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 Post subject: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 8:17 pm 
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None of the major draft publications have released any draft boards for 2014 so here's my list of top college guys for 2014. Keep in mind, this time last year, not only did no one know Sean Manaea, even Jonathon Crawford hadn't blown up and turned into a possible top 10 pick. These kids develop at different paces.

1. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State – Would have been the #1 overall pick in 2012 as a freshman if he were eligible. Ditto for this year’s draft.
2. Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State – He is converting to SS and I think he can pull it off (he played 3B as a freshman) but if he can’t handle SS, his stock would drop quite a bit. Probably has 80 speed.
3. Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt – First round pick in 2011 who struggled last season as a freshman but has come on strong this year with a rebound in velocity.
4. Austin Cousino, OF, Kentucky
5. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina – Broke out in the Cape Cod League.
6. Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia
7. Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State – Love his bat but he’s not as athletic as Cousino or Fisher. Will have to play corner OF.
8. Michael Cederoth, RHP, San Diego State
9. Matt Chapman, 3B, Cal State Fullerton
10. Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville - Has hit 100 - currently closing for Louisville but should have starting potential.
11. Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU – LSU’s Friday night starter over potential 2013 first rounder Ryan Eades.
12. Kevin Cron, 1B, Texas Christian – CJ Cron’s brother.
13. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU
14. Mason Robbins, OF, Southern Mississippi

Karsten Whitson, RHP, Florida – It’s possible he returns for a redshirt junior season and bounces back to where he was last fall and his freshman year.

High School:

Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis HS (Clovis, CA) – Perfect Game, BA and Keith Law have mentioned he’s a possible top-10 pick.
Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA) – Perfect Game, BA and Keith Law have mentioned he’s a possible top-10 pick.
Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs Academy (Coral Springs, FL) – Topped out at 97 in a showcase event, BA *loves* him.
Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (MFer Windermere, FL) – Dee Gordon’s brother. BA and PG love him but dude still only weighs 140 lbs as a HS junior.

Overall, the 2014 draft is stronger than 2012 and 2013. The college class of 2014 is easily much stronger than the past two years and if Gatewood and Jackson are as good as their hype, the HS class will definitely be stronger than this year's draft.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 9:35 pm 
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Just looked up a bit on Gatewood. A 6'5 shortstop? That's unique, assuming he has a shot to stick.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:13 am 
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Have to assume Whitson is going to stay until '14. Even if he rebounds and has a healthy season I still don't think you can take him in the first round. I Really wish there was even a slight chance at getting Rodon.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:17 am 
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How much better of a prospect, at this point, is Rodon than, say, Manaea?

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:58 pm 
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Callis answered this question today. Here are his top 5 2013 and 2014 draft prospects.

1. Carlos Rodon, lhp, North Carolina State (2014 draft)
His 92-96 mph fastball and his slider are unhittable.
2. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford (2013 draft)
Entered 2012 as top draft prospect, did the same this year.
3. Austin Meadows, of, Grayson HS, Loganville, Ga. (2013 draft)
Grayson also has nation's top prep football prospect this year (Robert Nkemdiche).
4. Sean Manaea, lhp, Indiana State (2013 draft)
Dominated Cape League with mid-90s fastball that touched 98 mph.
5. Alex Jackson, c/of, Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego (2014 draft)
Owns plus power and may be able to stay behind the plate.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:13 am 
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David wrote:
How much better of a prospect, at this point, is Rodon than, say, Manaea?


In the Ask BA column Redfood mentioned, Callis suggested Rodon would be a top 20 prospect if he were in the minors now while Manaea would be in the top 40.

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In terms of where they'd fit on my personal Top 100, the best way to look at that is to stack them up against prospects at the same position. I like Rodon more than lefthanders Tyler Skaggs (Diamondbacks, No. 20 on my list) and Danny Hultzen (Mariners, No. 22), so he'd fit in the teens somewhere. Appel rated slightly ahead of fellow college righthanders Kevin Gausman (Orioles, No. 23) and Kyle Zimmer (Royals, No. 24) in the 2012 draft, and I'd also put him in front of Hultzen.

Meadows would fit in the same range as recent high school top-six outfield picks Albert Almora (Cubs, No. 36) and Bubba Starling (Royals, No. 37). Depending on how you want to look at it, Meadows is toolsier than Almora and more polished than Starling, and also less polished than Almora and less toolsy than Starling. I'd put Meadows behind them both.

Manaea will rise on this list if he shows better and more consistent secondary pitches this spring. For now, I'd put him right behind Meadows, which puts him a couple spots ahead of lefty Andrew Heaney (Marlins, No. 40), who has more pitchability but less raw stuff.

Jackson is hard to place because there aren't a lot of quality catching prospects in pro ball and because he's also not a lock to stay behind the plate. He's also a high schooler two years away from turning pro. I'd put him somewhere close behind Gary Sanchez (Yankees, No. 61), who has a similar offensive profile, a track record of hitting in pro ball and a better chance to remain a catcher.


Consistency and control are the biggest issue for Manaea. His raw fastball is better than Rodon's but Rodon has a better second and third pitch and he's had success for a longer time (Manaea just blew up last summer in the Cape Cod League while Rodon was well thought of during his senior year in high school).


