Phillies sign David Robertson

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Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:42 pm



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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:45 pm

He was one of my preferred targets if we were going to spend any kind of real money on a pen arm(s). Seems like a reasonable deal and one I would’ve been fine with us doing, I even would’ve been fine with adding a few million more and a realistic/easily attainable 3rd year performance/vesting option. I think I prefer Cody Allen the most right now of available RPs.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Post Count Padder » Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:46 pm

Man I would've liked him on that deal. Been a fan of his for a long time. That's a good deal for the Phillies and he's a great fit for them.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:56 pm

That seems quite cheap
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:02 pm

Fun fact: Robertson will be the same age at the end of this deal as Kimbrel would be under a 6 year deal

Give me Kimbrel, please!
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:04 pm

Robertson will be the same age at the end of this deal as Kimbrel would be under a 6 year deal, and totally not collusion will probably result in fewer than 6. I’m liking Kimbrel more and more
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Old Style » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:05 pm

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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:10 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Fun fact: Robertson will be the same age at the end of this deal as Kimbrel would be under a 6 year deal

Give me Kimbrel, please!

No horsefeathering thank you. There are red flags all over him on any remotely reasonable deal, let alone a 6 year deal.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:29 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:No horsefeathering thank you. There are red flags all over him on any remotely reasonable deal, let alone a 6 year deal.


??? You can’t say this while proclaiming Cody Allen as the best fit reliever! Kimbrel’s waaaaaaay better with a much better arm

What are the flags? Clean arm, historically dominant track record, velocity’s in line with career, actually improved on his career fastball whiff rate last year, still a 20+% whiff guy with the slider, his “down” year including a 39% K rate and ~27% K-BB...Not to mention that, thanks to definitely no collusion, it seems unlikely he actually gets 6 years
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:51 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:No horsefeathering thank you. There are red flags all over him on any remotely reasonable deal, let alone a 6 year deal.


??? You can’t say this while proclaiming Cody Allen as the best fit reliever! Kimbrel’s waaaaaaay better with a much better arm

What are the flags? Clean arm, historically dominant track record, velocity’s in line with career, actually improved on his career fastball whiff rate last year, still a 20+% whiff guy with the slider...

I like Allen because I assume he’s only going to take 2 years and less money than Robertson just signed for and he was pretty much as good as Kimbrel recently and even though he took a step back last year his stuff remaind in line with the same for his career. His and Kimbrel’s career numbers aren’t all that different (factoring in the money difference Allen is a no brainer for me).

Kimbrel’s Ks went down and BB up last year (nearly 4.5 bb/9) over the previous 2, posted highest FIP and xFIP in his career (low 3s, which is still good but could be start of a downward trend), HR rate went way up, GB rate nearly lowest of his career and 12% below his average, he hasn’t thrown a slider since 2011 looking at his FG page (idk if that’s an error), he was shakey as hell in the playoffs, and he’ll be 31 early in the season. Going 6 years and/or big aav on Kimbrel is horsefeathering dumb. I’d rather spread that money out over multiple guys and less years.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:10 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I like Allen because I assume he’s only going to take 2 years and less money than Robertson just signed for and he was pretty much as good as Kimbrel recently and even though he took a step back last year his stuff remaind in line with the same for his career. His and Kimbrel’s career numbers aren’t all that different (factoring in the money difference Allen is a no brainer for me).

Kimbrel’s Ks went down and BB up last year (nearly 4.5 bb/9) over the previous 2, posted highest FIP and xFIP in his career (low 3s, which is still good but could be start of a downward trend), HR rate went way up, GB rate nearly lowest of his career and 12% below his average, he hasn’t thrown a slider since 2011 looking at his FG page (idk if that’s an error), he was shakey as hell in the playoffs, and he’ll be 31 early in the season. Going 6 years and/or big aav on Kimbrel is horsefeathering dumb. I’d rather spread that money out over multiple guys and less years.


- Allen being “pretty much as good” as Kimbrel is a really really nice way of saying he wasn’t as good as the worst Kimbrel even at Allen’s absolute best, back in 2015

- Other arm health indicators like velocity and swinging strikes mitigate long term concern over the rise in walk rate. Seems closer to variance than a dramatic loss of skill. Plus a rise in walk rate has happened before (2016), worse even, only to be followed with another monster season

- He swapped the grounders for popups (20% IFFB in 2018) moreso than homeruns

- Kimbrel’s career in the playoffs: 20 IP / 25 Ks / 14 Hs / 2 HRs...Not his typical regular season level of dominance but hardly a terrifying base to work with

- They’ve already spread money out and built a deep support crew in the pen. The need is most for a guy who is much more reliable and durable than Morrow at the end. A guy like Allen, who really has been slipping for multiple years now, doesn’t really fit that - the bullpen is full of Allen equivalents at this point

- Yeah, I see Brooks has his breaking ball listed as a knuckle curve.

