Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

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Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:54 pm

So in our annual league last year my team got killed by injury and I decided to sell off members of my team for draft picks. I ended up with the 3rd overall pick and then the top 2 teams in my league’s second round picks so pretty much additional 1sts.

So I will have

3
13
14
22

Anyways for keepers I shadily picked up Delvin Cook right before my roster locked for the season so I could consider keeping him assuming his injury recovery went well. Looks like it has. So I’m thinking of keeping him (lose a 5th round pick) and either Alex Collins or Kenyan Drake (either would lose a 7th round pick). Due to other trades where I lose my 6th and 8th rounders, I am risking not drafting between the 5th and 8th rounds, a critical time in the draft to get underrated guys and sleepers.

So I guess my question is, is it worth keeping Collins or Drake (do either have 7th round value?) or should I only keep 1 guy (Cook)?

Either way I’m excited about how my team is set up already with 4 of the first 22 picks and Cook and potentially a decent RB2 on my roster.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:54 pm

I'd keep one of those RBs. The whole "bird in the hand". IDK if your league is PPR, but Collins ADP is 3.10. Drake 4.04, so both have value in the 7th. Non-PPR, Collins up a little, Drake goes to 4.03 so no real change.

I really like Collins, and he doesn't have much blocking him from high volume in the Ravens backfield. Drake has Gore who will likely get a lot of 1st down and goal line work. So, I'd lean Collins, but Drake in PPR is really intriguing.

Either way, no picks between 5th and 8th rounds isn't a huge deal as you'll have 2 players and 6 picks (5 top 27) before that point. I assume that should be enough to fill most (if not all) of your starting lineup.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:40 pm

rawaction wrote:I'd keep one of those RBs. The whole "bird in the hand". IDK if your league is PPR, but Collins ADP is 3.10. Drake 4.04, so both have value in the 7th. Non-PPR, Collins up a little, Drake goes to 4.03 so no real change.

I really like Collins, and he doesn't have much blocking him from high volume in the Ravens backfield. Drake has Gore who will likely get a lot of 1st down and goal line work. So, I'd lean Collins, but Drake in PPR is really intriguing.

Either way, no picks between 5th and 8th rounds isn't a huge deal as you'll have 2 players and 6 picks (5 top 27) before that point. I assume that should be enough to fill most (if not all) of your starting lineup.


Meant to say this when you posted but thanks! Ended up keeping Cook and Collins.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:46 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
rawaction wrote:I'd keep one of those RBs. The whole "bird in the hand". IDK if your league is PPR, but Collins ADP is 3.10. Drake 4.04, so both have value in the 7th. Non-PPR, Collins up a little, Drake goes to 4.03 so no real change.

I really like Collins, and he doesn't have much blocking him from high volume in the Ravens backfield. Drake has Gore who will likely get a lot of 1st down and goal line work. So, I'd lean Collins, but Drake in PPR is really intriguing.

Either way, no picks between 5th and 8th rounds isn't a huge deal as you'll have 2 players and 6 picks (5 top 27) before that point. I assume that should be enough to fill most (if not all) of your starting lineup.


Meant to say this when you posted but thanks! Ended up keeping Cook and Collins.

Yeah, obviously the right move. Having great value keeps and lots of early round picks while missing out on underrated players in the middle of the draft is a good "problem" to have.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:38 pm

A little help please?

I'm in a 12-team PPR keeper league (keep 1 player, lose the round's pick in which that player was picked the next).

So, I finished last last year, so I have the #1 pick this year (David Johnson injury, picked TY Hilton over Hopkins in the 2nd)......but my keeper is Alvin Kamara (15th round).

So, being that I have Kamara, what should my draft strategy be with the #1 pick.

My first thought is to go Antonio Brown. Been in the top 5 of non-QBs in PPR points every year since 2014.

But do I consider going RB and having potentially a pair of top 6 guys at the position? If so, do I go Bell (3 of 4 years in top 5) or Gurley (top scorer last year)?

My league is very WR happy, and I'm probably looking at someone on the Stephon Diggs level as my top WR if I don't go AB in the 1st. I think I could still get a decent 2nd RB when the draft comes back around (Jordan Howard level).

Thoughts?
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:47 pm

rawaction wrote:A little help please?

I'm in a 12-team PPR keeper league (keep 1 player, lose the round's pick in which that player was picked the next).

