General Cubs Chit-Chat

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby javy knows my name » Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:26 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:Would you all prefer the jokes to be more saccharine?


I would like them explained to me in detail first
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:09 pm

javy knows my name wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:Would you all prefer the jokes to be more saccharine?


I would like them explained to me in detail first

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby cubweiser03 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:13 pm

PECOTA; Cubs 82 wins. I hope vegas is watching and will follow close to this number. Odds on Bovada are not up yet.
I’m going to hid this hard.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:16 pm

cubweiser03 wrote:PECOTA; Cubs 82 wins. I hope vegas is watching and will follow close to this number. Odds on Bovada are not up yet.
I’m going to hid this hard.

The Vegas numbers are out already and they’re 88-90. I want to say
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:14 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
cubweiser03 wrote:PECOTA; Cubs 82 wins. I hope vegas is watching and will follow close to this number. Odds on Bovada are not up yet.
I’m going to hid this hard.

The Vegas numbers are out already and they’re 88-90. I want to say

Yeah, its going to be hard to find a good number for the Cubs. Just too many homers that bet them. That and no one gives a poo what Pecota says.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:15 am

Don’t know exactly what all goes in to this stat or the validity but Monty had two of the top 5 pitches in MLB by it last year....



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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby David » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:18 pm

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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:25 pm

David wrote:


Dammit, now I have to decide whether I want to visit my buddy in London for the Bears-Raiders game or wait long and go for this potential series.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby David » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:24 pm

Cubs just emailed out their promo schedule today...

Looks like there'll be 5 bobblehead days

5/10 - Hamels
6/21 - Rizzo
7/15 - KB
7/19 - Lester
9/15 - Strop

Some other notable ones

4/14 - Wrigley replica statue
7/16 - 1969 replica jersey

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/tickets/promot ... 1124848073
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:26 am

I was just going through fangraphs and filtering pages to get ready for some fantasy baseball stuff. Did you guys know Monty has the 18th lowest era of qualified pitchers since 2016? That shocked me, I know era is what it is but still.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:16 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I was just going through fangraphs and filtering pages to get ready for some fantasy baseball stuff. Did you guys know Monty has the 18th lowest era of qualified pitchers since 2016? That shocked me, I know era is what it is but still.

Without checking the other rosters, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that Monty is the best 6th SP in baseball, based on projections.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:29 pm

Cannot wait to see Rizzo's bobbleface
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:54 pm



Remember when projections (not necessarily PECOTA but others) had the Cubs winning like 105 games a couple of years ago?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:56 pm

Gimme that sweet, sweet under.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:11 pm

UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1095772768220692480

Remember when projections (not necessarily PECOTA but others) had the Cubs winning like 105 games a couple of years ago?


pecota is big on framing right? i bet if we swapped out contreras for grandal we'd just to first
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:17 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:If you had a button you could push right now that would guarantee the Cubs sweep their way to winning the WS this year, but it would also ensure that we must endure President Trump for at least 4 years, WOULD YOU PUSH IT?

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:28 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1095772768220692480

Remember when projections (not necessarily PECOTA but others) had the Cubs winning like 105 games a couple of years ago?


pecota is big on framing right? i bet if we swapped out contreras for grandal we'd just to first

It has a ridiculous blind spot for framing. Tyler Flowers and some other obscure catcher project to be inside the top ~5 in all of baseball for WAR off their metrics. Miguel Montero projects to be like the 20th best player by WAR this year and a few other random catchers in the top ~50.

If framing really is this valuable we probably should go to the automated zone sooner than later if HP umps can essentially be tricked in to calling or not calling strikes and that outcome affects win totals this much.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby cl smooth » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:30 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:If you had a button you could push right now that would guarantee the Cubs sweep their way to winning the WS this year, but it would also ensure that we must endure President Trump for at least 4 years, WOULD YOU PUSH IT?

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do-over?

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:37 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1095772768220692480

Remember when projections (not necessarily PECOTA but others) had the Cubs winning like 105 games a couple of years ago?


pecota is big on framing right? i bet if we swapped out contreras for grandal we'd just to first


Sort of. Their framing boner says the Brewers are ~two wins above average and the Cubs are ~two wins below. That still leaves a five game gap between the Cubs and Brewers. The two bigger factors are that BP thinks the Cubs' defense is pretty much exactly average outside of Framing, and that it hates the rotation (projecting our 5 guys for 8 total WAR). The latter IMO is harsh but reasonable, while I can't even really devil's advocate my way to the former.

I think generally and more simply the system does not like the Cubs' core players. It projected the team at 89 wins last year going into the year. And while the team underachieved it a) still cleared that bar by six games and b) that modest projection wasn't worried about KB, Darvish, or Quintana, who are the guys who drove the team to underachieve.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Regular Show » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:43 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1095772768220692480

Remember when projections (not necessarily PECOTA but others) had the Cubs winning like 105 games a couple of years ago?


pecota is big on framing right? i bet if we swapped out contreras for grandal we'd just to first


If framing really is this valuable we probably should go to the automated zone sooner than later if HP umps can essentially be tricked in to calling or not calling strikes and that outcome affects win totals this much.


I don't think framing really affects win totals that much and that people overstate how good/bad any catcher is at this "skill".

Now, are HP umps tricked into calling balls as strikes? Do they mess up on pitches low and/or beneath the strike zone? Do they let the count affect whether to call the next pitch a ball/strike?

Obviously, the answer is yes and everyone horsefeathering knows this. I'm really pissed that of all the changes they're thinking of making (universal DH, lowering/pushing back the mound, expanded rosters, etc.) no one wants to even bring up an exploratory study on implementing an automated strike zone.

horsefeathers you Rob Manfred and not wanting to get rid of the "human element". Don't give me that BS about the technology not being good enough.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:01 am



Did we know that Edward's had the best fastball spin rate in baseball? Also, does Carl not have a dedicated thread?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:05 am

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/mattkellyMLB/status/1096243006989107200?s=19

Did we know that Edward's had the best fastball spin rate in baseball? Also, does Carl not have a dedicated thread?

I didn’t know about his spin rates, but I guess it makes sense since his numbers/effectiveness of his FB in the zone always rates as one of the best.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:08 am

I didn’t know the specifics but “knew” Edwards’ fastball was a badass pitch. I consider him a breakout candidate
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:48 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:I didn’t know the specifics but “knew” Edwards’ fastball was a badass pitch. I consider him a breakout candidate

Is a guy with a career 3.12 FIP and back to back 1 WAR seasons out of the pen allowed to "breakout?"
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:06 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:I didn’t know the specifics but “knew” Edwards’ fastball was a badass pitch. I consider him a breakout candidate

Is a guy with a career 3.12 FIP and back to back 1 WAR seasons out of the pen allowed to "breakout?"


As a general template I’m looking at David Robertson’s 2011
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