Overall he seems like a souped up, younger Robertson, consistent and healthy fastball/curve pitchers that pile up Ks and popups
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:49 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I like Allen because I assume he’s only going to take 2 years and less money than Robertson just signed for and he was pretty much as good as Kimbrel recently and even though he took a step back last year his stuff remaind in line with the same for his career. His and Kimbrel’s career numbers aren’t all that different (factoring in the money difference Allen is a no brainer for me).

Kimbrel’s Ks went down and BB up last year (nearly 4.5 bb/9) over the previous 2, posted highest FIP and xFIP in his career (low 3s, which is still good but could be start of a downward trend), HR rate went way up, GB rate nearly lowest of his career and 12% below his average, he hasn’t thrown a slider since 2011 looking at his FG page (idk if that’s an error), he was shakey as hell in the playoffs, and he’ll be 31 early in the season. Going 6 years and/or big aav on Kimbrel is horsefeathering dumb. I’d rather spread that money out over multiple guys and less years.


- Allen being “pretty much as good” as Kimbrel is a really really nice way of saying he wasn’t as good as the worst Kimbrel even at Allen’s absolute best, back in 2015

- Other arm health indicators like velocity and swinging strikes mitigate long term concern over the rise in walk rate. Seems closer to variance than a dramatic loss of skill. Plus a rise in walk rate has happened before (2016), worse even, only to be followed with another monster season

- He swapped the grounders for popups (20% IFFB in 2018) moreso than homeruns

- Kimbrel’s career in the playoffs: 20 IP / 25 Ks / 14 Hs / 2 HRs...Not his typical regular season level of dominance but hardly a terrifying base to work with

- They’ve already spread money out and built a deep support crew in the pen. The need is most for a guy who is much more reliable and durable than Morrow at the end. A guy like Allen, who really has been slipping for multiple years now, doesn’t really fit that - the bullpen is full of Allen equivalents at this point

- Yeah, I see Brooks has his breaking ball listed as a knuckle curve.

Overall he seems like a souped up, younger Robertson, consistent and healthy fastball/curve pitchers that pile up Ks and popups

That’s fine and good. I’m not wanting to go 5-6 years and almost $100 million on him. There’s plenty of options available for a ton less who you could reasonably expect to be pretty much as good for the 2-3 years they’ll take to sign for like 1/5th the price.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 am

Cubswin11 wrote:That’s fine and good. I’m not wanting to go 5-6 years and almost $100 million on him. There’s plenty of options available for a ton less who you could reasonably expect to be pretty much as good for the 2-3 years they’ll take to sign for like 1/5th the price.


Given the relative popularity of Robertson as a target, it seems arbitrary and random to suddenly panic over possibly having Craig Kimbrel through age 35-36. Generally the skills are same except Kimbrel is way better and more physically talented. MLB.com actually put up an article on historical comps (admittedly a very short list, will link ASAP) and for the most part those guys aged really well. Toss in that the top relievers have been signing at steal prices, the general consensus is he won’t get either 6 years or $100 million, and I just don’t see these same worries.

I also don’t buy that there are plenty of options with Robertson off the board. Every other FA option is a fixer upper we’re hoping bounces back from multi year struggles or stays healthy, whereas typical or even slightly diminished Kimbrel is one of if not the best reliever in baseball.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:29 am

The Cubs are extremely poor. Add in the fact that Theo doesn't really give relievers a lot of years or big money, and there is zero chance of Kimbrell coming here.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:41 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:That’s fine and good. I’m not wanting to go 5-6 years and almost $100 million on him. There’s plenty of options available for a ton less who you could reasonably expect to be pretty much as good for the 2-3 years they’ll take to sign for like 1/5th the price.


Given the relative popularity of Robertson as a target, it seems arbitrary and random to suddenly panic over possibly having Craig Kimbrel through age 35-36. Generally the skills are same except Kimbrel is way better and more physically talented. MLB.com actually put up an article on historical comps (admittedly a very short list, will link ASAP) and for the most part those guys aged really well. Toss in that the top relievers have been signing at steal prices, the general consensus is he won’t get either 6 years or $100 million, and I just don’t see these same worries.

