Minor League Musings place holder.

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TomtheBombadil
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:27 am

If I could pick one aggressive assignment this year it would be Ademan to start in High A. The seeds have been planted for an elite prospect, he's held up his end so far, and I'm not even sure he has anything to gain by playing for South Bend.

-----

I've been the high guy on Alex Lange and think alot of why can be glimpsed here:



- Ideal pitching prospect's frame - lean but not skinny, long arms and legs, projectable
- Delivery is athletic with a strong front side, no head whack that suggests a strong core and legs, repeats everything well, doesn't seem to be any outright noticeable wasted movements
- He is strong but he can get stronger, could/should end up 6'3"/6'4" ~225 and I wouldn't be stunned if there's an uptick in velocity as a pro with it like a young hitter who grows into his frame and finds some power
- The first batter shown is in a 1 out, bases loaded, and one run situation. He gets strike one with the curve and then throws two unhittable ones
- Pitch 98 is 92, pitch 122 is 93 for a swinging strike
- He can do whatever he wants with that curveball (command)
- Fastball command needs work but that's what a PD program is here for. If he's a rear back and throw to a zone guy like Alzolay then I lean reliever or BOR starter, but I see the potential to spot
- I can't not note the intensity and ability to get results in high pressure situatuons there, he's got the head to be a big game or big moment guy

Before that big Oregon State game last year the only clip I could find of Lange was this:



and just look at how different the body and delivery are as a freshman. He leaned out and dropped some of that baby fat, picked up the tempo of his delivery a little without hurting himself or really his results so much. Earlier in the thread I posted or at least noted that just between his sophomore and draft seasons he boiled his delivery down a little more. This is a guy who has been doing that growing and developing anyone should want to see as he moves from teenager to his 20s, and all without hurting himself (though that's always possible).

Pitchers that come to mind for me are David Robertson, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Jake DeGrom with some meat on his bones...That's a pretty wide range of outcomes but not a bad place to be entering pro ball, basically means I think he can be an impactful pitcher if he survives.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:15 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:If I could pick one aggressive assignment this year it would be Ademan to start in High A. The seeds have been planted for an elite prospect, he's held up his end so far, and I'm not even sure he has anything to gain by playing for South Bend...


Thanks for thoughts/analysis on Lange.

On Ademan, he was a .647-OPS guy with a .267 OBP at South Bend last year. So if he's ready to rock at Myrtle, great; not for me to question the Cubs scouting eval and development analysis for him.

But, it's not like he's proven he can hit Midwest-League pitching yet.

Obviously those crummy South Bend numbers are easy to dismiss based on small-sample size. But that likewise reflects that he's got little sample beyond short-season.

So not sure it would hurt to play it conservative. If he's already too good for Midwest League, then you should be able to start him there, have him dominate, and promote him later. No harm done. Have good window of club control for Javy and Russell, so no urgency for Ademan to rush.

When you rush a guy, then it's harder to process *IF* he struggles. Anything bad can be excused on basis of "not that bad given how young and inexperienced he is....". Hopefully he'll do excellent, and there will be no need to make excuses.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:55 pm

craig wrote:On Ademan, he was a .647-OPS guy with a .267 OBP at South Bend last year. So if he's ready to rock at Myrtle, great; not for me to question the Cubs scouting eval and development analysis for him.

But, it's not like he's proven he can hit Midwest-League pitching yet.

Obviously those crummy South Bend numbers are easy to dismiss based on small-sample size. But that likewise reflects that he's got little sample beyond short-season.

So not sure it would hurt to play it conservative. If he's already too good for Midwest League, then you should be able to start him there, have him dominate, and promote him later. No harm done. Have good window of club control for Javy and Russell, so no urgency for Ademan to rush.

When you rush a guy, then it's harder to process *IF* he struggles. Anything bad can be excused on basis of "not that bad given how young and inexperienced he is....". Hopefully he'll do excellent, and there will be no need to make excuses.


Ademan showed the same general skills he showed in Eugene - contact, some speed, surprising power - in South Bend. Getting promoted to full season ball midseason at 18 as a SS and nearly doubling his season HR is impressive, then he finished 4/11 with a walk and a K in the playoffs.

I think the skills he has shown could transfer fine to the tougher assignment. He's got the glove to ground the game, makes alot of conact, has shown some power, shown some patience, and I'm not big on moving guys based on the big league club either, particularly since neither Baez or Russel have established themselves like Bryant and Rizzo have at the corners.

Also the SS and MIF options for the Pelicans suck and is a short list. Upshaw's fine but isn't a SS, Peguero is not good.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:46 pm

I agree, he's a good prospect and he might be fine at Myrtle. His development is the priority here. Baez, Russell at the majors, not relevant; Upshaw or Peguero, I don't care about their roster-fill careers, nor about Pelicans W-L record. What's good for Ademan shouldn't be distracted by any of that stuff.