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:17 am 
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The Astros can go ahead and lay claim to Rodon, they may not win 40 games this year. The Twins, Marlins, and Rockies are all going to be awful as well. My guess is thats the top 4(or bottom). After that, it'll get really shaky. If we miss the playoffs, it makes since to finish in the worst 10 records, especially since I suspect we'll be after higher end FA next offseason. But I think it'll take a relatively large selloff for us to finish in that area personally. Right now, I think the Orioles, Royals, Mariners, Mets, Pirates, Brewers, and Padres will all be in the same win range as us.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:23 am 
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davell wrote:
The Astros can go ahead and lay claim to Rodon, they may not win 40 games this year. The Twins, Marlins, and Rockies are all going to be awful as well. My guess is thats the top 4(or bottom). After that, it'll get really shaky. If we miss the playoffs, it makes since to finish in the worst 10 records, especially since I suspect we'll be after higher end FA next offseason. But I think it'll take a relatively large selloff for us to finish in that area personally. Right now, I think the Orioles, Royals, Mariners, Mets, Pirates, Brewers, and Padres will all be in the same win range as us.

I agree, I see us picking somewhere in the top 12 next year but probably not top 4. I'd probably throw the D'backs and Indians in that group of the last teams that are close to us as well.

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Last edited by Cubswin11 on Sat Mar 02, 2013 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:46 pm 
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Rodon went 7 hitless, walked 1, K'd 14.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:07 pm 
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davell wrote:
Rodon went 7 hitless, walked 1, K'd 14.

Cubs should start tanking now.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:46 pm 
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CubsWin wrote:
davell wrote:
Rodon went 7 hitless, walked 1, K'd 14.

Cubs should start tanking now.


I think we can start referring to Rodon as "future Astro Carlos Rodon."

The bullpen held up their part for a combined no-hitter for NC State.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:59 pm 
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CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
I think we can start referring to Rodon as "future Astro Carlos Rodon."

Too true... :(

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:32 pm 
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Jacob Lindgren, a 2011 Cubs 12th rounder who didn't sign, is blowing up for Mississippi State and looks like a first rounder next year.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:32 pm 
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Rodon so far today- 4 perfect, 10 K's.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:41 pm 
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12 K's and perfect thru 5 now. Last 2 starts for Rodon: 12IP, 0H, 1W, 26K's.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 6:39 pm 
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Thru 7, he's given up 3 hits, 3 walks, a run, and K'd 16. Done for the day.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 7:21 pm 
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CubsWin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
I think we can start referring to Rodon as "future Astro Carlos Rodon."

Too true... :(


It'd almost be painful to have the number 1 pick and have to "suffer" threw every single 100+pitch start hoping he doesn't blow his elbow out. Well, not painful, but stressful.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 6:26 pm 
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Michael Conforto hit four home runs this weekend.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2013 8:55 pm 
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The more I read about the guys in this class, the more I'm seeing a class like 2011.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 11:38 am 
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Kiley McDaniel:

Quote:
Speaking of slam dunk first rounders, San Diego State RHP Michael Cederoth at first blush will remind some of a number one overall pick from the same school, Stephen Strasburg, but the comparisons isn’t apt. Cederoth has the same velocity: one scout told me he hit 100 in pregame warm-ups and sat 95-99 mph during the game. The Strasburg comp ends with the secondary stuff, as Cederoth’s isn’t advanced and is more average


TCU lefty Brandon Finnegan is trending up while TCU 1B Kevin Cron is trending down.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 4:09 pm 
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Yikes. Carlos Rodon gave up 8 runs to Clemson in the 4th after 3 scoreless innings.

This game is on ESPN3.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:40 pm 
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Nick Burdi: 3 IP 1 H 0 R 1 BB 7 K's

His max effort delivery is still a little scary.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:27 pm 
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Trea Turner sprained his ankle and is out 4-6 weeks.

Jacob Lindgren was hit by a line drive on his knee on Friday and will miss at least a couple of weeks.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 11:00 pm 
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Joel (KCK): I know the strikeouts have been there all year, but how can one explain Carlos Rodon's two bad outings from an earned runs standpoint? Will more games like this affect his status as the consensus #1 prospect in 2014, or are they simply just aberrations? Thanks

John Manuel: Hard to know if they are "simply aberrations" or what. The Ks are there. We have reports of his velocity fluctuating from start to start, but it does sound like consistently, his fastball velo is down a bit this year. That always creates injury rumors, and that's all they are at this point—rumors. Rodon is still showing swing & miss stuff, but he has made mistakes with his cutter & changeup and has been punished for them. The other thing to keep in mind is, he's human. He's a college sophomore. No one is perfect. At his best, he's better than anyone else in the 2014 class. He hasn't been at his best yet this year on two occasions in four starts.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Draft Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:46 am 
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I love Derek Fisher, but I still wonder if he goes that high. His bat does seem to be that good, though, and could carry him there.

Two UVA guys I wouldn't sleep on (the sophomore class is very good ... ) -

Brandon Downes - I believe the Red Sox drafted him late in 2011, so Theo should have some information on him. Tall, lanky kid with above average speed and a chance to stick in CF, and there's some developing power. Approach is fairly solid. He doubles as the backup catcher at times, but his future is in the OF. May have to move to the corner long run, but through his pre-prime, should have enough to be considered in CF.

Nick Howard - Perhaps UVA's most fascinating prospect in that, I really don't know if his future is best as a starter or as a 3rd baseman. He's that solid in both areas. I guess we'll see how his stuff holds through ACC season, but I wonder if doing both things hurts him a bit. I just wonder if he might push forward a lot more as a pitcher if he focused just on that. As a 3rd baseman, seems to have the range and action to stick, along with the power potential.

(to be clear, I don't really think Howard will emerge as a top 2 round type selection ... Downes, on the other hand, I think has the ability to potentially go in the top 2 rounds)


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