2020 roster

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:32 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I’m surprised a Theo run organization hasn’t dedicated a spot in the pen the last few years to shuffle through guys in hopes of unearthing a gem since every other smart team seems to have dedicated a pen spot to a AAA/DFA shuttle like that recently instead of giving the Brad Brach, Brian Duensing’s etc of the world MLB money and sticking with them too long.

Finding good to decent cheap and controlled talent (especially pitchers) is kinda important right now. Mills has looked good and Underwood has been decent since the relief move in AAA. Don’t know why they’re definitely worse options and not worth trying out and instead paying guys like Gausman and Sanchez real money is a smart move. If they aren’t used in trades I think they both should be given a look to start the year and essentially the first guys on the shuttle to begin the year, if they suck after a month or so cut bait and cycle through other dudes with options.


Bold: Literally Rowan Wick's path, Edwards Jr. before him

Italics: Underwood's long history of being terrible

No one is downplaying the importance of landing cheap and controlled talent, but possibly the most important key is that they not suck. Mills is boring but he's been a pretty good AAA pitcher for a while and just had a nice run, fine guy to shuttle if he has options. Since he doesn't, Mills will be a tough guy to keep. Underwood is 8 years in on getting by on being young, potentially cheap, and something about upside but without anything actually being there. Hell, his stuff isn't even good. It doesn't look good, it's not power stuff, he doesn't command it, it's not high spin or sneaky or any of that stuff...Do what everyone else does and scour the waiver wire, make the small trades, gamble on healthy fallen prospects or stars in smaller roles, and promote the guys who actually get guys out in the minors consistently and in a believable way
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:38 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I’m surprised a Theo run organization hasn’t dedicated a spot in the pen the last few years to shuffle through guys in hopes of unearthing a gem since every other smart team seems to have dedicated a pen spot to a AAA/DFA shuttle like that recently instead of giving the Brad Brach, Brian Duensing’s etc of the world MLB money and sticking with them too long.

Finding good to decent cheap and controlled talent (especially pitchers) is kinda important right now. Mills has looked good and Underwood has been decent since the relief move in AAA. Don’t know why they’re definitely worse options and not worth trying out and instead paying guys like Gausman and Sanchez real money is a smart move. If they aren’t used in trades I think they both should be given a look to start the year and essentially the first guys on the shuttle to begin the year, if they suck after a month or so cut bait and cycle through other dudes with options.


Bold: Literally Rowan Wick's path, Edwards Jr. before him

Italics: Underwood's long history of being terrible

No one is downplaying the importance of landing cheap and controlled talent, but possibly the most important key is that they not suck. Mills is boring but he's been a pretty good AAA pitcher for a while and just had a nice run, fine guy to shuttle if he has options. Since he doesn't, Mills will be a tough guy to keep. Underwood is 8 years in on getting by on being young, potentially cheap, and something about upside but without anything actually being there. Hell, his stuff isn't even good. It doesn't look good, it's not power stuff, he doesn't command it, it's not high spin or sneaky or any of that stuff...Do what everyone else does and scour the waiver wire, make the small trades, gamble on healthy fallen prospects or stars in smaller roles, and promote the guys who actually get guys out in the minors consistently and in a believable way

Okay, but the bold happened late in the year after Brach, Monty, Strop, etc all got way too many chances to prove they sucked and we didn’t get guys going on the shuttle fast enough. And none of this is why Gausman or Sanchez should be brought in. They’re going to cost real money and MLB roster spots, hey I’m all for dumping Underwood as you’re probably right about him but I’d rather replace him with Wick and Ryan types that we can shuffle through that don’t cost real money and hope we hit on one out every 6-8 of them.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:53 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:Since MLBTR put out their Arb numbers, I've been playing with salary for the next few offseasons, and next offseason looks really tight. I have payroll right around $200M already if we exercise Lester's option (more on that in a minute). And that's BEFORE committing additional money this winter.

How are you getting to $200 mil going in 2021 with just internal guys? Spotrac has us at $94 right now. That doesn’t include the minimum $10 on Lester but includes Descalo’s $3.5 team option so let’s call it $100 mil before arbitration. We don’t have $100 mil in arbitration going in to next year, do we? Seems like that number is closer to $50-60.


To clarify, I'm talking LT numbers. So Spotrac's 95, ~15 for Insurance, Lester's 15, and then all that arb money (~25 for Bryant, ~15 for Javy, ~12 for Schwarber, ~7 for Willson, and then odds and ends like Happ in his first arb year). I'll post a screengrab of my spreadsheet when I get back on that laptop if you want to see in detail.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:03 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Okay, but the bold happened late in the year after Brach, Monty, Strop, etc all got way too many chances to prove they sucked and we didn’t get guys going on the shuttle fast enough. And none of this is why Gausman or Sanchez should be brought in. They’re going to cost real money and MLB roster spots, hey I’m all for dumping Underwood as you’re probably right about him but I’d rather replace him with Wick and Ryan types that we can shuffle through that don’t cost real money and hope we hit on one out every 6-8 of them.