Overall it probably doesn't matter at all. If he's good, he'll probably be good at either level. If he's not that good, he'll probably not be that good at either level. He'll learn stuff and improve at either level; he'll be plenty-challenged at either level and won't be bored at either level.

Some side-effect advantages of doing Myrtle:
1. *IF* he's able to put up good hitting numbers, it will look somewhat more exciting at the higher level.
2. I wonder if there isn't some team-building aspect? Both A-teams are likely to have terrible player-rosters. But at Myrtle, at least Galindo and Wilson give two guys who might become major-leaguers. Don't expect there are any major-league players at South Bend. Who knows, maybe Ademan, Galindo, Wilson, Lange, Thompson, Moreno, and Paulino can become great pals and move up the system and get used to winning together, all the way to Wrigley.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:31 pm

craig wrote:I agree, he's a good prospect and he might be fine at Myrtle. His development is the priority here. Baez, Russell at the majors, not relevant; Upshaw or Peguero, I don't care about their roster-fill careers, nor about Pelicans W-L record. What's good for Ademan shouldn't be distracted by any of that stuff.

Overall it probably doesn't matter at all. If he's good, he'll probably be good at either level. If he's not that good, he'll probably not be that good at either level. He'll learn stuff and improve at either level; he'll be plenty-challenged at either level and won't be bored at either level.

Some side-effect advantages of doing Myrtle:
1. *IF* he's able to put up good hitting numbers, it will look somewhat more exciting at the higher level.
2. I wonder if there isn't some team-building aspect? Both A-teams are likely to have terrible player-rosters. But at Myrtle, at least Galindo and Wilson give two guys who might become major-leaguers. Don't expect there are any major-league players at South Bend. Who knows, maybe Ademan, Galindo, Wilson, Lange, Thompson, Moreno, and Paulino can become great pals and move up the system and get used to winning together, all the way to Wrigley.


I think this is where we disagree. If he's in Low A for long it's probably not a good thing since he's already been there plus it further throws off the possibility of hitting an elite benchmark in playing AA ball at 20. I also just don't find that level of ball to be informative, much of the challenge is guys just getting used to the travel and the unenjoyable everyday grind of minor league life. It's good for guys like Paredes, Albertos, and Jimenez who maybe lost reps or had conditioning issues, org filler college guys who need to acclimate, but not the ideal spot for a player known for his polish while showing the tools and skills to be much more.

We have similar thoughts on him coming up with would be MLers. I was thinking it would be good to put he and Lange on the same roster as both are my top bets to actually make the Cubs in the next 3-4 years.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:45 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
craig wrote:... he'll be plenty-challenged at either level and won't be bored at either level.....


I think this is where we disagree. If he's in Low A for long it's probably not a good thing since he's already been there plus it further throws off the possibility of hitting an elite benchmark in playing AA ball at 20. I also just don't find that level of ball to be informative, much of the challenge is guys just getting used to the travel and the unenjoyable everyday grind of minor league life. .....


Yeah, I really don't get how a hitting prospect can ever get bored. Particularly one like Ademan, whose personal qualities and desire to be excellent are supposed to be strong. He hit .244 at South Bend, maybe he could hit .280 or .300 or something. How can you be bored with that, even if you're hitting .300, when you're making out 70% of the time? If you can hit .300, wouldn't you want to get better and hit .350; and if you could it .350, wouldn't you want to get better and hit .400? Even if you're K'ing 15% of the time, wouldn't a motivated guy want to cut that to 10%? Given the low success rates for even the best hitters, I just can't understand how an aspiring prospect hitter can ever be too bored to want to get better! And assuming you want to get better enough to prompt a promotion, I'd think the motivation to play hard and play well should remain strong.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:51 am

Welp, Cory Mazzoni is back. Dodgers tried to sneak him through waivers and the Cubs claimed him.

I wonder if he had even packed his bags yet. At least the trip from Sloan Park to the Dodgers spring training complex in Glendale is just 30 miles. Well, 60 miles round trip...
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:42 am

craig wrote:Yeah, I really don't get how a hitting prospect can ever get bored. Particularly one like Ademan, whose personal qualities and desire to be excellent are supposed to be strong. He hit .244 at South Bend, maybe he could hit .280 or .300 or something. How can you be bored with that, even if you're hitting .300, when you're making out 70% of the time? If you can hit .300, wouldn't you want to get better and hit .350; and if you could it .350, wouldn't you want to get better and hit .400? Even if you're K'ing 15% of the time, wouldn't a motivated guy want to cut that to 10%? Given the low success rates for even the best hitters, I just can't understand how an aspiring prospect hitter can ever be too bored to want to get better! And assuming you want to get better enough to prompt a promotion, I'd think the motivation to play hard and play well should remain strong.


