospects (and all of the top three) fit best at one of the up-the-middle defensive positions, and all have a real chance to be everyday players; the two lowest-rated prospects of the six are just 16 years old. Of the pitchers rated above 40 Future Value, only two (Cory Abbott and Kohl Franklin) are likely to stay as starters if/when they reach the big leagues, so there could continue to be a young starting pitcher inventory problem in Chicago.

How they typically draft: College pitchers

The Cubs are under the guidance of Dan Kantrovitz (formerly of the A's and Cardinals) for this year's draft. He has skewed toward college players in the drafts he has run in the past and the Cubs took college pitchers at a higher-than-average rate under the previous amateur scouting regime, but rumors have the Cubs targeting upside with their first couple of picks this year.

Best fits: Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko, Jordan Walker

2020 draft picks: No. 16, No. 51, No. 88, No. 117, No. 147

Past five first-round picks: RHP Ryan Jensen (2019); SS Nico Hoerner (2018); LHP Brendon Little (2017); RHP Alex Lange (2017); 2B/OF Ian Happ (2015)
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TomtheBombadil
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:02 pm



MLB.com mentioned there's a crowd that sees him in the majors by 20-21. I am in that section of the bandwagon, see him as a potential Jose Fernandez the reptiles will let live

Great little race this year for top prep arm, Abel had me pretty convinced. I reeeeally wish Fulton stayed healthy since with my new perspective, he and Abel would be neck and neck
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:30 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Great little race this year for top prep arm, Abel had me pretty convinced. I reeeeally wish Fulton stayed healthy since with my new perspective, he and Abel would be neck and neck


I’m a little skittish with Kelley since there haven’t been glowing reports about his ability to spin a breaking ball. That plus the risky demographic is a bit scary. I’d prefer Abel (like you mentioned) and I think Fulton will likely make Baltimore very happy. But I can’t say there isn’t a fun thought about the Cubs taking Kelley and teaching him one of those knuckle curves.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:53 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:I’m a little skittish with Kelley since there haven’t been glowing reports about his ability to spin a breaking ball. That plus the risky demographic is a bit scary. I’d prefer Abel (like you mentioned) and I think Fulton will likely make Baltimore very happy. But I can’t say there isn’t a fun thought about the Cubs taking Kelley and teaching him one of those knuckle curves.


Oh, sorry to clear that up: I think a healthy Fulton is hanging with Abel at 2 with Kelley up top

I felt the same way about Kelley and kinda just sat on it for a while. Over time have come to strongly suspect Kelley's breaking ball concerns are overblown, seems like Longenhagen is the only national guy who thinks there's nothing really to work with there while guys like Law and Callazo are more optimistic sounding. Outside of the breaking ball, I think Kelley has the better fastball, fastball command, control, primary offspeed, overall command and control, and body over Abel. There's some talk about Abel's strike throwing too that I think is fair to question and it just seems like Kelley's outperformed him going back to last Spring
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:36 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:I’m a little skittish with Kelley since there haven’t been glowing reports about his ability to spin a breaking ball. That plus the risky demographic is a bit scary. I’d prefer Abel (like you mentioned) and I think Fulton will likely make Baltimore very happy. But I can’t say there isn’t a fun thought about the Cubs taking Kelley and teaching him one of those knuckle curves.


Oh, sorry to clear that up: I think a healthy Fulton is hanging with Abel at 2 with Kelley up top

I felt the same way about Kelley and kinda just sat on it for a while. Over time have come to strongly suspect Kelley's breaking ball concerns are overblown, seems like Longenhagen is the only national guy who thinks there's nothing really to work with there while guys like Law and Callazo are more optimistic sounding. Outside of the breaking ball, I think Kelley has the better fastball, fastball command, control, primary offspeed, overall command and control, and body over Abel. There's some talk about Abel's strike throwing too that I think is fair to question and it just seems like Kelley's outperformed him going back to last Spring


You like Kelley's body over Abel's? The video I watched of Kelley makes him look a little portly already. Abel looks like a young Strasburg. Long, thin, and loose limbs with plenty of room to add good weight. Or did you mean body of work?
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:56 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:You like Kelley's body over Abel's? The video I watched of Kelley makes him look a little portly already. Abel looks like a young Strasburg. Long, thin, and loose limbs with plenty of room to add good weight. Or did you mean body of work?