I also don’t buy that there are plenty of options with Robertson off the board. Every other FA option is a fixer upper we’re hoping bounces back from multi year struggles or stays healthy, whereas typical or even slightly diminished Kimbrel is one of if not the best reliever in baseball.

I just have no interest in giving a north of 30 RP a huge 4-6 year deal (Melancon, Jansen and Chapman have all had issues since signing their mega deals most recently). It’s just a dumb way of doing business, imo. I’d rather sign 1-2 Cishek’s, Morrow’s or Robertson’s every offseason for these 2 year deals than 1 Kimbrel every few offseasons given the nature of relief pitchers and the risks of doing one of these big FA RP deals setting a bullpen/team back. If a Cishek or Morrow or Allen or Robertson blows out it can be overcome and quickly from a moneys stand point. If a Melancon, Jansen, Kimbrel etc type blow out at these dollars it’s a major issue.

Robertson was popular because he’s still good and would come cheap because of age, I don’t think anyone was wanting him at any cost.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:44 am

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:The Cubs are extremely poor. Add in the fact that Theo doesn't really give relievers a lot of years or big money, and there is zero chance of Kimbrell coming here.


This same guy gave Brandon Morrow $10 million a year over multiple years off of 57 innings, garaunteed Strop 3 years starting at age 32...He even left the door plenty open for such a signing last month:

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/ ... op-kimbrel

"Just weigh all the alternatives," Epstein said last month. "I do believe getting those last outs can be a little bit more challenging than getting the other outs, so it's not just any job. But I'm a lot more concerned with just like the overall [bullpen]. The way we look at it is I want as many really talented options as we can in the 'pen. That's what we ask ourselves more than do we have a 'closer'?

"...I just want to make sure we have a really talented 'pen with lots of different options and see how things shake out. I don't think given our other needs, given our roster and payroll situation now and going forward that investing long-term at closer at big money is really high up our priority list right now. But stranger things have happened. I think we have some other areas to address."
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:51 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:The Cubs are extremely poor. Add in the fact that Theo doesn't really give relievers a lot of years or big money, and there is zero chance of Kimbrell coming here.


This same guy gave Brandon Morrow $10 million a year over multiple years off of 57 innings, garaunteed Strop 3 years starting at age 32...He even left the door plenty open for such a signing last month:

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/ ... op-kimbrel

"Just weigh all the alternatives," Epstein said last month. "I do believe getting those last outs can be a little bit more challenging than getting the other outs, so it's not just any job. But I'm a lot more concerned with just like the overall [bullpen]. The way we look at it is I want as many really talented options as we can in the 'pen. That's what we ask ourselves more than do we have a 'closer'?

"...I just want to make sure we have a really talented 'pen with lots of different options and see how things shake out. I don't think given our other needs, given our roster and payroll situation now and going forward that investing long-term at closer at big money is really high up our priority list right now. But stranger things have happened. I think we have some other areas to address."


Morrow got two years and nowhere near Kimbrel money.

Strop's two-year extension wouldn't even be what Kimbrel wants for one season.

Not even in the same park.

ETA: He didn't promise Strop three years. This year was a club option.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:53 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:The Cubs are extremely poor. Add in the fact that Theo doesn't really give relievers a lot of years or big money, and there is zero chance of Kimbrell coming here.


This same guy gave Brandon Morrow $10 million a year over multiple years off of 57 innings, garaunteed Strop 3 years starting at age 32...He even left the door plenty open for such a signing last month:

Morrow got a guaranteed 2 years for $21 million, Strop got a guaranteed 2 years for $11 million with a $6 million team option (which was picked up this year). Those deals aren't horsefeathering close to what Kimbrel is going to get, we are comparing apples to horsefeathering marbles here. Kimbrel is going to get 2.5-3x the amount of the money guaranteed to Morrow and Strop COMBINED and 2-4 more years.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Tim » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:56 am

I wonder what Britton is going to get. He looked really good in September, but then got kinda lit up in a small sample in the postseason.

All in all, what I really want is to sign Harper, then trade an excess outfielder for a reliever.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Splendid Splinter » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:59 am

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Morrow got two years and nowhere near Kimbrel money.

Strop's two-year extension wouldn't even be what Kimbrel wants for one season.

Not even in the same park.

ETA: He didn't promise Strop three years. This year was a club option.


Yep. It's much more likely Theo would sign Cody Allen for a 2 yr deal plus an option for around Morrow/Robertson range than go after Kimbrel. Or Britton possibly on the same deal with even less $$$. Not sure what his demands are.

EDIT: Added Britton there as I forgot about him and didn't see that Tim beat me on that part.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:02 am

Tim wrote:I wonder what Britton is going to get. He looked really good in September, but then got kinda lit up in a small sample in the postseason.