So, I finished last last year, so I have the #1 pick this year (David Johnson injury, picked TY Hilton over Hopkins in the 2nd)......but my keeper is Alvin Kamara (15th round).

So, being that I have Kamara, what should my draft strategy be with the #1 pick.

My first thought is to go Antonio Brown. Been in the top 5 of non-QBs in PPR points every year since 2014.

But do I consider going RB and having potentially a pair of top 6 guys at the position? If so, do I go Bell (3 of 4 years in top 5) or Gurley (top scorer last year)?

My league is very WR happy, and I'm probably looking at someone on the Stephon Diggs level as my top WR if I don't go AB in the 1st. I think I could still get a decent 2nd RB when the draft comes back around (Jordan Howard level).

Thoughts?

As long as you still have an open RB spot to fill, even WITH Kamara I don't think you need to force yourself away from Bell with the top pick. He's the best value. Take him. Hell, you could trade Bell for a 2nd rounder-type WR and a decent RB. Take Bell and crush everyone with your awesome RB duo. And if you take Bell and guys like Kamara are already off the board, even in a WR zany league, you might cause a run on RBs, and then you could have better than Diggs sitting around in the 2nd, like a Devante Adams or so?
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:11 am

8 team, 2 QB dynasty keeper league, can keep up to 5 players. Non-PPR, no salary cap just lose 1 round up from the year before where a guy was drafted (if he was a FA he costs RD 10 pick). Already keeping Zeke (costs giving up RD1 PK 5) and Michael Thomas (RD9) need to decide to keep up to 3 of these, round of pick lost in parenthesis, Brady (RD2), Alex Smith (RD8), Wentz (RD9), Mariota (RD13), Alex Collins (RD10), McKinnon (RD10).


I'm leaning Wentz, Smith and Collins. Kind of want to keep my RD 2 pick open to see who's out there, it will be pick 12 overall but probably will have up to ~7 guys kept leading up to it so may really be like having the ~5th overall pick so it's likely even Brady is there.

I'm pretty set on Wentz and Collins, debate is really Smith vs Mariota (which there's some value in the pick difference). But could be swayed with some thoughts.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:44 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:8 team, 2 QB dynasty keeper league, can keep up to 5 players. Non-PPR, no salary cap just lose 1 round up from the year before where a guy was drafted (if he was a FA he costs RD 10 pick). Already keeping Zeke (costs giving up RD1 PK 5) and Michael Thomas (RD9) need to decide to keep up to 3 of these, round of pick lost in parenthesis, Brady (RD2), Alex Smith (RD8), Wentz (RD9), Mariota (RD13), Alex Collins (RD10), McKinnon (RD10).


I'm leaning Wentz, Smith and Collins. Kind of want to keep my RD 2 pick open to see who's out there, it will be pick 12 overall but probably will have up to ~7 guys kept leading up to it so may really be like having the ~5th overall pick so it's likely even Brady is there.

I'm pretty set on Wentz and Collins, debate is really Smith vs Mariota (which there's some value in the pick difference). But could be swayed with some thoughts.

Like I said before, I'm not used to 2 QB leagues, but based on how they are valued in your league, I think you have to consider keeping three of Brady, Wentz, Smith and Mariota. Also, I know that in keeper leagues that early R1 draft picks aren't as valuable as in standard, but I would at least consider keeping one of Collins and McKinnon and tossing back Zeke, unless you think he's a top 2 RB, which I don't.
If it were me, it would be Thomas, Smith, Wentz, Mariota, Collins.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:33 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:8 team, 2 QB dynasty keeper league, can keep up to 5 players. Non-PPR, no salary cap just lose 1 round up from the year before where a guy was drafted (if he was a FA he costs RD 10 pick). Already keeping Zeke (costs giving up RD1 PK 5) and Michael Thomas (RD9) need to decide to keep up to 3 of these, round of pick lost in parenthesis, Brady (RD2), Alex Smith (RD8), Wentz (RD9), Mariota (RD13), Alex Collins (RD10), McKinnon (RD10).


I'm leaning Wentz, Smith and Collins. Kind of want to keep my RD 2 pick open to see who's out there, it will be pick 12 overall but probably will have up to ~7 guys kept leading up to it so may really be like having the ~5th overall pick so it's likely even Brady is there.

I'm pretty set on Wentz and Collins, debate is really Smith vs Mariota (which there's some value in the pick difference). But could be swayed with some thoughts.

