Day by Day - Game by Game

For one we won't have terrible defense at third with Fontenot. We won't have terrible defense at 2B with Miles. We won't have terrible defense in RF with Hoffpauir. We won't have terrible defense at first with Hoffpauir. Not to mention like half of our lineup is hitting under 200.

 

As for our pitching. As poor as its been it could be worse. See: Philly.

 

1. Do you expect Carlos Zambrano to continue having an ERA above 4.50? You know with a .337 BABIP? After all his BABIP has never been above .280 in years. His ERA has never been above 4.00 much less 4.50.

 

2. Do you expect Rich Harden to continue having an ERA above 5.00? You know twice his ERA last year. Not to mention he is sporting a 37:14 K:BB and a K/9 of 13.5.

 

3. Do you expect Ryan Dempster to go from a ~3.00 ERA to a ~5.50 ERA overnight?

 

4. Do you expect Carlos Marmol's ERA to be 6 all season and Gregg's to be above 5 all season?

 

If you answered yes for any of questions 1-4, you're most likely going to be dead wrong. Right now almost out entire roster is bottoming out, and we're 10-11. That's pretty good all things considered.

 

That's very much to be determined.

 

Dempster's last ERA in the neighborhood of 5 was in 2003 with Cincinnati. His highest since then has been 4.80. He may not be great this year, but he's also unlikely to be at a 5.50 ERA.

 

Yeah, it's unlikely. I'm not predicting it's going to happen. But those other things are all far outside the norm. Dempster has been inconsistent throughout his career. He's also coming off a much higher workload than is typical. I have no idea how he's going to end.

I don't either, but his worst ERA in 6 years is pretty unlikely. If I had to guess, I'd put him in the mid-4s.

I love the fact that Kosuke Fukudome hasn't been stuffed in a bag and sent to purgatory. There's a lot of potential there and we should at the very least let him play it out. The reason for his struggling is no secret. He needs to learn to adapt to the style of pitching in the US which is completely different than the style in the US. A gauge on his transition will be how he hits pitchers who have decent sinking fastballs or sinkers. It's just not a pitch in Japan. People say that the book on him was four seamers on the outer half. Japanese pitchers aren't stupid. If there was a simple book on him they would have found it before he was the best hitter in Japan for five years. Every Japanese player eventually hit the level of production of their translated numbers. For Fukudome, that's .300/.400/.500. If he can even come close to that he will be one of the top five or so center fielders in baseball.

 

Personally, I would expect something around .300/.400/.470, and I think there's room for growth in all three stats. I wouldn't be shocked if he hit .325 one year. I wouldn't be shocked if he slugged .500 one year.

An .870 OPS this year would be terrific. I think his upside at some point is probably low .900s, but I don't know if he'll reach that this year.

An .870 OPS this year would be terrific. I think his upside at some point is probably low .900s, but I don't know if he'll reach that this year.

 

Thats not really going out on a limb ;)

 

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations1.gif

That would be fantastic.