How much is 1 WAR worth?

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How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:28 am

Because our opening day starting rotation right now is clocking in at $27.8 mil per war.

Thankfully Hendricks has righted the ship a little recently because his per dollar (team-leading 1.5 WAR for rotation-cheapest $4.17 mil) really skews the figures.

Because without him we'd be paying nearly $57mil/pitching WAR.

what im saying is we're horsefeathers
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:40 am

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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:42 am

The rotation pretty much all sucking when it was supposed to be our strength is one of the strangest things ever to me
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:47 am

actually the rotation is good
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby treebird » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:58 am

UMFan83 wrote:The rotation pretty much all sucking when it was supposed to be our strength is one of the strangest things ever to me


pitchers ever doing worse than expected should never be a huge shock. we were on the good end of randomness for a while, and now we are on the bad end. it sucks, but the main takeaway should always be thank you baseball gods for making the pitching do stuff right long enough to let us win once.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:02 am

The good news is that this is exactly what happened to Epstein in Boston and they still got another WS win.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:17 am

UMFan83 wrote:The rotation pretty much all sucking when it was supposed to be our strength is one of the strangest things ever to me


looking back it's funny how much of this we could have at least squinted and seen coming

Lester is old and has tons of tread on his tires, so the possibility was always there for the wheels to come off quickly (two car metaphors.) Like he's always been such a hoss that I never would have called it, but we all had to be aware the possibility was there.

Hendricks was a finesse guy throwing 85 mph in his prime, so the odds of locking him in as a 4 WAR guy forever was unlikely.

Darvish is a good pitcher and I won't deny that (and if he comes back healthy I think he'll probably be our best SP down the stretch) BUT this offseason when we went through that couple weeks where he was just sitting there on the market and we thought "well you know maybe we won't get him," I really did find solace in the fact that at least you could look back and see him getting completely shelled in the WS and convince yourself you don't want that guy on your team for 5 years.

Chatwood .... was just never good lol. I mean like you had to go all the way to spin rate before you could find a metric in his favor.

Quintana is the real weird one, but a bunch of 200 IP seasons in a row is always a red flag.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Derwood » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:25 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Image


We already have one Duke Silver, you don't need to make it two
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:27 am

We knew that this could happen, we were just in a little bit of euphoric denial. Pitchers are weird and Epstein especially does not really understand them, especially in comparison to the ridiculous track record this front office has in developing position players.

It's just hard not to say "maybe this is the new normal" when you go through a boom economy, or the baseball equivalent where none of your pitchers gets a major arm injury three years running and some rando you scrape out of Baltimore becomes late-90s Pedro for two years.

Right now, this is our version of the 2006 Red Sox, and we're still heavy favorites to win the division. If we can scrape through this without any harm done, that's an amazing testament to the foundation this team has. And just like not every year was going to be 2016, we'll probably have some good years coming up.

Heck, as bad as they've been, they could flip a switch tomorrow or better yet in 7 weeks. Pitchers are weird cuts both ways.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:30 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:We knew that this could happen, we were just in a little bit of euphoric denial. Pitchers are weird and Epstein especially does not really understand them, especially in comparison to the ridiculous track record this front office has in developing position players.

It's just hard not to say "maybe this is the new normal" when you go through a boom economy, or the baseball equivalent where none of your pitchers gets a major arm injury three years running and some rando you scrape out of Baltimore becomes late-90s Pedro for two years.

Right now, this is our version of the 2006 Red Sox, and we're still heavy favorites to win the division. If we can scrape through this without any harm done, that's an amazing testament to the foundation this team has. And just like not every year was going to be 2016, we'll probably have some good years coming up.

Heck, as bad as they've been, they could flip a switch tomorrow or better yet in 7 weeks. Pitchers are weird cuts both ways.


yep. hendricks has shown signs of life and as ass as Lester has been, he's still lester, maybe there's some tweak in there that gets him going. Quintana could wake up and Darvish could come back good and all of a sudden we have 4 good starters again.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:34 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:We knew that this could happen, we were just in a little bit of euphoric denial. Pitchers are weird and Epstein especially does not really understand them, especially in comparison to the ridiculous track record this front office has in developing position players.

It's just hard not to say "maybe this is the new normal" when you go through a boom economy, or the baseball equivalent where none of your pitchers gets a major arm injury three years running and some rando you scrape out of Baltimore becomes late-90s Pedro for two years.

Right now, this is our version of the 2006 Red Sox, and we're still heavy favorites to win the division. If we can scrape through this without any harm done, that's an amazing testament to the foundation this team has. And just like not every year was going to be 2016, we'll probably have some good years coming up.