Like I said before, I'm not used to 2 QB leagues, but based on how they are valued in your league, I think you have to consider keeping three of Brady, Wentz, Smith and Mariota. Also, I know that in keeper leagues that early R1 draft picks aren't as valuable as in standard, but I would at least consider keeping one of Collins and McKinnon and tossing back Zeke, unless you think he's a top 2 RB, which I don't.
If it were me, it would be Thomas, Smith, Wentz, Mariota, Collins.


I think Zeke's a top 3 RB. He hasn't really been hurt and has been a top back on a per game basis in his 2 years, especially non PPR. Thomas for 9th is a no-brainer. I'd probably only keep 2 QBs, you can always add a 3rd in the draft. Smith and Wentz would be my choices. Collins > McKinnon in non-PPR and I don't like McKinnon's chances of staying healthy with full RB load. I think OP was on the right track.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:53 am

rawaction wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:8 team, 2 QB dynasty keeper league, can keep up to 5 players. Non-PPR, no salary cap just lose 1 round up from the year before where a guy was drafted (if he was a FA he costs RD 10 pick). Already keeping Zeke (costs giving up RD1 PK 5) and Michael Thomas (RD9) need to decide to keep up to 3 of these, round of pick lost in parenthesis, Brady (RD2), Alex Smith (RD8), Wentz (RD9), Mariota (RD13), Alex Collins (RD10), McKinnon (RD10).


I'm leaning Wentz, Smith and Collins. Kind of want to keep my RD 2 pick open to see who's out there, it will be pick 12 overall but probably will have up to ~7 guys kept leading up to it so may really be like having the ~5th overall pick so it's likely even Brady is there.

I'm pretty set on Wentz and Collins, debate is really Smith vs Mariota (which there's some value in the pick difference). But could be swayed with some thoughts.

Like I said before, I'm not used to 2 QB leagues, but based on how they are valued in your league, I think you have to consider keeping three of Brady, Wentz, Smith and Mariota. Also, I know that in keeper leagues that early R1 draft picks aren't as valuable as in standard, but I would at least consider keeping one of Collins and McKinnon and tossing back Zeke, unless you think he's a top 2 RB, which I don't.
If it were me, it would be Thomas, Smith, Wentz, Mariota, Collins.


I think Zeke's a top 3 RB. He hasn't really been hurt and has been a top back on a per game basis in his 2 years, especially non PPR. Thomas for 9th is a no-brainer. I'd probably only keep 2 QBs, you can always add a 3rd in the draft. Smith and Wentz would be my choices. Collins > McKinnon in non-PPR and I don't like McKinnon's chances of staying healthy with full RB load. I think OP was on the right track.

I mean, if you think Zeke is the third best RB (and that's totally reasonable) and I know that Bell is still out there to be drafted...its pretty thin value to be using your pick number five to get who you think should be going at pick three, when INSTEAD you could be getting a QB in round 13 that would otherwise be going in what, round 6? Depending on how much your league trades, you can always trade him...and once again, you might cause a run on QBs when you already have all of your QB needs met! That pays off up and down the draft board for you.
I'll put it another way. If you throw Zeke back, who do you think you have to pick from for pick 5? Is that difference in value between unnamed player and Zeke the same as the difference between Mariota and whatever trash is left in round 13?
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:16 am

So, I am in a playoff fantasy thing where you have a 14-man roster:

2 QB
4 WR
4 RB
2 TE
1 K
1 DEF

You have to pick ONE player from each playoff team. Scoring is typical 1/2 PPR (which I've never done). But these are my current picks:

QB- Wilson-SEA, Brady- TB
RB- Dobbins- BAL, Henry- TEN, Chubb- CLE, Kamara- NO
WR- McLaurin- WFT, Adams- GB, Smith-Schuster- PIT, Diggs- BUF
TE- Kelce- KC, Burton- IND
K- Santos- CHI
DEF- LA Rams

Figured put my K and D on my teams most likely to lose this weekend. I really wanted to put Jonathan Taylor-IND at RB, which would mean Andrews-BAL at TE, but I think the Ravens are more likely to win than the Colts, so I'm more likely to get a 2nd game out of Dobbins. I also would like a QB I think is going to the SB, but the favorites are KC and GB and they have the best TE and WR respectively.