Guys like Strop and Montgomery, a popular SP candidate among Cubs fans like 11 months ago, has some leash. The Cubs, at least IMO, have been pretty quick to dump the Brachs, Phil Cokes, and Duensing once they collapse. That said even if you disagree with that opinion, the correction probably isn't to reserve roster spots for Duane Underwood and Alec Mills. Gausman and Sanchez don't have to be the specific acquisitions but the idea should be the same - in their 20s, have had significant pro successes, are mostly healthy at least the arm is, low cost and low commit, power arms, aren't in any position to make demands about roles....those are the kind of arms the Cubs should be gambling on this offseason...I'm waaaaaaay more confident you can get anything - a SP, MR, long man/spot starter, or high leverage guy out of that kind of crowd than just cycling through the team's crappy 2019 AAA pitching staff again
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:37 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Okay, but the bold happened late in the year after Brach, Monty, Strop, etc all got way too many chances to prove they sucked and we didn’t get guys going on the shuttle fast enough. And none of this is why Gausman or Sanchez should be brought in. They’re going to cost real money and MLB roster spots, hey I’m all for dumping Underwood as you’re probably right about him but I’d rather replace him with Wick and Ryan types that we can shuffle through that don’t cost real money and hope we hit on one out every 6-8 of them.


the idea should be the same - in their 20s, have had significant pro successes, are mostly healthy at least the arm is, low cost and low commit, power arms, aren't in any position to make demands about roles....those are the kind of arms the Cubs should be gambling on this offseason...I'm waaaaaaay more confident you can get anything - a SP, MR, long man/spot starter, or high leverage guy out of that kind of crowd than just cycling through the team's crappy 2019 AAA pitching staff again

100% agree and I hope we add some guys like that, my guy Pivetta fits that profile. On the non bolded part I disagree a bit, we have a lot of AAA/near ready arms I think something shakes loose if guys are given chances (and I’m talking 1 maybe 2 spots in the pen to shuffle these guys through, at least one proven/reliable RP needs to be added in some way). The mentioned Mills, Underwood, but also Adbert, Norwood, Mekkes, Rea, Graveman, Steele, Wieck off the top of my head. But having those guys doesn’t and shouldn’t preclude us from adding some more guys to it on minor league deals or acquiring guys with options.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby abmillis » Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:59 am

I know we have mostly written off any KB deal, but if you make one, I feel like it has to start with an all star caliber ML player AND a top 50ish prospect. Dude has won an MVP already, and while he has had injury issues, he has looked to be improving upon that MVP season before getting hurt each of the last two years.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:29 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:Since MLBTR put out their Arb numbers, I've been playing with salary for the next few offseasons, and next offseason looks really tight. I have payroll right around $200M already if we exercise Lester's option (more on that in a minute). And that's BEFORE committing additional money this winter.

How are you getting to $200 mil going in 2021 with just internal guys? Spotrac has us at $94 right now. That doesn’t include the minimum $10 on Lester but includes Descalo’s $3.5 team option so let’s call it $100 mil before arbitration. We don’t have $100 mil in arbitration going in to next year, do we? Seems like that number is closer to $50-60.


Image

Here you go. This says 208, but there's a few easy cuts there like Descalso and Kemp, plus realistically in any scenarios where Graveman is still on the team that $4.5 is a bargain. For arb cases, I gave guys a 50% raise each year. On a guy-by-huy basis there's some error, but on a team-wide level it ends up working really well. Like when I did this over the summer I already had us at ~$210, because I missed low on Schwarber by about as much as I missed high on Bryant and everyone else was close.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Tryptamine » Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:27 pm

abmillis wrote:I know we have mostly written off any KB deal, but if you make one, I feel like it has to start with an all star caliber ML player AND a top 50ish prospect. Dude has won an MVP already, and while he has had injury issues, he has looked to be improving upon that MVP season before getting hurt each of the last two years.


I think you're going to be disappointed. Bryant is great but he's also going to make a lot of money and teams are more protective of their top prospects than ever before. I think we'd be lucky to get a guy like Fried as a headliner and maybe a package like Lucchesi+Urias+Cantillo as a return.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:24 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
abmillis wrote:I know we have mostly written off any KB deal, but if you make one, I feel like it has to start with an all star caliber ML player AND a top 50ish prospect. Dude has won an MVP already, and while he has had injury issues, he has looked to be improving upon that MVP season before getting hurt each of the last two years.


