2013 Draft Day Thread + Cubs Picks Discussion

As in past years, let's have one dedicated, individual thread to talk about the draft once it commences and Cubs signings once the draft is over. (I started this thread a few hours early since I won't be by a computer when the draft begins and I figured all the links would be useful in one post and place).

The draft starts today at 6 pm CT and can be seen on the MLB Network and at MLB.com. Also, you can follow along on the draft’s Twitter account (h/t Tranny Tiger).The first two rounds will be today. Rounds 3 – 10 will be tomorrow (starting at 12 pm CT) and rounds 11 – 40 will be on Saturday (starting at 12 pm CT). Days 2 and 3 will not be televised.

Day 1 Draft Order:

First Round:

1. Houston Astros

2. Chicago Cubs

3. Colorado Rockies

4. Minnesota Twins

5. Cleveland Indians

6. Miami Marlins

7. Boston Red Sox

8. Kansas City Royals

9. Pittsburgh Pirates (for failure to sign 2012 first-rounder Mark Appel)

10. Toronto Blue Jays

11. New York Mets

12. Seattle Mariners

13. San Diego Padres

14. Pittsburgh Pirates

15. Arizona Diamondbacks

16. Philadelphia Phillies

17. Chicago White Sox

18. Los Angeles Dodgers

19. St. Louis Cardinals

20. Detroit Tigers

21. Tampa Bay Rays

22. Baltimore Orioles

23. Texas Rangers

24. Oakland Athletics

25. San Francisco Giants

26. New York Yankees

27. Cincinnati Reds

28. St. Louis Cardinals (Pick from Brewers as compensation for loss of free agent Kyle Lohse)

29. Tampa Bay Rays (Pick from Braves as compensation for loss of free agent B.J. Upton)

30. Texas Rangers (Pick from Angels as compensation for loss of free agent Josh Hamilton)

31. Atlanta Braves (Pick from Indians as compensation for loss of free agent Michael Bourn)

32. New York Yankees (Pick from Indians as compensation for loss of free agent Nick Swisher)

33. New York Yankees (Pick from Nationals as compensation for loss of free agent Rafael Soriano)

Competitive Balance Round A:

34. Kansas City Royals

35. Miami Marlins (from the Pirates)

36. Arizona Diamondbacks

37. Baltimore Orioles

38. Cincinnati Reds

39. Detroit Tigers (from the Marlins)

Second Round:

40. Houston Astros

41. Chicago Cubs

42. Colorado Rockies

43. Minnesota Twins

44. Miami Marlins

45. Boston Red Sox

46. Kansas City Royals

47. Toronto Blue Jays

48. New York Mets

49. Seattle Mariners

50. San Diego Padres

51. Pittsburgh Pirates

52. Arizona Diamondbacks

53. Philadelphia Phillies

54. Milwaukee Brewers

55. Chicago White Sox

56. Los Angeles Dodgers

57. St. Louis Cardinals

58. Detroit Tigers

59. Los Angeles Angels

60. Tampa Bay Rays

61. Baltimore Orioles

62. Texas Rangers

63. Oakland Athletics

64. San Francisco Giants

65. Atlanta Braves

66. New York Yankees

67. Cincinnati Reds

68. Washington Nationals

Competitive Balance Round B

69. San Diego Padres

70. Colorado Rockies

71. Oakland A's

72. Milwaukee Brewers

73. Miami Marlins (from the Tigers)

The Cubs have a bonus pool of $10,556,500 to spend on their 10 picks in the first 10 rounds (or $11,084,325 when you consider the additional 5% overage without forfeiting a future draft pick).

Pick # 2 $6,708,400

Pick # 41 $1,361,900

Pick # 75 $736,200

Pick # 108 $477,300

Pick # 138 $357,400

Pick # 168 $267,600

Pick # 198 $200,400

Pick # 228 $159,400

Pick # 258 $148,900

Pick # 288 $139,000

Any team that exceed their bonus pools: a 75 percent tax on a 0-5 percent overage; the loss of a first-round pick and a 75 percent tax for more than 5 and up to 10 percent; the loss of first- and second-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and the loss of two-first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent. Here is a link to all teams’ bonus pools.

