2017 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun May 14, 2017 9:56 am

Also, M. Vientos and H. Ramos have higher upsides. Like much higher upsides. Ramos has great tools and a good chance at sticking in CF. M. Vientos has been talked up and followed by scouts for years. His stock is down, but he still has good tools and should develop into a quality third-baseman. Both of them have higher upsides than N. Allen. I guess maybe Allen has the higher floor though -- the scouting reports say he'll definitely stick at SS.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun May 14, 2017 6:33 pm

Regular Show wrote:Also, M. Vientos and H. Ramos have higher upsides. Like much higher upsides. Ramos has great tools and a good chance at sticking in CF. M. Vientos has been talked up and followed by scouts for years. His stock is down, but he still has good tools and should develop into a quality third-baseman. Both of them have higher upsides than N. Allen. I guess maybe Allen has the higher floor though -- the scouting reports say he'll definitely stick at SS.


The second bold sentence puts the first one into question. That Allen blows them both out of the water defensively, at SS to boot, gives him a huge leg up. From there it's just a matter of whether you're high on the bat or not. If he can put the ball into the air consistently already vs the normal groundball heavy profile of these speed/defense guys he could conceivably be one of the highest ceiling players in the draft. I'd imagine in the Cubs' system he would see time at SS, 2B, CF, and LF.

Ramos and Vientos seem liked they'd have more swing and miss in their game. I was very high on Vientos early, but it does seem like he is having a terrible year. I would rather not draft a HS position player struggling their senior year unless he was an outright top of the draft guy, Vientos is not that.

Jake Eder's interesting. 6'4" HS LHP with possibly premium fastball command. Vanderbilt recruit
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun May 14, 2017 10:01 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Regular Show wrote:Also, M. Vientos and H. Ramos have higher upsides. Like much higher upsides. Ramos has great tools and a good chance at sticking in CF. M. Vientos has been talked up and followed by scouts for years. His stock is down, but he still has good tools and should develop into a quality third-baseman. Both of them have higher upsides than N. Allen. I guess maybe Allen has the higher floor though -- the scouting reports say he'll definitely stick at SS.


The second bold sentence puts the first one into question. That Allen blows them both out of the water defensively, at SS to boot, gives him a huge leg up. From there it's just a matter of whether you're high on the bat or not. If he can put the ball into the air consistently already vs the normal groundball heavy profile of these speed/defense guys he could conceivably be one of the highest ceiling players in the draft. I'd imagine in the Cubs' system he would see time at SS, 2B, CF, and LF.

Ramos and Vientos seem liked they'd have more swing and miss in their game. I was very high on Vientos early, but it does seem like he is having a terrible year. I would rather not draft a HS position player struggling their senior year unless he was an outright top of the draft guy, Vientos is not that.

Jake Eder's interesting. 6'4" HS LHP with possibly premium fastball command. Vanderbilt recruit


Well, upsides and ceilings (for the most part) have to do with how well you think their bats develop. It's pretty rare that a player has a high upside due to incredible defense at a premium position like C, SS or CF if the bat is sub-par or average (A. Simmons). I guess maybe N. Allen could conceivably have a higher ceiling than Vientos and Ramos if scouts really are sold on him being a perennial GG-contender/above-average defender at SS.

If we're talking about theoretical ceilings/upsides and best outcomes for just these three players I think most scouts would list it H. Ramos, M. Vientos and then N. Allen. If we're talking about chances of actually reaching their respective floors then I think you would list it as N. Allen, H. Ramos and then M. Vientos. This is just my opinion (I could be wrong). We'll see how this all shakes out once we get closer to the draft.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon May 15, 2017 1:05 am

Heliot Ramos' profile does not match the type of profile this regime normally picks in the first round. In fact, the first player I thought of when reading his scouting report was Javy Baez coming out of high school and Jed Hoyer wasn't interested in Baez when he was with the Padres.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon May 15, 2017 4:37 am

Regular Show wrote:
Castro's Spray Chart wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Thanks for sharing. I guess I'm coming around on Nick Allen. It still feels underwhelming if we did decide to select him with one of our top two picks. I mean how many true impact players are there at that size or shorter? J. Altuve and D. Pedroia...I'm sure there are many others, but it's not a deep list. This whole draft class feels underwhelming so maybe he is worthy of being taken that high I guess. I'd rather go after H. Ramos or M. Vientos, if those two are still available at pick #27.


