International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Of course this happens when the Cubs are linked to a top-two IFA this year.

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/c ... story.html

According to Baseball America’s story on the 2020 international signing period, the Cubs are projected to sign one of the top shortstops in Cristian Hernandez.

Hernandez, a 16-year-old prospect from the Dominican Republic, would receive a $3.5 million bonus — the fourth-highest in the pool, according to Baseball America.

The list was compiled by projected signing bonuses because the publication believed it wasn’t fair to players who have committed to a team and therefore aren’t being evaluated by other teams.

The 6-foot-2, 165-pound Hernandez is one of seven shortstops ranked in the top 10 among projected signing bonuses.

Looks like the Cubs are still getting Hernandez?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-cristian-hernandez-20200406-df5iswdlhre6vpbpgahjqzfkme-story.html

According to Baseball America’s story on the 2020 international signing period, the Cubs are projected to sign one of the top shortstops in Cristian Hernandez.

Hernandez, a 16-year-old prospect from the Dominican Republic, would receive a $3.5 million bonus — the fourth-highest in the pool, according to Baseball America.

The list was compiled by projected signing bonuses because the publication believed it wasn’t fair to players who have committed to a team and therefore aren’t being evaluated by other teams.

The 6-foot-2, 165-pound Hernandez is one of seven shortstops ranked in the top 10 among projected signing bonuses.

Looks like the Cubs are still getting Hernandez?

Why wouldn't they? The only question is when the signing period will start.

That BA article said Hernandez would get “around $3.5 million,” which would be the 4th highest bonus in the coming IFA class.

Hernandez was the only Cub in the top 25 bonuses and the bottom of the list was getting around $1.5 million so we know Ballesteros will get less than that.

[TomtheBombadil]

BA's writeup on Hernandez:



Working out in Cubs' 2017-2019 division champs gear:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Christian Hernandez is 5th on MLB’s list. I haven’t seen him lower than 2 on any other ranking, though this is the first ranking I’ve seen with Yoelqi Céspedes (Yoenis’ younger half brother).

At 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, the teenager resembles a young Alex Rodriguez and has a build similar to Manny Machado at the same age. His approach and abilities give him a chance to hit for a high batting average and he is expected to have plus power in the future. There’s a belief he could eventually develop into a .300 hitter who can slug 30 or more home runs a year. On defense, he shows plus arm potential with smooth hands and the ability to make plays in the hole and up the middle with equal proficiency. He consistently runs the 60-yard dash in 6.5 seconds. The Cubs are the favorite to sign the infielder.

Moises Ballesteros was listed amongst the “best of the rest,” outside the top 30.

[Cubswin11]

A-Rod with Machado’s body, well that’s reasonable

[CubsWin]

https://twitter.com/mlbpipeline/status/1255261559460413443?s=21

Christian Hernandez is 5th on MLB’s list. I haven’t seen him lower than 2 on any other ranking, though this is the first ranking I’ve seen with Yoelqi Céspedes (Yoenis’ younger half brother).

At 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, the teenager resembles a young Alex Rodriguez and has a build similar to Manny Machado at the same age. His approach and abilities give him a chance to hit for a high batting average and he is expected to have plus power in the future. There’s a belief he could eventually develop into a .300 hitter who can slug 30 or more home runs a year. On defense, he shows plus arm potential with smooth hands and the ability to make plays in the hole and up the middle with equal proficiency. He consistently runs the 60-yard dash in 6.5 seconds. The Cubs are the favorite to sign the infielder.

Moises Ballesteros was listed amongst the “best of the rest,” outside the top 30.

If Hernandez doesn't immediately make the Cubs top 10 prospects, either that description is a little rosy or it's a really good sign for the Cubs system as a whole...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1:15
Danny: Likely way too early to know but is the expectation that the 2021 J2 signing period will be delayed too? Something like January 2022?