Here is a link to Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects. Here are their scouting reports for the 3 candidates for the Cubs first round pick (Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, Stanford RHP Mark Appel and San Diego 3B Kris Bryant):

Gray's metamorphosis from a live-armed but chubby high schooler to a potential No. 1 overall choice is reminiscent of Stephen Strasburg's. His stuff calls to mind Gerrit Cole, another top overall pick. Drafted in the 13th round out of an Oklahoma high school in 2010 by the Royals and in the 10th round out of Eastern Oklahoma State JC in 2011 by the Yankees, Gray steadily improved before exploding in his second season with the Sooners. After maxing out at 94 mph in high school, he now works comfortably at 94-97 and can hit 100 mph while looking like he's just playing catch. Gray's fastball also features heavy life. He shows the ability to dial it down to 92-94 in the middle innings before turning it back up toward the end of games, a la Justin Verlander. He has refined his slider into a wipeout pitch with depth and bite, and he can make hitters look silly with an improved changeup that bottoms out at the plate. Gray has firmed up his frame to a solid 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds, and he has his delivery and his pitches more under control than ever. He has maintained a high level of performance all spring, carrying an 8-1, 1.20 record with a 104-16 K-BB ratio and a .166 opponent average through his first 12 starts. If the Astros pass on Gray with the No. 1 selection, it will be an upset if he gets past the Cubs at No. 2.

Appel picked up where he left off last year, after he turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates as the eighth overall pick. As a senior, he fine-tuned his stuff and graduated with a degree in management science and engineering. He shows everything scouts look for in a frontline pitcher. He's 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds with a clean delivery, and he is a solid athlete who played basketball in high school. Appel's fastball sits in the mid-90s and gets as high as 98 mph, and he holds his velocity deep into games. His slider is a plus pitch that generates swings and misses with its sharp, late break. Under Stanford pitching coach Rusty Filter--who was Stephen Strasburg's pitching coach at San Diego State--Appel has gotten a little more downhill with his fastball and has improved his changeup as a senior, and it should be at least an average third offering. Appel has improved every year at Stanford and dominated as a senior, and he should move quickly through the minor leagues.

Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball's premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant's best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he'll be better than that. Bryant's arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he'll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.

Here is a link to Perfect Game's top 250 prospects.

And here is a link to Kiley McDaniel’s top 111 prospects.

Jim Callis' final mock draft has the Cubs picking Mark Appel:

2. CHICAGO CUBS: Chicago’s final four consists of the top four college prospects, with the pitchers ahead of the hitters. I’m told Gray’s positive test isn’t an issue with the Cubs either, and some of their decision-makers may prefer him to Appel.

PROJECTED PICK: Mark Appel.

(Mock Draft 1.0: Jonathan Gray/2.0: Mark Appel/3.0: Appel)[/

On the other hand, Keith Law’s final mock draft has the Cubs picking Jonathan Gray:

2 Jonathan Gray

 

POS: RHP HT: 6-4 WT: 239 School: Oklahoma

 

Analysis: Appel or Gray here, with money probably a major variable as the Cubs seem to view the two guys as very close. They may not have a choice if the Astros take one of the two, in which case Chicago will take the other.

Jonathan Mayo’s final mock draft has the Cubs selecting Mark Appel:

2. Cubs: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

They're contemplating Kris Bryant, but there's no reason to switch this pick.

Kiley McDaniel’s final mock draft also has the Cubs nabbing Appel:

ANALYSIS: Part of the reason I think that's true is the rumor I've written for the past month--that the Cubs like Appel enough over Gray to try to offer him slot or even more to tempt him to play coy with Houston to slide to #2--has been making the rounds lately. I think Appel ends up here and, as outlined in the chart above, Moran or Gray at #1 affects the order of the next few picks.

