"Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:36 pm

Backtobanks wrote:Assuming the Cubs need to make trades to fill some of their holes, Schwarber and Caratini are the only somewhat valuable assets on the roster. I don't think any of the core 4 will be traded, so that leaves the top prospects (Amaya, Hoerner, etc.) or players on the roster.


Soler was traded like 3 years ago
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:41 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Bertz wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients


If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.


Maybe I'm not thinking about this right, but I don't see how the juiced ball really impacts his value relative to other players. Everyone is playing with it. He was 37th in baseball in home runs last year, this year he's getting more ABs and he's 20th. Everyone else is hitting more home runs, but so is he, so I don't get how his value drops. To use non-specific numbers, hitting 125% of the league average is equally valuable is the league average is 15 or 20.


Schwarber's HR/FB rates the last three years:

2017 - 24.0
2018 - 24.5
2019 - 24.1

Edit: For context, league wide HR/FB the last three years is 13.7, 12.7, 15.4

He's NOT getting the big boost from the ball. His well struck balls were always dongs, but now they are just going another 10-15 feet. Schwarber's .844 OPS this year isn't that notable because the league average is .760. But if the ball reverts, and the league average OPS goes back to last year's. 728 or (god forbid) 2014's .700, suddenly he's back to being a feared slugger.

Honestly I think this is the primary reason the shine is off the apple for most of our offensive core, but that's a whole other thing.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:43 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.


The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.


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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:32 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?



Good luck with that plan.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:34 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?



Good luck with that plan.


Yes, if only we could find other examples of teams doing what needs to be done to dump bad long term contracts. SURELY IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:40 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.


The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

With the year he’s having I’m guessing Kendrick. gets a near everyday job somewhere next year and I don’t think we’d give it to him/hope we’d aim higher for an everyday guy as idk how much of what he’s doing is real. The goal should be to find the next 2019 Kendrick (or 2018 Descalso) on the cheap before they have a big year like this instead of paying for the guy after he has the big year that may be flukey for a bench/role spot.



He's having a great season, but he's been really good over his whole career. IDK what he'll get in the off season, but he could get quite a few AB by filling the Zobrist role.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:41 pm

Bertz wrote:If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.


I was actually referring to his season lines - Ks are down for the second year in a row, power is up significantly over last year with a .280 IsoSLG up from .230, headed into his age 27 season next year. I don't buy the italicized necessarily but mostly because I don't get why. He's a limited player but if he's making more contact, hitting it far in the air, doing more against LHs, and still taking walks its hard to buy that he's not capable of topping 120 pretty handily
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:42 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?



Good luck with that plan.


Yes, if only we could find other examples of teams doing what needs to be done to dump bad long term contracts. SURELY IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED.



Except we don't need another bad contract or some nothing "prospect" plus it gives us one more hole to fill on the field.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:45 pm

Barring the juiciness continuing, Heyward IS a already a hole to fill. The dude got a reprieve from his declining defensive value because of the power boost. Work out ye olde swap a bad long term contract for a bad short term contract that's more expensive per year and be done with it. horsefeathers the Ricketteseseseseseses' money. Either you get rid of him or relegate him as a 4th OFer.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:48 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.


I was actually referring to his season lines - Ks are down for the second year in a row, power is up significantly over last year with a .280 IslSLG


Also, OF COURSE it's more of a nice hot streak. He's put up a 1.070 OPS since August 1. But it counts towards his season. And to Tom's point, his K rate in the first half was 28.3%. Second half is 18%. So we're looking at about 2 months of real development in that area, which is really encouraging.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:54 pm

You know who's an interesting guy to look into coming into the offseason is Starling Marte. Has two more options at $24m total for the Pirates, who may think they're just a little far away from contending to pay that money. He'd look pretty nice in center next year.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:20 pm

squally1313 wrote:You know who's an interesting guy to look into coming into the offseason is Starling Marte. Has two more options at $24m total for the Pirates, who may think they're just a little far away from contending to pay that money. He'd look pretty nice in center next year.

Yeah he’d be an ideal target, don’t know if they’d deal with us or accept their fate of being a garbage team for the duration of his deal and sell. I also like Jed Lowrie as a target if he’s healthy and they do some reshuffling.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:23 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
squally1313 wrote:You know who's an interesting guy to look into coming into the offseason is Starling Marte. Has two more options at $24m total for the Pirates, who may think they're just a little far away from contending to pay that money. He'd look pretty nice in center next year.

Yeah he’d be an ideal target, don’t know if they’d deal with us or accept their fate of being a garbage team for the duration of his deal and sell. I also like Jed Lowrie as a target if he’s healthy and they do some reshuffling.


Yeah, the Pirates trading Marte to the Cubs seems like a longshot. Lowrie OTOH seems like a good idea that might be able to happen. Might even be able to get him for some more big name full season RHs like Miller or Riley Thompson

Oh and 18% K rate in the second half? Nice, maybe Schwarber really does have a year or two more with the Cubs in him
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:06 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.


I was actually referring to his season lines - Ks are down for the second year in a row, power is up significantly over last year with a .280 IsoSLG up from .230, headed into his age 27 season next year. I don't buy the italicized necessarily but mostly because I don't get why. He's a limited player but if he's making more contact, hitting it far in the air, doing more against LHs, and still taking walks its hard to buy that he's not capable of topping 120 pretty handily


His season line right now with a 25% K rate is only a 112. wrc+. So how do you see him "handily" topping 120 while staying at 25%? I personally only see one way: a de-juiced ball leading his .840 OPS to be more impressive on a league adjusted basis.