This is so so weird...you get that, right?


Why? J. Altuve is 5'6" and Pedroia is 5'8" I believe. Great players, especially for how short they are. I mention those two players because the vast majority of position players at that height (or shorter) do not make it to the big leagues or fail to develop into impact players. It's just really hard to hit for power when you're that size. I seriously doubt N. Allen is the next Altuve or Pedroia...


I know you capped it at Allen's 5'8" but Mookie Betts is listed at just an inch taller, very short for MLB standards and is an absolute star (and, like Pedroia, a Theo draft pick). Pedroia was drafted in the 2nd, Betts in the 5th round and we're talking Allen at 27 or 30, so the risk isn't as bad as a top 10 pick. And despite the height, there are distinct positives for Allen that make him a viable pick at 27/30.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Mon May 15, 2017 6:43 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Castro's Spray Chart wrote:
This is so so weird...you get that, right?


Why? J. Altuve is 5'6" and Pedroia is 5'8" I believe. Great players, especially for how short they are. I mention those two players because the vast majority of position players at that height (or shorter) do not make it to the big leagues or fail to develop into impact players. It's just really hard to hit for power when you're that size. I seriously doubt N. Allen is the next Altuve or Pedroia...


I know you capped it at Allen's 5'8" but Mookie Betts is listed at just an inch taller, very short for MLB standards and is an absolute star (and, like Pedroia, a Theo draft pick). Pedroia was drafted in the 2nd, Betts in the 5th round and we're talking Allen at 27 or 30, so the risk isn't as bad as a top 10 pick. And despite the height, there are distinct positives for Allen that make him a viable pick at 27/30.


Is Mookie Betts really 5'9"? Wow, well I guess it doesn't matter if he's a couple inches taller or not. He is in the same ballpark in terms of height. The Red Sox took Betts in the 5th round though so they obviously liked him, but I don't know if they liked him enough to take him with a top-30 draft pick. I'm fine with taking him in the second round or later, but he probably won't make it that far. I trust this scouting department (for the most part) and if they really like N. Allen and decide to take him at #27 or #30 then I'll come around.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby UK » Mon May 15, 2017 4:38 pm

I just don't see any college arms in the 20-35 range minus Canning I like. Maybe if they draft Schmidt on the cheap at 30, let him recover from TJS and go from there.

With that said, I really like Ramos at 30 if he's there.

I also have a soft spot for Hans Crouse but there's a better chance of the Bulls drafting him in June than the Cubs.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue May 16, 2017 3:22 am

UK wrote:I just don't see any college arms in the 20-35 range minus Canning I like. Maybe if they draft Schmidt on the cheap at 30, let him recover from TJS and go from there.

With that said, I really like Ramos at 30 if he's there.

I also have a soft spot for Hans Crouse but there's a better chance of the Bulls drafting him in June than the Cubs.


Yeah, I don't see a lot of college arms in that 25-35 range that I like and want the Cubs to take. So many of the college pitchers have the statement "may end up being a setup guy or reliever" in their scouting reports. There are some pitchers I like in the Juco ranks like RHP N. Pearson. If he's available and the Cubs think he can improve his breaking ball (slider or curveball) enough to get big league hitters to chase/strike them out then I'm on board. He's got great size and a blazing fastball that can hit the mid-90s consistently. I really like LHP B. Little but he'll probably be taken before the Cubs get a chance to select him.

I want absolutely NOTHING to do with LHP S. Romero and wonder how far he'll fall. This Cubs regime really stresses high makeup and character so I doubt they'll even have him on their draft board. No way are we taking a chance on him with one of our top picks.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Tue May 16, 2017 3:27 am

Also, G. Canning will most likely be taken before the Cubs get a chance. Probably somewhere in the teens/mid-first round. Kinda sucks picking at the end of the first round, but hey, this is infinitely better than last year!
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Tue May 16, 2017 9:58 pm

Was curious, after seeing the talk of college pitching options not being great for 27 and 30. So, I looked at the past draft history of the FO, since they've been in Chicago.....