2013 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $10,556,500

2013 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $11,084,325

2013 Bonus Pool Spending: $10,793,500

2013 Bonus Pool +/-: $236,900 Over Budget

2013 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $290,925 Under Budget (the first $100,000 in a bonus for players selected after round 10 doesn't count against the pool)

Cubs Picks (signings in bold/scouting reports free from MLB.com):

1.2 (Pool Amount: $6,708,400) - Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego - BA rank: 3 - bonus: $6,708,400 million

Teams looking for the best power college bat in the class may not have to look further than San Diego. Bryant has been an excellent performer in a weak college conference, but he also led Team USA this summer in slugging percentage. He has easy plus power, maybe more, with the ability to hit the ball out to all fields. He also has a plus arm, and while some feel he'll have to move to first in the future, others feel he has the actions, arm and power bat to profile well at the hot corner. He's also shown the ability to play a corner outfield spot during his junior season. There is a good amount of swing and miss to his game, but the team that feels he'll hit enough will likely take his power bat off the board fairly early in the Draft.

2.41 (Pool Amount: $1,361,900) - Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Missouri - BA rank: 76 - bonus: $1.1 million

The latest in a long line of talented Missouri pitchers, Zastryzny has a good feel for the craft of pitching. His fastball typically sits in the upper-80s, but Zastryzny has the ability to add and subtract velocity as necessary. His fastball velocity typically ranges from 86 mph to 94 mph. Zastryzny, a left-hander, uses his height – he's listed at 6-foot-3 – to create a downhill angle for his fastball, which has late action. Zastryzny also throws a changeup and slider. He commands his whole arsenal well and all three of his pitches have the chance to be at least Major League-average offerings.

3.75 (Pool Amount: $736,200) - Jacob Hannemann, OF, BYU - freshman - BA rank: 214 - bonus: $1 million

Hannemann is only a freshman, but don't let that fool you. The two-sport standout went on his Mormon mission before heading to college, making him 22 years old. Also a football player, Hannemann has some athletic tools to work with, even if they are a bit raw. The WCC Freshman of the Year hit well in his first taste of college ball, impressive considering he hadn't played in two years. He has the chance to hit and run well and could be a solid center field prospect for a team willing to be patient.

4.108 (Pool Amount: $477,300) - Tyler Skulina, RHP, Kent State - BA rank: 73 - bonus: $800,000

Skulina played a key role in Kent State’s Cinderella run to the 2012 College World Series and has taken on an even bigger role this spring as the Golden Flashes ace. He relies on his fastball-curveball combination to attack hitters and isn’t afraid to challenge them. Skulina’s fastball sits in the low-90s and runs in on right-handers. His curveball has good break and should be a Major League average offering. He uses his 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame to create a good downhill plane for both pitches. Skulina needs to develop his changeup to reach his potential.

5.138 (Pool Amount: $357,400) - Trey Masek, RHP, Texas Tech - BA rank: 49 - bonus: $357,400

Masek had a very strong summer in the Cape Cod League and it was carrying over as Texas Tech's Saturday starter, though some arm soreness in late March kept him out of action for a spell. Assuming health, the slightly undersized right-hander will show three pretty good pitches. He can run his fastball up to 94 mph, throws a solid curveball and has a good feel for a sinking changeup. His funky delivery adds deception to his stuff, though his command can be inconsistent. He gets high marks for his aggressiveness and poise on the mound. That, plus Masek's size and injury history, have some thinking his future might be in a big league bullpen.

6.168 (Pool Amount: $267,600) - Scott Frazier, RHP, Pepperdine - BA rank: 160 - bonus: $267,600

The big right-hander served as Pepperdine's Saturday starter in 2012, then moved into the Friday slot as a junior, continuing to show the big arm that has always intrigued scouts. His fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range, and he backs it up with a curve and changeup. He's shown gradual improvement over time with the Waves and while his results as a junior have been up and down, he's the kind of college arm that could sneak into the back end of the first round. After his sophomore season, Frazier pitched in the Cape Cod League to cap off 2012. Even with his uneven performances, his size and arm strength were still getting a lot of interest as the Draft approached.

