2020 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:34 pm

New BA mock today:

16 Garrett Crochet Tennessee LHP

Notes: Crochet has a few different suitors throughout the teens. There’s a lot of risk, but Chicago sounds like one of the teams who might be too infatuated with his significant upside. They might not let him get passed 16.


Surprises include Abel at 11 to the White Sox and Sabato at 14 to the Rangers.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:12 am

Just revisiting a few topics, especially with some position player information from Kantrovitz’s time with the Cardinals and A’s.

A quick disclaimer, there’s countless data points to consider and a good amount is proprietary information. This isn’t any sort of method to “reverse-engineer” draft boards, but I thought a few points were interesting. Many of these notes are more comments on how the Cardinals and A’s organizational philosophies differed.

Cardinals
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By and large, StL focused on college (with a lot of it being college pitching) in the first round and then went overslot on HS in the second rounds. This was a three year sample (2012-2014). It’s not an uncommon strategy. Four of six of HSs taken were in the second round. The second round picks had some significant risks. Carson Kelly was a RHP/3B (although BA noted teams were considering him at C, which StL clearly did). Steve Bean was a HS C with plus defensive ability and concerns about his hitting. Oscar Mercado was a plus defensive SS with a decent hit tool, but no power yet.

Cardinals tldr: Cardinals 2012-2014 drafts focused on a lot of college (especially pitching), but when they went with overslot HS, they tended to be in the second round and carried some risk.
A’s
Spoiler: show
His time with the A’s was a fairly even mix of “high floor” and “high ceiling”
Richie Martin (2015-floor), AJ Puk (2016-higher floor at least as a reliever), Austin Beck (2017- ceiling), Kyler Murray (2018-ceiling), Logan Davidson (2019-floor). The A’s really didn’t put much stock into wood bat performance. When I looked at position players drafted since 2015 in the top five rounds, I could find wood bat scouting reports or stats from those respective leagues on 15 of them. 11/15 had poor wood bat performance (OPS <.700). I don’t think the A’s targeted these players specifically, but likely their draft rankings calculation just didn’t weigh the performance of wood bat leagues as highly as some other organizations. Of note, one of the four that did perform well was Alfonso Rivas, now of the Cubs, and only one 1st round pick (Richie Martin in 2015) performed well with wood bats. The other first round picks (Kevin Merrell, Kyler Murray, Logan Davidson, and Austin Beck [HS, but had a specific scouting report of not having success with wood bats]) all had poor to “atrocious” performance with wood bats. I wouldn’t imagine that the Cubs organizational philosophy of targeting strong Cape Cod performers is going to change because DK came from the A’s.

A’s tldr: The A’s drafted a lot of guys who performed really poorly in wood bat leagues. One of the 4/15 hitters who hit well with wood bats is now in the Cubs system.
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TomtheBombadil
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:12 pm

still needs touching up
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:56 pm

I've put a lot less research into this draft than I typically do when we're picking this high, but I think Garret Mitchell is my guy. Mitchell seems pretty likely to net out as a Brett Gardner type, but it sounds like there's enough raw power in there for something a little more Granderson-ian. And for anything you can say about our FO, they tend to get the most out of college bats. If they take Mitchell I'll be less worried about any mechanical messiness than I rightfully should be.

Otherwise I think I want a HS arm, Bitsko slightly over Abel. I'm really wondering if all the new technology for measuring pitches makes it more viable to nab a HS arm this high. Get a guy with high end velo and spin, refine his efficiency in the lab, and basically once you've built up his innings he's ready to go. And since the technology makes grips and pitch types less of a trial and error deal, if they have clean mechanics whether they'll develop decent command should be less of a wildcard than it has been traditionally.

If by some fortune Hancock or Meyer are available for us they would be my picks, but over the last few weeks that possibility has seemingly gone from unlikely to impossible.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:16 pm

There are plenty of guys I would be completely fine with in the 1st. But one guy that I wouldn't be fine with, is Cade Cavalli. He's quite easily my least favorite of the picks that has been mocked to us. He just can't throw strikes.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby rawaction » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:40 pm

I don't follow the MLB draft, so today I just heard of Austin Hendrick and learned that he went to the neighboring school district. Pretty cool that a dude like 12 minutes away from me could go top 15.
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:25 am

I know things might be different with Dan Kantrovitz but since the Cubs under Theo have loved prospects who've had success on the Cape, here are BA's top draft-eligible prospects from last year's CCL:

1. Nick Gonzalez, 2B, New Mexico St
2. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
3. Austin Wells, C/OF, Arizona
4. Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi St
5. Daniel Cabrera, OF, LSU
6. Gage Workman, 3B, Arizona St
8. Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International
9. Ian Seymour, LHP, Virginia Tech
10. Noah Campbell, 2B/OF, South Carolina
11. Jake Eder, LHP, Vanderbilt
12. RJ Dabovich, RHP, Arizona St
14. Zach DeLoach, OF, Texas A&M - had a monster CCL
15. Hayden Cantrelle, 2B/SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
16. Joe Boyle, RHP, Notre Dame
18. Jesse Franklin, OF, MIchigan
19. Joey Wiemer, OF, Cincinnati
20. Ian Bedell, RHP, Missouri
21. Casey Schmitt, 3B/RHP, San Diego St
22. Jake Leftwich, RHP, Florida
23. Parker Chavers, OF, Coastal Carolina
24. Brady Smith, C, Florida
25. Zach Brzykcy, RHP, Virginia Tech
27. Tyler Mattison, RHP, Bryant
28. Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio St
32. Jacob Palisch, LHP, Stanford
33. Jimmy Glowenke, SS, Dallas Baptist
34. Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
38. Ben Ramirez, SS, USC
39. Taylor Dollard, RHP, Cal Poly
40. Trei Cruz, SS, Rice
41. Kaden Polcovich, OF/2B, Oklahoma St
44. Allbry Major, OF, Xavier
46. Darren Baker, 2B, Cal - Dusty's son
47. Jamal O'Guinn, OF/1B, USC
48. Zach McCambley, RHP, Coastal Carolina
49. Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball St
50. Trey Dillard, RHP, Missouri
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:31 am

^^ Warren off a top 50 2019 CCBL is a deep slight!