I am not the one between us to mention bored. Boredom isn't a thing, and in the grand scheme his batting average in Low A ball at 18 isn't either.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:52 pm

CubsWin wrote:Welp, Cory Mazzoni is back. Dodgers tried to sneak him through waivers and the Cubs claimed him.

I wonder if he had even packed his bags yet. At least the trip from Sloan Park to the Dodgers spring training complex in Glendale is just 30 miles. Well, 60 miles round trip...


That Cubs waived him with zero 40-man pressure, but then reclaimed him again back onto the 40, is interesting. Apparently like him enough to use a vacant 40-man spot. But apparently not enough to have minded losing him, and apparently figured it would be nicer to keep as many back-of-40 spots free as possible. Certainly possible that at some point later, they'll want to call up Giminez, or Farrell, or Coghlan, or Anthony Bass, or somebody non-40. And perhaps they figured somebody might get waived, but as it turned out nobody better than Mazzoni did?

*IF* he pitches effectively, had he been on a non-roster deal, then if they needed those spots for Giminez/Coghlan/Farrell, for example, they wouldn't have needed to waive and expose him. But now, *IF* he was to pitch really well but need to get non-rostered, perhaps somebody would claim him?

I just find it interesting to see some of these small decisions that they make, presumably a super-small decision that will never ever make any difference or matter at all.

Still, you never know. Mazzoni was once a 2nd-round pick, and had a 48K/3BB split last year in a post-injury season. Probably fluke, but if not, or if 2nd-year-back-pitchers-pitch-better were to happen, you might possibly have an anti-awful fill-in candidate?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:03 pm



Pretty underwhelming stuff from Underwood.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:10 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/979774322205011968?s=21

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Underwood.


4/5 starter kit for Rucker though. I guess even if he's not in the rotation to start the year out, he'll reach his innings limit somehow......
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:19 pm

Rucker's breaking stuff hasn't always gotten very enthusiastic reviews. 55 on breaking ball and 50 on change seems relatively favorable, actually.

By the way, Az Phil speculated that Robinson might actually get bumped up to IOwa; would clear rotation spot for Rucker, and 5th spot at Iowa seems open. (Tseng, Mills, Underwood, Farrell. If Robinson does NOT move up, would #5 be Bass or Roth or Hedges or whom?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:31 pm

Morel and Guerra both got sent down to EXST. I'll take it as an absolute positive, that Morel made them take that hard of a look at him.....

Guerra is a bit disappointing though. With his pedigree, I expected full season ball for him.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:31 pm

davell wrote:Morel and Guerra both got sent down to EXST. I'll take it as an absolute positive, that Morel made them take that hard of a look at him.....

Guerra is a bit disappointing though. With his pedigree, I expected full season ball for him.


Did we get $$ on Guerra? $10K? $20K?

I think for a new guy in new country, going through full Mesa experience would seem to make sense, depending on what his life and language experience is. I think they have lots of English classes, plus of course lots of Cubs Way instruction and stuff. Much more teaching and practice, lots of fields, etc.. Once in full-season, lots of long bus rides gobble up time that can be spend on instruction in Arizona. I sometimes wonder how much instruction guys really get once they reach full-season?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:42 pm

craig wrote:
davell wrote:Morel and Guerra both got sent down to EXST. I'll take it as an absolute positive, that Morel made them take that hard of a look at him.....

Guerra is a bit disappointing though. With his pedigree, I expected full season ball for him.


Did we get $$ on Guerra? $10K? $20K?

I think for a new guy in new country, going through full Mesa experience would seem to make sense, depending on what his life and language experience is. I think they have lots of English classes, plus of course lots of Cubs Way instruction and stuff. Much more teaching and practice, lots of fields, etc.. Once in full-season, lots of long bus rides gobble up time that can be spend on instruction in Arizona. I sometimes wonder how much instruction guys really get once they reach full-season?


I'm pretty sure he got 250-300K. With some saying he was determined to sign this period, or he could have gotten more..... Your point about English classes may be valid, its obviously important.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:29 pm

davell wrote:
craig wrote:
davell wrote:Morel and Guerra both got sent down to EXST. I'll take it as an absolute positive, that Morel made them take that hard of a look at him.....

Guerra is a bit disappointing though. With his pedigree, I expected full season ball for him.


Did we get $$ on Guerra? $10K? $20K?

I think for a new guy in new country, going through full Mesa experience would seem to make sense, depending on what his life and language experience is. I think they have lots of English classes, plus of course lots of Cubs Way instruction and stuff. Much more teaching and practice, lots of fields, etc.. Once in full-season, lots of long bus rides gobble up time that can be spend on instruction in Arizona. I sometimes wonder how much instruction guys really get once they reach full-season?


