Politics & Current Events

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:05 pm

Tim wrote:Just read an article on 538 this morning about that topic.

Maine is the only state where the D's have a credible chance where they don't currently have a strong candidate. None of the presidential candidates would qualify there. The only prez candidate that may be significantly hurting the D's senate chances is Bullock, but even he's a remote long shot in Montana.

I'd argue Beto/Cornyn.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Tim » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:10 pm

NOLA wrote:
Tim wrote:Just read an article on 538 this morning about that topic.

Maine is the only state where the D's have a credible chance where they don't currently have a strong candidate. None of the presidential candidates would qualify there. The only prez candidate that may be significantly hurting the D's senate chances is Bullock, but even he's a remote long shot in Montana.

I'd argue Beto/Cornyn.

They point out that the woman who has declared there may be just as good or better than Beto.

Also, Cornyn will benefit from being in a red state during a presidential election year, making the senate seat very hard to flip. While it is possible that Beto running for president hurts the D's, he has until after super Tuesday to switch to the senate race. He's got plenty of time to switch.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:12 pm

Maybe Hickenlooper, but the Dems are probably picking up that seat anyway.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:12 pm

Like I said, it's not just Democrats who have skipped the Senate and are currently actually running for the WH; you also have Dems who have opted to not run because they are setting up to possibly be a VP/cabinet option, or who the hell knows why.

In all (IMO):

Hickenlooper
Abrams
Joaquin Castro
O'Rourke
Vilsack
Axne
Bullock

No, they're not all currently running for prez, and they're not slam dunks to win Senate seats, but I think all of them have serious shots, and it's disappointing that they've publicly declared they're not running for Senate seats.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:14 pm

According to this: Filing deadlines
http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

Colorado, April 6, 2020:
Maine, March 16, 2020
Montana, March 9, 2020
Texas, December 9, 2019

Plenty of time to jump into these states, tail between legs from failed pres bid and all.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Tim » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:15 pm

Oops - earlier than I remembered for Beto, but still six months away.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:15 pm

On that note, I can't figure out what Stacy Abrams' plan is. Is she hoping for a Veep slot? Running for GA Governor?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:18 pm

Also, for those actually running for pres, there's plenty of fundraising rollover they can actually do right? Abrams, or others without a pres campaign are perhaps the only really curious cases, if that's the case.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:19 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:According to this: Filing deadlines
http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

Colorado, April 6, 2020:
Maine, March 16, 2020
Montana, March 9, 2020
Texas, December 9, 2019

Plenty of time to jump into these states, tail between legs from failed pres bid and all.


Right, but we're talking people who have (sometimes inexplicably) go on out of their way to declare that they won't be running for Senate. Obviously it's not like they can't change their minds, but it's also not a matter of people simply staying mum on what their plans are.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:23 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:According to this: Filing deadlines
http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

Colorado, April 6, 2020:
Maine, March 16, 2020
Montana, March 9, 2020
Texas, December 9, 2019

Plenty of time to jump into these states, tail between legs from failed pres bid and all.


Right, but we're talking people who have (sometimes inexplicably) go on out of their way to declare that they won't be running for Senate. Obviously it's not like they can't change their minds, but it's also not a matter of people simply staying mum on what their plans are.

May have missed it from the last page, but this just happened last cycle with Rubio. Caveat of a really late primary cycle and all, but it's not exactly unprecedented to actively declare you aren't running then swapping at the last moment.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:34 pm

Also, are you really that disappointed about Hickenlooper? Isn't he basically the Colorado-Biden minus creepy stuff (AFAIK).
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:58 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:08 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:Also, are you really that disappointed about Hickenlooper? Isn't he basically the Colorado-Biden minus creepy stuff (AFAIK).


I don't mind those kinds of chumps running for Senate seats.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:40 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Also, are you really that disappointed about Hickenlooper? Isn't he basically the Colorado-Biden minus creepy stuff (AFAIK).


I don't mind those kinds of chumps running for Senate seats.

But like generic solidly left Colorado D shouldn't worry you that much, either right?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:44 pm

Are we inexplicably talking about Michael Bennet?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:28 pm

I think the board would agree with me if they knew the details about the two: Hickenlooper >> Bennett. Not that either of them are relevent to a national discussion about anything. I would like Hickenlooper running for the Senate, though. Even though I prefer other not-very-well-known people as actual Senators, he's probably the surest bet to win the Senate seat and he's mostly fine.

It ought to be Hickenlooper's campaign slogan. "He's mostly fine."
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:12 am


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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:26 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:Are we inexplicably talking about Michael Bennet?

No. Whoever ends up running against Gardener.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:52 am

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Are we inexplicably talking about Michael Bennet?

No. Whoever ends up running against Gardener.

Even without Hickenlooper its a crowded field. Whomever wins will be in a strong position to win the general. I just hope it isn't Johnston, who is a DINO in progressive clothing, and probably the favorite, as it stands.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:21 pm



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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby squally1313 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

Say what you will about his expertise, but this is somewhat surprising and not really what I thought.

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:26 pm

squally1313 wrote:Say what you will about his expertise, but this is somewhat surprising and not really what I thought.


Yea, they're not going to be able to count on big changes in 2020. They just have to have a strategy focused on making swing 2022 Senators look as badly as possible and recruit the best possible talent to topple them.

The changes they can make will be mostly administrative branch related.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby squally1313 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:37 pm

Well if I'm reading it right, he's saying that in the situation where a Dem wins the presidency, the Democrats would be slight favorites to take back the Senate (given the voting conditions necessary for a Dem presidential victory). Which is...encouraging.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:55 pm

squally1313 wrote:Well if I'm reading it right, he's saying that in the situation where a Dem wins the presidency, the Democrats would be slight favorites to take back the Senate (given the voting conditions necessary for a Dem presidential victory). Which is...encouraging.

Some here were saying this very thing a couple of months ago but the consensus was that the idea was nuts.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:01 pm

squally1313 wrote:Say what you will about his expertise, but this is somewhat surprising and not really what I thought.



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https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/448 ... enate-exit

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is eyeing a possible exit from the Senate, and his decision could be a significant factor in which party controls the majority in 2021.

In moments of frustration, the centrist senator has gone so far as to tell colleagues he may leave the upper chamber before the end of this Congress, or after the 2020 elections.


Manchin noted supporters in West Virginia are pressing him to run for governor next year, and he’s considering it.
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