rawaction wrote:Gonna be an interesting offseason. Obviously the 2018 coach of the year and one of the top executives of the year aren't going anywhere.....so the hot take artists on Twitter can stop with that. But I do think they will feel a TON of pressure this offseason. Not necessarily from the fans, or ownership putting them on the proverbial hot seat, but I think they will feel pressure of the window closing.
I think the plan right now is to let Pace & Nagy pick a QB together, but if they have another dismal season....I don't know that either would feel very safe going into 2021.
It sucks, because Mitch seems like a good kid. He's talented, likable and humble; but I feel like they have to move on from him. While his contract is guaranteed, I think they could potentially trade him or just straight up cut him. Because to have Mitch on the roster, means to be OK with him if he has to play. To be OK with him playing, means you probably don't have a clearly better option. To not have a clearly better option, means you potentially could have another dismal season.
I HATE the thought of trading a high pick for a QB and paying said QB, over 20Mil. Foles? Owed big money, would likely require one of those 2nds to the Jags. Not interested. Newton? Owed 21Mil. Wouldn't necessarily cost a 2nd, but who knows if his body can even hold up. Not interested. Alex Smith? Maybe he's cut which would make him more desirable, but again can his body hold up? Not interested.
Free agency you have guys that have been benched now or should be like Dalton, Winston, Eli, Keenum? Are any of them guaranteed to be better than Trubisky was in 2018? Don't know if it's worth the money to find out. Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Dak aren't going anywhere.
The best options i see are that maybe Mariota takes a 1-year deal to play for Helfrich (if he's still around after this year) and potentially earn a big payday. Teddy Bridgewater is a good long-term option. He's looked good in limited action since his injury, and was a pretty highly regarded prospect before that. Both of these options would potentiallly mean weakening the all around roster that Pace has been building for 4 years, as they'd require a decent amount of money along with likely paying at least some of Trubisky's salary.. They'd stand to lose a lot of talent and don't have the draft picks necessary to replace them right away.
I'm not convinced Mariota will cost a lot. I could see him going in the low double digits range, which would be tight, but manageable. OTOH I'm really not convinced on Mariota, either. Definitely don't want to see them give up draft capital to trade for any of the guys listed.
Of all those guys listed, I don't think all of them are going to go for big money... someone will be left standing available for Chase Daniel type money or less... who knows which one it will be, and Pace probably won't be in the position where he wants to just wait out the market and not get his top guy.
Honestly, while really risky considering that closing window, I think the best bet is to double down on the strategy of cheap QB spending and put every cap resource elsewhere. Get some competition for Mitch, but don't hinder upgrades elsewhere to try and improve the QB room with an expensive vet. Bring in a youngish guy coming out of a rookie or second contract who has some backup experience and has some skills to work with but may still fit in that sub $5m range. Hopefully use one of your seconds on a QB you like, or worst case the 4th round comp pick. Bring in a couple UDFAs. If anyone flashes in the XFL, bring them into the rookie minicamp. Sign Bray to non-guaranteed deal for camp. Post-draft if you don't end up with a 2nd or 4th rounder you REALLY like, bring in whatever vet QB you can at that point (thinking a Fitzpatrick type in that 3-4M range) But basically plan on a 3 QB roster with Mitch + cheap vet competition + 2nd round pick.
Spend a chunk of the cap space on a move TE and interior swing OL guy. Spend a pick on a OT. Cut Floyd's non-guaranteed deal and put that back into the FA market for a front 7 upgrade (Clowney as the #1 choice, on a backloaded deal). Do whatever back-oaded contract shenanigans you have to to fit Dix back into the S room on a multi-year deal. You may need to cut some of the waste in the WR room with either Gabriel or Patterson and do your best to fill it on the cheap (Wims. Ridley, your tables are ready). May even need to look at some roster bonus conversions. Looks like Whitehair may have some convertible cap- Massie and Burton look like they do, but those would be riskier conversions since they'll be such prime cut candidates in 2021, and converting cap kills that.
So basically ~ 21M in cap after cutting Long. Cut Floyd (13) and Gabriel (4.5) and you're at about 39M.
~5-7M on the QB room
~5-7M on a TE
~2-4M on decent swing lineman?
About 20-21M left for backloading some D deals on a Floyd replacement, retaining/replacing Clinton-Dix, replacing Trevathan (hopefully White Nick continues to flash and signs relatively cheap), the draft class, and low/minimum signings.... again some of the other cap manuevers mentioned will need to come into play. Might have to put some high protection 2nd round tneders their few RFA who are actually good depth guys.
(There are 3 really big cut candidates based on pure cap saving, but I don't think any would be worth it - Robinson, Fuller, Amukamara, all would save nearly 8-10M each. Shaheen at 1.2M is an easy, albeit small savings cut. Plow that right back into a low-end blocking TE as a 1:1 trade-off probably).
With all the backloaded deals mentioned, 2021 will be big reset with some more obvious dead weight contracts available to cut or not re-sign, but will need to see production from some of the younger guys currently on the roster who can bridge into 2022/23. Also the silver lining with a crappy Mitch, and if you don't spend big on a averag-ish QB like Bridgewater, you can keep on keeping the QB room pretty cheap.
2nd ; QB (Hurts or Eason, but I could see them both move up unfortunately)
2nd ; OT or CB (eventual Amukamara/Fuller replacements needed)
4th ; OT or CB - possible QB if no 2nd round pick
5th ; OL, S, LB, RB depth
5th* ; OL, S, LB, RB depth
5th/6th** ; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth
6th; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth
7th ; OL, S, LB, RB, CB, WR depth
*Possible conditional pick from Mack trade, unconfirmed
**Conditional pick for Howard, details unknown
Could possibly get another comp pick for 2021 depending on how that FA group works out (Trevathan, Clinton-Dix, Bush, Lynch, Daniel, Black Nick, White Nick all could be comp pick losses). Obviously they'll keep a few, plus sign some FA who offset those, but they could get one if they don't spread the limited money around too much and instead go for one or two big signings and then fill in the rest with guys who don't offset the comp formula. I think 2021 they'll just be down a late pick for Pinerio, but otherwise be intact with picks.