Mike Leake

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:33 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
sneakypower wrote:everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)


Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80


Let's put that to the test. Here's a count of starts with at least 6 IP and 0 or 1 ER given up.

Leake

2015: 10 starts
2014: 10 starts
2013: 12 starts

Samardzija

2015: 7 starts
2014: 14 starts
2013: 9 starts

So if you can be sure you're getting 2014 Shark, yeah I think you can make that argument. Otherwise, I'm not so sure.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:36 pm

whoa that was eerie
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby CubinNY » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:42 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
sneakypower wrote:everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)


Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80

well, yeah, he can

last 3 years
starts w/ 7+ IP, 2- ER:
Shark - 38% / Leake - 37%

but also Leake doesn't bomb a game quite like Samardzija can...

starts w/ 4+ ER:
Shark - 37% / Leake - 32%

I'm sold.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:23 pm

That's a fun exercise and fundamentally illustrates that he's had a decent ERA the past few years. You could do the same thing for a guy like Bud Norris across a several year horizon. Unfortunately, that's another version of a descriptive stat instead of a predictive one.

I just don't trust pitchers who allow that much contact. For one thing, I think they tread a much finer edge than other pitchers when it comes to performance. For another, there is more inherent variability in results for pitchers who give up that many balls in play. He's had positive variance three years in a row and that's great. I think he's much more likely to regress to his FIP/xFIP numbers than to continue having that good fortune. I think he's more likely to have his performance collapse.
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby SouthSideRyan » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:38 pm

Calling it "good fortune" implies that he had no control over it. I'm not as big a fan of Leake as others, but simply looking at FIP/xFIP(over several years) and hand-waving away results that differ(in either direction) is silly.
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:47 pm

Tim wrote:That's a fun exercise and fundamentally illustrates that he's had a decent ERA the past few years. You could do the same thing for a guy like Bud Norris across a several year horizon. Unfortunately, that's another version of a descriptive stat instead of a predictive one.

I just don't trust pitchers who allow that much contact. For one thing, I think they tread a much finer edge than other pitchers when it comes to performance. For another, there is more inherent variability in results for pitchers who give up that many balls in play. He's had positive variance three years in a row and that's great. I think he's much more likely to regress to his FIP/xFIP numbers than to continue having that good fortune. I think he's more likely to have his performance collapse.

you say this all the while campaigning to exile the guy with 2 BB/9 : 8.9 K/9, 3.49 FIP as a Cub

amusingly, those rates were 3.1 & 6.5 before we signed him, at age 31...
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:49 pm

He's not really campaigning to exile Hammel...
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:52 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Tim wrote:That's a fun exercise and fundamentally illustrates that he's had a decent ERA the past few years. You could do the same thing for a guy like Bud Norris across a several year horizon. Unfortunately, that's another version of a descriptive stat instead of a predictive one.

I just don't trust pitchers who allow that much contact. For one thing, I think they tread a much finer edge than other pitchers when it comes to performance. For another, there is more inherent variability in results for pitchers who give up that many balls in play. He's had positive variance three years in a row and that's great. I think he's much more likely to regress to his FIP/xFIP numbers than to continue having that good fortune. I think he's more likely to have his performance collapse.

you say this all the while campaigning to exile the guy with 2 BB/9 : 8.9 K/9, 3.49 FIP as a Cub

amusingly, those rates were 3.1 & 6.5 before we signed him, at age 31...

I'm the guy campaigning to not exile that guy.
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby craig » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:04 pm

sneaky power wrote:....last 3 years
starts w/ 7+ IP, 2- ER:
Shark - 38% / Leake - 37%...

starts w/ 4+ ER:
Shark - 37% / Leake - 32%


Interesting. Obviously there is some hope that Samardz has the arm and velocity and stuff to pitch better than his 3-year composite; and some fear that Leake would pitch worse. But yeah, pretty good chance that actual Samardz won't be any better, and may well be worse, than Leake or Lackey or Hendricks or Hammel.

Tangent: We've presumed that rotation was going to be the place where the pitching upgrade would be most noticeable. But I wonder if relief might be an area?

