TomtheBombadil wrote:Cubswin11 wrote:The money falling off of guys leaving isn’t enough to do any real adds. They almost certainly are going to be running a lower payroll in 2021 and be well below the LT. They won’t be close to anywhere we were in 2020-2019 in terms of payroll/LT. You need to clear more money than just the “money falling off” to really add anything.
Right now Spotrac has us at $110 mil before arb, I’d assume after adding arb in is where we are going to end up payroll wise overall ($160-170 mil) on the year. We aren’t touching that $190-200+ range we have been.
They need to do a Schwarbs NT, Willy trade and Kimbrel (at least partial money) trade to clear any decent amount of FA money. lol at the idea of trading Bote or Almora accomplishing this. Bote makes no money for 1, he should be kept and has nominal trade value and looking to trade Almora over just non-tendering him is a waste of time just NT him.
Bote's $3 million against the LT which is > no money. What's nominal trade value here? He's an infielder in his 20s at a non-1B position with some power and patience and 4 years at low prices left. In an offseason in which most players will be defined by salary and control, what's not to like about that position? So long as they're shopping realistically, not every move has to be The One that will save The Future, there's no reason to think they couldn't get a desirable enough pitcher in a deal. Same thing for Slaps, the league is still short on CFs and he's cheap, young, and under control for multiple seasons
As far as the payroll stuff...You're talking lopping an additional ~$30 million on top of the at least $30 million coming off after going from 3rd in payroll in 2019 to 7th in 2020...That just doesn't add up IMO and I'm not even calling for a $190-200+ payroll, which would require some $100+ million being added to what's already committed in 2021 according to MLBTR
The MLBTR estimate doesn’t have arb. So that’s wrong. I also don’t know how they factor in options, if it’s just buyout money or assume option is exercised. Would think it’s just buyout money since that’s the guaranteed amount. So their estimate might not have Rizzo’s option but does have Jon’s buyout. We are at ~$160 payroll wise right now and ~$190 LT wise adding arb guys in and picking up Rizzo option/doing Lester buyout (so $10-20 mil to spend to stay under the LT). So yeah that’s the payroll you are calling for if you aren’t willing to do a Schwarbs/Kimbrel move and want to keep every non Willy guy potentially. I just don’t see them being willing to be much higher than where they are today.
If you think you can get something for Bote cool, I’m for it. But again LOL at thinking Almora is bringing anything back. He’s horsefeathering terrible and costs ~$2 mil this year.