I'm pretty sure he got 250-300K. With some saying he was determined to sign this period, or he could have gotten more..... Your point about English classes may be valid, its obviously important.

It was $300,000.

English classes makes sense. Easing him into a new culture and making him as comfortable as possible could be a reason. He's also around 275 pounds and needs to get in better shape. Perhaps working out at the complex under the watchful eyes of their training staff and dietician might be a reason as well.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:00 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/979774322205011968?s=21

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Underwood.


i'm kinda bummed we didn't start calling him duane underwhelm like 4 years ago
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:25 pm

Bobson Dugnutt wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/979774322205011968?s=21

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Underwood.


i'm kinda bummed we didn't start calling him duane underwhelm like 4 years ago


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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:10 am

https://www.thecubreporter.com/03302018 ... fitch-park

José Albertos threw 3.2 scoreless but surrendered 8 base runners. Keegan Thompson was very good for Myrtle Beach: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 3 K, 7/4 GO/AO, 73 pitches (50 strikes)
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Hrubes20 » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:52 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/979774322205011968?s=21

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Underwood.


If there were any other legit options at Iowa, he would be in the pen already.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:27 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/979774322205011968?s=21

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Underwood.


If there were any other legit options at Iowa, he would be in the pen already.

I've long thought that's where he'd wind up due to his inability to stay healthy and that his middling stuff might play up out of the pen. He's missed a lot of development time due to earlier injuries that even if he's destined for the pen, the Cubs may want him starting in AAA (or wherever) just to get him the reps. All in all, I don't expect much at this point. As always, happy to be proven wrong...
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:39 am

Jared Young continued his hot spring with his 4th homer: https://www.thecubreporter.com/03312018 ... ill-travel

IOWA PTCHERS:
1. Jen-Ho Tseng: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 2 GIDP, 7/4 GO/AO, 80 pitches (49 strikes)
TENNESSEE PITCHERS:
1. Jose Paulino: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 7/4 GO/AO, 79 pitches (50 strikes)
MYRTLE BEACH PTCHERS:
1. Ricky Tyler Thomas: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R (1 ER), 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 5/6 GO/AO, 84 pitches (48 strikers)
SOUTH BEND PITCHERS:
1. Javier Assad: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R (1 ER). 1 BB, 3 K, 5/7 GO/AO, 61 pitches (38 strikes)
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:54 pm

AzPhil seems to think Ademan will be the starting SS for Myrtle Beach:

Aramis Ademan has (apparently) made the Myrtle Beach Opening Day roster as the Pelicans starting shortstop at age 19 even though he has struggled a bit with the bat lately at Minor League Camp (he was moved to the #9 slot in the MB batting order this past week). It's his defense and make-up that got him to Myrtle Beach this early. The Cubs believe his bat will come along before too long as well.


This is exciting stuff. The seeds have been planted for a big leap up the prospct rankings by the end of the year as well as other big things. Keep in mind this guy did get $2 million as a 16 YO (probably offered younger) from this FO, so they were always really really high on him.

Raisin posted this a while back:



Here's the companion video:



Hot take: Best Shape of His Life guy, has never looked more projectable

--------

OTOH: Remember when I thought Ryan Kellogg was going to be a thing? Guy's servin' up home runs to teenagers in MiL ST....Booooo.

--------

So I'm at potential studs in Ademan and Lange....Their alterates in Amaya and Albertos...A (hopefully) hard throwing LH that might move fast in Little....My super duper longshot 3000s in Jose Gutierrez aaaaand lets go Faustino Carrera, both I'd just like to see set up full season ball next year...I really want to see what Serrano and Luis Verdugo, the 2017 IFAs from Mexico that got their own separate clippings...Lots and lots of 1st and 2nd stateside year IFAs....Short coming after Baez's Cubs gig now that he'll be in AA...Mekkes in AA...Estrada and a bunch of other 18-19 YO arms that haven't blown out yet like Correa, Vargas, and Bruzual...
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby weis21 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:59 pm

I’ll see Ademan next month when he visits eastern NC. I’ll give another one of my (horrible) scouting reports. Hoping to talk to a few scouts if I see any.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:49 am

https://www.thecubreporter.com/04012018 ... okies-dark

1. Duncan Robinson: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R (3 ER), 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, 1 WP, 4/2 GO/AO, 74 pitches (51 strikes)

2. Erich Uelmen: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 3 K, 1 GIDP, 7/3 GO/AO, 70 pitches (44 strikes)

4. Bryan Hudson: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 3 BB, 1 K, 1 GIDP, 6/5 GO/AO, 78 pitches (42 strikes)

David Bote hit a homer. Erick Leal and Manuel Rondon, both of whom were hurt, got in to games today.
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