7.198 (Pool Amount: $200,400) - David Garner, RHP, Michigan State - BA rank: 248 - bonus: $175,000

At 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, David Garner's size doesn't intimidate hitters. However, his slight frame is not an indication of the power the right-hander possesses. Garner owns a fastball that can touch 95 mph, while his hard-breaking slider is his primary out-pitch. He has a free delivery and aggressive approach, and his electric stuff has led to 192 strikeouts in 217 2/3 innings pitched for Michigan State during his three years in East Lansing. At times, Garner can lose his control, as he walked 27 batters this year, while also hitting six and throwing 10 wild pitches. In his first two seasons at Michigan State, Garner was in and out of the rotation, but he made all 14 appearances as a starter during his junior year. He went 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA, lifting his career numbers to 15-12 and 3.97, respectively. Garner stood out in the Cape Cod League each of the past two summers, especially in 2012, when he was named to the West Division All-Star Team. In 43 1/3 innings for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks, Garner registered 41 strikeouts and a 3.12 ERA, both of which were good for top 20 in the league. Before becoming a Spartan, Garner was drafted by the Reds in the 33rd round (No. 997 overall) of the 2010 Draft.

8.228 (Pool Amount: $159,400) - Sam Wilson, LHP, Lamar (CO) CC - BA rank: 358 - bonus: $130,000

Wilson was drafted by the Rangers in the 20th round in 2010, but he chose to attend New Mexico. He was a two-way player as a freshman, but academic issues forced him to redshirt last season and he ultimately transferred to Lamar Community College this year. Wilson has continued as a two-way player for the Runnin’ Lopes, but his professional future is on the mound. He throws his fastball around 90 mph and he has touched 94 mph in the past. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which have the potential to be Major League-average offerings. Wilson is athletic, has good size (he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and repeats his delivery well.

9.258 (Pool Amount: $148,900) - Charcer Burks, OF, Travis HS (Richmond, TX) - Florida commit - bonus: $170,000

10.288 (Pool Amount: $139,000) - Zack Godley, RHP, Tennessee - Senior - BA rank: 487 - bonus: $35,000

11.318 - Jordan Hankins, C, Austin Peay State (TN)

12.348 - Trevor Clifton, RHP, Heritage HS (TN) - Kentucky commit - BA rank: 148 - bonus: $375,000

Clifton, a projectable right-hander out of Heritage H.S. (Tenn.), has increased his Draft stock this spring, thanks in part to an uptick in the velocity of his fastball. It has been in the low-90s this spring and touched as high as 97 mph. Clifton is listed at 6-foot-4, 170 pounds and has room to add the strength necessary to sustain his newfound velocity gains. Clifton also throws a curveball and changeup. While his arm action is clean, Clifton's delivery still needs to be cleaned up. He has a good feel for pitching and has performed well under pressure this spring. Clifton is committed to Kentucky.

13.378 - Trevor Graham, RHP, Franklin Pierce University (NH)

Graham is a right-hander with a strong, durable pitcher's build. He's a junior at Franklin Pierce University after transferring this fall from Florida Tech. Graham's fastball velocity fluxuates but scouts believe he has a future average fastball and just a lightly-used curve. He has a strong changeup that sinks down on the third-base corner against lefties and cuts away vs. righties. His current stuff indicates he's most likely to be a reliever in pro ball, and his hard-nosed mentality makes him attractive to teams.

14.408 - Daniel Poncedeleon, RHP, Houston - BA rank: 322

This righty has plenty of raw arm strength that helps his fastball stay in the 90-93 mph range, though he loses some of the zip on his heater when he's in the set position. He throws a four-seamer that runs downhill and a two-seamer that has some run and occasional sink. His curve has 12-6 break, and scouts consider him a thrower with fair pitchability. He projects to develop well physically, and has flashy stuff but it can be inconsistent at times. His arm action and delivery mechanics may make him better suited for the bullpen at the next level.

15.438 - Michael Wagner, RHP, San Diego - BA rank: 192

Wagner was San Diego's closer for most of his sophomore year, but while he moved into the rotation in 2013 and served as the Toreros' ace, some see his future back in the bullpen as a setup type. He does have a three-pitch mix from a good pitching frame. His sinking fastball will generate ground-ball outs and his changeup is a legitimate weapon. His breaking ball isn't as good, but has the chance to be a Major League average offering in the future. His pitchability allows his stuff to play up, as does his outstanding mound presence. Wagner's size and overall package of stuff may allow him to start his pro career in a rotation, with the team taking him knowing that a life as a reliever is a pretty good fall-back option.

