The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Bull » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:20 pm

I agree with the “if it ain’t broke” sentiment. I don’t see a need for sweeping changes. If you can upgrade quality cheaply (in terms of assets not necessarily cash) do it. Trying not to give up draft picks is a priority (a secondary priority to adding a generational talent).

I think it’s hilarious how many have bemoaned the failures of this 95 win team. A handful of minor moves takes this from an elite team to a team that continues to be so so elite it can weather the loss of Its number 2 pitcher, MVP caliber 3Rd baseman and closer for several months and still win 95 games.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:05 pm

I think the "if it aint broke dont fix it" plan looks fine now but once we get back to the World Series and get our butts kicked by the Astros or Red Sox we will all be here agreeing that we need Bryce and more
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Thed Hoyerstein » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:28 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:I think the "if it aint broke dont fix it" plan looks fine now but once we get back to the World Series and get our butts kicked by the Astros or Red Sox we will all be here agreeing that we need Bryce and more


good thing Theo isn't Jim Hendry
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:47 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:I think the "if it aint broke dont fix it" plan looks fine now


Literally nobody here is saying that.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:11 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:I think the "if it aint broke dont fix it" plan looks fine now


Literally nobody here is saying that.

Even I wasn't saying that when I posted it.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:04 pm

We need at least one starting pitcher. A good one, at that. We need multiple relief arms. And I think.we need a backup C, that's defensive minded. That's what I think we actually NEED.

But, adding a superstar bat, allows us tradeable equity we currently don't have and is our best shot at getting better.

I really wish the Red Sox had gone over the top end of the LT. Or multiple teams give the impression they would for the right guys this year. If so, it's not like we can't afford it. I just don't see us being the team that gives everyone else the proverbial finger. But damn, it'd be nice if we did.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:20 am

My prejudice against TJ’d arms is strong but Michael Fulmer is very cheap and they have a reliever (Jimenez) that has a pretty high ceiling for a reliever.

Any interest?

As far as the offseason itself - I think we see the most active offseason since 2015, mostly trades, and go full super team (Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, and a bunch of guys Cubs fans know really well and like isn’t that, at least not all the way). Hence my Sunday nonsense and suggesting a TJ guy like Fulmer, really need to be on another level if they want to do this Cubs network thing
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:41 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:I think the "if it aint broke dont fix it" plan looks fine now


Literally nobody here is saying that.


Literally the post made before mine (that I was responding to) begins with this:

I agree with the “if it ain’t broke” sentiment. I don’t see a need for sweeping changes.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:45 am

I was assuming the dude was right talking about Tom's crazy hodgepodge approach to "streamlining the team" via trades or whatever the horsefeathers that was immediately preceding his post.

Because if he's talking about not signing someone like Harper if they can, well, that's just bonkers.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Bull » Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:26 pm

Tim wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:I think the "if it aint broke dont fix it" plan looks fine now


Literally nobody here is saying that.

Even I wasn't saying that when I posted it.


Even I said that not losing draft picks is a secondary priority to adding a generational talent. I feel like Harper was pretty heavily implied. If you can do that, you do it.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Bull » Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:31 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I was assuming the dude was right talking about Tom's crazy hodgepodge approach to "streamlining the team" via trades or whatever the horsefeathers that was immediately preceding his post.

Because if he's talking about not signing someone like Harper if they can, well, that's just bonkers.


Definitely, my post clearly says that signing a generational talent should be a priority (actually I said higher priority than not losing draft picks). The “if it’s not broke sentiment” meant they shouldn’t intentionally try to create new holes.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Old Style » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:02 pm

Request for staff: Can we make "literally" a dirty word for the filter to catch & remove since too many people insist on overusing the word these days?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:37 pm

If the Rockies are frustrated with Jon Gray this offseason I would like the Cubs to be in on him this offseason. If they pull that off also locate and sign Appel for the troll
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:30 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:If the Rockies are frustrated with Jon Gray this offseason I would like the Cubs to be in on him this offseason. If they pull that off also locate and sign Appel for the troll

Send them the Almora reel of all those diving catches
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:01 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:If the Rockies are frustrated with Jon Gray this offseason I would like the Cubs to be in on him this offseason. If they pull that off also locate and sign Appel for the troll

Send them the Almora reel of all those diving catches


Perfect timing, they’re about to lose LeMahieu* to FA and can use a cheap RH slappy mcslapperstein for the bottom of the lineup.

