Starting Pitching candidates

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Starting Pitching candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 10, 2017 9:24 pm

This is our need, as of now. We may eventually add to the need of starting pitching, but this one probably isn't going away, even if Butler or Montgomery upgrade the Anderson spot. The rotation is just shaky this season. It may get better(probably will), but it seems like an inevitability, that we'll be adding this deadline.....

The true question is whether we add one, or two, guys to the mix? We won't be adding two elite guys, I'd feel comfy saying that. But, I could see us adding a multi year guy and a rental. Even if one of them is a swing guy, that just provides more depth.

Looking at the landscape, its far from settled, as to who is doing what, at the deadline. But, I'll list out the teams and their pieces that MAY wind up selling.....

Toronto

Pieces- JA Happ is a fairly decent pitcher and has 1-13 on his deal after this season. That's not horrible and he seems not to be a guy you'd blow your farm on obviously. Marco Estrada is a pure rental, he'd go before Happ. Again, solid addition depth-wise. Liriano is a rental too, he may be hard for them to move, at this point. Stroman? He's hurt. Plus, I legitimately see no reason for them to move him.

Tampa Bay

Pieces- Archer? Sorry, I don't see it. They're not even able to blow things up, with their attendance. So, they need to stick around in hell and hope for an outlier season. Odorizzi? He's got 2 years of arb left. My guess is they'd still want a TON for him. He'll be available, just not likely to be dealt. Cobb is a rental and WILL be dealt. Erasmo Ramirez is a dark horse, IMO. He's in arb and is a swing guy, I could see them moving on and he's not horrible.

White Sox

Pieces- Quintana is moving. To us? Highly doubtful, but I'm sure we'll be inquiring. He's got 3/29.35 left after this year. The price of acquisition would be uncomfortable, but he's the best guy moving at the deadline, that isn't a rental.....They're trying the flippy thing with Holland too.

Kansas City- What a sad group. Good thing they've got hitting to move. Jason Vargas has been excellent and will turn into a pumpkin soon. Ian Kennedy can opt out of 3/49. I don't see it, but I do see them trying to move him somehow.

Minnesota-

No idea if they'll sell. If they do, they've got Ervin Santana, with 1-13 left after this year. He'd be attractive to many teams. Phil Hughes has 2/26.8 left, I'm sure they'd love to move on from that.

Detroit

No clue if they sell either, but I lean no. They're developing a bit of decent young pitching and probably want Verlander there to help honestly. He'd have 3/78 on his deal, if he wants his option picked up. Zimmermann is sitting on 3/74 and they'd gladly eat your toe jam, to get you to take that off their books.

Angels

Another sad case of pitching. They may not sell. If they do, they've got swingman deluxe Jesse Chavez, who we've shown interest in, in the past. He's a rental. Nolasco is a rental too, but with a club option. Skaggs hits arb next year, I'd guess they'd prefer to keep him, or still be asking too much, at this point.

Oakland

Its all about Sonny Gray. If he's healthy, they'll move him. They've got 5 cost controlled guys behind him, some with decent upside. He fits us well, in that they need hitting.....

Seattle

Iwakuma has been bad. But, he's a rental, with an option. Glaardo is in the exact same boat. I fail to see them moving anyone else.

Texas

Darvish. If they sell, which looks likely.....He's the prize rental of the season. Martin Perez has 3 options at 22.5 total, I doubt he'd cost much. Not sure what they think of him at this stage.....

Atlanta

Teheran? He's got 3/31 left, he's not been good, and everything else they've got is a rental. So, my educated guess is he's staying put again. They've got Colon, Dickey, and Garcia all as rentals to try and flip. Teams have tried copycatting our approach, which is flattering and yet dumb. Because that market is way over saturated at this point.....

Miami

Volquez has 1-13 left. They COULD move him. They could also stand pat, with the team getting sold soon. Tom Koehler is a swing guy who's been awful, that we've shown interest in previously.

Philly

Hellickson gets moved this year. Feel confident in that. They've got youngsters everywhere else, maybe you could target excess from them and get a Jake Thompson cheap?(he's been awful too)

Cincy

Our man, Scott Feldman is back to be flipped again. Assuming they wind up selling, which isn't certain. Arroyo could be had too.