All in all, what I really want is to sign Harper, then trade an excess outfielder for a reliever.

Heyman or Nightengale or one of the national guys mentioned that it seems like the Yankees are really focusing on Britton now that Robertson is off the board. I have some interest in a Roberston level deal for him but not much more. But yeah I'd prefer the sign Harper and get a younger/cheaper/controlled relief pitcher for Almora/Happ/Schwarber route.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:25 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I just have no interest in giving a north of 30 RP a huge 4-6 year deal (Melancon, Jansen and Chapman have all had issues since signing their mega deals most recently). It’s just a dumb way of doing business, imo. I’d rather sign 1-2 Cishek’s, Morrow’s or Robertson’s every offseason for these 2 year deals than 1 Kimbrel every few offseasons given the nature of relief pitchers and the risks of doing one of these big FA RP deals setting a bullpen/team back. If a Cishek or Morrow or Allen or Robertson blows out it can be overcome and quickly from a moneys stand point. If a Melancon, Jansen, Kimbrel etc type blow out at these dollars it’s a major issue.

Robertson was popular because he’s still good and would come cheap because of age, I don’t think anyone was wanting him at any cost.


- A major part of Robertson’s appeal here went beyond price tag, as if he was any generic reliever on the FA market. His experience and consistency were and are considered a big part of the package.

- It still seems random and arbitrary to be cool with Robertson through age 36+ but be totally and completely against a better pitcher nearly a half decade younger with all the same on field selling points.

- Jansen’s heart issues are hardly something we should be holding against Kimbrel. Chapman’s health issue led to one merely very good season before coming right back to dominant this year. Melancon’s not even close as a performer and even still as recently as last week we were seriously discussing him as a viable trade option. Stack Kimbrel’s performance and health against those other two and he’s the best of the bunch

- I don’t see how Kimbrel stops them, after this offseason anyway, from the annual 1-3 year reliever contracts they’ve been giving out. If anything, he makes it easier to utilize those guys more efficiently rather than signing Brandon Morrows to close for a perrenial WS contender over 7 month seasons. Plus there’s a pool of in-house min salary reliever candidates building for 2020, should be ablw to get one guy out of that. This is also still a top market club about to get paid for their media rights while dropping some $60+ million in payroll next year before inevitable trades so I remain slow to buy into the broke/poor narrative.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Splendid Splinter » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:28 am

While we're on this topic, anybody heard anything about Herrera or Ottavino?

Another guy I don't mind having is Tyler Clippard. You can probably sign him a 1 yr deal for ~3 mil which is double what he got from Blue Jay's last season.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:37 am

Splendid Splinter wrote:While we're on this topic, anybody heard anything about Herrera or Ottavino?

Another guy I don't mind having is Tyler Clippard. You can probably sign him a 1 yr deal for ~3 mil which is double what he got from Blue Jay's last season.

Herrera, last I saw, might not even be ready for start of the season. I’ve seen the Yankees connected to Ottavino some but things seem quiet there. Clippard would be an okay signing, I’d like to aim a little higher but it wouldn’t be the worst move. I’d rather have him than Kintzler.
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Re: Phillies sign David Robertson

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:41 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I just have no interest in giving a north of 30 RP a huge 4-6 year deal (Melancon, Jansen and Chapman have all had issues since signing their mega deals most recently). It’s just a dumb way of doing business, imo. I’d rather sign 1-2 Cishek’s, Morrow’s or Robertson’s every offseason for these 2 year deals than 1 Kimbrel every few offseasons given the nature of relief pitchers and the risks of doing one of these big FA RP deals setting a bullpen/team back. If a Cishek or Morrow or Allen or Robertson blows out it can be overcome and quickly from a moneys stand point. If a Melancon, Jansen, Kimbrel etc type blow out at these dollars it’s a major issue.

Robertson was popular because he’s still good and would come cheap because of age, I don’t think anyone was wanting him at any cost.


- A major part of Robertson’s appeal here went beyond price tag, as if he was any generic reliever on the FA market. His experience and consistency were and are considered a big part of the package.

- It still seems random and arbitrary to be cool with Robertson through age 36+ but be totally and completely against a better pitcher nearly a half decade younger with all the same on field selling points.


I don’t see how it’s random and arbitrary to be fine with wanting an older RP for significantly less years and money who is still performing well over a guy who takes a ton more money and years (isn’t necessarily young himself) that plays a position that seems extreme volatility and random drop offs all the time and avoiding that risk. We’re just going to have to agree to disagree here.
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