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think we’re on a whole new calendar for Int’l stuff already. January for this group and every one beyond it until a draft (which I think will be ’23, Kiley thinks ’22)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Christian is the top IFA on here (the first 9 are draft prospects).

10. Cristian Hernandez, SS, Dominican Republic. Age: 16

I won't pretend to be the world’s foremost-known expert on this season’s J2 class (the 2020 J2 signing date is still yet to be decided, for what it’s worth) when it’s currently darn near impossible to project outcomes for MLB players this summer, but I will say Hernandez has earned average-or-better grades across the board on outlets who have seen the teenager in person. Choosing between Hernandez and Carlos Colmenarez is practically splitting hairs at this point, but I’m giving the former the nod thanks to a swing that generates more natural loft, slightly smoother actions at shortstop and a frame that projects a bit better. In the fantasy world (which is a realm that doesn’t necessarily care about handedness), Hernandez projects as a slightly-less loud version of Robert Puason from last summer’s class. Whenever J2 signing day rolls around, it’s assumed the teenager will ink with the Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mike (Denver): If the top J2 guys (Carlos Colmenarez, Cristian Hernandez) were in this draft, where would they likely be selected in the draft and where would they be in your rankings? Would guys like this be considered as volatile as the HS Pitching demographic?

Carlos Collazo: This is an interesting question for this year’s class specifically, because the shortstop talent isn’t great, particularly on the prep side. I enlisted Ben Badler’s help for this one and after talking with him it sounds like both would both be first-round talents. While I would prefer Howard’s defensive skill, both of their offensive upside is a bit more exciting, IMO. Given their age and the projection you have to do on kids that young they would definitely be towards the more volatile side of the spectrum. None of these guys (including Howard) have been scouted for a while, so they all have some uncertainty.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pete: If Carlos Colmenarez and Cristian Hernandez we’re available for the draft where would they likely go? Would this demographic be considered as risky as HS Pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’d go late first at the earliest, probably comfortably in the second round.

Ryan: If the draft included J2 players, how many J2 players would typically go in the 1st round? Would they likely be considered the riskiest demographic due to their age?

Eric A Longenhagen: The best J2 players are in typically in the 45-50 FV range so that means top 5 for the very very best of them, more mid to late rd one for the top of the class in a usual year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ben Badler dropped his Cubs 2020 IFA preview today: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... g-preview/

He added 3 new smaller names on top of Hernandez and Ballesteros:

Dominican OF Daniel Ferreira
Veneuzelan LHP Carlos Cabrera
Dominican OF Oferman Hernandez

Badler said this IFA class has the chance to be the second best Cubs class ever, behind the 2013 Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres group. He also said this about Hernandez’ prospect status:

He's not necessarily a similar player to Giants shortstop Marco Luciano, but he could follow a similar path as an elite Dominican amateur prospect who has a chance to rocket up our Top 100 list once he gets a year in pro ball.

[Cubswin11]

Posting for the video. Can definitely see the Machado comp, body wise for him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Here are videos of Ferriera:





Offerman Hernandez:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not that the Cubs have much money left for the upcoming J2, but:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I’m hoping this is a sign that this year’s J2 is still on and not getting pushed back to January 2021.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Oops, never mind. Hope this doesn’t hurt anything on the deal with Christian Hernández.

[Regular Show]

Oops, never mind. Hope this doesn’t hurt anything on the deal with Christian Hernandez.

Hahaha, yeah I was pretty sure it was moving to January. Doesn't affect anything and all teams have informed their J2 signees about this.

Kinda annoying, but we all know baseball owners are trying to save cash wherever they can...

EDIT: I shouldn't say it "doesn't affect anything"... That's true from a contract perspective (I believe), but this delayed signing hurts the players and their families. A lot of them come from poor backgrounds and this opportunity is huge for them. They also have to repay, or give a cut of their bonuses to their trainers and agents. This time is very stressful and full of anxiety because some teams occasionally renege on these agreements...