16.468 - Cael Brockmeyer, C, Cal State Bakersfield - BA rank: 393

17.498 - Kelvin Freeman, 1B, North Carolina A&T State - Senior

18.528 - Giuseppe Papaccio, SS, Seton Hall - Senior

19.558 - Will Remillard, C, Coastal Carolina - $150,000 bonus

20.588 - Zak Blair, 2B, Mercyhurst College (PA) - Senior

21.618 - Josh McCauley, RHP, Shepherd College (WV) - Senior

22.648 - Kevin Brown, OF, Bryant (RI) - Senior

23.678 -Tyler Ihrig, LHP, Marin CC (CA)

24.708 - Tyler Alamo, C, Cypress HS (Anaheim, CA) - Cal State Fullerton commit - BA rank: 348 - $100,000 bonus

Alamo is a physical high school catcher who has room on his 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame to get even stronger. He already generates good bat speed and has the potential to develop plus power. To unlock his power potential, however, Alamo will have to improve his approach and pitch-recognition skills. Defensively, Alamo has good tools, but is still is a work in progress as he learns to use his big body behind the plate. He has an above-average arm and good hands. Alamo is committed to Cal State Fullerton.

25.738 - Marcus Doi, OF, Mid-Pacific Institute (Honolulu, HI) - Hawaii commit - BA rank: 388

26.768 - Carlos Peña, C, Southwest Miami HS (Miami, FL)

27.798 - Tyler Sciacca, 2B, Villanova - Senior

28.828 - Brad Renner, RHP, Florida State

29.858 - John Garcia, OF, Denbigh HS (Newport News, VA)

30.888 - Zak Hermans, RHP, Princeton - Senior

31.918 - Sean Johnson, RHP, Iowa Western CC (IA)

32.948 - Keaton Leach, RHP, Glendale CC (CA) - Fresno State commit

33.978 - Chris Madera, OF, Northwest Florida State (FL)

34.1008 - Jake Thompson, RHP, Siuslaw HS (Florence, OR) - Oregon State commit

35.1038 - Ramsey Romano, SS, Valhalla HS (El Cajon, CA) - Michigan commit

36.1068 - Derek Campbell, SS, Cal

37.1098 - Jeremy Martinez, C, Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, CA) - Southern Cal commit - BA rank: 226

People who watch Martinez hit might do a little bit of a double-take. The Southern California high school standout purposefully has patterned his approach, setup and swing after Albert Pujols. A veteran of Team USA, Martinez has shown an ability to catch some of the better prep arms in the country, grading out with solid catch and throw skills. He has an idea at the plate with some good power from the right side to go along with it. And though there's not much projection and he'll have to watch his conditioning, he should have enough to be an everyday backstop at the next level. In addition to his USA Baseball work in summers past, he has led his Mater Dei team to two straight National High School Invitational championships. That tournament is also held at USA Baseball's complex, making Cary, North Carolina Martinez' home away from home.

38.1128 - Zack Brown, RHP, Seymour HS (Seymour, IN) - Kentucky commit - BA rank: 385

39.1158 - Josh Greene, OF, Forest HS (Ocala, FL) - High Point commit

40.1188 - Patrick Riley, OF, Delgado College (LA) - North Carolina State commit

Last year, I wanted Buxton way above and beyond anyone else in the draft. This year, any of the top three are fine with me. Heck, if mgmt thinks one of the other top guys are deserving, I'll buy into it.

I'm more intrigued with what happens afterwards.

Question for the crew.

 

Most the board seems to be Appel or Gray as their pick.

 

But, if you were going to take Bryant over either who would you be tempted the most to NOT pick and replace with Bryant.. Appel or Gray?

 

 

Gray, easily.

 

Bryant wouldn't disappoint me at all. Pitchers are scary. I hate drafting pitchers in the first round. I mean maybe you have to in a year like this, but it's followed by three years of worrying every start might end up with him holding his forearm and making a face.

Those Bryant Cape Cod stats scared the hell out of me.

Who else is watching MLB network?

Harold is going full meatball.

@keithlaw: Hearing it's Appel to Houston.

Bryant had 31 hr this year? Good god

It was in the weak WCC.

i think my final 3 is

appel

bryant

gray