BA Top 100

BeerHere · **Joined:** Fri Jun 13, 2003 8:42 am **Posts:** 4701

No big surprises at the top:
Harper
Moore
Trout
Darvish

Four Cubs:
Brett Jackson 32
Anthony Rizzo 47
Javier Baez 61
Matt Szczur 64

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html

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Rob · **Joined:** Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:33 am **Posts:** 11882

I don't have a BA subscription right now, but I see there's a link to an article talking about where unsigned players would rank. Anybody care to see where Soler would come in?

BeerHere · **Joined:** Fri Jun 13, 2003 8:42 am **Posts:** 4701

Rob wrote:

I don't have a BA subscription right now, but I see there's a link to an article talking about where unsigned players would rank. Anybody care to see where Soler would come in?

BA wrote:

Soler Vs. Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes would have made fine fodder for this column had he not agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract with the Athletics shortly before we went to press. After his signing, we inserted him at No. 14 on the Top 100 and fellow Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler became the prize of the international market.

Soler, who will play this season at age 20, is six years younger than Cespedes and thus has less of a track record. In terms of tools, righthanded power is the calling card for both. There are questions as to how much they'll hit for average, but they're both plus runners underway and have strong arms.

Soler will command a contract in the same neighborhood of Cespedes, though I'm leery of the fact that Cuban defectors' performance rarely lives up to the hype (latest example: Aroldis Chapman). I'll be conservative with Soler and rank him at No. 43, sandwiched between third basemen Nolan Arenado (Rockies) and Mike Olt (Rangers).

davell · **Joined:** Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm **Posts:** 9199

Rob wrote:

I don't have a BA subscription right now, but I see there's a link to an article talking about where unsigned players would rank. Anybody care to see where Soler would come in?

43.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · **Joined:** Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:51 pm **Posts:** 1542

It really seems like Baez is a standout talent. I compared him on draft day to a young Aramis Ramirez. I don't know what I expected, but he seems to be universally included on top 100 lists. That's good.

OTOH, I still don't get the Matt Szczur love. I think I've seen two instances where I got where the hype would come from, and both times he was taking BP. Even if he is worth it he's at least two years away...

I expect the Cubs will own this list sometime in the next 2-3 years. Pretty excited for the farm system over that time period and beyond.

Quakers · **Posted:** Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:59 pm

PriortoTheoIhadWood wrote:

It really seems like Baez is a standout talent. I compared him on draft day to a young Aramis Ramirez. I don't know what I expected, but he seems to be universally included on top 100 lists. That's good.

OTOH, I still don't get the Matt Szczur love. I think I've seen two instances where I got where the hype would come from, and both times he was taking BP. Even if he is worth it he's at least two years away...

I expect the Cubs will own this list sometime in the next 2-3 years. Pretty excited for the farm system over that time period and beyond.

I really hope the Cubs own it sometime in the next 2-3 years. Their mlb record should be low enough to guarantee high draft picks for awhile.

CaliforniaRaisin · **Posted:** Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:17 pm

FYI there was some discussion on this list on the last page of the BA & BP's Cubs Top Prospect Lists thread but this definitely warrants its own thread so if you want to quote something from the other thread, bring it in here.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · **Joined:** Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:51 pm **Posts:** 1542

Looking at the list I'm going "meh" by 35. Obviously there will be good players after that, but I still think the minors are lagging behind the mid-late 2000's.

Still can't believe the Pirates signed Josh Bell...I wasn't quite as high on him as I was on Heyward coming out of HS, but it's damn close.

The Logan · **Posted:** Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:38 pm

Some of these descriptions are pretty funny...

Quote:

26 Jarrod Parker rhp, Athletics Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
Could be the next great A's pitcher to be traded away in three years.

Quote:

51 Will Middlebrooks 3b, Red Sox Age: 23. ETA: 2013.
"Middle"brooks was No. 50 before Yoenis Cespedes signed. Pure coincidence.

Quote:

57 A.J. Cole rhp, Athletics Age: 20. ETA: 2014.
Projectable 6-foot-4, 190-pounder came over in trade with the Nationals and now will play the jeans salesman in "Moneyball II."