Heck, as bad as they've been, they could flip a switch tomorrow or better yet in 7 weeks. Pitchers are weird cuts both ways.


now THIS is how you optimism
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:42 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:We knew that this could happen, we were just in a little bit of euphoric denial. Pitchers are weird and Epstein especially does not really understand them, especially in comparison to the ridiculous track record this front office has in developing position players.

It's just hard not to say "maybe this is the new normal" when you go through a boom economy, or the baseball equivalent where none of your pitchers gets a major arm injury three years running and some rando you scrape out of Baltimore becomes late-90s Pedro for two years.

Right now, this is our version of the 2006 Red Sox, and we're still heavy favorites to win the division. If we can scrape through this without any harm done, that's an amazing testament to the foundation this team has. And just like not every year was going to be 2016, we'll probably have some good years coming up.

Heck, as bad as they've been, they could flip a switch tomorrow or better yet in 7 weeks. Pitchers are weird cuts both ways.


Funny that you used 2006 Red Sox. On Aug 11 they were 66-48 and 0.5 out of a playoff spot. They finished 86-76 and way out of the playoffs.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby soccer10k » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:03 am

UMFan83 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:We knew that this could happen, we were just in a little bit of euphoric denial. Pitchers are weird and Epstein especially does not really understand them, especially in comparison to the ridiculous track record this front office has in developing position players.

It's just hard not to say "maybe this is the new normal" when you go through a boom economy, or the baseball equivalent where none of your pitchers gets a major arm injury three years running and some rando you scrape out of Baltimore becomes late-90s Pedro for two years.

Right now, this is our version of the 2006 Red Sox, and we're still heavy favorites to win the division. If we can scrape through this without any harm done, that's an amazing testament to the foundation this team has. And just like not every year was going to be 2016, we'll probably have some good years coming up.

Heck, as bad as they've been, they could flip a switch tomorrow or better yet in 7 weeks. Pitchers are weird cuts both ways.


Funny that you used 2006 Red Sox. On Aug 11 they were 66-48 and 0.5 out of a playoff spot. They finished 86-76 and way out of the playoffs.


To be fair on that last point, there wasn’t a second wild card then and it might only take 88 wins for the second wild card. On pace, right now the second wild cards are Milwaukee (90.5 wins) and Atlanta (89.5 wins).

Each division has 3 decent teams that all have a lot of H2H games left so that’s unlikely to change much.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby r_mack » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:15 am

I've never looked or cared about pitching WAR. Just look at the advanced stats (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), or don't in the case of the Cubs
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:41 am

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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:06 am

UMFan83 wrote:The rotation pretty much all sucking when it was supposed to be our strength is one of the strangest things ever to me


I really don't think the rotation was supposed to be our strength. Position players are more important. There are more of them. They play everyday. They are important to scoring runs and preventing them. We are filthy with good position players.

Our rotation was supposed to be good, but this wasn't impossible to foresee. Some guys already dropped off last year. There are a lot of innings and long, grueling years extended into the post-season on some of these arms. Pitching is fickle as it is. The attrition rate of pitchers is always something to fear. This is why we built through the draft with hitting.

You can build a good rotation but you never really know.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:10 am

Also, the 2006 Red Sox finished with a negative run differential and accrued the 22nd-highest position player WAR. We're not the 2006 Red Sox.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:16 am

Duke Silver wrote:Also, the 2006 Red Sox finished with a negative run differential and accrued the 22nd-highest position player WAR. We're not the 2006 Red Sox.


On Sunday, August 13, 2006, the Red Sox were 20 games over .500 with a +65 run differential and the second-best offense in baseball.

But the main point of comparison is that they had an expensive starting rotation that completely and en masse crapped the bed.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:07 am

Here's my honest assessment of our pitching right now.

We need Darvish back and we need him to pitch well. It would be huge. We obviously shouldn't count on it and we all should probably plan for him to never throw another pitch for the 2018 Cubs. But one can hope.

Kyle Hendricks is completely fine. I trust him with my life. He's gotten off to slow starts before. He even did in 2016. Since the start of July, he's been really good. He was having a ton of problems with his K/BB and HR. He's not anymore. In his last 8 starts he has a 45/5 K/BB and has only given up 4 homers. His overall numbers (and mainly his periphs) are starting to come back to where they should be. His xFIP is at 3.88. Kyle is also a legitimate FIP-beater because of all the weak contact he induces.