*Actually a LeMahieu fan, fun defensive player. Almora wishes he was as cool
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:47 am

-- this post has been replaced by one later in the thread with less Eovaldi --
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:54 am

The FA RP market is so deep I really have no interest in spending the money it would require on Kimbrel. Eovaldi seems like a ticking time bomb too, I’d rather just exercise the Hamels option if we’re spending on SPs. If it blows up, it’s only 1 year.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:32 am

I really agree on Kimbrel and the reasons to sign him. Also Harper but as a reliever/closer, he kinda falls into being an available generational talent. Harper’s a move that I really think triggers a couple awesome surprises and Kimbrel falls into that for me.

I’d rather trade Russell for a SP, might be some loud talents available this offseason too, than a reliever. OTOH if the arm is loud enough then figure out a role under Kimbrel among Edwards and friends.

Meh on paying Wilson but it makes sense in that scenario. Eovaldi might be a fun Chavez replacement and maybe someone can figure out why he’s thriving with multiple TJs and whatever else. OTOH maybe the TJ’d Darvish and Chatwood moves filled the pre-injured FA arms quota

Could see them bringing in Jose Iglesias or that Hechhevaria guy as defensive sub candidates at least for ST on MiL deals. With Baez promoted and Russell maybe traded it makes sense to get a glove on the bench, Iglesias has been a competent enough hitter at points
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:52 am

I was probably overthinking it on Eovaldi.

Honestly, we're fine with a three man competition between Monty, Smyly and Chatwood for the final rotation spot. If Chatwood can figure it out, he really brings a heck of a lot to the table. Monty has proven this season that he's a perfectly capable rotation option. Smyly is rarely healthy, but pretty effective when he is. We should have some decent backup plans available at Iowa this coming year, too.

Save the money on paying Eovaldi and we should be able to stay under the max tax.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:02 am

Okay, this would be a much more fun approach (minus Eovaldi this time):

Exercise options on:

- Quintana
- Strop

Trade:

- Duensing, Kintzler for whatever savings can be had (assume we can save $2M while paying the rest) for lottery tickets
- LaStella for relief prospect?
- Russell for the best pre-arb reliever that can be had (should be pretty good). For the sake of argument, since Philly has really struggled getting Crawford to produce, I'll go with Seranthony Dominguez. This also saves $4-5M

Sign:

- Bryce Harper
- Craig Kimbrel
- Justin Wilson


Lineup: Contreras / Rizzo / Zobrist / Baez / Bryant / Schwarber / Heyward / Harper
Bench: Happ / Almora / Caratini / Bote
Rotation: Darvish / Lester / Hendricks / Quintana / Smyly
Swing: Monty / Chatwood
Bullpen: Kimbrel / Morrow / Strop / Dominguez / Edwards / Cishek / Wilson
Shuttle: Maples / Mekkes / Webster / Rosario / Norwood / Alzolay / etc

Okay, so let's talk about the SP first - while I really appreciate what we've gotten from Hamels, I am not sure about committing $20M to him next year. And even though it shouldn't really matter, I feel like we have too many similar pitchers in Lester, Hamels & Quintana. We'll have a three way competition in spring training between Smyly, Monty and Chatwood for the final rotation spot. I'll go with Smyly actually being healthy out of ST and winning the job to start the year. The other two give us solid backup plans along with the parade of depth guys we're building in AA & AAA.

Harper is a no brainer, of course. When you have a chance to add a generational talent, you do it.

Trading Russell isn't as much about not believing in him as it is maximizing value. I strongly believe that he is who has shown himself to be - a 3-4 win player on an annual basis. However, after signing Harper we really need to trade one of the young guys and I think Russell makes sense. For the return, I have finally bought into the value of shut down relievers and I want one that has proven himself in MLB, but is still well pre-arb. Just for the idea of a return, I threw Seranthony Dominguez out there. JP Crawford has really struggled in the bigs so far and is nowhere near as good defensively as Russell. Philly has money to spend, so Russell's increasing costs shouldn't bother them that much and they'll still get three years of control. Meanwhile Dominguez has broken into the majors in a big way in 2018 and still has six years of control remaining.