Milwaukee

Peralta has 2 years of arb left and is a DFA candidate. That's about it, for them.

Pittsburgh

They're not trading with us. But, I could see Garrit Cole being made available. He's got 2 years of arb left. Nova has 2/17 left on his deal after this year and is a bargain they've fixed.....

San Fran

TT posted a Brisbee article explaining why they won't be active. I kind of agree, but if Cueto is a goner and a sure thing to opt out of 4/84, I could SEE them moving him. Assuming they don't extend him obviously and make this a moo point. Matt Cain is a rental now, I'd think they'd be happy to move him at this stage.

San Diego

Flip city of pure poop. Cahill is the best they've got. We're probably a bit ticked we didn't keep him(if he'd have taken less than a guaranteed SP gig). Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin are also out there to be had. Jarred Cosart probably wouldn't be too hard to obtain as a pre arb swing guy.

Arizona

Greinke at 4/126.5? Doubtful. They'll probably stick in the low end of the playoff hunt too. Is Miller a guy they'd move now? He's going to miss part of next year and only has one year after that. Buy low chance? Corbin has a year left too, if they fall out of things....Slight chance of selling, my guess is they add actually....

I'll clean this up more later tonight. Wanted to list all the guys now.

The Rentals.....

Yu Darvish, Marco Estrada, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Jason Vargas, Trevor Cahill, Derek Holland, Scott Feldman, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yovani Gallardo, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, RA Dickey, Matt Cain, Clayton Richard

1 year of control guys

Ervin Santana 1-12, JA Happ 1-13, Edison Volquez 1-13

2 years of control

Jake Odorizzi(4.1), Garrit Cole(3.75), Sonny Gray(3.575), Ivan Nova 2-17

3+ years of control

Chris Archer 4-33.75
Julio Teheran 3-31
Carlos Quintana 3-29.5
Zack Greinke 4-126.5
Johnny Cueto 4-84, 5-106, or a rental
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 10, 2017 9:45 pm

Stroman pitched two days ago (6 shutout against a first division lineup) and averaged over 94 MPH on his fastball, two things that suggest he isn't injured.

I'm not a fan of how many really good pitchers are being written off for 2nd, 3rd, or lower tier arms at a point where they should be shooting for the highest quality the system can afford. I get that it's easiest to imagine them shooting nice and low, but it's nearly as easy to see them being *way* more bold given the significant need at this position this year and moving forward.

Pitching wants at the deadline:

SP, huge preference for someone capable of being a top 3 starter next year
Swing arm/multi-inning reliever
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 10, 2017 10:17 pm

Put rentals in a category at the bottom, 1 year guys, 2 year guys, and 3+ into separate categories. Although I think Quintana is the only 3+ year guy that moves.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed May 10, 2017 10:26 pm

I think it's important to take stock of the current rotation to help inform who they might try and acquire.

- Lester - A pair of bad April starts notwithstanding, he's been fine and his overall numbers are as expected
- Hendricks - got bombed his first 3 starts but has righted the ship and looks to be following a similar path as last year, no reason to expect he won't continue to be good going forward
- Lackey - yesterday was his second truly good start in 7 tries, but he's also averaging 6 IP/start. It's on the lower end of expectations, but he's not pitching poorly for the back end starter he is.
- Anderson - on the DL and hopefully sent to Belize when he's ready to return
- Montgomery/Butler - They're going to be given a chance to take Anderson's spot, personally I'd expect Lackeyish production there, maybe with better run prevention over shorter outings. You know, like we expected from Anderson.
- Arrieta - hasn't given up less than 3 runs since his first start, he's been quite bad. His track record gives him leash to work things out since the stuff doesn't appear to be diminished.

With that out of the way, I think you can focus on two potential outcomes:

1) Cubs target middle of the road starter - This happens if Montgomery/Butler don't live up to the Lackey standard, or Lackey starts getting truly torched
2) Cubs target top 3 starter - This happens if Arrieta continues to pitch poorly, with a possibility of it happening in the above two situations as well

The tricky thing for me is I expect Arrieta to bounce back but not pitch exceptionally, and I also don't expect Montgomery and Lackey to pitch poorly enough to lose a rotation spot, leaving them without a gaping hole to patch. You can always send Montgomery to the pen or Butler to AAA if you find a real good deal, but I'm also skeptical of the front office paying midseason prices for a Stroman/Archer type that would necessitate such a move either.


