2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby David » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:55 am

Derwood wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Derwood wrote:MLB Network said he was committed to Oklahoma. What are the chances he signs?


The normal % of most prep kids picked in the 1st round, close to 0%.


0% chance he signs, or 0% chance he opts for college?


come ON man
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:04 am

Hopefully Daniel Cabrera lasts to us in RD 2 tomorrow, then go nuts on pitching
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:10 am



I'm glad we're converting a bunch of Sox fans into Cubs fans tonight.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:15 am

Regular Show wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MDGonzales/status/1270912619294142465

I'm glad we're converting a bunch of Sox fans into Cubs fans tonight.

This guy is a complete horsefeathering loser but somehow has almost 15,000 followers. Glad we ruined his and his followers night.

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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:22 am

Named After Maddux wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:Well I still don’t think the Kjerstad pick made sense, but now with Bitsko off the table, I’m curious what picks 30 and 39 are going to look like for BAL.


Jared Kelley is still on board. I could see guys like Cade Horton or Carson Montgomery in the mix - both have commitments that could require big money to buy out. There's a few others. I actually like the idea of Cade Horton to the Orioles with one of their picks. Tanner Witt's still on board. There's a lot of HS guys that could need big dollars to not go to college.


Yes and even with pick 30 going for Westburg there’s ways they can add a lot of overslot talent still. But it definitely felt like Bitsko was their plan A. I would guess they take at least two big swings in the rest of their draft.

Maybe I’m not in the majority, but I preferred Austin Wells to Kjerstad.


It’s definitely the minority but I’m with you one preferring Wells.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Brian » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:43 am



If he's promising bat flips, I'm sold.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:58 am

So what are we expecting for the next pick? A super safe college starter like a Logan Allen or a Nick Swiney? Or do they double up on HS kids, knowing that slot at #51 is still probably enough to afford one without having to punt a pick later?
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby UK » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:59 am

I would have never thought in my life I would have seen the Cubs draft a HS kids out of the ACE program.

I haven't seen Howard play since Fall of 18' but he's as solid as they come.

He's been groomed for this forever, his maturity and makeup exceed his OFP grade (which was fair for a mid 1st).

I probably have to look back at my notes from 2013 as I might've had a higher grade on Corey Ray before going to UL but he's legit.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:27 am

UK wrote:I would have never thought in my life I would have seen the Cubs draft a HS kids out of the ACE program.

I haven't seen Howard play since Fall of 18' but he's as solid as they come.

He's been groomed for this forever, his maturity and makeup exceed his OFP grade (which was fair for a mid 1st).


I'm glad you had the chance to see him. I tried asking you about Ed Howard a while back, but you never responded or got back to me lol.

I was planning on going to a game and seeing him in-person before coronavirus messed up everything.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:36 am



Not happy about this... Dodgers always draft well and have a great player development department.

Incredible arm and he's from Illinois and is also a huge Cubs fan. I pray we don't regret passing on him.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:01 am



16. Cubs: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS
The Cubs got the best shortstop in the Draft in Howard, a local kid from a Chicago high school. He’s a smooth defender who undoubtedly will stay at the position, and I think his bat is a little underrated. I think he can hit for some power and average, and he has some solid speed as well.


I know Jim Callis is a big fan of Ed Howard.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:40 am

Bertz wrote:So what are we expecting for the next pick? A super safe college starter like a Logan Allen or a Nick Swiney? Or do they double up on HS kids, knowing that slot at #51 is still probably enough to afford one without having to punt a pick later?


Imo, if you’re going prep once more, it has to be the 2nd rounder. Minimize the risk of losing the prospect and maximize your pool space.

I wouldn’t be shocked if there are no prep picks after the 3rd round since there won’t be any compensation for unsigned picks starting in the 4th.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:35 pm

I don't think either Swiney or Logan Allen are particularly safe, Daniel Cabrera or Andrew Abbott/Burl Carraway are more along the lines of safe. Think they should go for an overslot, not sure Howard gets above so there might be wiggle room in the 2nd...Convince Jared Kelley, somehow!
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:43 pm

What kind of comps have been thrown out for Howard? Scouting reports seem like he has an Edgar Renteria-type ceiling.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:52 pm

Derwood wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Derwood wrote:
0% chance he signs, or 0% chance he opts for college?

Derwood, read the room.


I'm clarifying, because I know jack and horsefeathers about the draft and signings and how it all works.


Which is fine, especially in this weird year, but by the time you asked there were about 20 posts talking about where he would slot in to our system, how he is going to rank, etc. with minimal to no discussion on signability concerns. Mostly just giving you a hard time, but....come on, pick up some context.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby big ball chunky time » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:07 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:What kind of comps have been thrown out for Howard? Scouting reports seem like he has an Edgar Renteria-type ceiling.


it sounded like ... addison russell
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:19 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I don't think either Swiney or Logan Allen are particularly safe, Daniel Cabrera or Andrew Abbott/Burl Carraway are more along the lines of safe. Think they should go for an overslot, not sure Howard gets above so there might be wiggle room in the 2nd...Convince Jared Kelley, somehow!


Abbott seems a bit high in the 2nd, at least, for where the Cubs are picking. Not unreasonable, but much as I like him, just seems a touch high. I think he'll be an interesting case. I could see a team drafting him and seeing if he can get some junk innings in the majors out of the pen this year, and then send him back to A/AA and see if he can develop as a starter. There was a train of thought that UVA should've given him a rotation spot this year (and it's possible that he could've gotten one as the season progressed), but the raw arm talent of some of the guys there, plus Abbott being used out of the pen before, probably tilted the discussion.

____

If Howard doesn't get slot, he seems likely to get close to slot. I'm going to be mildly surprised if they pop another upside HS pick, but I'd certainly be fine with it.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby David » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:26 pm

Image

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that's him in #9
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:27 pm

toonsterwu wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:I don't think either Swiney or Logan Allen are particularly safe, Daniel Cabrera or Andrew Abbott/Burl Carraway are more along the lines of safe. Think they should go for an overslot, not sure Howard gets above so there might be wiggle room in the 2nd...Convince Jared Kelley, somehow!


Abbott seems a bit high in the 2nd, at least, for where the Cubs are picking. Not unreasonable, but much as I like him, just seems a touch high. I think he'll be an interesting case. I could see a team drafting him and seeing if he can get some junk innings in the majors out of the pen this year, and then send him back to A/AA and see if he can develop as a starter. There was a train of thought that UVA should've given him a rotation spot this year (and it's possible that he could've gotten one as the season progressed), but the raw arm talent of some of the guys there, plus Abbott being used out of the pen before, probably tilted the discussion.

____

If Howard doesn't get slot, he seems likely to get close to slot. I'm going to be mildly surprised if they pop another upside HS pick, but I'd certainly be fine with it.


I don't think Abbott has a serious shot at being the second round pick because it's their best shot to overslot a top faller. He's more an ideal 3rd or even 4th if teams are feeling wild, but I think if you're looking for a safe pitcher he is up there. Abbott's got similarities to Howard in that they're two of the huge makeup guys in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if he can contribute on a winning team from day 1, the SP thing can happen later as opportunity arises over time.
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:28 pm

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap/

It’s a good read. Sounds like the Orioles were hoping for Bitsko after going with Kjerstad at 2. Will be interesting to see how the Red Sox play things today with all that savings.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:05 pm

Ben Badler at BA:

Instant Analysis: The Cubs stay local to pick Howard and have to be happy to be able to land the top high school shortstop in the draft in the middle of the first round. Howard is a true shortstop who projects to stay at the position, with easy actions in the field and in the batter's box. With the Cubs expected to sign Dominican shortstop Cristian Hernandez (the top prospect in the 2020 international class for some scouts), that's a dynamic haul of premium shortstops coming for the organization.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Derwood » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:35 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Derwood wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Derwood, read the room.


I'm clarifying, because I know jack and horsefeathers about the draft and signings and how it all works.


Which is fine, especially in this weird year, but by the time you asked there were about 20 posts talking about where he would slot in to our system, how he is going to rank, etc. with minimal to no discussion on signability concerns. Mostly just giving you a hard time, but....come on, pick up some context.


Raisin's response is what threw me (and he has since clarified)
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:53 pm


That's awesome lol.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:07 pm

I liked this exchange from a previous Fangraphs chat/discussion in the International Free Agency thread.

CubsWin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Ed Howard or Cristian Hernandez among signable amateur HS aged SSs this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: oooh, good one. man, that’s close. I’ll say Hernandez, more body projection. Howard is the better glove, though.


McDaniel leaned Howard so these two prospects might start a war

Take Howard with the 16th pick and let em battle it out!


Should be fun to watch.
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Re: 2020 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Over the last few days, various publications linked a handful of guys to the Cubs as possible 2nd rounders or even later.

The only ones still available are prep RHPs Jared Jones, Ben Hernandez and ECU 1B Alec Burleson (who would be a later round pick today).
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