On a side note, we may need to also sign a backup SS. If only Short had made a bit more contact and hit for a bit more average this year I'd be more willing to roll with him at Iowa and an occasional call-up to give Javy a blow.

To complete the team, we overload the pen. Kimbrel will be expensive as hell, but he's been incredibly durable, hasn't shown many signs of decline and is a force at the end of games. Let's stop messing around with it and just sign him to be the man. Wilson has shown himself to be reliable in the second half of this year and provides some left handed heat from the pen. The list above looks light on lefties, but is bolstered by Monty / Smyly. Not to mention that there's a bunch of guys on that list that are tough on both lefties and righties. I'll just count on Morrow spending a lot of time on the DL during the year and we rotate other guys through there to keep guys rested as we go. I trust the front office to fit 15+ pitchers onto the 25 man roster somehow.

OF defense is questionable (at best) and there's some collapse potential in the rotation, even with the multiple backup options. But the super pen should allow the team to shorten the game and keep the starters from seeing the heart of the order too many times in the same game. With the multiple options available in Tenn & Iowa next year, we should be able to use a few phantom DL stints to get guys some rest, too.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:19 am

Also, I recognize that the smart thing to do would be to avoid paying Kimbrel for past performance. But I want a true bullpen of doom, dammit.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby davell » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:44 am

So Russell is getting non tendered. Sure, the Cubs will attempt to move him. But, it would have been a limited market before this stuff. Non-existent market now, some team will scavenge around and sign him late in the off season most likely, unfortunately might even get a bargain, based on what his abilities are(or were).

At any rate, none of this matters, we will have to address SS in the off season now......

Javy is the answer. Yet, you've got to have a backup for him. That was a huge strength for us, to have him to fill in when Russell needed a day off, or was hurt......

Assuming we don't get Manny, which....... horsefeathers, maybe this puts us squarely in the mix for him. Prior, I figured Harper was definitely the guy. Now, maybe it goes either direction?

Anyway, let's figure we get Bryce. We've got to find a relatively cheap backup SS...... Or a guy we can actually play there a decent amount, with Javy still taking lots of 2B reps......

Doubt we put a ton of funds into this, Russell was likely to make 5-6 mill. My guess is we stick in that range, considering our other needs...... So, who's out there in FA?

Asdrubal Cabrera-.264/.316/.461, 23 homers, -5 DRS in 198.1 innings at SS, -18 DRS at 2B..... So, a solid bat, not worth a horsefeathers in the field. Plus, he might get a bit more money than we'd go anyway.....

Eduardo Escobar-.268/.333/.492, 22 homers, -7 DRS in 185.2 innings at SS. Decent defensive 3B. Honestly, I had no clue this guys been this decent hitting. That said, he's not good defensively at SS, which is our primary need here.

Freddy Galvis-.240/.293/.368, 12 homers, +7 DRS in 1333 innings at SS. This guy fits what we probably want. Does he fall into the 1/5 to 1/7ish range contractually? My thinking is it's possible. Not exciting, but a decent option.

Adeiny Hechavarria-.254/.285/.348, 5 homers, +3 DRS in 668.1 innings at SS. Again, not exciting, even less so than Galvis...... But, probably a cheap option for us.

Jose Iglesias-.269/.310.389, 5 homers, +1 DRS in 1055 innings at SS. Not sure where I'd put him in this grouping, but he seems like a solid enough option.

Jordy Mercer-.249/.315/.379, 6 homers, -10 DRS in 976 innings at SS. I figure he's passable enough, for what we're looking for.

Marwin Gonzalez- .249/.322/.417, -5 DRS in 255.1 innings at SS. Decent at 2B though and has been decent at 3B as well, in the past. Obviously has versatility. Don't know his cost, but if it's under 10, I'd be completely fine with this guy. 3/24 or 3/27, maybe slightly less? No idea, but the versatility comes in handy with our group.