8 out of 25 picks have been High Schoolers, inside the first 5 rounds. In rounds 6-10, its just 2 of 25. Makes sense, with college senior signs and such. The 2 being Cease and Charcer Burks actually.

So, this doesn't tell us a ton. But, I'd bet we take one college guy, at least, between our top two picks.

Out of those 50 top 10 round picks, we've taken 37(!) pitchers and 13 position players.

But, of the 13 position players, they were a 1st, 7th, and 9th round pick in 2012. Almora, in the 1st, Stephen Bruno in the 7th, and Chadd Krist(senior sign) in the 9th. In 2013, its KB in the 1st, Hannemann in the 3rd, and Burks in the 9th. In 2014, it was Schwarber in the 1st and Zagunis in the 3rd. In 2015, it was Happ in the 1st, Dewees in the 2nd, DJ Wilson in the 4th, and Vismael Machlin(senior sign) in the 10th. In 2016, it was just Michael Cruz in the 7th.....

So, that does tell us that if we take position players at all inside the top 10 rounds, its going to be early obviously. Because those 13 breakdown to 4 1st rounders, a 2nd, 2 3rds, and a 4th. The other 5 being 2 7ths on regular college signees, ONE HS kid(Burks, not an over slot either) and 2 college seniors(Machlin and Krist)

I'm really starting to suspect a guy like Allen or Holmes at 27. Then, a guy like Canning, Schmidt, Houck, Pearson, Lange, Little, or Crowe, at 30. Then, popping a single HS pitcher at some point in rounds 2-5, along with 2 other pitchers, and a position player.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 17, 2017 10:57 am

So my dream scenario I just made up right now is one of Tanner Houck and one of Nick Allen/Calvin Mitchell/Quientin Holmes/Jeremiah Estrada. They have Rizzo, a potential icon for the franchise, but Alexander Toral probably belongs in that pool of HS talent too. It's hard for a HS 1B to hold first round status like he has, he's long been considered a if not outright the top HS bat and held up this spring, so that seems impressive.

The Houck in the late first stuff is weird unless this draft is loaded with bats. He's probably the most well rounded college SP prospect in this draft - healthy, productive, ML tools, ML frame, athletic and still projectable, consistent and consistently good, consistent against good competition, consistent under the pressures of being on the radar forever. Unless that dip in velocity is injury related he *should* in the first dozen or so picks, so please take and run if available at 27.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 17, 2017 10:24 pm

UK wrote:I just don't see any college arms in the 20-35 range minus Canning I like. Maybe if they draft Schmidt on the cheap at 30, let him recover from TJS and go from there.

With that said, I really like Ramos at 30 if he's there.

I also have a soft spot for Hans Crouse but there's a better chance of the Bulls drafting him in June than the Cubs.


I also like David Peterson amongst the college arms in the that range. But it sounds like both Canning and Peterson will be gone by 27, though.

Like Regular Show, I'm intrigued by the top two JC arms.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu May 18, 2017 6:01 am

I wonder if we should make a poll closer to the draft about who we want the Cubs to take at #27? I don't really know if there are enough posters on NSBB interested in the MLB draft these days? Especially since we don't have a high pick, and probably won't have one for a long time (fingers crossed).

I also am curious who do you guys trust the most when it comes to scouting reports for these amateur players/prospects? K. Law, J. Callis, E. Longenhagen, J. Sickels, etc...

I feel like Sickels gives the most generic information and doesn't stray from consensus. I like K. Law, but think he has some blind spots and biases (he hates Rice pitchers). I read all of them and the scouting reports on Baseball America (probably the best). I really miss K. McDaniel and his detailed notes...
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu May 18, 2017 6:18 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:So my dream scenario I just made up right now is one of Tanner Houck and one of Nick Allen/Calvin Mitchell/Quientin Holmes/Jeremiah Estrada. They have Rizzo, a potential icon for the franchise, but Alexander Toral probably belongs in that pool of HS talent too. It's hard for a HS 1B to hold first round status like he has, he's long been considered a if not outright the top HS bat and held up this spring, so that seems impressive.

