2013 Draft Discussion

seattlecub · May 19, 2012

don't want to get ahead of myself, what with the 2012 draft still to come and the regular season still to play out, but it looks like we'll be picking fairly high in that draft (currently 3rd worst in MLB) so i was wondering if anyone knows anything about the relative strength of the potential draft prospects.

toonsterwu · May 19, 2012

Others will chime in with a lot more information, but to my best understanding, at this early stage, the top of the 2013 draft looks far better than the top of this year's draft, with some intriguing arms and some intriguing bat potential. A long way to go, though. Off the top, Whitson/Stanek seem to top the college arm list, and Austin Wilson is probably the college bat that intrigues me the most.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 19, 2012

CR says Ryne Stanek from Arkansas would be the best pitcher in this draft, and he looks damn impressive on the stuff online.

A little more conventional than Gausman, my favorite arm this year, mechanically.

Austin Wilson would be my bat of choice. He's a monster (6'5" 250) RF for Stanford who's hitting .297/.408/.526 this year with 20 BB, 14 HBP, 35 K's (fewer than Richie Shaffer, arguably the top college bat in this year's draft, despite the difference in size/length), 5/5 in SB, and big time pedigree. My only knock might be only 9 doubles, but his power ceiling is as high as any college bat that's come out in a while.

Karsten Whitson was a good pitching prospect in HS as was Dylan Covey, and both will be eligible. I'm not as big a fan of Whitson as I hear I should be, but I did like him alot in HS.

There's another college bat that was mentioned on minorleagueball, Dominic Ficociello, who plays 1B for the Razorbacks. I like his athleticism and etc, but he plays 1B and might not have the power. Some say he can play 3B but it's best to know for sure.

I'm thinking hope for Stanek or Wilson.

May 19, 2012

don't want to get ahead of myself, what with the 2012 draft still to come and the regular season still to play out, but it looks like we'll be picking fairly high in that draft (currently 3rd worst in MLB) so i was wondering if anyone knows anything about the relative strength of the potential draft prospects.

It might be a stronger draft than this year at the top but obviously nowhere near 2011. There are some real nice bats at the top. Karsten Whitson is a wild card. He was the 9th overall pick in 2010 but went to Florida instead. He was great as a freshman but he's been hurt a lot and has barely been hitting 90 of late. No idea on the HS class.

My top 4, in order, of the college players:

1. 3B Kris Bryant, San Diego - athletic, great plate discipline, immense power

2. RHP Ryne Stanek, Arkansas - 93-97 FB, power curve, potential plus slider, maintains FB velocity late in games; definite ace potential

3. 3B Colin Moran, North Carolina - has missed a lot of this season with injury

4. OF Austin Wilson, Stanford - still some questions about his pitch recognition/ability against offspeed pitches

After those 4, I like these guys in no particular order:

RHP Ryan Eades, LSU

RHP Jonathan Crawford, Florida

RHP Bobby Wahl, Ole Miss

1B Brian Ragira, Stanford

1B Dominic Ficociello, Arkansas

OF Michael Lorenzen, Cal State Fullerton

Biggest name prep guys:

C Jeremy Martinez, Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, CA)

OF Austin Meadows, Grayson HS (Loganville, GA)

SS Oscar Mercado, Gaither HS (Tampa, FL)

RHP Clinton Hollon, Woodford County HS (Versailles, KY)

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 19, 2012

CR is Bryant that good? How does he compare to other top college bats of the decade? My guess is his big advantage over Wilson will be position and contact ability, which are pretty big advantages. What kind of ceiling do you think he has?

I like Lorenzen.

toonsterwu · May 19, 2012

There's a lot I like about Ryan Eades, and he might be better with another year to get stronger, but watching him pitch today reminded me that I really don't love his arm action/mechanics.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 19, 2012

What's so bad about Eades' arm action? It's not the best but a little reminiscent of a Jarrod Parker.

I want to see more of this Bryant fellow.

May 19, 2012

CR is Bryant that good? How does he compare to other top college bats of the decade? My guess is his big advantage over Wilson will be position and contact ability, which are pretty big advantages. What kind of ceiling do you think he has?

I like Lorenzen.