Anything different anyone would do?
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:50 am

rawaction wrote:So, I am in a playoff fantasy thing where you have a 14-man roster:

2 QB
4 WR
4 RB
2 TE
1 K
1 DEF

You have to pick ONE player from each playoff team. Scoring is typical 1/2 PPR (which I've never done). But these are my current picks:

QB- Wilson-SEA, Brady- TB
RB- Dobbins- BAL, Henry- TEN, Chubb- CLE, Kamara- NO
WR- McLaurin- WFT, Adams- GB, Smith-Schuster- PIT, Diggs- BUF
TE- Kelce- KC, Burton- IND
K- Santos- CHI
DEF- LA Rams

Figured put my K and D on my teams most likely to lose this weekend. I really wanted to put Jonathan Taylor-IND at RB, which would mean Andrews-BAL at TE, but I think the Ravens are more likely to win than the Colts, so I'm more likely to get a 2nd game out of Dobbins. I also would like a QB I think is going to the SB, but the favorites are KC and GB and they have the best TE and WR respectively.

Anything different anyone would do?

How many teams, and what is the payout structure? Depending on those details, I would possibly do things a LOT differently. You also have to take into account how sharp your opponents are. You start getting into DFS ownership game theory and things like that. If everyone in the league is choosing Adams, Diggs, Kelce, etc, what do you really gain by having them? If the goal is to win the league, you want to have players that are not owned by many/all the other players, so if they do well, you are gaining on the entire field. That isn't you say that you want to pick horsefeathers players and just pray that they do well...but there is a balance, and it depends on A) how many opponents are in this contest B) how good you think your opponents are at identifying the obviously best plays (which I think you largely have) and C) how many players you think are galaxy braining it like me/we are.

PPR also has a big say in it. For instance, I think you are right that you want to burn K and DEF on likely-to-lose teams in general, and most especially in PPR formats. But a DEF on a good team could easily outscore a smith schuster or the like in standard. Bills D will likely go unowned, so if they get a few TDs on their way to a SB appearence, you have a big leg up on beating everyone. ...I think you'd need to be up against more than 12 people to consider something like that tho. Also consider that the 1 seed teams' ceilings are capped at 3 games, while the better 2 and 3 seed teams have legit shots at 4 games. Depending on format, you might want to load up on positions that will tend to score the most for those 4-game-upside teams largely for value, and most especially if you don't think other opponents will roster them.

Edit: Just saw that its half ppr...hmm. Decided to look up median projections. See below.
Last edited by JudasIscariotTheBird on Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:02 am

Oh! One more thing. Let's assume that QB is the highest scoring position, on average, in your settings. I think it's a minor mistake to have QBs from the same conference on your roster. If taking first is important, you are capping your upside because those two QBs cannot face each other in the SB. Otherwise, I think Wilson and Brady (not on 1 seed teams) are good plays. It all hinges on what you think your opponents are likely to do.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:20 am

So yeah, in .5 ppr, the QB's median projections are much larger than positions projected medians. Because of that, and other ownership shenanigans, I would go:

QB: Allen, Brady
RB: Kamara, Jones, Carson, Taylor
WR: Robinson, Hollywood Brown, Dionte, AJ Brown
K - Parkey
TE - Kelce, Thomas
DEF - Rams

Allen has a gigantic ceiling advantage on the field (and being a rushing QB gives you TD leverage on teams using Diggs), and Brady has the best ceiling in the NFC. Everyone and their mom is going to use Adams (and if not, Rodgers). Jones is almost as good of a value compared to your alternatives, and he'll come with nearly no ownership. Kamara is just projected for too many points to pass on.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:18 pm

Interesting takes. Thanks!

There's 78 people in this thing, so I have to be pretty unique to win. Payout is $1200 to the winner, down to $200 for 2nd place, and 7-10th place get $50. $20 buy in. I think I will take your advice on some of the moves, definitely the QBs from different conferences. Played it safe-ish last year and was out of it before the Superbowl. No risk it, no biscuit!
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby CubColtPacer » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:17 pm

rawaction wrote:Interesting takes. Thanks!

There's 78 people in this thing, so I have to be pretty unique to win. Payout is $1200 to the winner, down to $200 for 2nd place, and 7-10th place get $50. $20 buy in. I think I will take your advice on some of the moves, definitely the QBs from different conferences. Played it safe-ish last year and was out of it before the Superbowl. No risk it, no biscuit!


