2020 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Mon May 25, 2020 10:59 pm

The Cubs were mocked Garrett Crochet in a recent Prospect 365 article
All things considered, this is a fantastic pick for the Cubs. College pitcher is the heavy assumption here, and—in my eyes—Crochet being available here is the difference in drafting the 11th-ranked prospect on my recently-released FYPD list and the 27th-ranked (or worse) prospect. The southpaw has massive potential, but his lack of 2020 sample (3.1 IP in a single start) is sure to make organizations reluctant. It hasn’t been publicized much, but the Cubs have done a good employing analytics and pitch data to develop their minor league pitchers; this will certainly help as Crochet looks to add a viable third pitch as a professional. The hypothetical duo of Crochet and Brailyn Marquez in the Windy City is a frightening thought for opposing hitters; the former could be a bullpen option of Chicago later this summer. Current FYPD Rank: 11th, Others to watch: Tanner Burns, Cole Wilcox

Some familiar names mentioned. I believe Crochet has been mocked to the Cubs a couple of times and Tanner Burns has been mentioned as well.

Just for the sake of discussion, it's interesting to look at AJ Puk as a recent comp to Crochet. They possess similar builds and arsenals. They also dealt with health issues during their draft year. Puk had much more experience in the weekend rotation for Florida, but was a common pick for 1-1 in 2016 projections.

MLB Pipeline's report on AJ Puk's pitches in 2016; 6'7" 230 lbs, LHP Florida
Scouting Grades: 70 FB, 55 SL, 50 CH, 45 Control, 55 Overall
Big and strong, Puk arguably has the best raw stuff of any arm in the class, with the chance to have three plus pitches. He's capable of touching 96-97 mph with his fastball regulary. Ironically, he might have been at his best in the one inning he threw before his back acted up, showing a 96-99 mph fastball and a plus slider at 88-90 mph. He can maintain his velocity deep into starts and while his changeup is his third pitch, it should be Major League average in the future.

Puk's biggest stumbling block has been his control and command, something that has kept him from dominating college competition consistently.


MLB Pipeline's report on Garrett Crochet's pitches in 2020; 6'6" 218 lbs, LHP Tennessee
Scouting Grades: 65 FB, 55 SL, 60 CH, 50 Control, 50 Overall
After working with a 91-95 mph fastball and topping out at 97 during the spring, Crochet dealt at 96-100 for most of the fall, and his heater already played better than its velocity because it has high spin rates. His 82-85 mph slider features above-average spin rates as well and his long arms create difficult angle on his breaking ball. He flashes a well above-average changeup at times, throwing it around 90 mph with deceptive arm speed.

For a 6-foot-6 pitcher, Crochet does a nice job of keeping his long levers in sync and providing strikes. Scouts like his delivery and arm action, though he still needs to refine his command to make the most of his overpowering stuff.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 26, 2020 4:36 am

My rage would know no bounds if this guy opened his tenure by selecting Crochet. 13 HRs allowed in just 63 and change during 2018, 21 in 132 NCAA innings, 137 hits allowed...Tbf pitchers are less straightforward than hitters and MLB.com's praise for the changeup was better than I thought, but still!

I'd literally with a British accent rather take Jared Shuster among the college LHSPs. Hell, Shuster might be behind only Hancock and Lacy among the NCAA SPs. The case for him is that he's been crushing it with huge gains since last summer, was up to 97 this spring with a better breaking ball, has one of the best changes in the draft, went to a summer wood bat league twice (CCBL once) and pitched really well...
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue May 26, 2020 4:17 pm

Kiley has another mock:

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

Mitchell is a consensus top-10 prospect by draft models, thanks to some very attractive components -- history of high contact rate, 70 speed, 55 raw power -- but he is much lower for many scouts due to some other qualities -- lack of improvement in college, lack of in-game power, choosing not to play in the fall his whole college career, generally playing below his tools since his high school underclass days. His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players -- Sam Fuld is the most prominent example -- so Mitchell is not in play for some clubs. That full list hasn't come into focus yet, but the assumption is that someone will take him in the middle of the first round. The Cubs have a new voice at the helm of their draft in Dan Kantrovitz (formerly with Oakland and St. Louis), and clubs have noticed them showing more interest in upside types than they did at their top pick in recent years.