Quote:

60 Josh Bell of, Pirates Age: 19. ETA: 2014.
Still waiting for the addendum to his mom's letter to major league clubs that says, " . . . unless you offer us $5 million."

Quote:

99 Joe Benson of, Twins Age: 24. ETA: 2012.
Ready for his Target Field closeup . . . so he's probably headed to Rochester.

CaliforniaRaisin · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:55 pm

BA Top 100 Chat: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/pr ... 13016.html

Quote:

Scott (Chicago): When do you see Anthony Rizzo becoming the Cubs starting 1st baseman?

Jim Callis: By the end of the season.

Quote:

Jorge Soler (Chicago): Where would I have ranked if I signed last week?

Jim Callis: In my latest column (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/p ... 13011.html, BA subscription required), I said I'd put him at No. 43, between Nolan Arenado and Mike Olt. Not sure if the rest of the BA staff shares that view.

Quote:

Navin (Pasadena, CA): I know Jim Callis said he was being conservative but I was surprised to see Jorge Soler hypothetically rated in the 40s. If he signed with the Cubs, I was expecting Soler to be their top prospect and not rated about 10 spots behind Brett Jackson. Why do Cuban defectors rarely live up to the hype, as Jim Callis suggested?

John Manuel: Navin, I think we're just being realistic there. We had a report on Soler back in Nov. 2010 and remain excited about him. Honestly, I'm surprised Jim would rank him ahead of Javier Baez, who sounds similar and has a chance to stick in the infield. I'd rank Soler behind the (a) polished guy ready for the big leagues who is going to be a steady hitter and defender if not a star and (b) the infielder with similar offensive upside. To me, that's just realistic.

toonsterwu · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:10 am **Posts:** 3016

Hey, what was BA's original system rank for us again? 14?

dew · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 6:49 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:

Quote:

Navin (Pasadena, CA): I know Jim Callis said he was being conservative but I was surprised to see Jorge Soler hypothetically rated in the 40s. If he signed with the Cubs, I was expecting Soler to be their top prospect and not rated about 10 spots behind Brett Jackson. Why do Cuban defectors rarely live up to the hype, as Jim Callis suggested?

John Manuel: Navin, I think we're just being realistic there. We had a report on Soler back in Nov. 2010 and remain excited about him. Honestly, I'm surprised Jim would rank him ahead of Javier Baez, who sounds similar and has a chance to stick in the infield. I'd rank Soler behind the (a) polished guy ready for the big leagues who is going to be a steady hitter and defender if not a star and (b) the infielder with similar offensive upside. To me, that's just realistic.

I find it interesting that Manuel sees similar offensive upside between Soler and Baez. I was under the impression that Soler has better offensive upside than Baez. Not sure if that means I was overrating the expected production from Soler or underrating the potential production from Baez, though.

davell · **Joined:** Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm **Posts:** 9199

Baez is getting Sheffield comps, so you're probably underrating him.

toonsterwu · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:10 am **Posts:** 3016

Baez is viewed as having an elite offensive ceiling, with power and average. It certainly speaks to Soler's offensive ceiling that the thought is that his ceiling is as high, if not higher than Baez's, but Manuel's point was that if the ceilings are close, you take the infielder, and I agree with that.

PriortoTheoIhadWood · **Joined:** Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:51 pm **Posts:** 1542

Does the Sheffield comp for Baez go beyond bat speed + Florida? Like, are we talking that kind offensive bat? Gary Sheffield isn't exactly a comp I'd throw out lightly for any young player...Sheffield was a monster bat and one of the more exciting hitters to see play during his heyday.

Baez does sound like a possible monster though...There's been a strangely quiet confidence about that pick since it's been made. He went under the radar from my POV because during the pre-draft stuff most of the Cubs talk focused on one of the many talented college pitchers. I don't even think I would have paid attention to him if one respected writer didn't bring him up as an option, but I never really got a feel for him as a prospect before the draft.