100%, Abel's going to need a good 20 pounds to catch up. Thin's not an ideal SP build, something Abel build comps like Strasburg or AJ Burnett at that age had to move past...The body is a factor in the optimism for Kelley to reach the majors by 20-21, doesn't need much

I think I said it very early in this thread but Kelley looks alot like I hope Richard Gallardo will, though I think the first time was to pass on Kelley an option

Body of work too...Kelley was better thah Abel last year from the sounds of it, utterly dominated the little season he had this year, and is more decorated and accomplished (D1 QB recruit), Gatorade thing)...There's just more meat
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:48 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:You like Kelley's body over Abel's? The video I watched of Kelley makes him look a little portly already. Abel looks like a young Strasburg. Long, thin, and loose limbs with plenty of room to add good weight. Or did you mean body of work?


100%, Abel's going to need a good 20 pounds to catch up. Thin's not an ideal SP build, something Abel build comps like Strasburg or AJ Burnett at that age had to move past...The body is a factor in the optimism for Kelley to reach the majors by 20-21, doesn't need much

I think I said it very early in this thread but Kelley looks alot like I hope Richard Gallardo will, though I think the first time was to pass on Kelley an option

Body of work too...Kelley was better thah Abel last year from the sounds of it, utterly dominated the little season he had this year, and is more decorated and accomplished (D1 QB recruit), Gatorade thing)...There's just more meat


For a finished product, I completely agree. For an 18 year old that is very likely still maturing? Give me the one with the frame that isn't already maxed out, and likely only going to get worse as it ages. However, I went and watched some more video of Kelley and he's not nearly as chubby as the UA video made him appear.

Completely agree on Kelley having the better body of work.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:03 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:For a finished product, I completely agree.


I don't think a whole lot is changing between now and the majors for Kelley. They'll ask him to mix in a two seam or knuckle curve or curve or slider or cutter or something more but beyond that starter's command of the fastball and changeup duo on a near ML ready frame will carry him. I might even go as far as saying no one in the draft is closer to the player they'll be in the MLs except Torkelson
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:23 pm



It's somewhat lucky that Paddack and Castillo are the new single best comps, because both are very successful young big league starters, but that also makes Bitsko's current ability sound a bit better than it is. Both Paddack and Castillo use a changeup as their primary off-speed pitch. Castillo's slider (17% usage, run value is basically league average) and Paddack's curveball (10% usage, also roughly average run value) are tertiary pitches for top pitchers.

Looking at it another way, Bitsko's raw stuff -- the velocity and movement of his four-seam fastball, slider, curveball -- has all the quality of current big league starting pitchers and could plausibly be the arsenal for a current big league starter. And he's still 17 with a limited track record of pitching.


This is a fun read. It also makes me wonder if all of the new technology from the last few years might re-value HS arms a bit more.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:57 pm

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:21 am



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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:38 pm

New BA mock gives the Cubs Hendrick (Abel was available):

This could be a coup for the Cubs at No. 16, as Hendrick is the best available player remaining in the class and brings some of the biggest raw power. We’re solidly in the range of educated guessing at this point in the mock draft, with little hard information on who teams prefer and more rumors to contend with.


The twists were the Orioles passing on Martin/Lacy for a deal with Veen and Bitsko going at 8.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:58 pm

Keith Law's latest mock

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

The Cubs seem unlikely to take a high school pitcher, and other executives have speculated that they’d go college given the new scouting director and the need to get some players into the system faster.


Interesting on the HS front, given that a number of other places have had them going that route. I wonder if the Cubs' intentions are just a big old shrug emoji for everyone right now given the FO changes.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:38 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/carlosacollazo/status/1267986557086162949?s=21



That's probably a good move by him. He wasn't going to be a 1st rounder and with the lowered bonus pools, he wasn't going to get 1st round money as a later pick. Spend a few years at LSU and reap the rewards.
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:New BA mock gives the Cubs Hendrick (Abel was available):

This could be a coup for the Cubs at No. 16, as Hendrick is the best available player remaining in the class and brings some of the biggest raw power. We’re solidly in the range of educated guessing at this point in the mock draft, with little hard information on who teams prefer and more rumors to contend with.


The twists were the Orioles passing on Martin/Lacy for a deal with Veen and Bitsko going at 8.


I just don't know if Hendrick is going to hit enough. But that is one fun player if he can.

Bertz wrote:Keith Law's latest mock

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

The Cubs seem unlikely to take a high school pitcher, and other executives have speculated that they’d go college given the new scouting director and the need to get some players into the system faster.


Interesting on the HS front, given that a number of other places have had them going that route. I wonder if the Cubs' intentions are just a big old shrug emoji for everyone right now given the FO changes.