I think you're going to be disappointed. Bryant is great but he's also going to make a lot of money and teams are more protective of their top prospects than ever before. I think we'd be lucky to get a guy like Fried as a headliner and maybe a package like Lucchesi+Urias+Cantillo as a return.

My rough outline for a trade for him would be a top 25-30 prospect, a top 100-75 (not top 50) prospect, 1-2 lower level prospects that either have a projectable floor and can move fast or high upside but high risk guys (like Gallardo, Pedro Martinez, Morel, Roederer, etc) a guy like another team’s Bote/Happ on the major league roster and a pen arm.

I don’t know if this trade is out there or if a team would pay the rough ask but that would be what it takes for me to do it.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:33 pm

Tryptamine wrote:I think you're going to be disappointed.


Agreed but for a whole different thing - no one I can think of has an AS and top 50 worth moving Bryant for or even considering it. I'm not even sure anyone in the Cubs' FO would be on the phone to hear the rest of that Fried led offer
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:15 pm

What about a package centered on Alek Thomas and Kevin Ginkel from Arizona?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:22 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about a package centered on Alek Thomas and Kevin Ginkel from Arizona?


you want to trade Kris Bryant for a reliever and an outfielder with a .667 OPS in High A
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Gilby » Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:11 pm

I feel like there's a potential match with either the Braves or Rays involving Caratini. Both teams have extra pitching. The Braves will probably be looking for a LHH to pair with Flowers, and DArnaud is a FA so it'd be a way for the Rays to save a buck.
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 roster

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:53 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about a package centered on Alek Thomas and Kevin Ginkel from Arizona?


you want to trade Kris Bryant for a reliever and an outfielder with a .667 OPS in High A


Well that's one way you can view it

Or you can see that you're judging a 100 PA sample, he posted a 400 woba the level prior, his Ks spiked to a highly uncharacteristic level, and he carries a 50 FV at our most desired position. Hes 75th on fg's board and could very easily be top 50 when the newest list drops. He was a 2nd round pick just 2 years ago and will be 20 when the season starts. Yeah, just an outfielder with a 6 something OPS at High A...

Meanwhile Ginkel posted a 41% K-BB and kept HR relatively in check at the most troublesome level for a pro pitcher last year. He held his own in MLB and we need more high leverage arms. We should try to be less reliant on the rotation anyway so a guy like Ginkel could provide some good value for the team. I don't know why we'd scoff at a guy who could pitch multiple innings, throws strikes, and misses a ton of bats.

On top of all that, that is just the foundation of the package I am curious about. All along I've been told to temper expectations of a return so I'm not really shooting for the stars there. I'm tying to remain reasonable.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:09 am

I wouldn't even think about starting a conversation to move Contreras for that offer, let alone an actual MVP in his 20s
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Re: RE: Re: 2020 roster

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:12 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:What about a package centered on Alek Thomas and Kevin Ginkel from Arizona?


you want to trade Kris Bryant for a reliever and an outfielder with a .667 OPS in High A


Well that's one way you can view it

Or you can see that you're judging a 100 PA sample, he posted a 400 woba the level prior, his Ks spiked to a highly uncharacteristic level, and he carries a 50 FV at our most desired position. Hes 75th on fg's board and could very easily be top 50 when the newest list drops. He was a 2nd round pick just 2 years ago and will be 20 when the season starts. Yeah, just an outfielder with a 6 something OPS at High A...

Meanwhile Ginkel posted a 41% K-BB and kept HR relatively in check at the most troublesome level for a pro pitcher last year. He held his own in MLB and we need more high leverage arms. We should try to be less reliant on the rotation anyway so a guy like Ginkel could provide some good value for the team. I don't know why we'd scoff at a guy who could pitch multiple innings, throws strikes, and misses a ton of bats.

On top of all that, that is just the foundation of the package I am curious about. All along I've been told to temper expectations of a return so I'm not really shooting for the stars there. I'm tying to remain reasonable.


I mean we can slice it a bunch of different ways, but we're talking about the *foundation* of the trade being an OF who was 75th on Fangraphs recent Top 100 and has a 2022 ETA, and a reliever with a very good MLB debut who lacks pedigree(22nd round college draftee), elite velocity or control.

I can appreciate you're trying to be grounded and not just list another team's best toys as a trade return, but if this is what we're dreaming up then the extremely obvious conclusion is do not trade Bryant. That type of deal would dramatically hurt the team's ability to contend in 2020-2021, and someone like Thomas is such a wild card that there's a significant chance of no benefit for 2022+ either. Any deal we can dream up has to be at least net neutral for the team's competitiveness in the short run or it's not worth it, and that's why there's so few realistic partners.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby d_money » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:48 am

If the Cubs suck in the first half next year, a team on the cusp of doing something will be wiling to overpay for Bryant.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:06 am

Things are really going great when I have to keep reminding people that trading Bryant is dumb.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby UK » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:50 pm

Having scouted Thomas in HS and seen him 15 times at Mt Carmel, I put his comp and ceiling at Adam Eaton.

