General Cubs Chit-Chat

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby CubinNY » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:45 pm

The bullpen is awful and cherry-picking isn't going to make it better.
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Re: RE: Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:19 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:
Bertz wrote:
abuck1220 wrote:I would love to hear an explanation as to how the cubs arrived at the organizational philosophy of building a pitching staff full of good control/no velocity starters and no control/good velocity relievers because it is almost impressive how it has absolutely not worked at all.


Cubs relievers had a 3.46 ERA coming into today


Do you believe that ERA accurately reflects their performance, or has there been some unsustainable luck involved over a small sample size? Dillon Maples currently has an ERA of 2.00, but walks more than 1 batter per inning. Dan Winkler is at 1.43, but has also walked 1 batter per inning. It is only a matter of time before the walks come back to burn them, and the bullpen as a whole.


Sure, but then you have Chafin and Brothers on the flip side of that coin: strong peripherals and a crappy ERA.
Chafin's the primary setup man too, so you feel those unlucky runs more than you benefit from Maples escaping damage while we're already down 6.

We need to figure out which of Tepera/Adam/whomever from AAA is the second RH setup guy, but otherwise I feel quite good about the pen. Kimbrel's been incredible, Workman started a little slow but has been good overall, Chafin's been great but unlucky, etc.

I think early in the year people are even more prone to freakouts than normal, so a legitimately bad weekend for the pen has people on the ledge.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby abuck1220 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:20 pm

Bertz wrote:
abuck1220 wrote:I would love to hear an explanation as to how the cubs arrived at the organizational philosophy of building a pitching staff full of good control/no velocity starters and no control/good velocity relievers because it is almost impressive how it has absolutely not worked at all.


Cubs relievers had a 3.46 ERA coming into today


oh come on. brothers posted an era of 0.00 in his outing saturday wherein he went walk, walk, hbp, k and pretty much lost the game.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:39 pm

It's difficult for me to look at the bullpen and not conclude that it's fine, especially from a roster construction sense. The output is good, the underlying performance is fine(they're more middle of the pack in terms of FIP-based stuff), and the most important pieces are doing their part. Kimbrel is outstanding, Chafin has been good, Wick should hopefully supplement the back end of the pen before too long, and there's either good outcomes or room for optimism in several other spots getting sorted.


The rotation's results have been less good, but I don't think I'd say 'no velocity/good control' was the goal. For one, every team in baseball would want Hendricks in their rotation, and for another Alzolay has plenty of velocity. The rest is a function of:

1) not being given any money to spend, which both made trading Darvish an option and limited the market of what they could acquire
2) the post-pandemic season's uncertainty about workloads(and lack of farm depth) causing them to value durability, which is generally negatively correlated with stuff/velocity
3) being at an uncertain point in terms of the position player core's status beyond this year, which makes longer term commitments(either via trade, FA, or prospect) to risky assets(read: pitchers) an even riskier proposition

A number of these circumstances/problems are of their own design, but I also don't think it's fair to say they sat down in November and said "yes, finally we'll get to build our dream rotation of soft tossers", it's a logical outcome of (IMO) reasonable ideas to make the most of the current situation.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby abuck1220 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:38 pm

oh, i mostly agree. if the reasonably priced, free agent-to-be, #3/#4 in the rotation guy the padres had available to trade for darvish threw 95 mph, that's prob who would be in davies' spot in the rotation right now. and if the trevor williams-ish free agent that could be had for $2 mil threw 95 mph, that's prob who would be in his spot in the rotation right now.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:53 pm



I thought Wick’s oblique would take a while, guess this is confirmation

Megill’s pretty interesting, throws gas with multiple breaking balls at 6’8”

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:13 pm

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby abuck1220 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:50 pm

i apologize for calling davies a “good control/no velocity” guy when he’s actually the ever elusive “no control/no velocity” type.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:19 pm

With the team playing like butt and an astounding 15 (!!!) impending free agents on the roster, it feels like it might be worth starting to keep an eye on the trade deadline. The way I see it there are five groups of guys on the roster who could be dealt:

The Nobodies - Low ceiling options with no realistic path to bringing back a big return
- Sogard, Duffy, Shelby Miller, Romine, Marisnick, Winkler

The Salvageables - Guys with solid track records who've gotten off to crappy starts.  They could still net something fun if they get hot for two months
- Davies, Joc, Workman, Tepera

The Solid Rentals - These guys have legit pedigrees for performance, but have gotten off to mixed starts (either good results with bad peripherals or vice versa)
- Arrieta, Chafin, Javy

The Stars - Guys with star pedigrees currently performing like stars
- KB, Rizzo

The Team Control guys - They are controlled through next year, so even if they produce and we sell they might not go anywhere
-  Willson, Kimbrel, Brothers, Williams
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby d_money » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:46 pm

Totally agree with listing Javy as a rental. El Mago must be kicking himself in the butt for not signing that extension.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby abmillis » Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:58 pm

Bertz wrote:The Team Control guys - They are controlled through next year, so even if they produce and we sell they might not go anywhere
-  Willson, Kimbrel, Brothers, Williams