His build kind of reminds me of Robinson Cano and secretly I've been hoping he'll end up a 2B rather than a 3B (the spot many say is most likely).

dew · **Posted:** Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:32 pm

davell wrote:

Baez is getting Sheffield comps, so you're probably underrating him.

Probably so. I was under the impression that comp was more on physical features/tools than on expected future production. I'm more than happy to adjust my expectations for him, though.

toonsterwu · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:10 am **Posts:** 3016

PriortoTheoIhadWood wrote:

Does the Sheffield comp for Baez go beyond bat speed + Florida? Like, are we talking that kind offensive bat? Gary Sheffield isn't exactly a comp I'd throw out lightly for any young player...Sheffield was a monster bat and one of the more exciting hitters to see play during his heyday.

Baez does sound like a possible monster though...There's been a strangely quiet confidence about that pick since it's been made. He went under the radar from my POV because during the pre-draft stuff most of the Cubs talk focused on one of the many talented college pitchers. I don't even think I would have paid attention to him if one respected writer didn't bring him up as an option, but I never really got a feel for him as a prospect before the draft.

His build kind of reminds me of Robinson Cano and secretly I've been hoping he'll end up a 2B rather than a 3B (the spot many say is most likely).

Speaking of Cano comps, I've always felt that Castro was a good comp for him, at a same stage, and relative to long term expectations.

My "ideal" 2nd-3rd infield situation, say, 4 years down the road, would be Castro at 2nd, Marco Hernandez at short, and Baez at 3rd. Ideally, that would be 3 guys fitting in the 1-5 spots of a lineup.

CubinNY · **Posted:** Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:18 pm

Who gave Baez a Shefield comparison? That seems a pretty tall order to me.

CaliforniaRaisin · **Posted:** Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:41 pm

CubinNY wrote:

Who gave Baez a Shefield comparison? That seems a pretty tall order to me.

John Manuel in the BA capsules for their top 100 prospects (linked in the first post of this thread):

Quote:

61 Javier Baez ss, Cubs Age: 19. ETA: 2014.
Bat speed, Florida high school shortstop background . . . let the Gary Sheffield comparisons begin.

ETA: I noticed the other capsules weren't posted in this thread. Here they are -

Quote:

32 Brett Jackson of, Cubs Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
Steadily moving up the charts (38th on last year's Top 100) like a Foo Fighters song.

Quote:

47 Anthony Rizzo 1b, Cubs Age: 22. ETA: 2012.
No prospect made as good a ballpark move as Rizzo's in going from Petco to Wrigley.

Quote:

64 Matt Szczur of, Cubs Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
Exciting high-risk, high-reward talent who should take off with football in his rearview mirror.

CubinNY · **Posted:** Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:17 pm

That's not a Sheffield comp. This is what I hate about minor league prognostication. At this point in time it's just pointless to compare Baez to one of the best pure hitters of a generation.

davell · **Joined:** Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm **Posts:** 9199

BA listed Javier Baez as one of their 5 guys that could make the biggest leap from now til next year at this time, that's currently in their top 100. They have 8 guys make top 150 lists, in order to compile their top 100. 3 Cubs made lists that didn't make their top 100. Welington Castillo made 2, with 148 being the highest he was ranked. Dillon Maples made 3, with 119 being the highest. And Trey McNutt made 6, with 108 being his highest.

toonsterwu · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:10 am **Posts:** 3016

If Baez comes through with a really strong performance, I think he'll be easy top 50 next year. The easiest guy to compare him to is Xander Boegaerts, a very similar player who was top 50 in most lists.

A long way to go until then, though, but those two have a ton of similarities.

CaliforniaRaisin · **Posted:** Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:22 pm

Keith Law and Jim Callis were special guests on Kevin Goldstein's podcast last week: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=16108

At 1:43:41 Keith Law defends Hak-Ju Lee at 12 (BA had him at 44 and Goldstein at 65)
Jim Callis talks of his higher ranking of Matt Szczur compared to Law and Goldstein at 1:53:20

The whole conversation is very interesting. It starts at 1:30:16 and lasts about 45 minutes.

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