I'm sure having to wait a few more months to sign is very stressful for these players. That definitely sucks.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... nus-pools/

The Cubs IFA pool for the period 1/15/21-12/15/21 (formerly 7/2/20-6/15/21) is $5,348,100.

The Cardinals and Pirates will get $5,899,600 and the Brewers and Reds have a pool of $6,431,000.

There are no trades of pool money in this IFA period.

Looks like the 2019 J2 period which was supposed to end yesterday has been extended:

NEW INTERNATIONAL SIGNING PERIOD DATES

Oct. 15, 2020 (5 pm ET): 2019-2020 international signing period ends (previously June 15)

Oct. 15, 2020 (5 pm ET) - Jan. 15, 2021 (9 am ET): Closed period, no international signings permitted

Jan. 15, 2021 (5 pm ET)-Dec. 15, 2021: 2020-21 international signing period (previously July 2, 2020-June 15, 2021).

[Named After Maddux]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

[TomtheBombadil]

Santin said that on one hand, a draft would eliminate the abuses associated with scouts who flaunt the signing rules; on the other, he felt MLB wants a draft to better control the costs of the international market and even the Dominican player development system itself.

.....

“I am for an international draft, but I am for an international draft done the right way,” Santin continued. “MLB, they’re allowing this to happen so they can say, ‘See we need a draft. It got so bad that you guys couldn’t control yourselves.’ ”

Nailed it....Paint them as savage, 'Merica/MLB will save them from themselves by establishing total dominance and their own order, and 6 individual millenias old reptilian families will benefit

[Regular Show]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age...

The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023.

The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair...

The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place.

I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens.

It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

[Hrubes20]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age...

The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023.

The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair...

The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place.

I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens.

It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

I think I saw a proposal where the draft spot in a hypothetical international draft wasn't based entirely on record. I think it was centered around the divisions first. It was something like this:

2021
NL West drafts 1st (Order is based on previous year's record, so Padres would have the 1st pick and the Dodgers the 5th pick)
AL West drafts 2nd
NL Central drafts 3rd
AL Central drafts 4th
NL East drafts 5th
AL East drafts 6th

2022
AL West drafts 1st
NL Central drafts 2nd
AL Central drafts 3rd
NL East drafts 4th
AL East drafts 5th
NL West drafts 6th

2023
NL Central drafts 1st
AL Central drafts 2nd
NL East drafts 3rd
AL East drafts 4th
NL West drafts 5th
AL West drafts 6th

and so on and so on.

It obviously wouldn't eliminate tanking, but it wouldn't provide much additional incentive to do so, since the best you could do is 3-4 spots higher in the international draft.

[Regular Show]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age...

The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023.

The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair...

The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place.

I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens.

It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

I think I saw a proposal where the draft spot in a hypothetical international draft wasn't based entirely on record. I think it was centered around the divisions first. It was something like this:

2021
NL West drafts 1st (Order is based on previous year's record, so Padres would have the 1st pick and the Dodgers the 5th pick)
AL West drafts 2nd
NL Central drafts 3rd
AL Central drafts 4th
NL East drafts 5th
AL East drafts 6th

2022
AL West drafts 1st
NL Central drafts 2nd
AL Central drafts 3rd
NL East drafts 4th
AL East drafts 5th
NL West drafts 6th

2023
NL Central drafts 1st
AL Central drafts 2nd
NL East drafts 3rd
AL East drafts 4th
NL West drafts 5th
AL West drafts 6th

and so on and so on.

It obviously wouldn't eliminate tanking, but it wouldn't provide much additional incentive to do so, since the best you could do is 3-4 spots higher in the international draft.

I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.

[Bertz]

The purpose of a draft is like 90% salary suppression, 5% competitive balance, and 5% ratings. Given that the MLBPA already agreed to capped salaries for like an omelette bar or some horsefeathers, I have 0 issue with an international draft at this point.