So we have multiple people saying the Cubs are going to go for upside this draft, and then KLaw says multiple others are speculating the Cubs want some quick mover types. Yeah, nobody has a clue at this point.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:53 am

Jonathan Mayo had a mock tonight:

16. Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
It’s still hard to place Mitchell, but he has the best overall set of tools in this class. Chicago could also dive into the prep bat pool here.


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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:24 pm

Interesting, more progressive draft board:
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:50 pm

Some hot takes:

- ^^ Good on that board for calling Tork the best bat since Bryant. The only reason MLB doesn't push that line, opting for Mark T from nearly 20 years ago, is because Bryant is an upcoming apex FA and those guys aren't getting much good press for a while. Interesting take on Swiney, love Shuster in that top 32 tho and prefer him obvy...NC State's sneaky productive but I see more Travis Wood than a possible first division starter

- If you don't know where to place a top college bat with "the best overall tools in the class" then are you a believer? I think Mitchell's a second rounder who will go in the first to a team avoiding HS players and a little more flexible evaluating college bats in the first

- McDaniel highlighting Bitsko being 17 IMO says more about how brilliantly Bitsko played this draft than anything else. Draft media will care more that he's 17 on draft day than draft models, younger pitchers aren't more safe, and really this is his age 18 season. Being impressed by a pitcher being 17 is better reserved for like a Richard Gallardo pitching himself out of Rk and probably short season ball than it is a draft arm. This HS class is sharp btw, lots of guys who really handled their business

- Good on Crews, has first round talent and will get a fairer shake outside this draft. A couple guys who checked out earlier did really well: Rob Moore was named a Freshman All American after mashing for Arkansas and Nate Savino made 3 starts as a freshman for Virginia. Another Carter Stewart or 3 minus the selection drama would be nice

- One likely non-first bat I've become locked in on more and more is Zavier Warren. College SS, used to play catcher, switch hits, wide tools and skills set, hit in the CCBL, good size with some physicality, and his sophomore year at CMU compares really really well to Zobrist's senior year at Dallas Baptist...Seems like one of the best prospects in this draft

- Another player I gloss over but is right there in appeal with Burl Carraway and Andrew Abbott is Georgia LHP Ryan Webb. He's a three pitch power LH reliever with maybe four and a shot to start, was dirty this Spring with multiple multi-inning outings including 5 IP/11 Ks in relief of Emerson Hancock...I could see Carraway ending up the third best of the group despite being the highest ranked

- Kelley becoming my top arm has also bumped up Tanner Burns for me. Both guys can beat up hitters with command and control of their four seam, can throw multiple secondaries for strikes, consistently perform, have only really the standard injury risk
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:35 pm

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:07 am

Hrubes20 wrote:https://prospects365.com/2020/06/07/ian-smiths-2020-mlb-mock-draft-2-0/

New 5 rounder from Prospects 365.


Kelley - horsefeathers yes, weird comment on lack of track record tho not sure how long they need

CJ M - Sure

Werner Blakely - I would love a high ceiling prep even after Kelley so yes to the giant All American LHH SS

Alex Toral - Another yes please

De'Andre Smith - Fine, sure, but seems random? 3 preps? Interesting
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:07 am

BA’s 283rd ranked prospect is pulling out of the draft.

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:03 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-2/

Mitchell is the mock pick again. I would feel abandoned by Theo

I really like Austin Hendrick to the Reds. I'm on the Hendrick wagon as a possible CF, probably matters less than his bat to the Reds

Patrick Bailey continues to get mocked to the White Sox, who just signed a badass catcher. It confuses me, super popular mock pick, probably definitely has something to do with some league $/WAR agenda
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:30 pm



Nothing groundbreaking, but good overview of how the FO is adjusting to the current state of things wrt the draft.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:48 pm

^^ Maybe wishful thinking but it sounds like they were pitching to some tough signs...Robby Ashford? Jordan Walker?
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:37 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Patrick Bailey continues to get mocked to the White Sox, who just signed a badass catcher. It confuses me, super popular mock pick, probably definitely has something to do with some league $/WAR agenda


I think it's because they have taken a college hitter in the 1st round the past 4 years, and Bailey is the best college hitter available at that spot in most mocks. I honestly think Mitchell is a guy that could get popped by the White Sox. He and Robert defensively in the OF would really prolong the feasibility of continuing to trot Eloy out there every day.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:40 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:I think it's because they have taken a college hitter in the 1st round the past 4 years, and Bailey is the best college hitter available at that spot in most mocks. I honestly think Mitchell is a guy that could get popped by the White Sox. He and Robert defensively in the OF would really prolong the feasibility of continuing to trot Eloy out there every day.


I poop you not, been thinking they are Mitchell's ceiling too
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