Among the actual targets, I'd love to see if Stroman was actually available, and if they could take on some contract(s) that would help with his asking price. I also wouldn't turn down Teheran or Odorizzi, although for the latter I'm not sure he's such an upgrade that I'd want to displace Montgomery/Butler if they were doing fine.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 10, 2017 10:52 pm

I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 10, 2017 10:55 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I think it's important to take stock of the current rotation to help inform who they might try and acquire.

- Lester - A pair of bad April starts notwithstanding, he's been fine and his overall numbers are as expected
- Hendricks - got bombed his first 3 starts but has righted the ship and looks to be following a similar path as last year, no reason to expect he won't continue to be good going forward
- Lackey - yesterday was his second truly good start in 7 tries, but he's also averaging 6 IP/start. It's on the lower end of expectations, but he's not pitching poorly for the back end starter he is.
- Anderson - on the DL and hopefully sent to Belize when he's ready to return
- Montgomery/Butler - They're going to be given a chance to take Anderson's spot, personally I'd expect Lackeyish production there, maybe with better run prevention over shorter outings. You know, like we expected from Anderson.
- Arrieta - hasn't given up less than 3 runs since his first start, he's been quite bad. His track record gives him leash to work things out since the stuff doesn't appear to be diminished.

With that out of the way, I think you can focus on two potential outcomes:

1) Cubs target middle of the road starter - This happens if Montgomery/Butler don't live up to the Lackey standard, or Lackey starts getting truly torched
2) Cubs target top 3 starter - This happens if Arrieta continues to pitch poorly, with a possibility of it happening in the above two situations as well

The tricky thing for me is I expect Arrieta to bounce back but not pitch exceptionally, and I also don't expect Montgomery and Lackey to pitch poorly enough to lose a rotation spot, leaving them without a gaping hole to patch. You can always send Montgomery to the pen or Butler to AAA if you find a real good deal, but I'm also skeptical of the front office paying midseason prices for a Stroman/Archer type that would necessitate such a move either.


Among the actual targets, I'd love to see if Stroman was actually available, and if they could take on some contract(s) that would help with his asking price. I also wouldn't turn down Teheran or Odorizzi, although for the latter I'm not sure he's such an upgrade that I'd want to displace Montgomery/Butler if they were doing fine.


I'm right in line with this down to the targets, though I outright don't care for Odorizzi. Decent pitcher but likely not *really* looking for decent right now. He's an extra lite version of Teheran when just getting the real thing won't cost much more (if anything) and offers a wider set of skills and abilities to go with a stronger overall pedigree and background.

I'm not a believer in Lackey holding up all the way through this year. Oldest, worst periphs of the top 4 SPs thanks to the HRs, longest injury history, most suurgeries....I'd like to set up a situation where they're getting amazing 5th starter production out of a group including Lackey/Montgomery/Butler/Mills in the second half rather than counting on Lackey and that group to fill up two rotation spots. It also just sets up a less frenzied offseason where they're significantly less reliant and desperate for FA priced SP.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed May 10, 2017 10:58 pm

davell wrote:I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.


Donaldson will be 33 when his FA deal starts, and Pillar is the only offensive player they have who 1) actually can be expected to play well and 2) is not post-prime and going to continue to get worse. On the pitching side they have Stroman, Sanchez, and little else, Osuna is a good end of pen guy and that's about it. They play in the AL East too, and they have a lot of money in guys who are uncertain to even be average going forward(Martin, Tulo, Happ, Morales). They may logically decide Stroman is part of the next good Jays team, but they're real close to the 'blow it up' point too, and cashing in pitching assets sure isn't a bad decision if they do.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 10, 2017 11:04 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.


