How much is 1 WAR worth?

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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby squally1313 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:42 pm

gobigred wrote:there is no guarantee to even make the playoffs...i get that no one in the NL is very good but at the same time if a couple of teams get hot the Cubs can quickly go from the top to the outside looking in


I get the 'anything can happen' mentality, and trust me, I'd much rather be 15 games up. But right now Fangraphs has us at 96% to make the playoffs. For as much as we've 'sucked' in the second half, the Brewers have made up all of a half game in 3 weeks. There's far more evidence that says we should be start playing better than there is for pretty much every other team we'd have to worry about. It's not locked up, but we'd be the favorites if everyone was starting from the same spot. Giving us a head start makes it even more likely.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:15 pm

squally1313 wrote:There's far more evidence that says we should be start playing better than there is for pretty much every other team we'd have to worry about.


That seems to be a more debatable point now that the season is hinged on critical injuries and a truly terrible starting rotation.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby squally1313 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:20 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:There's far more evidence that says we should be start playing better than there is for pretty much every other team we'd have to worry about.


That seems to be a more debatable point now that the season is hinged on critical injuries and a truly terrible starting rotation.


You could also use those words to describe Milwaukee. I'll take the 2 game lead and the superior talent elsewhere.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:13 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:There's far more evidence that says we should be start playing better than there is for pretty much every other team we'd have to worry about.


That seems to be a more debatable point now that the season is hinged on critical injuries and a truly terrible starting rotation.


You could also use those words to describe Milwaukee. I'll take the 2 game lead and the superior talent elsewhere.


I really don't care about Milwaukee; when I saw "the season" I'm talking about the end result in the playoffs, not whether or not they make it. I think they're facing a significant uphill climb for the season to not end up being a relative disappointment along those lines just do to where they've ended up due to health and the state of the starting rotation. The superior talent is pretty lopsided in regards to being able to compensate for the latter, so this ongoing hand-waving that essentially amounts to, "because of the team they have on paper and the record they have to this point they'll just figure it out somehow," rings relatively hollow given how late it is in the season, the injuries they're dealing with, how bad the starting rotation is and how bad the offense has performed for much of the second half. The list of things that they'll apparently just overcome because they should keeps getting longer as the season keeps getting shorter.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Bull » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:32 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
That seems to be a more debatable point now that the season is hinged on critical injuries and a truly terrible starting rotation.


You could also use those words to describe Milwaukee. I'll take the 2 game lead and the superior talent elsewhere.


I really don't care about Milwaukee; when I saw "the season" I'm talking about the end result in the playoffs, not whether or not they make it.

This is kind of the point here. We have reached them point where playoffs are a given, making it to the NLCS is a very familiar place and only a WS appearance can be looked at as “success.” For me, that’s a pretty good place to be. If you genuinely believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot, you’re pretty happy this year. They may not have the talent to walk into the playoffs favoured, but they are walking in. And with this monster offends, anything can happen.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby David » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:38 pm

Bull wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
You could also use those words to describe Milwaukee. I'll take the 2 game lead and the superior talent elsewhere.


I really don't care about Milwaukee; when I saw "the season" I'm talking about the end result in the playoffs, not whether or not they make it.

This is kind of the point here. We have reached them point where playoffs are a given, making it to the NLCS is a very familiar place and only a WS appearance can be looked at as “success.” For me, that’s a pretty good place to be. If you genuinely believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot, you’re pretty happy this year. They may not have the talent to walk into the playoffs favoured, but they are walking in. And with this monster offends, anything can happen.


that's like saying "if you genuinely believe the earth is a sphere"

so, yeah, just make the playoffs, which they probably will
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:45 pm

Bull wrote:If you genuinely believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot


I think there's a pretty big middle ground between, "anything can happen between between 'typical' playoff teams," and, "a good team that unfortunately kind of hit the wall due to injuries and an imploding starting rotation probably has a better shot of a rough go of it in the playoffs." Again, just boiling down to, "BUT LOOK AT THEIR RECORD," and, "anything can happen in the playoffs" feels more like handwaving away how the team is actually performing right now and what they're dealing with right now as the season winds down.

I would really be surprised if they didn't make the playoffs, but I'm also not really expecting them to do much in the playoffs barring Bryant and at least one other starting pitcher really roaring back as themselves.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:17 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Since the all-star game Lester is 0-3 with a 10.32 ERA and a *gulp* 1.205 OPS against

stupid horsefeathering home run derby
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby CubinNY » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:32 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Bull wrote:If you genuinely believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot


I think there's a pretty big middle ground between, "anything can happen between between 'typical' playoff teams," and, "a good team that unfortunately kind of hit the wall due to injuries and an imploding starting rotation probably has a better shot of a rough go of it in the playoffs." Again, just boiling down to, "BUT LOOK AT THEIR RECORD," and, "anything can happen in the playoffs" feels more like handwaving away how the team is actually performing right now and what they're dealing with right now as the season winds down.

I would really be surprised if they didn't make the playoffs, but I'm also not really expecting them to do much in the playoffs barring Bryant and at least one other starting pitcher really roaring back as themselves.

