Minor League Musings

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:50 pm



Dylan Carlson with the Cardinals got the staff vote, Robel Garcia got the fan vote for MiLB breakout prospect of the year. It'll be interesting to see the offseason feedback on Garcia this is a positive start

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:55 pm

https://www.thecubreporter.com/11072019 ... ree-agents

^ List of Cubs' MiL FAs

RHP Corey Black (who spent the 2019 season on the AA Tennessee 60-day Injured List after undergoing TJS for the second time in his career in April), OF Charcer Burks, OF Roberto Caro, C Erick Castillo, RHP Oscar de la Cruz, LHP Luke Hagerty (who spent the 2019 season on the Myrtle Beach 60-day Injured List after undergoing surgery to repair a torn left flexor tendon in April), LHP Luis Lugo, and C Jhonny Pereda were eligible to be a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA, but each of them signed a 2020 minor league successor contract prior to being declared a 6YFA.


One guy I'm glad to see got a deal was LHP Luis Lugo. He's not really a prospect anymore but was, always nice to get in an org arm, and has an interesting overall profile and background. Giant LH, healthy arm, throws lots of innings, throws pretty hard for a LH, initally signed by a really good pitching org (Indians) and threw alot of innings in their program/s, had a good acclimation year in the Cubs' system threw some AA innings, no off field issues just a professional MiL pitcher trynna make it and contribute to a positive working environment kinda guy...All those resigned guys are Rule V eligible, wouldn't be surprised if all are left exposed tbh even Pereda thanks to strong C depth (Castillo played at Iowa last year, Taylor Davis is a MiL FA but he'd come back probably), Amaya's got the AA job unless they trade him etc
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Post Count Padder » Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:02 pm

Glad they got re-signed. Hoping Black and Hagerty make it. Burks should be good CF depth at some point. And I still have hopes de la Cruz becomes an interesting reliever for us.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:22 am

Been trying to come up with a top 30...

1 - Amaya

2 - Ademan - He and Amaya are less far apart than I thought like two-three months ago, check out the pretty swing on this HR against a LHP going the opposite way...If things go good next year I'm thinking the ML offensive game can resemble a healthy, IF Brandon Nimmo

3 - Hoerner - Probably got tedious a while ago but honestly how I feel about Hoerner/Ademan. Not a bad prospect by any means but doesn't have the upside the first two have nor the certainty you'd like from a prospect in AA++

4 - Davis - Best combo of size/speed/power in the system, showed alot of potential skills, and wow does this team need a worthwhile OF prospect

5 - R. Jensen - Pound for pound the best fastball duo in the system (four and two seam/sinker)

6 - Gallardo - Advanced skills with outstanding athleticism is what we're usually saying about the top Cubs IFA bats

7 - Alzolay - The pitcher Hoerner in that he kinda came out of nowhere, relatively speaking, and doesn't really offer the certainty you hope for/expect out of a AA+ guy

8 - Abbott - I think he's throwing ML innings somewhere in 2020, one of the few in house arms I actually like to find a role on the ML club if not traded

9 - P. Martinez - One of my new favorites on the farm, could be ready for the upper minors midseason 2021 at 20

10 - Marquez - Still think more Justin Wilson than Jon Lester

11 - McAvene - Another possibly really fun four seam from the 2019 draft, my favorite 2019 draftee debut along with Nelson Maldonado

12 - Giambrone - Seems ready to contribute whatever speed/power/patience/defense he has

13 - Mekkes - Roster him and do other much more cool things, Theo! Or don't and do the other stuff anyway but he seems fine and there's 8 spots open on a team that needs like 2-3 players (the right ones obvy, should be a cakewalk) to be great

14 - Machin - See Giambrone, LHH with some quality plate discipline too....Really not hard to see these guys being serviceable and that adds lots of flexibility even now

15 - Roederer - I like his season more than I thought, basically a Jr. version of Ademan's. He played more CF and better than I thought/expected, power played well enough, flashed patience, and I'm willing to give these LHHs getting tough assignments some - some - breathing room on Ks. I just don't think he'll move that fast if you want the Brett Gardner type ceiling since Gardner is yoked up and Roederer's not yet

