Wait, why are you so convinced that last year is the "outlier" and not the year before?
I am not at all, I actually really like Garza, and definitely think he's closer to 5 wins than 1.6. I just don't know if he's more likely to be a 5 win pitcher or a 3 win pitcher this year though. My feeling is he's somewhere in the middle of those two, so around a 4 win pitcher and if he is then his value still COULD go down. I just feel like there is a lot of risk because I don't think it's very likely his value goes up any further. He could improve, I just don't like the chances and think there is a greater chance of regression.
I don't want to be seen as a Garza basher, because I am a huge fan of his. He's got great stuff and numbers to back it up. Highest average fast ball velocity in the NL last year, 7th in K/9, 5th in FIP, 8th in xFIP. The guy clearly pitched great last year and if we were contending I'd love to slot him in at or near the top of the rotation, but while we are trying to maximize our assets I'd like to trade him at his value's peak. He will net the biggest return of the guys who could be traded so I just hope Theo plays this hand right. He has been great so far so I will trust him, but it just makes me nervous.
If Garza pitches really well until the trade deadline, would we get more for him then than now? If we would, how much more?