---

https://texas.rivals.com/news/mlb-draft ... y-mcdaniel

McDaniel does a full hour podcast...starts talking draft about 10 mins in...Goes on for a while about the greatness of trackman and rapsodo when mentioning Bitsko...not expecting alot of HS draftees...Goes on a great rant on stadium funding and even says people would go to prison in some scenarios....Witt somewhere 25-40 but some whispers as high as teens
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:57 am

Callis and Mayo draft-day mock:

16. Cubs
Callis: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA -- In a perfect world for the Cubs, they'd get a shot at an upper-tier college pitcher or Hassell, Hendrick or Soderstrom, which doesn't happen here. Mitchell could be a steal, though clubs are mixed on how they weigh his five-tool upside against his Type 1 diabetes. Pitching possibilities include Crochet, Cavalli and the high school arms.

Mayo: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (Imperial, Pa.) -- Should the Phillies take Hendrick, Mitchell would be a good fit as it’s mostly been bats being mentioned here.


https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-fin ... e-coverage
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:27 pm



He lists Mitchell, Ed Howard, Austin Hendrick, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nick Bitsko, and Mick Abel as the names to watch. I'm a little weary of Hendrick's age but could get behind any of these
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:40 pm

Keith Law's last mock:

16. Chicago Cubs: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

I was told Detmers wouldn’t get past the Cubs, and if he’s gone, they might go with Foscue. They’re also one of the teams most linked to Abel. It’s worth noting that the Cubs haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2005 (Mark Pawelek), and haven’t taken any high school player in the first round since 2012 (Albert Almora), but they’ve changed scouting directors this year and appear to have a new approach to the draft.


I uhhhh hope he's wrong
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:54 pm

Bertz wrote:Keith Law's last mock:

16. Chicago Cubs: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

I was told Detmers wouldn’t get past the Cubs, and if he’s gone, they might go with Foscue. They’re also one of the teams most linked to Abel. It’s worth noting that the Cubs haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2005 (Mark Pawelek), and haven’t taken any high school player in the first round since 2012 (Albert Almora), but they’ve changed scouting directors this year and appear to have a new approach to the draft.


I uhhhh hope he's wrong


Two weeks ago, he said in a chat there was no chance the Cubs take a prep arm. :roll:
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:07 pm

BA: https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... ock-draft/

16
Austin Hendrick
West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.
OF

Notes:
This could be close to the floor for Austin Hendrick, who gets mentioned throughout the teens and has plenty of ties at the Reds at 12. If he doesn’t make it, we could see the Cubs being interested in Crochet’s upside. We’ve also heard they might be digging on Wells, and if they could get him for an underslot deal here, that would make a lot of sense considering their history and success with lefthanded bats. We think they could be interested in Mitchell if none of these other names are on the board. Watch out for East Carolina first baseman Alec Burleson with the Cubs in a later-round selection.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:11 pm

Kiley McDaniel went 2 rounds in his mock:

16. Chicago Cubs

Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor: The Cubs are also leaning college but are more open-minded, though they see some Nico Hoerner in Loftin. Crochet would be the pick if he makes it this far, Bailey could be in the mix here and the Cubs like Jordan Walker, but he probably goes between their picks.

51. Chicago Cubs: Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:23 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Bertz wrote:Keith Law's last mock:

16. Chicago Cubs: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

I was told Detmers wouldn’t get past the Cubs, and if he’s gone, they might go with Foscue. They’re also one of the teams most linked to Abel. It’s worth noting that the Cubs haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since 2005 (Mark Pawelek), and haven’t taken any high school player in the first round since 2012 (Albert Almora), but they’ve changed scouting directors this year and appear to have a new approach to the draft.


I uhhhh hope he's wrong


Two weeks ago, he said in a chat there was no chance the Cubs take a prep arm. :roll:


Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that people don't have a peg on the Cubs. The local guys said Mitchell and 5 High Schoolers. The national guys are primarily saying college with a few high schoolers mixed in. And there appear to be different opinions on how willing they are to do an arm.

I do hope if we go for a less fun college guy like a Foscue or a Loftin, that it's to let us get a HS player who falls. I'd prefer where we pick to just play the draft straight, but I could understand thinking something like Foscue at 70% of slot is better than the other options.
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:28 pm

Bertz wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Bertz wrote:Keith Law's last mock:



I uhhhh hope he's wrong


Two weeks ago, he said in a chat there was no chance the Cubs take a prep arm. :roll:


Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that people don't have a peg on the Cubs. The local guys said Mitchell and 5 High Schoolers. The national guys are primarily saying college with a few high schoolers mixed in. And there appear to be different opinions on how willing they are to do an arm.

I do hope if we go for a less fun college guy like a Foscue or a Loftin, that it's to let us get a HS player who falls. I'd prefer where we pick to just play the draft straight, but I could understand thinking something like Foscue at 70% of slot is better than the other options.


If they don’t play it straight in the first round, I want Austin Wells.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:56 pm

I locked this thread so we can focus all discussion to the draft day thread.
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