I think these are called "the dog days of summer" for a reason. I'd rather see Joe give a guy like Lester short outings on purpose or a skip in the rotation, but it would be a lot easier if the Brewers would fade away to 7 or more back.

I've worried about the SP since Chatwood couldn't harness his stuff in April. Darvish could still be tipping pitches and injured for all we know. Whatever happens, I'm enjoying the hell out of this season.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:39 pm

What I’m really worried about is that 23 days in a row without an off day stretch that starts in a week
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:43 pm

UMFan83 wrote:What I’m really worried about is that 23 days in a row without an off day stretch that starts in a week

It’s a bit of a relief rosters expand in the middle of it and Darvish could be back around expansion time too
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:18 pm

gobigred wrote:there is no guarantee to even make the playoffs...i get that no one in the NL is very good but at the same time if a couple of teams get hot the Cubs can quickly go from the top to the outside looking in

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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby stitchface » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:34 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Bull wrote:If you genuinely believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot


I think there's a pretty big middle ground between, "anything can happen between between 'typical' playoff teams," and, "a good team that unfortunately kind of hit the wall due to injuries and an imploding starting rotation probably has a better shot of a rough go of it in the playoffs." Again, just boiling down to, "BUT LOOK AT THEIR RECORD," and, "anything can happen in the playoffs" feels more like handwaving away how the team is actually performing right now and what they're dealing with right now as the season winds down.

I would really be surprised if they didn't make the playoffs, but I'm also not really expecting them to do much in the playoffs barring Bryant and at least one other starting pitcher really roaring back as themselves.

I think these are called "the dog days of summer" for a reason. I'd rather see Joe give a guy like Lester short outings on purpose or a skip in the rotation, but it would be a lot easier if the Brewers would fade away to 7 or more back.

I've worried about the SP since Chatwood couldn't harness his stuff in April. Darvish could still be tipping pitches and injured for all we know. Whatever happens, I'm enjoying the hell out of this season.


the Brewers have done their part of fading away . . .
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Banedon » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:57 pm

UMFan83 wrote:What I’m really worried about is that 23 days in a row without an off day stretch that starts in a week


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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby squally1313 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:27 pm

We're going to make the playoffs (which a majority of teams don't), and we're probably going to lose in the playoffs, because that's what most teams do. The Red Sox might be the best team in history, and I'd give them like a 20% chance to win, and definitely less than 50% to make it to the World Series, which seems to somehow be the expectations around here now.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby mul21 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:30 pm

Derwood wrote:Let's talk bigger picture:

The Cubs' TOTAL fWAR (hitting and pitching) is 29.7

By comparison:

Astros; 41.7
Red Sox: 41.6
Yankees: 40.9
Indians: 36.7
Dodgers: 33.0
A's: 30.1
Braves: 28.9
Cardinals: 28.5
Brewers: 27.8

Is team fWAR the be all end all? Of course not. But despite being in first place, most of the other division leaders are having far better individual seasons from their key players


How many of those teams are missing an MVP, a 5 win pitcher, and their closer for like half the season or more? The Cubs are fine if the pitching can be even decent the rest of the way and like Duke said, bullpen the horsefeathers out of the playoffs for the best chance.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby David » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:34 pm

squally1313 wrote:We're going to make the playoffs (which a majority of teams don't), and we're probably going to lose in the playoffs, because that's what most teams do. The Red Sox might be the best team in history, and I'd give them like a 20% chance to win, and definitely less than 50% to make it to the World Series, which seems to somehow be the expectations around here now.


Not sure I'd even put it that high.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:38 pm

538 currently has them at 26% to win the WS, which seems bonkers. I always thought anything really higher than 15% during the regular season was really kinda pointless.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby squally1313 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:59 pm

Yeah, I posted that and then looked at the Fangraphs odds, which is weirdly down on the Red Sox. Has them playing the rest of the year at a .585 clip, which is way below the Astros (.635), Indians (.632), Yankees (.626), and Dodgers (.597). Have them essentially on par with the Nationals (.581). We're at .569. They've got the Astros as the WS favorites at 23.7%, Red Sox at 15.3%, Cubs at 10.2%.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby Bertz » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:00 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:538 currently has them at 26% to win the WS, which seems bonkers. I always thought anything really higher than 15% during the regular season was really kinda pointless.


It is. Just running some quick numbers, if you were favored in every single playoff game 57/43, you'd have a 26.6% chance of winning it all. IMO there's no team that is that much stronger than their playoff competition.

I think a dominant team, like the '16 Cubs or this year's Sox, is probably about 20% likely to win it all, but I don't think anything more than that is reasonable.
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Re: How much is 1 WAR worth?

Postby David » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:03 pm

squally1313 wrote:Yeah, I posted that and then looked at the Fangraphs odds, which is weirdly down on the Red Sox. Has them playing the rest of the year at a .585 clip, which is way below the Astros (.635), Indians (.632), Yankees (.626), and Dodgers (.597). Have them essentially on par with the Nationals (.581). We're at .569. They've got the Astros as the WS favorites at 23.7%, Red Sox at 15.3%, Cubs at 10.2%.


That's because it's based on the projection models.

If you go by season to date stats, they have the Red Sox at 22.2%, which is the highest of any team. Astros second at 19.9%.

On principle alone, I think anything much higher than 15% is too high.
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