15 - Strumpf - System lacks power, he has some, but this is about where I start meh'ing out on a 30

16 - R. Garcia - He also has power, in the upper minors too, so that's nice

17 - C. Morel - If he can stay healthy could have a potential starter's ceiling after next year but his plate discipline blows...Cubs do well with power over hit guys otherwise and he's got other ways of contributing (defense, baserunning, clubhouse)

18 - R. Quintero - If anyone spends $3 million on a 16 YO C that's probably a prospect, throw in that he's a LHH and probably the ceiling before he can hack away at it is enormous is how I'm looking at it

19 - R. Morel - Joined Yohendrick Pinango to form the Cubs' most productive DSL duo under Theo. What does it all mean? I'm going him over Pinango because he plays the MIF, took more walks, and showed more power but Pinango's still the coolest

20 - A. Weber - Solid season, drafted young out of college (20), LHH wih MIF potential

21 - Y. Pinango - I imagine the raw tools stack with Roederer's, maybe a quicker bat and maybe not. Didn't hit with any power this year but neither did Ademan in the DSL before he broke out in 2017 so maybe just some young pro LHH [expletive]

22 - C. Sanders - Came in as almost a pure projection and scouting college arm, showed heat and multiple breaking balls and held up physically, love him as a reliever arm but think he should start at least into AA unless something happens

23 - R. Thompson - Solid season, some projection remaining?

24 - Y. Cruz - Interesting frame

25 - J. Albertos - His two offspeeds are still among the very best any of the Cubs' prospects have and he's the same age as a college junior or young senior next year

26 - K. Franklin - Throw more innings!

27 - L. Vazquez

28 - L. Verdugo - Back to back glove first SSs with questions about the bat, I'd say Vazquez is the better athlete plus he's got the 18-out-of-Rk ball card

29 - F. Carrera - A for effort, horse of back to back championship teams. Also sneaks up season leaderboads in the system and in the MWL in K%, K-BB%

30 - DJ Herz - Doesn't seem like anyone in this system wants to throw hard, with command, more than this guy. Very intense, I like

Pretty sure I'm happy with this but wouldn't be surprised if I forgot someone obvious
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bear Cub » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:13 am

Carlos Sepulveda is having a nice winter in Mexico.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bertz » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:28 pm

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:59 am

MLB.com's most athletic Cubs prospect is no surprise:

Cubs: Brennen Davis, OF (No. 3) - Davis helped Basha High (Chandler) win the 2017 Arizona 6-A state basketball title in 2017, when he was named his region's defensive player of the year. He focused on baseball afterward, went in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft and showed 30-30 potential, a more advanced bat than expected and solid defensive ability during his first full pro season.


Callis also took a question on whether Davis could make the top 100:

A Cubs outfielder, Davis is on the verge of making our Top 100 Prospects list. He might already have done so if multiple finger injuries hadn't limited him to 50 games in 2019.

After Chicago signed Davis for $1.1 million as a second-round pick in 2018, the expectation was that the Arizona prep product's development would require patience. Instead, he made the jump to the Class A Midwest League and batted .305/.381/.525 with a .907 OPS that would have led the toughest full-season league on hitters if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

Part of a state championship basketball team in high school, Davis is an exceptional athlete with 30-30 upside. He's more advanced at the plate than expected, possesses well above-average speed and could have at least solid tools across the board when he's a finished product.