Donaldson will be 33 when his FA deal starts, and Pillar is the only offensive player they have who 1) actually can be expected to play well and 2) is not post-prime and going to continue to get worse. On the pitching side they have Stroman, Sanchez, and little else, Osuna is a good end of pen guy and that's about it. They play in the AL East too, and they have a lot of money in guys who are uncertain to even be average going forward(Martin, Tulo, Happ, Morales). They may logically decide Stroman is part of the next good Jays team, but they're real close to the 'blow it up' point too, and cashing in pitching assets sure isn't a bad decision if they do.


I'm not arguing whether its the right thing to do or not. I'm just saying I don't think they'll pull up for a rebuild this early, when they'll have some semblance of hope for next year, barring injuries. If they wait a year, its not going to affect things that much, so I'd expect that route.

Especially since there's plenty of starting pitching options on the market that will alter Stromans value anyway.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 10, 2017 11:09 pm

davell wrote:I see no reason for Toronto to trade Stroman whatsoever. They've got close to 90 mill coming off their books. They'll give Donaldson 25 of that, and some other arb raises.....But, they'll have 50 mill to play with. If things go south NEXT year, then I can see Stroman available. For now, it'll be Estrada and maybe Happ.


Their lineup is old and not good, there's little to no help coming from the farm, he's a pitcher, he's a pitcher with a skillset that doesn't match their strengths when healthy (groundball guy in a turf stadium with oft injured infielders and Justin Smoak at 1B)...I don't see the difference between this year and next, particularly if they're supposed to spend $50-$90 million on free agents to try and dig themselves out of what is right now probably a manageable hole.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Wed May 10, 2017 11:20 pm

What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 10, 2017 11:21 pm

Here's the guys I EXPECT to get dealt....(not counting back end types)

75% chance or higher
Darvish, Quintana, Gray

50% chance
Cole, Cueto

25% chance
Teheran

10% chance or less
Archer, Stroman, Verlander, Greinke

Back end/middle of rotation types that have at least a full year of control moving forward....

50% chance or better
Happ, Santana

25% chance or less
Odorizzi
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 10, 2017 11:25 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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I didn't include him because they're expecting to compete soon. Hell, they went into the year expecting 75ish wins this year. With their new stadium, they're going to be aggressive quick. I do NOT think its going to work great, but I think they make a strong push this off season. They like Foltynewicz, I don't see them moving him. If they did, I guess they'd want a major league ready position player, ala Happ(off season type of move)
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 10, 2017 11:33 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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The thing with him is that he doesn't do anything well besides throw hard. He's young and cheap, but beyond that there's no appeal. Even his minor league career doesn't indicate significantly higher upside - he was more solid than spectacular at his best. Some might point to Arrieta as an example of terrible to awesome, but Arrieta at his worst in the minors was better than anything Foltynewicz did, was a significantly more accomplished amateur before that, and had way better breaking stuff.
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Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Wed May 10, 2017 11:34 pm

davell wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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I didn't include him because they're expecting to compete soon. Hell, they went into the year expecting 75ish wins this year. With their new stadium, they're going to be aggressive quick. I do NOT think its going to work great, but I think they make a strong push this off season. They like Foltynewicz, I don't see them moving him. If they did, I guess they'd want a major league ready position player, ala Happ(off season type of move)

I think you're probably right but they are getting a 250 wOBA from their 3B position, manned by 32 y/o Adonis Garcia. What about a Candy-led package? That would really solidify their future infield with Swanson and Albies.

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Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Thu May 11, 2017 12:14 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
davell wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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I didn't include him because they're expecting to compete soon. Hell, they went into the year expecting 75ish wins this year. With their new stadium, they're going to be aggressive quick. I do NOT think its going to work great, but I think they make a strong push this off season. They like Foltynewicz, I don't see them moving him. If they did, I guess they'd want a major league ready position player, ala Happ(off season type of move)

I think you're probably right but they are getting a 250 wOBA from their 3B position, manned by 32 y/o Adonis Garcia. What about a Candy-led package? That would really solidify their future infield with Swanson and Albies.

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Eh, I think they'd need Happ as a starter for him. They're a great fit for Candelario, but its probably more for Wisler, as we've discussed before on here before. At this stage, I'm not sure I'd even do that deal.