Hassell went 8, Hendrick 12, Soderstrom 13, Crochet 14, Abel 17, PCA 18, Howard 37 and no Burns. Risers include Bitsko at 15 and Foscue at 19.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue May 26, 2020 5:44 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:My rage would know no bounds if this guy opened his tenure by selecting Crochet. 13 HRs allowed in just 63 and change during 2018, 21 in 132 NCAA innings, 137 hits allowed...Tbf pitchers are less straightforward than hitters and MLB.com's praise for the changeup was better than I thought, but still!

I'd literally with a British accent rather take Jared Shuster among the college LHSPs. Hell, Shuster might be behind only Hancock and Lacy among the NCAA SPs. The case for him is that he's been crushing it with huge gains since last summer, was up to 97 this spring with a better breaking ball, has one of the best changes in the draft, went to a summer wood bat league twice (CCBL once) and pitched really well...


I don't love the prior shoulder issue, either.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue May 26, 2020 5:50 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Kiley has another mock:

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

Mitchell is a consensus top-10 prospect by draft models, thanks to some very attractive components -- history of high contact rate, 70 speed, 55 raw power -- but he is much lower for many scouts due to some other qualities -- lack of improvement in college, lack of in-game power, choosing not to play in the fall his whole college career, generally playing below his tools since his high school underclass days. His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players -- Sam Fuld is the most prominent example -- so Mitchell is not in play for some clubs. That full list hasn't come into focus yet, but the assumption is that someone will take him in the middle of the first round. The Cubs have a new voice at the helm of their draft in Dan Kantrovitz (formerly with Oakland and St. Louis), and clubs have noticed them showing more interest in upside types than they did at their top pick in recent years.


Hassell went 8, Hendrick 12, Soderstrom 13, Crochet 14, Abel 17, PCA 18, Howard 37 and no Burns. Risers include Bitsko at 15 and Foscue at 19.


Yes, please.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 26, 2020 7:59 pm

I'm actually pretty much against Mitchell at 16 too, am just very rarely going to be into a college bat who skips the CCBL especially with the suspended draft season. Mitchell didn't record any playing time with Team USA either last summer, got an invite, so no postseason ball at all last year. The kind of improvements he made offensively during this year before shutdown were matched or bettered by guys who did go to the CCBL and hit like Daniel Cabrera, Zac Deloach, Alex Toral, Jacob Teter, Kaden Polcovich...I also find his swing very tight and armsy for a guy getting so much praise for athleticism...Not to assume too much but Kranovitz probably wasn't brought in to overhaul their approach on college hitters, more pitchers and HSers, and Mitchell is off profile for a college bat in the first

The upside talk is nice to hear though, I think it's the right way to go
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue May 26, 2020 8:30 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
The upside talk is nice to hear though, I think it's the right way to go

Yeah I think you go upside/risk with the picks this year and then go get the more projectable, higher/safer floor dudes in the UDFA part. Daniel Cabrera is probably my favorite pick if they do go with a “safe” pick at 16.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 26, 2020 8:56 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah I think you go upside/risk with the picks this year and then go get the more projectable, higher/safer floor dudes in the UDFA part. Daniel Cabrera is probably my favorite pick if they do go with a “safe” pick at 16.


Yeah, I feel the same way about Cabrera among the college bats. Just seems like a good, solid player with a long track record of hitting...I like DeLoach's chances to hit more than Mitchell maybe, at least feel more comfortable, and he too is a big (6'2" 200 maybe) LHH with a shot at quality defense maybe even in CF
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue May 26, 2020 10:14 pm

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue May 26, 2020 10:32 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I'm actually pretty much against Mitchell at 16 too, am just very rarely going to be into a college bat who skips the CCBL especially with the suspended draft season. Mitchell didn't record any playing time with Team USA either last summer, got an invite, so no postseason ball at all last year. The kind of improvements he made offensively during this year before shutdown were matched or bettered by guys who did go to the CCBL and hit like Daniel Cabrera, Zac Deloach, Alex Toral, Jacob Teter, Kaden Polcovich...I also find his swing very tight and armsy for a guy getting so much praise for athleticism...Not to assume too much but Kranovitz probably wasn't brought in to overhaul their approach on college hitters, more pitchers and HSers, and Mitchell is off profile for a college bat in the first