How legit is this 30-30 thing? The only clip that I really think shows off how athletic and fast Davis is on offense well enough is this one:



This guy's got some really good ones in there, gets alot of the worthwhile prospects including Gallardo throwing this changeup(!) with Eugene:

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:24 pm



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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:55 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://twitter.com/RealCubsAnalyst/status/1180574117998841857

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Just wanted to say Jay Chandrasekhar is a family friend of mine. And he's a Cubs fan.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:18 pm

Show him that Brennen Davis stache and maybe use it as proof that Super Troopers 3 *needs* to happen

----

BA's updated top 10 for the Cubs could be out within the next 2-3 weeks, NL Central's up after a couple more AL East teams. FanGraphs started putting theirs out today with the D'Backs, but their order is less clear. MLB.com's updated the Brewers and Reds systems among most others but are hit and miss with updated scouting reports even in their latest rankings, might not get those until 2020, and also I have no clue when they do the Cubs

Edit: J/K...MLB.com did an update today:

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-farm-system-analysis

BEST TOOLS

Hit: Nico Hoerner
Power: Brennen Davis
Run: Zach Davis
Arm: Nelson Velazquez
Field: Miguel Amaya
Best athlete: Brennen Davis

Fastball: Brailyn Marquez
Curveball: Chris Clarke
Slider: Keegan Thompson
Changeup: Kohl Franklin
Control: Cory Abbott


STOCK UP/DOWN

green up arrow Riley Thompson, RHP (No. 13): Following Tommy John surgery in high school, Thompson had trouble staying healthy and throwing strikes in college at Louisville but thrived in his first full pro season, maintaining a mid-90s fastball and a quality curveball.

red down arrow Brendon Little, LHP: The 27th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft has seen his stuff fluctuate and has had difficulty harnessing it as a pro, leading to concerns that he might be more reliever than starter.


HOW THE TOP 30 WAS BUILT

Draft: 19
International: 10
Free Agent: 1

Garcia is the lone Cubs Top 30 Prospect not originally signed by the organization, making the system baseball's second-most homegrown behind the Rockies, who inked all 30 of theirs.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:11 am

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... tors-2019/

Eugene, South Bend, and Myrtle Beach are some of the harder places to hit in their respective leagues - more reason I like the bats coming up
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:43 am

MLB.com cited a jump in LD+FB rate when discussing one prospect's bounceback season in 2019:

A closer look reveals the expected corresponding improvement in Robert’s batted-ball data, as he went from producing a fly ball or line drive on 46.5 percent of his balls in play (BIP) in 2018 to 57.9 in ‘19.


Aramis Ademan FB+LD rate in 2018: 50%
2019: 61%

Theeeeeooooooo
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:28 pm



Nahas seems on par with Cam Sanders entering 2019 and Sanders seems a little overlooked within the system after the season. In a different time, like a year ago, I could see Nahas competing for a spot in the SB rotation where he'd probably do alright. Now, since the ML club might want to fast track some of the lower level college arms at least out of the A balls (ex Ethan Roberts probably throwing AA innings pretty early in 2020) and give SP innings to the younger guys, maybe opening as the ace reliever in SB is a route to moving fast
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:01 pm



There's usually lots of clips in this series. Davis' frame, approach, and how quickly he adapted to becoming a flyball hitter with opposite field power is probably my favorite happening on the farm this year. It's hard to find clips of him in CF, none here, but I'm actually less worried about a move to the corners anytime too soon compared to what I expected but also notascout
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CubsWin » Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:51 pm

Somebody needs to talk Tom off the ledge. The Rays just selected one of his favorite sleepers, Faustino Carrera, in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

It'll be okay, buddy. Don't do anything drastic.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:55 pm

Faustinooooooooooooo!!!!!!!
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:04 am

Pinango update, hope to see this guy get a writeup in BA's handbook this year:

Yohendrick Pinango had a good year in the DSL. What type of player could we expect from him going forward?

Josh Norris: He's a good hitting prospect with excellent bat-to-ball skills but still needs to work on hitting the ball to the pull side more often and getting more lift in his swing. That will be a goal of his going forward.