If you think his K rate is going to continue to improve, then I don't understand what you're disagreeing with. I already said that I think this a hot streak, but that if these improvements are permanent it obviously changes the calculus.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:32 pm

Bertz wrote:His season line right now with a 25% K rate is only a 112. wrc+. So how do you see him "handily" topping 120 while staying at 25%? I personally only see one way: a de-juiced ball leading his .840 OPS to be more impressive on a league adjusted basis.

If you think his K rate is going to continue to improve, then I don't understand what you're disagreeing with. I already said that I think this a hot streak, but that if these improvements are permanent it obviously changes the calculus.


His BABIP's 40 points lower than last year and well below his career average so that's a quick start. Walk rate is the lowest of his career, career year in EV, he barrels the ball consistently, hard, and far, makes more contact...There's not alot of stuff saying that .840 OPS is the best he's capable of at 25% and that 112 can climb pretty quickly with just his normal BABIP and BB rates instead. If the K rate really is still improving - say if this second half 18% leads to a league average or better K rate during his age 27 season we might really really get something

Iunno anything about permanent improvements but an age 27 Schwarber in 2020? Yeah sure, and obviously for the handful million he might make that is well worth finding out
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:55 am

Suck it, haters.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:05 am

Who was the player in the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract that got a long entry about how he came up as chunky but productive LF, got into working out back when that was kinda weird rather than woke, and basically made himself a productive ML for years? Schwarber?
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:11 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:His season line right now with a 25% K rate is only a 112. wrc+. So how do you see him "handily" topping 120 while staying at 25%? I personally only see one way: a de-juiced ball leading his .840 OPS to be more impressive on a league adjusted basis.

If you think his K rate is going to continue to improve, then I don't understand what you're disagreeing with. I already said that I think this a hot streak, but that if these improvements are permanent it obviously changes the calculus.


His BABIP's 40 points lower than last year and well below his career average so that's a quick start. Walk rate is the lowest of his career, career year in EV, he barrels the ball consistently, hard, and far, makes more contact...There's not alot of stuff saying that .840 OPS is the best he's capable of at 25% and that 112 can climb pretty quickly with just his normal BABIP and BB rates instead. If the K rate really is still improving - say if this second half 18% leads to a league average or better K rate during his age 27 season we might really really get something

Iunno anything about permanent improvements but an age 27 Schwarber in 2020? Yeah sure, and obviously for the handful million he might make that is well worth finding out


His BABIP is only 15 points under his career line. With someone that puts the ball in play as little as him that's ~5 hits. It's 40 points lower than last year because last year he got Chili'd and hit the ball on the ground a lot more, so you're not getting back to that point unless you want to sacrifice a half dozen dongs for like 15 singles.

I'm not trying to run the guy out of town, in fact I'm pretty sure I defended him in April in this very thread, I'm just pointing out that basic math shows that he's pretty much capped at his current numbers unless there is a further drop in his K rate. Squally pointed out that he's at 18% since the ASB. That's great! But either an improvement in K's or my whole juiced ball thing *has* to be the case for him to be anything more than he's been thus far.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby sneakypower » Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:18 pm

Schwarber 2nd in ISO since the start of August
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby David » Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:44 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Who was the player in the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract that got a long entry about how he came up as chunky but productive LF, got into working out back when that was kinda weird rather than woke, and basically made himself a productive ML for years? Schwarber?


I aspire to be as consistent at anything as you are at being weird as hell dude
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:01 pm

David wrote:I aspire to be as consistent at anything as you are at being weird as hell dude


David, it is not that weird for a human being to vaguely remember a passage in a book they liked about a thing they liked lol
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:11 pm

Pretty sure that was Matt Stairs
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:20 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
David wrote:I aspire to be as consistent at anything as you are at being weird as hell dude


David, it is not that weird for a human being to vaguely remember a passage in a book they liked about a thing they liked lol

it's weird to refer to working out as being woke.


Also you're thinking of Andy Dwyer.
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Re:

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:27 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Pretty sure that was Matt Stairs


Nah, I'd remember that. Some guy from the 70s or 80s, maybe an Oriole, possibly Brian or Patrick in the name. I always remember the narrative but not the player...IIRC he also wore glasses
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:29 pm

Bertz wrote:His BABIP is only 15 points under his career line. With someone that puts the ball in play as little as him that's ~5 hits. It's 40 points lower than last year because last year he got Chili'd and hit the ball on the ground a lot more, so you're not getting back to that point unless you want to sacrifice a half dozen dongs for like 15 singles.

I'm not trying to run the guy out of town, in fact I'm pretty sure I defended him in April in this very thread, I'm just pointing out that basic math shows that he's pretty much capped at his current numbers unless there is a further drop in his K rate. Squally pointed out that he's at 18% since the ASB. That's great! But either an improvement in K's or my whole juiced ball thing has* to be the case for him to be anything more than he's been thus far.


This is still off to me. Schwarber heading into last night's game had a 124 wRC+ over his past ~350 PAs and also a 25% K rate, and that was carried by a low .32something OBP. If he had that same K rate but his career BABIP and BB rates this year he'd be putting up something right around that .250+/.350+/.530+ slash I threw up a few posts ago which would cross the 120 mark pretty easily. That he's very possibly still knocking Ks off only makes this more exciting and a bigger step forward more possible
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