The Houck in the late first stuff is weird unless this draft is loaded with bats. He's probably the most well rounded college SP prospect in this draft - healthy, productive, ML tools, ML frame, athletic and still projectable, consistent and consistently good, consistent against good competition, consistent under the pressures of being on the radar forever. Unless that dip in velocity is injury related he *should* in the first dozen or so picks, so please take and run if available at 27.


I like C. Mitchell too and I'm coming around on N. Allen. I think J. Estrada is going to UCLA. I really like A. Toral and I think his swing is maybe the best swing in the HS ranks I've seen on video. Well balanced, rotational and finishes with good loft. It's a pretty swing. Shame he can only play 1B. I think he is also going to college and will be a first-round pick (like J. Estrada) three years from now.

I think my favorite HS position players prospects (available where the Cubs pick) are M. Vientos, H. Ramos, C. Mitchell, N. Allen and A. Toral. Maybe throw R. Vilade and D. Waters in that mix too.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Thu May 18, 2017 4:03 pm

BA has us taking HS RHP Blayne Enlow and HS OF Quentin Holmes, mentioned us being connected to Allen too.



And RS, there's definitely less guys now that'll be much invested in the draft, but there's still going to be good conversation.
Last edited by davell on Thu May 18, 2017 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 18, 2017 4:20 pm

davell wrote:BA has us taking HS RHP Blayne Enloe and HS OF Quentin Holmes, mentioned us being connected to Allen too.



And RS, there's definitely less guys now that'll be much invested in the draft, but there's still going to be good conversation.


They also have top 10 talent prep OF Jordon Adell dropping all the way to 32 (bonus demands?) and Vandy OF Jeren Kendall down to 16 (contact issues). Clarke Schmidt went 19 and Kyle Wright was their newest 1st overall pick.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby davell » Thu May 18, 2017 5:33 pm

Adell's swing and miss, maybe? He's kind of boom or bust. But yeah, his bonus demands probably make more sense.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu May 18, 2017 7:23 pm

davell wrote:Adell's swing and miss, maybe? He's kind of boom or bust. But yeah, his bonus demands probably make more sense.


I read somewhere that a good comp for J. Adell is M. Upton. Great tools and amazing athlete w/ a lot of swing-and-miss. I hope J. Adell is more "B.J. Upton" than M. Upton lol
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 18, 2017 8:29 pm

2089 Mock: https://2080baseball.com/2017/05/mlb-dr ... 5-19-2017/

27. Keston Hiura, 2B/OF, Univ. of California – Irvine | 2080 Video

All Hiura does is hit and had he not been limited to DH duty this Spring I’ve little doubt he’d be off the board by now. The USA Baseball Collegiate National Team alum is slashing .402/.546/.669 through 49 games, walking 46 times versus just 33 strikeouts in 227 plate appearances with 41% of his hits going for extra bases. The Cubs have a stronger systemic need for pitching, but a player with Hiura’s offensive upside is too much to pass on here. —Nick J. Faleris


30. Heliot Ramos, OF, Alfonso Casta Martinez HS (Maunabo, PR) | 2080 Video

Ramos possesses arguably the most sought after combination in all of baseball: power and speed. The skills don’t stop there, however, as Ramos could grade out as average in the other three tools, as well. There are mixed reviews as to whether he will be able to make enough contact to tap into the power constantly, due to some swing path issues and a relatively raw approach, but the upside potential is big and the Cubs can afford to spend some developmental time with him. — Will Garofalo


Nick Allen goes 24 to Boston, Tanner Houck 26, Brendon Little 28.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu May 18, 2017 9:07 pm

College hitters who bash the bejeezus out of the ball always have my attention.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 18, 2017 10:10 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:College hitters who bash the bejeezus out of the ball always have my attention.


Yep. Hiura would be my dream come true.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 18, 2017 10:10 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:2089 Mock: https://2080baseball.com/2017/05/mlb-dr ... 5-19-2017/

27. Keston Hiura, 2B/OF, Univ. of California – Irvine | 2080 Video

All Hiura does is hit and had he not been limited to DH duty this Spring I’ve little doubt he’d be off the board by now. The USA Baseball Collegiate National Team alum is slashing .402/.546/.669 through 49 games, walking 46 times versus just 33 strikeouts in 227 plate appearances with 41% of his hits going for extra bases. The Cubs have a stronger systemic need for pitching, but a player with Hiura’s offensive upside is too much to pass on here. —Nick J. Faleris


30. Heliot Ramos, OF, Alfonso Casta Martinez HS (Maunabo, PR) | 2080 Video

Ramos possesses arguably the most sought after combination in all of baseball: power and speed. The skills don’t stop there, however, as Ramos could grade out as average in the other three tools, as well. There are mixed reviews as to whether he will be able to make enough contact to tap into the power constantly, due to some swing path issues and a relatively raw approach, but the upside potential is big and the Cubs can afford to spend some developmental time with him. — Will Garofalo


Nick Allen goes 24 to Boston, Tanner Houck 26, Brendon Little 28.


An aside but I have a growing pet peeve for these being used interchangeably as if they're the same thing. Maybe that is the big hole in all this upside/ceiling talk for players - tools get confused for skills. There are plenty of guys who can run, jump, throw, and/or have the strength or bat speed for significant power. The vast majority do not have the skills to really make it work.

Relatively speaking I really like Brendon Little. Not as a potential rotation anchor or anything, at least not obviously or outright, but a healthy power LH can find a niche on any staff.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby craig » Fri May 19, 2017 1:43 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:...An aside but I have a growing pet peeve for these ["tools" and "skills"] being used interchangeably as if they're the same thing. Maybe that is the big hole in all this upside/ceiling talk for players - tools get confused for skills. There are plenty of guys who can run, jump, throw, and/or have the strength or bat speed for significant power. The vast majority do not have the skills to really make it work...


:):) I agree Tom. Huge difference. Perhaps why Ryan Harvey and Bubba Starling aren't doing much.

Also think big difference between crude bulk "football-combine" type tools, and actual finesse baseball talents, as required to adjust and square up to, or lay off of, a fast-moving cutter or slider. Or to not only be able to throw fast and to spin, but to locate and command those pitches consistently. Bulk tools like velocity, power, and speed are easy to see. But the finesse tools required to hit and pitch with command, much harder to quantify.

Also, thanks very much you guys for your posts and opinions about the draft. I haven't had the capacity to keep track or have opinions myself. Drafting top 5 or top 10, not that hard to try to track 8 or 10 guys and read as much as possible. But kinda hard for me to evaluate guys in the late 20's. If a guy sounds really good, the better he sounds th eless likely he lasts. So anyway, reading you guys's thoughts has been helpful. Keep it up! :)
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 19, 2017 5:06 pm

Jonathan Mayo's mock draft: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/231085504 ... =151437456

27. Cubs: Nick Allen, SS, Parker HS (San Diego)

There could be a fun little cat-and-mouse game with the Cubs and Blue Jays, the teams with multiple picks at the end of the round. Both reportedly like Allen, so if the Jays don't take him at 22, the Cubs could strike here so Toronto doesn't get a second shot.


30. Cubs: Brendon Little, LHP, State College of Florida (Compensation pick for Dexter Fowler signing with the Cardinals)

Yes, they're known for drafting and developing hitters, but Little could get turned into a reliever, and his plus power stuff from the left side could help a big league bullpen out pretty quickly.


Hiura went 22, Pearson went 23, Danner 25, Carlson 26, Lutz 29, no Ramos or Holmes in the top 30.
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Re: 2017 Draft Thread

Postby UK » Fri May 19, 2017 7:08 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
UK wrote:I just don't see any college arms in the 20-35 range minus Canning I like. Maybe if they draft Schmidt on the cheap at 30, let him recover from TJS and go from there.

With that said, I really like Ramos at 30 if he's there.

I also have a soft spot for Hans Crouse but there's a better chance of the Bulls drafting him in June than the Cubs.


I also like David Peterson amongst the college arms in the that range. But it sounds like both Canning and Peterson will be gone by 27, though.

Like Regular Show, I'm intrigued by the top two JC arms.


Pearson and Little are intriguing, Little has one of the best curves in the draft, great FB/curve combo. Pearson touches 99, flashes +breaking ball.

Both are raw with no 3rd pitch and lack of command.

I don't know their philosophy as far as drafting collegiate players with control issues.
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