I would fully expect them to trade Kimbrel if they keep sucking. That extra year adds value, and they won't need him next year since they'll probably suck again, so they might as well try to find some rando to try and catch lightning in a bottle then trade for more than he's worth because he's racked up some saves
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:34 pm

abmillis wrote:
Bertz wrote:The Team Control guys - They are controlled through next year, so even if they produce and we sell they might not go anywhere
-  Willson, Kimbrel, Brothers, Williams


I would fully expect them to trade Kimbrel if they keep sucking. That extra year adds value, and they won't need him next year since they'll probably suck again, so they might as well try to find some rando to try and catch lightning in a bottle then trade for more than he's worth because he's racked up some saves


Totally agree. I think if things stay on their current trajectory he's the most likely guy to be traded after KB.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby CubinNY » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:05 pm

KB will be playing for the Mets or Yankees before July 4th.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat May 01, 2021 1:25 pm

Bertz wrote:
abmillis wrote:
Bertz wrote:The Team Control guys - They are controlled through next year, so even if they produce and we sell they might not go anywhere
-  Willson, Kimbrel, Brothers, Williams


I would fully expect them to trade Kimbrel if they keep sucking. That extra year adds value, and they won't need him next year since they'll probably suck again, so they might as well try to find some rando to try and catch lightning in a bottle then trade for more than he's worth because he's racked up some saves


Totally agree. I think if things stay on their current trajectory he's the most likely guy to be traded after KB.

They should extend KB because they aren’t getting a better player back or likely getting one anytime soon and his price is still probably decent. His comp for a trade is probably Machado to the Dodgers a few years back? That was a garbage return. I’d rather do everything to extend him and if not get the comp pick.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Sat May 01, 2021 7:20 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bertz wrote:
abmillis wrote:
I would fully expect them to trade Kimbrel if they keep sucking. That extra year adds value, and they won't need him next year since they'll probably suck again, so they might as well try to find some rando to try and catch lightning in a bottle then trade for more than he's worth because he's racked up some saves


Totally agree. I think if things stay on their current trajectory he's the most likely guy to be traded after KB.

They should extend KB because they aren’t getting a better player back or likely getting one anytime soon and his price is still probably decent. His comp for a trade is probably Machado to the Dodgers a few years back? That was a garbage return. I’d rather do everything to extend him and if not get the comp pick.


It won't happen, but trade Baez, Kimbrel, and Pederson and use the savings plus whatever they were going to offer Baez to extend Bryant. Hoerner plays short, Bryant in LF, re-sign Duffy for 3B, and keep Marisnick as 4th OF. That may not be a WS winner for next year, but they would be watchable.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Sat May 01, 2021 7:46 pm

I'd think you want to see KB stay healthy this season before extending him. It's been a great month with health, but I'd want to see multiple ones.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Sat May 01, 2021 7:52 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:I'd think you want to see KB stay healthy this season before extending him. It's been a great month with health, but I'd want to see multiple ones.


This. Plus even at his best he has tended to go on prolonged slumps.

Don’t get me wrong, I would 100% support a KB extension. I may shed a tear of happiness if he was extended but I believe despite what he’s said before he wants to test the market, and the market will probably overpay him. At that point the concerns about his ability to torpedo entire seasons with nagging injuries put at least a little risk in a long term mega deal.

But again if the Cubs went ahead and did that I would not complain
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Gilby » Sat May 01, 2021 10:34 pm

I'm fine giving him basically whatever he wants tbh. 2020 was awful, yes, but 30 games. Drives me insane when watching a national broadcast and you get the impression he hasn't been good since 2016. I need any re-set to include keeping Bryzzo, especially if Jed's recent comments about the big money being available soon are true. And hopefully the DH after this season would help both as they age a bit.

Totally fine cashing in on Kimbrel if we still suck or middling in June/July. Same for Javy. The approach isn't cute anymore and obviously a great SS FA class. Even guys like Iglesias and Simmons would be good fits w their contact ability and defense. I'd also understand moving Contreras for a haul.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun May 02, 2021 8:19 am

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Omar » Mon May 03, 2021 2:56 pm

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Mon May 03, 2021 4:42 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:I'd think you want to see KB stay healthy this season before extending him. It's been a great month with health, but I'd want to see multiple ones.


We'll see him get healthy after trading him and he'll have multiple MVP-type seasons and win a few WS rings.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Derwood » Mon May 10, 2021 2:38 am

Team leader in fWAR (pitching): Adbert Alzolay

Team worst in fWAR (pitching): Kyle Hendricks

Just like we drew it up
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon May 10, 2021 1:35 pm

Bumming this from a Bryan Smith tweet...Homegrown Cubs pitching this year:

57.2 IP / 2.97 ERA / 71 Ks / 33 Hs / 24 BBs

I count Hendricks among homegrown pitching, find it bat [expletive] insane and a product of how this team is marketed that he isn’t, but in this case skiiiip
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Wed May 12, 2021 2:50 pm



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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby David » Wed May 12, 2021 2:58 pm

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