I like him better than Anthony Rendon (I bet Jim Callis won't), Pedro Alvarez and Dustin Ackley. I think Matt Wieters was better coming out of college.

Scroll down to Strike 3 in this link to read more on Bryant from earlier this month: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2012/05/three-strikes-week-12-2/

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 19, 2012

I'm sold. He's got the size (6'5" 22something), makes more contact than Wilson, has put up better all around numbers...Good to see the number of top players increase for a year the Cubs might have the pick of the litter.

toonsterwu · May 20, 2012

What's so bad about Eades' arm action? It's not the best but a little reminiscent of a Jarrod Parker.

I want to see more of this Bryant fellow.

Um ... is that a positive comparison? Because ... comparing his arm action/mechanics to Jarrod Parker's isn't all that positive IMO. Now, I've seen it argued that Parker's arm action was good, but that he was a mechanical mess, and more knowledgeable folks can dissect that (and I should've been clear, I'm not a fan of Eades general mechanics, at least, what I've seen. The arm action didn't look too clean, but one game is one game.). Furthermore, Parker has actually somewhat remade himself as a starter, by all indications, in an effort to limit the strain he puts on himself.

I don't think it's an end of the world type thing for Eades, but I don't love it.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 22, 2012

Parker had bad mechanics/arm action? Coulda fooled me...a little whippy early on but loose and easy to me.

Like any and every pitcher who has had TJ surgery he's bettered his mechanics since, but I don't think anyone thought he was poor mechanically before that.

toonsterwu · May 22, 2012

Parker had bad mechanics/arm action? Coulda fooled me...a little whippy early on but loose and easy to me.

Like any and every pitcher who has had TJ surgery he's bettered his mechanics since, but I don't think anyone thought he was poor mechanically before that.

As an aside first, Parker's a different pitcher this year. He's going to the 2-seamer and the change-up a lot more to lessen his stress.

That said, there were definite concerns on his mechanics/arm action. One argument out there dealt with his arm action, IIRC (could be wrong), and another was that the arm action was fine (not superb, but fine), but that he had poor foot placement, or weight transfer, or something else that led to problems and increased stress.

I haven't paid attention to Parker in awhile, so I don't recall the specifics, but there was some concern a couple years ago.

Edit: So, on google, the only things I found right now were

a) A critique of his weight transfer. Lauded his arm action but said that the poor weight transfer was a big issue. Also critiqued his follow through.

http://baseballinstinct.com/2010/05/18/prospect-instinct-jarrod-parker/

b) A comment Parker made post-surgery to Adam Foster.

I just feel like post-surgery I began to finish over my front side a little more and get more out of my shoulder and take stress of my elbow.

Seems to sort of jive with baseballinstincts concerns on his transfer and follow through.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/12/17/jarrod-parker-interview-part-1

____

Maybe I'm thinking of someone else on arm action concerns, but that's probably the gist of the mechanical concerns I was thinking of. I'll spend a few seconds digging after my conference call.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 22, 2012

As an aside first, Parker's a different pitcher this year. He's going to the 2-seamer and the change-up a lot more to lessen his stress.

That said, there were definite concerns on his mechanics/arm action. One argument out there dealt with his arm action, IIRC (could be wrong), and another was that the arm action was fine (not superb, but fine), but that he had poor foot placement, or weight transfer, or something else that led to problems and increased stress.

I haven't paid attention to Parker in awhile, so I don't recall the specifics, but there was some concern a couple years ago.

That aside sounds like he's just growing up as a pitcher. The 2 seamer and changeup are two pitches that have become hugely popular in the past decade amongst big leaguers along with the cutter. Both pitches have their logic...neither is as bad for the arm, 2 seamers get more groundballs/quick outs, chaneups are a safer offspeed alternative...They should be in everyone's arsenal and as guys get older they usually find their way in.

Here's a quote:

AF: Have you made any alterations to your mechanics upon return?

JP: Not anything big delivery-wise. I just feel like post-surgery I began to finish over my front side a little more and get more out of my shoulder and take stress of my elbow.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/12/17/jarrod-parker-interview-part-1

Sounds like you might have guessed right with foot placement, but that's hardly an indictment on a young pitcher's overall mechanics. Anyone and everyone has an issue or two coming into the pros. I specifically remember Parker got much praise for his arm action coming out, though there was some worry that it might be "too" whippy (hence the elbow injury). Since the surgery he's tightened it up, but these problems don't sound like anything extreme or out of the ordinary.

I hope this doesn't have to go on for another 100,000 words.

toonsterwu · May 22, 2012

I hope this doesn't have to go on for another 100,000 words.

Total aside, but no need to feel so chippy (saw the comment you deleted about vaguely specific scouting reports). We're on a site talking about baseball. Not exactly the most important thing in the world. I type fast, and I type a lot ... every sports site that I've been on knows that I don't type like kids do these days, with shorthand of some sort. I mean, you can go on Sickels and see my insanely long Cubs write-up for an insanely long post I made sports related (although I actually started that at the end of the season, so it really wasn't like I sat down and did that in one writing).

I apologize if you find my length of typing to be offensive ... but seriously, relax. It isn't you ... I just picked up CR's discussion on Raley/Rosario. I'd do that on a number of other topics as well. It's people talking about baseball.

May 22, 2012

I've found the discussion to be entertaining & rewarding, fwiw.

toonsterwu · May 22, 2012

I've found the discussion to be entertaining & rewarding, fwiw.

Don't want to drag too far off topic from this thread's purpose here, but I really should reiterate ... I'm really not a big fan of Jae-Hoon Ha (and I admittedly did not realize he played some XST CF) and Jose Rosario (who I've said before I think wiill become a pen arm). I guess ... it's the old debater in me ....

____

PriortoTheoIhadWood · May 22, 2012

I hope this doesn't have to go on for another 100,000 words.

Total aside, but no need to feel so chippy (saw the comment you deleted about vaguely specific scouting reports). We're on a site talking about baseball. Not exactly the most important thing in the world. I type fast, and I type a lot ... every sports site that I've been on knows that I don't type like kids do these days, with shorthand of some sort. I mean, you can go on Sickels and see my insanely long Cubs write-up for an insanely long post I made sports related (although I actually started that at the end of the season, so it really wasn't like I sat down and did that in one writing).

I apologize if you find my length of typing to be offensive ... but seriously, relax. It isn't you ... I just picked up CR's discussion on Raley/Rosario. I'd do that on a number of other topics as well. It's people talking about baseball.

I don't find it offensive, keep doing it. Ita fun to chip (what's that?) at but this place is better for it.

Why even bring up the deletion? I took that out because I thought it was smarmy and really all scouting reports end up being more vague and generic than wanted/expected.

Plus, don't you notice that I type many words as well? I've been on Sickels forever (I created the first successful/tasteful thread about religion on the Internet there back when it was newish) and I was SenorGato on BCB last year. Words are fun and I like good debate (which those twats at BCB don't offer, it's a gang mentality in there), especially baseball.

fan_in_China · May 22, 2012

(Disclaimer: Whenever I read mock drafts, and I slowly scroll down pretending I am the Cubs GM, I never do this, and I almost always take Correa)

This might belong in this years draft thread, but it strongly relates to this topic, so I'll put it here. Seeing the number of talented college guys (especially bats) in next years class really makes me want the Cubs to take Gio this year. Whoever picks him will have 3 possible outcomes:

1. (least likely) He doesn't regain his form, but he signs a cheaper deal to be safe with his only multimillion dollar asset.

2. He looks like a future ace again, and the Cubs have SP with CY upside. (significantly higher upside than the big 3 college guys)

3. He doesn't sign, and next year the Cubs get the no. 7 pick where they can take a college bat (the safest kind of prospect!). It would feel sad for a year, but it wouldn't really lose a year of development time given that the guys most often mocked to the Cubs (Correa, Fried, Almora) are high school guys that are far away.

There might be a large hole in my theory, but all 3 of those outcomes seem like giant wins for the cubs. Of course if Buxton or Zunino fall (or if Theo sees Arod/Machado/Montanez :( in Correa) I will be happy with any of those picks. That is just my 2 cents/10,000 words.

UK1679666180 · May 22, 2012

Austin Wilson OF SO R-R 6-4 235 Stanford North Hollywood CA

Ryan Eades RHP SO B-R 6-3 195 Louisiana State Slidell LA

Austin Kubitza RHP SO L-R 6-5 205 Rice Colleyville TX

JaCoby Jones OF/3B SO R-R 6-3 200 Louisiana State Richton MS

Clinton Hollon RHP JR R-R 6-1 190 Woodford County Lexington KY

Josh Dezse RHP/1B SO R-R 6-5 225 Ohio State Powell OH

Bobby Wahl RHP SO R-R 6-4 200 Mississippi Springfield VA

Adam Plutko RHP SO R-R 6-3 190 UCLA Upland CA

Austin Meadows OF JR L-L 6-3 195 Grayson Loganville GA

Oscar Mercado SS JR R-R 6-1 170 Gaither Tampa FL

Chris Rivera SS JR R-R 6-0 175 El Dorado Anaheim CA

Kris Bryant 3B/1B SO R-R 6-5 205 San Diego Las Vegas NV

Michael Lorenzen OF/RHP SO R-R 6-3 195 Cal State Fullerton

Sheldon Neuse RHP JR R-R 6-0 170 Fossil Ridge Fort Worth TX

Reese McGuire C JR L-R 6-1 180 Kentwood Covington WA

In no order, HS in bold. It's a shame with Whitson, he was the consensus #1 overall pick for '13 coming into this season.

May 22, 2012

I don't think Plutko sniffs the 1st round - he's 88-92 and has been since he stepped on campus. Knows how to pitch but that's not 1st round material.

I like JaCoby Jones a lot.

UK1679666180 · May 22, 2012

I don't think Plutko sniffs the 1st round - he's 88-92 and has been since he stepped on campus. Knows how to pitch but that's not 1st round material.

I like JaCoby Jones a lot.

I haven't followed UCLA much at all, I know going into this year he was a likely 1st.

Did you watch Jones/LSU vs. USC?

May 22, 2012

I don't think Plutko sniffs the 1st round - he's 88-92 and has been since he stepped on campus. Knows how to pitch but that's not 1st round material.

I like JaCoby Jones a lot.

I haven't followed UCLA much at all, I know going into this year he was a likely 1st.

Did you watch Jones/LSU vs. USC?

Don't get me wrong, Plutko has been better statistically this year. I just see a great college pitcher who doesn't project too well in the big leagues.

Yeah, I caught some of that LSU-South Carolina series on ESPNU. Jones stood out. I really wanted to see Gausman but the rain out screwed that up.

toonsterwu · May 22, 2012

I hope this doesn't have to go on for another 100,000 words.

Total aside, but no need to feel so chippy (saw the comment you deleted about vaguely specific scouting reports). We're on a site talking about baseball. Not exactly the most important thing in the world. I type fast, and I type a lot ... every sports site that I've been on knows that I don't type like kids do these days, with shorthand of some sort. I mean, you can go on Sickels and see my insanely long Cubs write-up for an insanely long post I made sports related (although I actually started that at the end of the season, so it really wasn't like I sat down and did that in one writing).

I apologize if you find my length of typing to be offensive ... but seriously, relax. It isn't you ... I just picked up CR's discussion on Raley/Rosario. I'd do that on a number of other topics as well. It's people talking about baseball.

I don't find it offensive, keep doing it. Ita fun to chip (what's that?) at but this place is better for it.

Why even bring up the deletion? I took that out because I thought it was smarmy and really all scouting reports end up being more vague and generic than wanted/expected.

Plus, don't you notice that I type many words as well? I've been on Sickels forever (I created the first successful/tasteful thread about religion on the Internet there back when it was newish) and I was SenorGato on BCB last year. Words are fun and I like good debate (which those [expletive] at BCB don't offer, it's a gang mentality in there), especially baseball.

I figured you were SenorGato ... just wasn't a big enough issue for me to ask (largely because your comments on Archer seemed very similar in wording to your comments on Archer over at Sickels).

May 23, 2012

And the Cubs currently have the #1 pick in the '13 draft.

UK1679666180 · May 23, 2012

I doubt they'll end up with it, but I wouldn't mind them tanking for the top pick.

"Tank for Prior"

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