I would love to trade Candelario for a guy in AA or AAA though, just not sure its Wisler anymore.
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Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Thu May 11, 2017 12:24 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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The thing with him is that he doesn't do anything well besides throw hard. He's young and cheap, but beyond that there's no appeal. Even his minor league career doesn't indicate significantly higher upside - he was more solid than spectacular at his best. Some might point to Arrieta as an example of terrible to awesome, but Arrieta at his worst in the minors was better than anything Foltynewicz did, was a significantly more accomplished amateur before that, and had way better breaking stuff.


I feel like he's Odorizzi with more team control and we've shown significant interest in Odorizzi.

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Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 11, 2017 12:34 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about Foltynewicz? I realize he's underwhelmed but he's got a powerful arm, decent KBB, only 25, should have upside left but maybe he doesn't really fit the Atlanta rebuild timeline... they could conceivably move him. Any interest, and what would you guys expect the cost to be?

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The thing with him is that he doesn't do anything well besides throw hard. He's young and cheap, but beyond that there's no appeal. Even his minor league career doesn't indicate significantly higher upside - he was more solid than spectacular at his best. Some might point to Arrieta as an example of terrible to awesome, but Arrieta at his worst in the minors was better than anything Foltynewicz did, was a significantly more accomplished amateur before that, and had way better breaking stuff.


I feel like he's Odorizzi with more team control and we've shown significant interest in Odorizzi.

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That would be a huge step up for him. Unfortunately there's nothing to really indicate it's on the way. Odorizzi's got a deeper set of pitches, better command, better control, is a way better bet to stay healthy, has a more successful background, has at least logged the innings they're (likely) shopping for...
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 11, 2017 1:04 am

Seeing the success of post-hype former elite prospects like Taijuan Walker, Daniel Norris, and Eduardo Rodriguez (or the not traded Sanchez with the Jays) really makes me go back to guys like Jose Berrios, Robert Stephenson, Archie Bradley, Trevor Bauer, and Sean Manaea. Note the glaring lack of arm surgeries in that bunch despite taking on true starter workloads with great success over the years as prospects.

I do consider someone like Matt Wisler to be a lower tier version of that buy, but he's literally the only name I can think of in that tier unless there's maybe a Henry Owens believer out there.

Two pre-injured pitchers I have some affinity for are Skaggs and Clevinger, particularly Skaggs, but I value arm health too much right now to have a ton of interest in the Cubs buying these guys during this window. Skaggs might be the next Rich Hill one day, if he survives.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Thu May 11, 2017 1:06 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
The thing with him is that he doesn't do anything well besides throw hard. He's young and cheap, but beyond that there's no appeal. Even his minor league career doesn't indicate significantly higher upside - he was more solid than spectacular at his best. Some might point to Arrieta as an example of terrible to awesome, but Arrieta at his worst in the minors was better than anything Foltynewicz did, was a significantly more accomplished amateur before that, and had way better breaking stuff.


I feel like he's Odorizzi with more team control and we've shown significant interest in Odorizzi.

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That would be a huge step up for him. Unfortunately there's nothing to really indicate it's on the way. Odorizzi's got a deeper set of pitches, better command, better control, is a way better bet to stay healthy, has a more successful background, has at least logged the innings they're (likely) shopping for...


Both average about 5.5 innings per start, 20-22 K%, up to this year Odorizzi had been a 7-8 BB%, which is where MF is. MF gets about 5% more GB, and over his last 200 IP, JO has been more of a mid-4s FIP guy, which is what MF has been but his sample is only 250 IP. Purely by results he's pretty much as good as JO is, as JO is trending in the wrong direction.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 11, 2017 1:12 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
I feel like he's Odorizzi with more team control and we've shown significant interest in Odorizzi.

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That would be a huge step up for him. Unfortunately there's nothing to really indicate it's on the way. Odorizzi's got a deeper set of pitches, better command, better control, is a way better bet to stay healthy, has a more successful background, has at least logged the innings they're (likely) shopping for...


Both average about 5.5 innings per start, 20-22 K%, up to this year Odorizzi had been a 7-8 BB%, which is where MF is. MF gets about 5% more GB, and over his last 200 IP, JO has been more of a mid-4s FIP guy, which is what MF has been but his sample is only 250 IP. Purely by results he's pretty much as good as JO is, as JO is trending in the wrong direction.