The upside talk is nice to hear though, I think it's the right way to go


Mitchell played for Team USA last summer but hurt his leg early on.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby stitchface » Tue May 26, 2020 10:48 pm

"His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players"

apparently has never heard of Ron Santo.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 27, 2020 1:19 pm

Longenhagen's new mock:

16. Chicago Cubs- Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

I think some of the teams picking in the middle of round one (Reds, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, D-backs) might be more motivated than usual to take a pitcher who they can plug and play in their bullpen sometime this summer, and the Phillies are perhaps the most needy of these. Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet and Texas Tech righty Clayton Beeter (in the James Karinchak mold mechanically, 94-98 with a 70 slider) each have two pitches that would probably miss big league bats right now and would be good fits for this.

Bullpenning them for the rest of this year doesn’t preclude you from developing them as starters next spring. It doesn’t seem Philly is limited to this player pool and is casting a wide net; they’re also interested in Bitsko and Soderstrom according to sources. Hassell is also just great value at this point and would be a threat to go at any of these picks.


Abel is gone by 12, PCA goes to Rays at 24...I'm on the Shuster wagon for college starter arms with two weeks to go, Cavalli's fastball command is a little weak makes it hittable and HRable
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 27, 2020 4:06 pm

BA:

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

Notes:
We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed May 27, 2020 4:20 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Longenhagen's new mock:

16. Chicago Cubs- Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

I think some of the teams picking in the middle of round one (Reds, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, D-backs) might be more motivated than usual to take a pitcher who they can plug and play in their bullpen sometime this summer, and the Phillies are perhaps the most needy of these. Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet and Texas Tech righty Clayton Beeter (in the James Karinchak mold mechanically, 94-98 with a 70 slider) each have two pitches that would probably miss big league bats right now and would be good fits for this.

Bullpenning them for the rest of this year doesn’t preclude you from developing them as starters next spring. It doesn’t seem Philly is limited to this player pool and is casting a wide net; they’re also interested in Bitsko and Soderstrom according to sources. Hassell is also just great value at this point and would be a threat to go at any of these picks.


Abel is gone by 12, PCA goes to Rays at 24...I'm on the Shuster wagon for college starter arms with two weeks to go, Cavalli's fastball command is a little weak makes it hittable and HRable


I don't think I've ever agreed with you this much, Tom, but here we are. Cavalli's fastaball command is the huge reason why I don't want him.

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA:

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

Notes:
We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.


I'm not optimistic Abel is there, but man would this be a fun pick.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Wed May 27, 2020 5:32 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA:

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

Notes:
We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.


I'm not optimistic Abel is there, but man would this be a fun pick.


Pretty much all of the names mentioned in that blurb would be exciting (except Austin Wells). I hope the chatter about the Cubs being more open to upside comes true. It doesn't have to be prep, but if the board falls that way to have one of Abel, Soderstrom, or Pete Crow-Armstrong (I doubt Hassell gets past picks 8-10) be the pick. There's risk there, but I would much prefer coming out of the draft with one of those three rather than a safe guy like Chris McMahon or one with previous health issues and reliever questions like Cavalli or Beeter.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 27, 2020 11:19 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA:

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

Notes:
We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about
more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.


BA finally tying the Cubs to arguably the highest ceiling arm and only true CF prospect in the draft? Finally and get it done, Kranovitz!

Wells screams smoke screen...No one thinks he can catch...OTOH he mostly fits the org's tendencies during the initial rebuild by coming off a big regular season and CCBL in 2019, still not too worried he's actually someone they would take
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CubsWin » Thu May 28, 2020 10:06 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA:

16 Mick Abel Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore RHP

Notes:
We’ve had the Cubs linked to bats fairly consistently in our 2020 mock draft process, with names like Hassell, Soderstrom and Arizona’s Austin Wells pegged to this pick. Hassell and Soderstrom have both been picked above and Wells is now being talked about
more in the 20-30 range. Prep bat Pete Crow-Armstrong could make sense here, but Abel’s upside is substantial, and he would be the best player available according to the BA 500, as the No. 11 player in the class.


BA finally tying the Cubs to arguably the highest ceiling arm and only true CF prospect in the draft? Finally and get it done, Kranovitz!