Hot take: Sounds like a nice base to build from coming stateside, no issues making contact yet and comfortable going the other way successfully in pro games...If/When he starts pulling the ball more often should see game power, possibly as soon as next summer in the AZL

Other hot take:

- With Faustino Carrera out, RHP Ethan Roberts has been voted on by the residents inside my head as a worthy heir to being the well off radar fearless strike thrower to mention a normal amount of times over the course of the season. Highlights include 1 HRa in 74 pro innings and just 16 BBs, including a 23/2 K:BB in 24 innings to finish the year in High A. I don't think low minors BB rates for pitchers are that predictive of future control, and if you shrink the role from starter like Roberts even less so, but do think it could be useful for finding guys who might gain velocity suddenly or maybe should get a shot at starting if just to stretch them out more and see what happens...Some of most promising spin in the system too, can throw a distinct curveball and slider something that's always nice to see
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:05 pm

A Christmas peek from earlier tweets at a couple prospects we might be hearing much more about as they pile up reps:



Early signs are that Rafael is the more offensively skilled of the Morel brothers. It's going to be interesting to see what kind of athlete he is compared to his very lithe and twitchy brother, still seems like Rafael is the more physical of the two



It's a gif of a couple swings during a 16 YO's BP, but I'm liking that hint of oppo power
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:22 pm

MLB.com staying on the 30/30 CF ceiling for Brennen Davis not once but twice this week:

Callis/Mayo breakout from each team

Cubs: Brennen Davis, OF (No. 3) -- Though scouts considered Davis one of the better prep athletes in the 2018 Draft, a hamstring injury slowed him as a senior and helped Chicago grab him in the second round. More advanced than expected, he batted .305/.381/.525 and flashed 30-30 upside in low Class A last season -- albeit while limited to 50 games by multiple finger injuries.


Callis Q&A

Brennen Davis, OF, Cubs: Finger injuries limited him to 50 games in low Class A last year, but he flashed 30-30 potential while batting .305/.381/.525 in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, and he could stick in center field.


If Davis hits in AA this year, I wonder how fast or slow the Cubs will be with promotions beyond that. My guess is the Cubs will be alot quicker to promote the next generation of prospects after AA than the first generation of prospects led by Bryant. Hell, in my head maybe the most significant piece of info from the Hoerner callup is that he skipped AAA with a little over 200 PAs in AA and had a more or less successful ML debut. This group will come up with smaller signing bonuses, less fanfare, less prospect status, more skepticism, much darker skin overall, and on a much better ML squad than Bryant's bunch did so the deck is kind of stacked against anyone looking at a Bryant extension situation. So on top of being quicker to promote I could see the Cubs suddenly finding extension money in their pocket. Also working in the Cubs' favor is a good chunk of these players will have been with the org since signing at 16-18, so there's tons of data on health, finances, and families collected

To put that ceiling in context - ML CFers have put in a sub-100 wRC+ in 3 out of the past 4 seasons including a low 94 in 2019. There's Trout at the top, Bellinger hopefully for a while, and then a mad mix at the position. Throw in an extremely marketable profile, especially in Chicago, as a young black former notable HS basketball player turned starting CF on a WS contender (ideally), and he's got superstar potential (ideally). I award me +.0000000000000000088 credibilities for being on Davis in the pre-draft, draft day, and subsequent MiL threads. Still wouldn't complain if he landed Lindor right now, a much less biased me would be calling this ceiling ludicrous for a guy with 50 games + injuries in A ball

A giant framed power/speed CF with patience and a hit tool is Theo pulling at my baseball heartstrings, only way to improve that is by magically learning to switch hit or doing it in the MLs
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:23 pm

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:55 pm

Vance Vizcaino? David Masters? Jerrick Suiter? Who the horsefeathers are these guys? Did the I Cubs put up a help wanted sign at a Country Kitchen? And Corey Black? Hasn’t he been out of baseball for like 5 years?
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Brian » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:25 pm

Thread from the farm panel this morning


this is interesting

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:45 pm

Brian wrote:
this is interesting


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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:07 pm

How far away is Christopher Morel from the kind of breakout season that would put him in the top 100 conversation next winter.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Morel but that seems unlikely. Swing-happy corner guys are scary.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:11 am

Kiley McDaniel is leaving FanGraphs for ESPN starting next week

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-farewell/
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