Statistically, both rotation and relief were very good last year. Both look very vulnerable to decline. But if we added some bullpen firepower, and both the added talent pitched well, and the risky wild return guys like Strop and Grimm remained good, the Cubs could hypothetically have a very, very strong bullpen. You can win a lot of games with Hendricks/Hammel/Leake types starting and giving 5-6 innings, and then turning games over to a really good/deep bullpen. In the playoffs with zillions of off days, you can turn games over to the bullpen even quicker.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:05 pm

Tim wrote:
sneakypower wrote:
Tim wrote:That's a fun exercise and fundamentally illustrates that he's had a decent ERA the past few years. You could do the same thing for a guy like Bud Norris across a several year horizon. Unfortunately, that's another version of a descriptive stat instead of a predictive one.

I just don't trust pitchers who allow that much contact. For one thing, I think they tread a much finer edge than other pitchers when it comes to performance. For another, there is more inherent variability in results for pitchers who give up that many balls in play. He's had positive variance three years in a row and that's great. I think he's much more likely to regress to his FIP/xFIP numbers than to continue having that good fortune. I think he's more likely to have his performance collapse.

you say this all the while campaigning to exile the guy with 2 BB/9 : 8.9 K/9, 3.49 FIP as a Cub

amusingly, those rates were 3.1 & 6.5 before we signed him, at age 31...

I'm the guy campaigning to not exile that guy.

be that as it may...THE POINT REMAINS
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Bull » Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:08 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Tim wrote:
sneakypower wrote:
Tim wrote:That's a fun exercise and fundamentally illustrates that he's had a decent ERA the past few years. You could do the same thing for a guy like Bud Norris across a several year horizon. Unfortunately, that's another version of a descriptive stat instead of a predictive one.

I just don't trust pitchers who allow that much contact. For one thing, I think they tread a much finer edge than other pitchers when it comes to performance. For another, there is more inherent variability in results for pitchers who give up that many balls in play. He's had positive variance three years in a row and that's great. I think he's much more likely to regress to his FIP/xFIP numbers than to continue having that good fortune. I think he's more likely to have his performance collapse.

you say this all the while campaigning to exile the guy with 2 BB/9 : 8.9 K/9, 3.49 FIP as a Cub

amusingly, those rates were 3.1 & 6.5 before we signed him, at age 31...

I'm the guy campaigning to not exile that guy.

be that as it may...THE POINT REMAINS

HEY! DON'T YELL AT TIM!

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:51 am

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Enn Tea » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:56 am

I dont really care if they sign leake, cuz we're gonna kick their asses again regardless of what they do. But just for the lols, i need some team to swoop in and sign him away from them.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby The Logan » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:15 am

Enn Tea wrote:I dont really care if they sign leake, cuz we're gonna kick their asses again regardless of what they do. But just for the lols, i need some team to swoop in and sign him away from them.


And for less money
"I don't think this team improves by trading Scott Feldman," Samardzija said.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby yanrslatr » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:26 am

i bet if we offer him $1 and the chance to carry heyward's bags, he'll sign with us.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:35 am

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby MSG T » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:49 am

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upco ... e-mistake/


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Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Tue Dec 22, 2015 10:10 am

full no trade for leake as well
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Tue Dec 22, 2015 10:17 am

that's about a perfect fit; pretty nice deal on their part imo
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby wolf stansson » Tue Dec 22, 2015 10:48 am

Haha Cubs are f'd. Time to start the rebuild.

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby mul21 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 11:07 am

MSG T wrote:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upcoming-mike-leake-mistake/


He'll eat innings, which is something they're sorely in need of at this point with all the injury question marks they've got. Plus, you would think he'll not see as much of a regression to the mean if the hard contact stays the same based on the fact that he's going from pitching in the GABP launching pad to Busch, which isn't as friendly offensively, especially when it comes to HR.
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:11 pm

look out st. louis area macy's stores
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby KrisBryantisaBeast » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:19 pm

UMFan83 wrote:look out st. louis area macy's stores


Does St. Louis even have a Macy's or do they all just shop at Wal-Mart and Kmart?

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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:22 pm

KrisBryantisaBeast wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:look out st. louis area macy's stores


Does St. Louis even have a Macy's or do they all just shop at Wal-Mart and Kmart?

Dollar Store.
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Re: Mike Leake

Postby Rob » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:43 pm

I actually kinda like the deal for the Cardinals. He's likely to be worth the money.

That said, as a Cubs fan I'm happy they're spending that money on a pretty consistent guy without much of a ceiling. The Cubs are a better team than the Cardinals right now, and absent some truly bad luck for the Cubs the Cardinals need a few high variance guys to break through in order to catch up. Leake wont be one of them.


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