Yeah, if that's true you definitely have to swing for the fences. Here's my best look

QB: Josh Allen, Tom Brady
RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Cam Akers
WR: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Allen Robinson
TE: Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Defense: Washington

If one of your QB's only plays one game, your lineup is probably finished. And you want to maximize your QB games. So in this lineup, I put wildcard teams in different conferences, and made sure to put the teams facing them in kicker/defense.

I think you have enough differentiation points to put some studs in there, so that's why Kelce/Adams/Henry are pretty much locks IMO. I went back and forth on Baltimore/Seattle, but because Metcalf is facing Ramsey this week and Seattle wanting to run the ball made me go that way.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby ChiCubsFan » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:42 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:
rawaction wrote:Interesting takes. Thanks!

There's 78 people in this thing, so I have to be pretty unique to win. Payout is $1200 to the winner, down to $200 for 2nd place, and 7-10th place get $50. $20 buy in. I think I will take your advice on some of the moves, definitely the QBs from different conferences. Played it safe-ish last year and was out of it before the Superbowl. No risk it, no biscuit!


Yeah, if that's true you definitely have to swing for the fences. Here's my best look

QB: Josh Allen, Tom Brady
RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Cam Akers
WR: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Allen Robinson
TE: Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Defense: Washington

If one of your QB's only plays one game, your lineup is probably finished. And you want to maximize your QB games. So in this lineup, I put wildcard teams in different conferences, and made sure to put the teams facing them in kicker/defense.

I think you have enough differentiation points to put some studs in there, so that's why Kelce/Adams/Henry are pretty much locks IMO. I went back and forth on Baltimore/Seattle, but because Metcalf is facing Ramsey this week and Seattle wanting to run the ball made me go that way.


This is pretty solid. I’ve ran one of these second season leagues for about the last decade. I usually only get about 20-30 people but also compete in large confidence pools so understand the game theory behind a field of that size. Once my buddy and I had the exact same lineup and we won it.

Outside of this lineup, I think you can make the argument to fade Kelce and go with Tyreek/Andrews instead of Kelce/Hollywood. I’m sure most will have Kelce with some Mahomes sprinkled in and maybe a few Reeks.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:57 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:
rawaction wrote:Interesting takes. Thanks!

There's 78 people in this thing, so I have to be pretty unique to win. Payout is $1200 to the winner, down to $200 for 2nd place, and 7-10th place get $50. $20 buy in. I think I will take your advice on some of the moves, definitely the QBs from different conferences. Played it safe-ish last year and was out of it before the Superbowl. No risk it, no biscuit!


Yeah, if that's true you definitely have to swing for the fences. Here's my best look

QB: Josh Allen, Tom Brady
RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Cam Akers
WR: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Allen Robinson
TE: Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Defense: Washington

If one of your QB's only plays one game, your lineup is probably finished. And you want to maximize your QB games. So in this lineup, I put wildcard teams in different conferences, and made sure to put the teams facing them in kicker/defense.

I think you have enough differentiation points to put some studs in there, so that's why Kelce/Adams/Henry are pretty much locks IMO. I went back and forth on Baltimore/Seattle, but because Metcalf is facing Ramsey this week and Seattle wanting to run the ball made me go that way.

I like that line up. I just think its a cash game line up. Its top chalk at literally every position. 78 is a fair amount and payout is very top heavy. I might even get more wild than where I went with my previous line up.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby CubColtPacer » Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:45 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
CubColtPacer wrote:
rawaction wrote:Interesting takes. Thanks!

There's 78 people in this thing, so I have to be pretty unique to win. Payout is $1200 to the winner, down to $200 for 2nd place, and 7-10th place get $50. $20 buy in. I think I will take your advice on some of the moves, definitely the QBs from different conferences. Played it safe-ish last year and was out of it before the Superbowl. No risk it, no biscuit!


Yeah, if that's true you definitely have to swing for the fences. Here's my best look

QB: Josh Allen, Tom Brady
RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Cam Akers
WR: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Allen Robinson
TE: Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Defense: Washington

If one of your QB's only plays one game, your lineup is probably finished. And you want to maximize your QB games. So in this lineup, I put wildcard teams in different conferences, and made sure to put the teams facing them in kicker/defense.

I think you have enough differentiation points to put some studs in there, so that's why Kelce/Adams/Henry are pretty much locks IMO. I went back and forth on Baltimore/Seattle, but because Metcalf is facing Ramsey this week and Seattle wanting to run the ball made me go that way.