Wells screams smoke screen...No one thinks he can catch...OTOH he mostly fits the org's tendencies during the initial rebuild by coming off a big regular season and CCBL in 2019, still not too worried he's actually someone they would take

Is there a joke I'm not privy to by calling him Kranovitz?

Seriously asking. Not sarcasm.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 28, 2020 12:45 pm

No, I just got it wrong. He's new and my go to is Theo, so much easier to remember. I will nail the name every time if he drafts Abel, Crow-Armstrong, or someone else I like...or just get it right

---

Random player...If you like Tyler Soderstrom, maybe you will like Steve Williams from Auburn!? He's a 6'3" LHH RF, formerly a HS catcher, who had a killer freshman year in the SEC (.291/.409/.488 then a trip to the CCBL where he logged a .477 OBP with more walks than Ks in 88 PAs). He wasn't nearly as good in 2019, seemed to be bouncing back in 2020...Maybe he makes it to the UDFA pool
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 28, 2020 3:54 pm

Callis mock today (Abel, Bitsko, PCA, Howard, Foscue, Miller & Beeter were also available):

16. Cubs: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS
The Cubs have done a nice job signing and developing young amateur hitters, so it's no surprise that they get mentioned with prep bats such as Hassell, Hendrick, Howard and Soderstrom. They also need pitching help, so Crochet or the premier high school arms could make sense.


Law mock today (Abel, Howard, Mitchell, Crochett, Beeter & Miller were also available):

16. Chicago Cubs: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny (Penn.) HS

Hendrick has some of the best power in the high school class this year but has been dinged a bit for his age (he’ll turn 19 in mid-June) and didn’t get to play at all this spring.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 28, 2020 5:44 pm

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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Thu May 28, 2020 7:21 pm

Digging a bit more into the prep players, and Enrique Bradfield is my "stupid fast" player I want in the 3rd-5th. Vandy commit makes him extremely unlikely, though.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 28, 2020 8:38 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:Digging a bit more into the prep players, and Enrique Bradfield is my "stupid fast" player I want in the 3rd-5th. Vandy commit makes him extremely unlikely, though.


I’m generally wary of speed-first guys - especially this year since I only expect the Cubs to take 1 prep guy. I prefer to err on the side of better hit tools for prep guys and hope for better power down the road at the expense of speed/defense (it’s probably why I’m higher on Hassell than you). That said, his hit tool seems decent enough and with his speed and defense, I don’t care if he can’t hit for power.

But I think you’re right, he’s probably too expensive for the Cubs limited pool space.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 28, 2020 10:21 pm

Jared Kelley won the National Gatorade Player of the Year, joins a pretty productive list including multiple HOF and HOF caliber players. He's eligible to be the third baseball player in four years to win the national HS male athlete award (Witt 2019, Gore 2017)...Hot take out of that is that I think Kelley's going to be my top HS SP prospect for this draft

So basically I'm at Kelley, Abel, Crow-Armstrong, or Shuster at 16, will make excuses if they take anyone else or maybe I forgot someone...I don't think it's insane to go Carraway or Abbott if they believe one is a plug and play LHR and can grab a high ceiling prep arm like Griffin or Tiedemann after, but overall prefer a potential starter
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri May 29, 2020 3:21 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:Digging a bit more into the prep players, and Enrique Bradfield is my "stupid fast" player I want in the 3rd-5th. Vandy commit makes him extremely unlikely, though.


I’m generally wary of speed-first guys - especially this year since I only expect the Cubs to take 1 prep guy. I prefer to err on the side of better hit tools for prep guys and hope for better power down the road at the expense of speed/defense (it’s probably why I’m higher on Hassell than you). That said, his hit tool seems decent enough and with his speed and defense, I don’t care if he can’t hit for power.

But I think you’re right, he’s probably too expensive for the Cubs limited pool space.


As you said, I think Bradfield's hit tool is better than the usual prep speed demon types. But if the Cubs are only taking 1 prep guy, I definitely would not like to pass on one of those guys in the 1st so that Bradfield could be taken later.

Hit tool is always #1 for me, but the rest of the profile has to fit as well. With Hassell, there is too much "tweener" talk defensively and I really don't like no-power LFers. I like him much more if he sticks in CF.
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Re: 2020 Draft Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri May 29, 2020 3:23 pm

An alternative to MLBN and Harold Reynolds is something nice

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