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Yes but:

- Odorizzi has done it way more often at all levels of ball
- Does it against tougher competition at the ML level
- If JO is trending down already at 27, why would you want to spend precious resources on a guy with a watered down version of his skill set only two years younger? I mean if he were super cheap to pick up that would be a find, but the easy/safe assumption is that anyone and everyone will demand the Cubs pay a premium
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Thu May 11, 2017 1:39 am

I liked Odorizzi a lot more two years or so ago, than I do now. At this point, I think any upside he may have had is likely gone and he's the epitomy of a number 4 guy. There's nothing at all wrong with that, but Tampa likely values him way more than what should be given up for a guy like him. The low salary is about the best quality he has and that'll be gone next year, once he's making 7-8 mill. It'd be relatively easy to find his production thru FA for 10 mill a year or so and it won't cost you an Ian Happ type of prospect, to get that guy.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Thu May 11, 2017 2:12 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
That would be a huge step up for him. Unfortunately there's nothing to really indicate it's on the way. Odorizzi's got a deeper set of pitches, better command, better control, is a way better bet to stay healthy, has a more successful background, has at least logged the innings they're (likely) shopping for...


Both average about 5.5 innings per start, 20-22 K%, up to this year Odorizzi had been a 7-8 BB%, which is where MF is. MF gets about 5% more GB, and over his last 200 IP, JO has been more of a mid-4s FIP guy, which is what MF has been but his sample is only 250 IP. Purely by results he's pretty much as good as JO is, as JO is trending in the wrong direction.

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Yes but:

- Odorizzi has done it way more often at all levels of ball
- Does it against tougher competition at the ML level
- If JO is trending down already at 27, why would you want to spend precious resources on a guy with a watered down version of his skill set only two years younger? I mean if he were super cheap to pick up that would be a find, but the easy/safe assumption is that anyone and everyone will demand the Cubs pay a premium

Because there's still a lot of time to unearth that upside and I think realistically the best we are going to get will be a MORP type. I'd rather get a guy in that case that has many years of control. I really dont want to simply be in the rental market every season. If he brings down the HR rate he should be pretty decent.

Too bad Atlanta wouldn't consider Newcomb.

I really think Candy to Atlanta makes perfect sense.

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 11, 2017 2:17 am

You know how Foltynewicz makes for an interesting pickup? Second piece in a bigger Teheran trade to be a multi-inning power reliever. Taking on Kemp to add some pop to the bench and offer a platoon option for Schwarber (.662 OPS against LHP in 2017 with a 35% K rate and .138 IsoSLG, .548/41%/.129 career) could bring down the prospect cost enough to make it worthwhile.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 11, 2017 3:03 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Because there's still a lot of time to unearth that upside and I think realistically the best we are going to get will be a MORP type. I'd rather get a guy in that case that has many years of control. I really dont want to simply be in the rental market every season. If he brings down the HR rate he should be pretty decent.

Too bad Atlanta wouldn't consider Newcomb.

I really think Candy to Atlanta makes perfect sense.


I would disagree on this. The need is for someone at least capable of being above average immediately, preferably with room to get significantly better next year. Foltynewicz is a currently a bad starter and his ceiling is in the vicinity of a harder throwing Odorizzi who throws less innings in return for more velocity and a few more Ks. If the version of that pitcher who has actually taken on the SP workload for competitive teams is already an unappealing target at 27, what's the real window for a guy who needs to get better to be there and is only two years younger?

I like Candelario's fit in Atlanta as well, and Atlanta as a trade partner in general. I think there's a shot at plucking one of their interesting prospect arms on the back end of a bigger trade, but someone lesser heralded like Patrick Weigel or Kyle Muller.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Thu May 11, 2017 4:14 am

What do you guys think of Andrew Triggs? Dude is 28 and slipped through the cracks, he throws his breaking balls more than half of the time, and his periphs are (and were in milb, too) excellent, with great command of the strike zone. Barely any service time, 90 innings of 3.5 xFIP.

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Last edited by We Got The Whole 9 on Thu May 11, 2017 4:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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