I like that line up. I just think its a cash game line up. Its top chalk at literally every position. 78 is a fair amount and payout is very top heavy. I might even get more wild than where I went with my previous line up.


I understand that thought. But I think over 2-4 games, the variance becomes a little smaller and fading the absolute stars becomes harder than it does in a 1 week lineup. You have to pick your spots carefully to try to differentiate.

I think if you were going to go wilder you should do it based off teams you don't expect to advance. That's probably the best way to pick a crazy scenario (for example, picking Roethlisberger or Lamar Jackson at QB, Taylor at RB, etc).
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:16 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
CubColtPacer wrote:
Yeah, if that's true you definitely have to swing for the fences. Here's my best look

QB: Josh Allen, Tom Brady
RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Cam Akers
WR: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Allen Robinson
TE: Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Defense: Washington

If one of your QB's only plays one game, your lineup is probably finished. And you want to maximize your QB games. So in this lineup, I put wildcard teams in different conferences, and made sure to put the teams facing them in kicker/defense.

I think you have enough differentiation points to put some studs in there, so that's why Kelce/Adams/Henry are pretty much locks IMO. I went back and forth on Baltimore/Seattle, but because Metcalf is facing Ramsey this week and Seattle wanting to run the ball made me go that way.

I like that line up. I just think its a cash game line up. Its top chalk at literally every position. 78 is a fair amount and payout is very top heavy. I might even get more wild than where I went with my previous line up.


I understand that thought. But I think over 2-4 games, the variance becomes a little smaller and fading the absolute stars becomes harder than it does in a 1 week lineup. You have to pick your spots carefully to try to differentiate.

I think if you were going to go wilder you should do it based off teams you don't expect to advance. That's probably the best way to pick a crazy scenario (for example, picking Roethlisberger or Lamar Jackson at QB, Taylor at RB, etc).

Well yes and no. Likelihood of advancement/elimination actually makes fading the stars MORE palatable. They might get limited to just one game, and many are capped at three. Its like getting a game-ending injury in DFS, but MUCH more likely. I'll be curious to hear how this goes. I've never thought about this type of format before. Kinda dig it.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:22 pm

Also, Taylor has to be chalk city, right? Who else are you going to play from that team? TY? The kicker?
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:11 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Also, Taylor has to be chalk city, right? Who else are you going to play from that team? TY? The kicker?


That was my thinking with the Colts as well as the Rams. I figured Goff wasn't starting (of course he's in 2nd series as I type), which makes their WRs pointless. And the Rams were playing a division game against an offense not as red hot. So, my decision basically came down to Taylor vs. Akers which was easy for me in Taylor's favor. Taylor's better bet for points and the Colts were more likely to win their game, IMO.

I went with

QB: Josh Allen, Tom Brady
RB: J Taylor, Kamara, Aaron Jones, Carson
WR: A Robinson, AJ Brown, McLaurin, Claypool
TE: Kelce, Andrews
K: Browns
DEF: Rams

Picked Claypool over the other Pittsburgh WRs because he's the big play guy and he was their top WR in both games vs. Cleveland. I couldn't pick Marqise Brown over Andrews in case the Ravens win, and they probably have the best chance to pull the upset this weekend. Thought about Dobbins but that probably would have meant Logan Thomas at TE and Davante over Aaron Jones. I wanted to go with my gamble that nobody picked Jones w/ Adams and Rodgers as options for GB. And Jones scored twice in each of the playoff games last year for the Packers.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:36 pm

I dig it. I'm more interested in what everyone else in the league did, in general.
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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby rawaction » Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:08 pm

Well looks like my thoughts on Taylor vs Akers were wrong all around, though Taylor did have 80 yards and a TD. But Akers may win this game. Rams D has a TD and several sacks already though

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Re: Fantasy Football Draft/Keeper Advice

Postby ChiCubsFan » Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:04 am

rawaction wrote:Well looks like my thoughts on Taylor vs Akers were wrong all around, though Taylor did have 80 yards and a TD. But Akers may win this game. Rams D has a TD and several sacks already though

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Indy was a 7 point dog and LA was only +3. You obviously never want your D to advance but at least they got you a good amount of points.

What site is this on? When I ran mine I used secondseason, but never really liked the site too much. Can you see ownership %?
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