So, what does everyone else want? Or do you prefer going after a 2B, and just figuring Bote, Zobrist, Zack Short, and whoever the 2B addition is, can handle things......
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:52 am

davell wrote:So Russell is getting non tendered. Sure, the Cubs will attempt to move him. But, it would have been a limited market before this stuff. Non-existent market now, some team will scavenge around and sign him late in the off season most likely, unfortunately might even get a bargain, based on what his abilities are(or were).

At any rate, none of this matters, we will have to address SS in the off season now......

Javy is the answer. Yet, you've got to have a backup for him. That was a huge strength for us, to have him to fill in when Russell needed a day off, or was hurt......

Assuming we don't get Manny, which....... horsefeathers, maybe this puts us squarely in the mix for him. Prior, I figured Harper was definitely the guy. Now, maybe it goes either direction?

Anyway, let's figure we get Bryce. We've got to find a relatively cheap backup SS...... Or a guy we can actually play there a decent amount, with Javy still taking lots of 2B reps......

Doubt we put a ton of funds into this, Russell was likely to make 5-6 mill. My guess is we stick in that range, considering our other needs...... So, who's out there in FA?

Asdrubal Cabrera-.264/.316/.461, 23 homers, -5 DRS in 198.1 innings at SS, -18 DRS at 2B..... So, a solid bat, not worth a horsefeathers in the field. Plus, he might get a bit more money than we'd go anyway.....

Eduardo Escobar-.268/.333/.492, 22 homers, -7 DRS in 185.2 innings at SS. Decent defensive 3B. Honestly, I had no clue this guys been this decent hitting. That said, he's not good defensively at SS, which is our primary need here.

Freddy Galvis-.240/.293/.368, 12 homers, +7 DRS in 1333 innings at SS. This guy fits what we probably want. Does he fall into the 1/5 to 1/7ish range contractually? My thinking is it's possible. Not exciting, but a decent option.

Adeiny Hechavarria-.254/.285/.348, 5 homers, +3 DRS in 668.1 innings at SS. Again, not exciting, even less so than Galvis...... But, probably a cheap option for us.

Jose Iglesias-.269/.310.389, 5 homers, +1 DRS in 1055 innings at SS. Not sure where I'd put him in this grouping, but he seems like a solid enough option.

Jordy Mercer-.249/.315/.379, 6 homers, -10 DRS in 976 innings at SS. I figure he's passable enough, for what we're looking for.

Marwin Gonzalez- .249/.322/.417, -5 DRS in 255.1 innings at SS. Decent at 2B though and has been decent at 3B as well, in the past. Obviously has versatility. Don't know his cost, but if it's under 10, I'd be completely fine with this guy. 3/24 or 3/27, maybe slightly less? No idea, but the versatility comes in handy with our group.

So, what does everyone else want? Or do you prefer going after a 2B, and just figuring Bote, Zobrist, Zack Short, and whoever the 2B addition is, can handle things......

I think you outlined this well and agree with it and those are the clear FA. I’d probably say Galvis and Mercer are my top two choices for realistic options. Gonzalez And Escobar might get decent offers both in terms of money and more guaranteed playing time. Galvis And Mercer are pretty cemented in being career bench guys at this point. We need to add someone capable of playing SS, we can’t go in with just Javy there. I don’t want to gamble on Bote/Short being able to handle short if Javy has an injury. Maybe instead of trading Almora/Happ for a pitcher if we sign Bryce we move them for a MIF (Profar? You’d have a better idea with your prospect knowledge of cost controlled targets).....Then spend money on the RP/SP?
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:56 am

I'd still love to get Machado, but only if he's gonna play 3B.
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Re: The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

Postby soccer10k » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:11 am

I know there have been questions about Machado's defense at SS and his insistence on playing there. But how does Harper rate defensively? This year it looks like he's given away a huge chunk of his offensive value on defense. He's been worth negative dWAR on B-R in 4 of his 7 years, with one year at 0.0 and another year at 0.4. Fangraphs appears to have his defense as a negative each of the past 6 seasons.
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