The one thing that is still out of whack is his HR rate. He's probably been a little unlucky there. Of 119 pitchers with at least 250 batted balls, he has the 8th lowest average exit velocity at 85.4 mph. For reference, he was 3rd-lowest last year at 83.9 mph and 8th-lowest in 2016 at 85.8 mph. The one problem he's faced is that that batters are hitting the ball harder when they get it in the air. His FB/LD avg. exit velocity is 91.8 mph this year, which ranks 32nd. In 2016, he was at 90.2 mph, which ranked 11th. Hendricks also ranks 57th in Barrels/PA. Last year he ranked 21st. In 2016, he ranked 8th. He also ranks 40th in avg. FB/LD distance. These things correlate very strongly to HR rates. Hendricks has the 11th worst HR/FB of all qualified starters. There's no reason for that to be the case. He hasn't been hit very hard. A few home runs in such a small sample will throws things out of whack.

Kyle is good. He's the Game 1 starter. The rest of the guys suck.

Montgomery has been fine and he's pitched well enough. We'd probably not want him starting in the playoffs if there are other viable options, but he'd suffice.

Jon is getting old. He's not the same pitcher and won't be again. Right now he looks really bad and we can't count on him. If he gets back to where he was at the start of the season -- a 4.50 FIP-type of pitcher -- he could probably grind his way to around a 4.00 ERA with our defense. But that seems far-fetched right now. Cross him off the list for now.

I've pretty much lost hope of Quintana turning it around this year, also. I think he'll be better next year if he gets some time off to rest and get his body right and work on some things. Sometimes guys just have bad years. His overall outlook has dropped a lot. But I think he can still be a viable starter in the future for us. For now... not so much.

I don't know what to expect with Hamels. He's looked fine in his two starts with us. His periphs have been solid outside of his HR rate. Maybe pitching in Texas was holding him back. Maybe he's just toast. We'll have to wait and see. Until proven otherwise, he also sucks.

The hope is that two of Q/Jon/Hamels find whatever they are lacking right now and can be trusted to start post-season games. Right now, it's probably Q and Hamels, and Q is a quick hook. You hope that Kyle can start and maybe give you 6 innings. The others you hope can go 4-5 while only allowing about 2 runs with the help of our defense. If they get in trouble in the 2nd, they're coming out. You'd basically be piggybacking Chavez with whatever starter decides to horsefeathers the bed.

We are going to bullpen the horsefeathers out of the playoffs. We are deep in the pen. We have good arms at the back-end and semi-reliable guys throughout. I'd hope we add another pitcher or two by the end of the month if things don't improve. If we are able to move Monty back to the pen and Smyly gives us something, even better. The more multi-inning options, the better off we'll be.

This is what we've done all year, to an extent, to the tune of a 67-49 record. We have a really good offense. They run the bases well. They play great defense. And the bullpen has been really solid. We'd crank the bullpen part into overdrive. There are more days off. There's nothing to hold guys back and rest them for. It's full bullpening. It can work. You just hope that one or two of the horsefeathers starters randomly gave us 5-6 solid innings at some point -- which isn't out of the realm of possibility.

We've been good in spite of our starting pitching in the regular season. We also can be in the playoffs.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:35 pm

Since the all-star game Lester is 0-3 with a 10.32 ERA and a *gulp* 1.205 OPS against
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Derwood » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:00 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Since the all-star game Lester is 0-3 with a 10.32 ERA and a *gulp* 1.205 OPS against


Yeah but we're in first place so...
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:20 pm

What is it even good for?

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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Derwood » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:36 pm

Let's talk bigger picture:

The Cubs' TOTAL fWAR (hitting and pitching) is 29.7

By comparison:

Astros; 41.7
Red Sox: 41.6
Yankees: 40.9
Indians: 36.7
Dodgers: 33.0
A's: 30.1
Braves: 28.9
Cardinals: 28.5
Brewers: 27.8

Is team fWAR the be all end all? Of course not. But despite being in first place, most of the other division leaders are having far better individual seasons from their key players
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby squally1313 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:24 pm

This is probably getting too cute in trying to figure out what happened to Lester, but I feel like there were at least 5-7 starts he made in April/May/June where he had to follow Chatwood (who was sometimes following Darvish during his four innings a start stretch) and he took the mound knowing the bullpen was shot and it was on him to throw as long as he could. At this point in his career, he's someone who needs to be on a quick hook all season so that he's got bullets left come September and October. Instead, he went through a 6 game stretch where he threw 104/90/107/104/102/119 pitches. There's a debate on much we needed it at the time, but this was probably Lester's most taxing first half by far. He got by on some luck and just him being BDJ, but we're seeing the effects of it now.

Of course, it could just be that he's old and pitching is dumb.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby gobigred » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:28 pm

there is no guarantee to even make the playoffs...i get that no one in the NL is very good but at the same time if a couple of teams get hot the Cubs can quickly go from the top to the outside looking in
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