Which would put trading him as the centerpiece for Bryant 1000X worse than the fleecing the Sox did in getting Giolito/Lopez for Eaton.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:56 pm

I'm pulling for the Bryant trade just to finally see my struggling "FIRE THEO" movement get some traction.

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Re: 2020 roster

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:04 pm

Bertz wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:Since MLBTR put out their Arb numbers, I've been playing with salary for the next few offseasons, and next offseason looks really tight. I have payroll right around $200M already if we exercise Lester's option (more on that in a minute). And that's BEFORE committing additional money this winter.

How are you getting to $200 mil going in 2021 with just internal guys? Spotrac has us at $94 right now. That doesn’t include the minimum $10 on Lester but includes Descalo’s $3.5 team option so let’s call it $100 mil before arbitration. We don’t have $100 mil in arbitration going in to next year, do we? Seems like that number is closer to $50-60.


Image

Here you go. This says 208, but there's a few easy cuts there like Descalso and Kemp, plus realistically in any scenarios where Graveman is still on the team that $4.5 is a bargain. For arb cases, I gave guys a 50% raise each year. On a guy-by-huy basis there's some error, but on a team-wide level it ends up working really well. Like when I did this over the summer I already had us at ~$210, because I missed low on Schwarber by about as much as I missed high on Bryant and everyone else was close.


What can be expected from Graveman, swingman out of the pen?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:12 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:Things are really going great when I have to keep reminding people that trading Bryant is dumb.


But if his $/WAR no longer aligns with their place on the win curve who can fight it
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:40 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:What can be expected from Graveman, swingman out of the pen?


He was a league average-ish starter before getting hurt. Plus his profile has some of the same markers as guys that have used data to optimize their pitch mix and turn into stars. Graveman has a sinker with really good velocity and a fairly mediocre spin rate that he throws more than 50% of the time. However, his four seamer has elite velocity (would have ranked 15th among and good spin (would have ranked 58th). His cutter and curveball both are high spin offerings as well. By changing his usage patterns there's hope he can unlock another level.

Now obviously guys don't always come back right from TJ surgery. And Tyler Chatwood has shown us that spin rate does not equal success. BUT if you were scouring the league for the next Charlie Morton, Graveman would be near the top of your list. He's a good gamble at $3M, especially because he still has a minor league option, so we can let him hang out at Iowa until someone gets hurt.
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:17 pm

Bertz wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:What can be expected from Graveman, swingman out of the pen?


He was a league average-ish starter before getting hurt. Plus his profile has some of the same markers as guys that have used data to optimize their pitch mix and turn into stars. Graveman has a sinker with really good velocity and a fairly mediocre spin rate that he throws more than 50% of the time. However, his four seamer has elite velocity (would have ranked 15th among and good spin (would have ranked 58th). His cutter and curveball both are high spin offerings as well. By changing his usage patterns there's hope he can unlock another level.

Now obviously guys don't always come back right from TJ surgery. And Tyler Chatwood has shown us that spin rate does not equal success. BUT if you were scouring the league for the next Charlie Morton, Graveman would be near the top of your list. He's a good gamble at $3M, especially because he still has a minor league option, so we can let him hang out at Iowa until someone gets hurt.


whats he ave (mph) on his 4 seamer?
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Re: 2020 roster

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:39 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Bertz wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:What can be expected from Graveman, swingman out of the pen?


He was a league average-ish starter before getting hurt. Plus his profile has some of the same markers as guys that have used data to optimize their pitch mix and turn into stars. Graveman has a sinker with really good velocity and a fairly mediocre spin rate that he throws more than 50% of the time. However, his four seamer has elite velocity (would have ranked 15th among and good spin (would have ranked 58th). His cutter and curveball both are high spin offerings as well. By changing his usage patterns there's hope he can unlock another level.

Now obviously guys don't always come back right from TJ surgery. And Tyler Chatwood has shown us that spin rate does not equal success. BUT if you were scouring the league for the next Charlie Morton, Graveman would be near the top of your list. He's a good gamble at $3M, especially because he still has a minor league option, so we can let him hang out at Iowa until someone gets hurt.


whats he ave (mph) on his 4 seamer?


94.7 MPH in 2018 before he went down for surgery. That would have ranked 15th in 2019, tied with Justin Verlander. In 2017 he was at 93.7, which would still be a top 30 velo, but more in line with Sonny Gray or Jose Berrios.
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