Mike Leake

User avatar
David
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45384
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:33 pm
Location: Chicago

Mike Leake

Postby David » Mon Nov 30, 2015 9:47 am

Image

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:00 am

If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

If he's our second biggest SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should think he's better than Hammel or Hendricks? Is it just the innings/durability?
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
Starter
Posts: 933
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:35 pm

Re: Mike Leake

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:02 am

Yaaaaaaaay farm system in high demand. Meh on Leake, but I don't outright hate him as a target thanks to his health and durability at the back of a rotation.

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:05 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:I don't outright hate him as a target thanks to his health and durability at the back of a rotation.

As a primary or secondary addition?
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:09 am

Tim wrote:If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

If he's our second biggest SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should think he's better than Hammel or Hendricks? Is it just the innings/durability?


Durable, young for a FA(will be 28 all next year), cutter, consistently better than his FIP. He's definitely lower ceiling than some of the other discussed options, but durability is a higher need than upside in at least one of the SP they should acquire.

User avatar
weis21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5989
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2006 12:45 am
Location: ECU

Re: Mike Leake

Postby weis21 » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:11 am

I wouldn't be terribly disappointed with a Shark/Leake combo for this off season. Even more so if it meant they were in heavy on Heyward, obviously. You can do a lot worse than a rotation of Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Leake/Hendricks (or Hammel).

That said, there are a million possibilities for how this offseason will go and I'm certain that it will strengthen next year's club. I'm just excited to see what transpires.

Tryptamine
All-Star
Posts: 4706
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 2:13 pm

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:38 am

There is almost no scenario you could give me that would make me excited about Mike Leake. [expletive] that guy.

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:42 am

yes but how do you feel about him

User avatar
David
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45384
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:33 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:44 am

i could've sworn sneaky brought up his offensive value at one point, but i didn't really see anything that stood out too much when i last looked it up.
Image

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 10436
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 6:58 pm
Location: behind the boathouse

Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:44 am

Tim wrote:If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

because Jason Heyward is going to run down all the fly balls he'll induce

and he'll be a nice #5 #4 when we trade off Gleyber Torres and young P at the deadline for a SP

edit: forgot about Jon Lester
Image

Tryptamine
All-Star
Posts: 4706
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 2:13 pm

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:51 am

I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:55 am

Tryptamine wrote:I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:55 am

sneakypower wrote:
Tim wrote:If Leake would be the "big" SP acquisition of the offseason, can someone convince me why I should be excited about him?

because Jason Heyward is going to run down all the fly balls he'll induce

and he'll be a nice #5 #4 when we trade off Gleyber Torres and young P at the deadline for a SP

edit: forgot about Jon Lester

You didn't convince me.
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
David
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45384
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:33 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:56 am

Tryptamine wrote:I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.


I'd rather he not be our best SP add, but if they signed Heyward and Leake and otherwise (mostly) rolled with the roster we have, I wouldn't be all that distraught.

Just doesn't cover as much for some Lester (because older) or Arrieta (because too damn good) regression as I'd like.
Image

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:28 am

Tim wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.


Steamer has Leake pitching 40 more innings next year than Hammel, 30 more than Hendricks. Or put another way, 25% more IP than Hammel and 18% more IP than Hendricks.

Adding Leake is about minimizing risk and downside. It is not sexy and it is not likely to be some unmitigated success like the Arrieta trade or signing Lester, but it is a true positive nonetheless.

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:32 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.


Steamer has Leake pitching 40 more innings next year than Hammel, 30 more than Hendricks. Or put another way, 25% more IP than Hammel and 18% more IP than Hendricks.

Adding Leake is about minimizing risk and downside. It is not sexy and it is not likely to be some unmitigated success like the Arrieta trade or signing Lester, but it is a true positive nonetheless.

That comes at a cost of significantly degrading the innings that are pitched, going by the very resource you are using for the projections.
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:35 am

Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I really don't see how he makes sense unless he's the only pitcher being added to the roster. He's not better than Hammel or Hendricks. If our major pitching acquisition is Mike Leake I may have an aneurysm before opening day.

That's my issue with him.


Steamer has Leake pitching 40 more innings next year than Hammel, 30 more than Hendricks. Or put another way, 25% more IP than Hammel and 18% more IP than Hendricks.

Adding Leake is about minimizing risk and downside. It is not sexy and it is not likely to be some unmitigated success like the Arrieta trade or signing Lester, but it is a true positive nonetheless.

That comes at a cost of significantly degrading the innings that are pitched, going by the very resource you are using for the projections.


Steamer isn't going to be great at projecting Leake, they basically match up his career FIP, which he's outproduced by a decent margin over his 1000+ IP at the MLB level, and even moreso in recent years. We can be pretty comfortable that Leake is not a performance downgrade, plus his repertoire is Bosio-friendly so we can hope for some uptick as well.

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:39 am

I really, really can't agree with that. I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy. We can also be more confident that Leake will stay healthy. But that means that we are putting an inferior pitcher into the rotation when both guys are healthy.
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:43 am

Tim wrote:I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy.


This requires a really simplistic view of how those pitchers get outs and prevent runs, and also focusing exclusively on the positives that Hammel and Hendricks bring. It's not true.

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 39913
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Naperville, IL
Contact:

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:45 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy.


This requires a really simplistic view of how those pitchers get outs and prevent runs, and also focusing exclusively on the positives that Hammel and Hendricks bring. It's not true.

Whereas your position requires a really simplistic assumption that just because he outproduced his FIP the past few years he'll do it again.
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:49 am

Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:I think one thing we can be confident of is that Leake will be a performance downgrade when both guys are healthy.


This requires a really simplistic view of how those pitchers get outs and prevent runs, and also focusing exclusively on the positives that Hammel and Hendricks bring. It's not true.

Whereas your position requires a really simplistic assumption that just because he outproduced his FIP the past few years he'll do it again.


Yes, I'm confident that Leake's performance relative to his FIP that he's reached over 1000 IP is not a fluke. His career xFIP is a touch lower than his career ERA too, so it requires a really hard line on assuming that the cutter thrower with high GB rates is going to have his BABIP regress to league average.

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 10436
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 6:58 pm
Location: behind the boathouse

Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:00 pm

everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)
Image

Tryptamine
All-Star
Posts: 4706
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 2:13 pm

Re: Mike Leake

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:20 pm

sneakypower wrote:everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)


Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80

User avatar
David
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45384
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:33 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Mike Leake

Postby David » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:30 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Leake is also projected to make 5/80


by who?
Image

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 10436
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 6:58 pm
Location: behind the boathouse

Re: Mike Leake

Postby sneakypower » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:31 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
sneakypower wrote:everybody seems to be cool with Shark, yet this guy has had 40% more on-field value since Shark became a full-time starter, and Leake will probably come at some crazy affordable price (3/42?)


Leake can't take over a game like Samardzija can. Leake is also projected to make 5/80

well, yeah, he can

last 3 years
starts w/ 7+ IP, 2- ER:
Shark - 38% / Leake - 37%

but also Leake doesn't bomb a game quite like Samardzija can...

starts w/ 4+ ER:
Shark - 37% / Leake - 32%
Image


Return to “Transactions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest