2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

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2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:28 am

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/06/ ... umors.html

4. Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: The Tigers held onto Boyd when he was one of the most oft-mentioned trade candidates in the game in 2019, but their club control on him is beginning to dwindle. Boyd is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, and he’s enjoying a nice year thanks largely to a new-look changeup that has helped him neutralize opposing right-handers. So long as Boyd stays healthy and reasonably effective, this summer will be his trade value’s apex. It’s hard to see him sticking around into August.


He doesn't throw so hard but Boyd's LH with a very effective fastball, two things this rotation lacks plus he still throws a couple MPH harder than the typical Cubs starter

13. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers: Like Boyd, Fulmer has a year of control beyond the 2021 campaign and was an oft-mentioned trade candidate earlier in his career. It’s a little easier to see why Fulmer wasn’t moved, as trading a former AL Rookie of the Year when he had four or even five years of club control remaining would’ve required a massive haul. By the time he was in a more conventional window to be moved, injuries had wrecked multiple seasons for the righty. Those look to be in the past now, however, as Fulmer has seamlessly moved from the rotation to the ’pen, stepping up as Detroit’s closer in 2021. His fastball velocity is as good as ever now that he’s working in short stints, and Fulmer boasts career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. He’s owed a raise on his $3.1MM salary in arbitration this winter, but that looks plenty reasonable for this version of the right-hander.


Would love him for the bullpen this year and then a move into the rotation for 2022, highest average velocity game this year was actually an early season start IIRC

32. German Marquez, RHP, Rockies: While Gray and Story look like near-locks to be moved, Marquez is in a different situation. The 26-year-old is signed affordably through 2024, earning $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 before the Rockies (or another club) can decide between a $16MM club option or a $2.5MM buyout. He was absolutely blown up by the Giants last month, serving up eight runs and getting knocked out in the first inning, but he’s been excellent outside that one fluke appearance. Marquez has a 4.47 ERA overall but a 3.28 mark if you’re willing to overlook that career-worst day. Marquez whiffs hitters at an average or better rate, typically has a better-than-average walk rate (albeit not so far in 2021) and induces grounders north of 50 percent. He’s posted a combined 4.18 ERA since 2018 while calling Coors Field home. Most clubs would view him as a mid-rotation starter with the upside for more, and his affordable contract adds to the value.


Biggest name here, I'm leery of the increased walk rate even if the stuff is the same (still 95, curve and slider both actually have increased whiff%). I really like that he's seen the playoffs, at his best has all the pitcher skills

Mancini would be a natural trade candidate were he not the Orioles’ feel-good story of the season — the heart-and-soul of the clubhouse who triumphed over a frightening diagnosis of Stage 3 colon cancer. The optics of trading him wouldn’t be great, and the move would be felt immensely in the clubhouse.


Mancini would be an interesting add in the same vein as Castellanos 2019 but a much wider skillset. He's under contract another year with the ability to play 1B and RF

Missed this guy:

39. Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals: Kansas City’s recent tailspin has caused them to plummet in the AL Central standings. They’re in a tough spot with Duffy, as he’s a free agent at season’s end who was enjoying a dominant start to the season before hitting the injured list. Duffy is a homegrown product who’s already signed an extension once and has somewhat famously declared, “Bury me a Royal” in response to past trade rumors surrounding him. The Royals are trying to move toward a more competitive cycle and surely want him to be a part of that. Kansas City, perhaps more than any other club, is loyal to its core players and resistant toward trading veterans for prospects. At the same time, interest in Duffy will be strong if he’s healthy. They could conceivably trade him in July then try to re-sign him in November, but this sort of move isn’t really GM Dayton Moore’s style. Duffy will be in demand, but I could just as easily see the Royals signing him to an extension.


He's having a really good year, averages 93 as a LHSP, has postseason and WS experience
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:12 am

I have no interest in any of those names other than Marquez but I think he takes a pretty expensive prospect package and idk if we’ are gonna be buying on that level. The rest of the guys mentioned all have a pretty solid history of sucking or being hurt, pass.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:28 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I have no interest in any of those names other than Marquez but I think he takes a pretty expensive prospect package and idk if we’ are gonna be buying on that level. The rest of the guys mentioned all have a pretty solid history of sucking or being hurt, pass.


But then who? Sounds like an extremely small pool if you're risk *and* cost averse
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:03 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I have no interest in any of those names other than Marquez but I think he takes a pretty expensive prospect package and idk if we’ are gonna be buying on that level. The rest of the guys mentioned all have a pretty solid history of sucking or being hurt, pass.


But then who? Sounds like an extremely small pool if you're risk *and* cost averse

I, personally, would not be too risk or cost averse. The division sucks and the rest of the league isn’t overly special. A Marquez moves the needle for me for both this and next year+ so he’s worth giving up some stuff. A Duffy, Fulmer, Boyd, etc type will still cost something decent but does not move the team to a new contention spectrum for me. So may as well give their innings to Thompson, Mills, Stewart, Abbot, etc.

Either really do some buying or find some cheap adds that don’t cost horsefeathers. I’d rather we just sell vs trade an asset for Danny Duffy.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:33 am

Cubswin11 wrote:I, personally, would not be too risk or cost averse. The division sucks and the rest of the league isn’t overly special. A Marquez moves the needle for me for both this and next year+ so he’s worth giving up some stuff. A Duffy, Fulmer, Boyd, etc type will still cost something decent but does not move the team to a new contention spectrum for me. So may as well give their innings to Thompson, Mills, Stewart, Abbot, etc.

Either really do some buying or find some cheap adds that don’t cost horsefeathers. I’d rather we just sell vs trade an asset for Danny Duffy.


Now this rationale I don’t get...Mills shouldn’t be in/on a playoff rotation or probably even staff at all, Abbott’s got an ERA near 7 at AAA, both guys do nothing to solve the rotation’s velocity and HR issues, Stewart’s thrown like 25 innings with the org and only 3 in the MLs...Giving those guys innings late season and playoff innings unquestioned because upgrading might cost whatever something decent/an asset even is a terrible idea. It’s a buyers market this year, the Adames trade made that very clearly I don’t think we need to worry about the farm being dismantled by trading for someone like Duffy or Fulmer or really even Marquez if available. None of those guys are returning a Davis or Marquez or Howard or Hernandez/Quintero, probably not whoever looks more like a stud btw Gallardo and Jensen if any by then either
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:03 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I, personally, would not be too risk or cost averse. The division sucks and the rest of the league isn’t overly special. A Marquez moves the needle for me for both this and next year+ so he’s worth giving up some stuff. A Duffy, Fulmer, Boyd, etc type will still cost something decent but does not move the team to a new contention spectrum for me. So may as well give their innings to Thompson, Mills, Stewart, Abbot, etc.

Either really do some buying or find some cheap adds that don’t cost horsefeathers. I’d rather we just sell vs trade an asset for Danny Duffy.


Now this rationale I don’t get...Mills shouldn’t be in/on a playoff rotation or probably even staff at all, Abbott’s got an ERA near 7 at AAA, both guys do nothing to solve the rotation’s velocity and HR issues, Stewart’s thrown like 25 innings with the org and only 3 in the MLs...Giving those guys innings late season and playoff innings unquestioned because upgrading might cost whatever something decent/an asset even is a terrible idea. It’s a buyers market this year, the Adames trade made that very clearly I don’t think we need to worry about the farm being dismantled by trading for someone like Duffy or Fulmer or really even Marquez if available. None of those guys are returning a Davis or Marquez or Howard or Hernandez/Quintero, probably not whoever looks more like a stud btw Gallardo and Jensen by then either

If they don’t take meaningful prospects go nuts. I’m good with that, I just think we see a sellers market by the time it actually comes time to make moves. Idk if the Adames trade is indicative of anything, the Rays do weird stuff all the time and the Brewers needed some MIF help. I’d say that’s an outlier move for what it means to the overall market. Also, Adames may suck/just is a very average high K/low BA power SS. Don’t think he’s very good. We still have a few weeks for the real market to develop. I hope we are buying to some degree but don’t think it will necessarily be an advantage to be a buyer in the next 35-45 days.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:16 am

Cubswin11 wrote:If they don’t take meaningful prospects go nuts. I’m good with that, I just think we see a sellers market by the time it actually comes time to make moves. Idk if the Adames trade is indicative of anything, the Rays do weird stuff all the time and the Brewers needed some MIF help. I’d say that’s an outlier move for what it means to the overall market. Also, Adames may suck/just is a very average high K/low BA power SS. Don’t think he’s very good. We still have a few weeks for the real market to develop. I hope we are buying to some degree but don’t think it will necessarily be an advantage to be a buyer in the next 35-45 days.


Why wouldn’t the Rays, being the Rays, charge a team in need more? Why would it become a seller’s market? Might get a little more expensive as the deadline approaches but the players teams want to move will move

If Adames sucks, truly, then I’m genuinely curious who falls under meaningful prospect/asset/something decent. That’s got to be a small group too if standards are so high!
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 am

33. Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers: Similar to Marquez, Turnbull is a controllable starter on a rebuilding team who doesn’t “have” to be moved this deadline. His recent no-hitter garnered him some national attention — deservedly so — but Turnbull has been a solid starter since the 2019 season. Over his past 245 1/3 innings, he has a 4.22 ERA and 3.68 FIP. He’s enjoying the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career so far and allowing less hard contact than he ever has. Turnbull won’t even be arbitration-eligible until this winter and is controlled through 2024, so the Tigers could certainly hold onto him. Then again, they got burned by doing just that with Boyd and Fulmer, so perhaps they’ll be more proactive this time around.

6. Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pirates: Frazier has put last year’s awful season in the rear-view mirror and is in the midst of the best start of his six-year career. The 29-year-old has ample experience at second base and in the outfield, and he could fill in as a starter or versatile bench option for any contending club. His $4.3MM salary is, incredibly, the second-largest on the Pirates behind Gregory Polanco, but that’s an eminently affordable price for Frazier even if he reverts back to his typical, roughly league-average level of offensive output.

The switch-hitting Cabrera, meanwhile, just keeps on producing, even at 35 years of age. He’s no longer a shortstop, but Cabrera can handle either infield corner and second base. He’s been an average or better hitter every season since 2015, and this year has been perhaps the best start of his generally underrated career. Playing on just a $1.75MM salary this season, he’d be a boost to any contending club’s infield mix, although he’s currently on the injured list with a right hamstring strain.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:34 pm

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/06/ ... njury.html

I forget the Rangers somehow got Kolby Allard for Chris Martin a couple years ago, but I’d love if one of Brothers or Maples or Mills could do something similar...With Alcantara on the roster there may be some opportunity to shove Sogard in a trade as a LHH MIF with playoff experience to really sweeten the deal
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Post Count Padder » Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:42 pm

Yeah I'd love to sell high on Brothers. We have enough other options in the pen and Wieck looks back up to speed as another lefty. Would be nice to send him and a prospect for something else useful.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Bertz » Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:51 pm



I'll be honest, I actually like Jesse's Kimbrel suggestion.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Andy » Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:25 pm

Trading Kimbrel is a pragmatic and probably smart move to add more potential impact prospects, but the way playoff baseball is played now, if you trade your stud closer, you might as well just trade everybody because you aren't even pretending you think you can win the crapshoot tournament.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:25 pm

Elite closers certainly have the best return to impact ratio (meaning most trade return compared to impact from losing the player), and definitely ones with HOF credentials pitching as well as they have at any point in their career so I get it from that aspect. I'd hate to trade Kimbrel right now though... I'd dangle him and pull the trigger if some desperate team blows us away with an offer.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:16 pm

I’d want a prospect with real starting potential for Kimbrel, preferably a LHH OF? Right now he easily could factor into more draft picks and money, and I’m a big fan of taking the picks
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:39 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1401878665403809798?s=19

I'll be honest, I actually like Jesse's Kimbrel suggestion.


I suggested this a while ago. He's making almost as much as KB, so the savings would be beneficial. Also, I think packaging Bote and Mills with a prospect might gets us something that we can use.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:54 pm

Ketel Marte seems like a popular name in made up rumors. Cubs should be alllll over that, maybe dangle Happ for pitching?

Marte’s got 3/26 on his deal after this year, two of those are options for $8 and $10 million
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:18 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1401878665403809798?s=19

I'll be honest, I actually like Jesse's Kimbrel suggestion.


I suggested this a while ago. He's making almost as much as KB, so the savings would be beneficial. Also, I think packaging Bote and Mills with a prospect might gets us something that we can use.

Mills got traded to the Nationals last night.

Just remembering part of a really weird dream I had.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Bertz » Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:01 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1401878665403809798?s=19

I'll be honest, I actually like Jesse's Kimbrel suggestion.


I suggested this a while ago. He's making almost as much as KB, so the savings would be beneficial. Also, I think packaging Bote and Mills with a prospect might gets us something that we can use.


I don't really care about savings. It's not 2019 where there was, ironically, a Kimbrel out there to be had for just money. Saving money now just goes into PTR's pocket. Unless you have a pretty sizable salary dump in mind to be on the receiving end of. But even then the team's been trumpeting how early re-opening has them ahead of the curve money wise if they want to do in season moves, so it shouldn't b necessary (even beyond the standard "PTR should spend more" point).

For me, I'm just very wary that this team is going to pull a Giants of 2-3 years ago and fall out of it like a week after the trade deadline. Most of our guys on expiring deals aren't going to bring back much, so I'm not too worried about wasting them as trade chips. But Bryant and Kimbrel are VALUABLE. I'd hate to bungle that situation. Bryant's not at all replaceable internally, but Kimbrel sort of is. The pen is good and deep, and there's a couple of monster arms in the high minors who could come up and do K-Rod things in the second half. I think if you trade Kimbrel while importing a solid SP and OF, you've modestly improved the MLB club and the farm.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:39 pm

This talk just reminds me of how much I do not envy the position that Jed and co. have put themselves in trying to balance a team that is still competitive but has glaring holes with the fact that this is their last chance to get any value (besides draft picks) from 3 of their most valuable players who don't seem particularly likely to resign. I doubt they'll go all in as buyers and as things stand today I don't see them going all in as sellers so it will likely be somewhere in the middle.

One thing I've found interesting is that since that horrific slump to start the season, the Cubs have avoided any major offensive slumps since then. The closer we get to mid-July without a major slump, the more confident you can feel that maybe the offense has figured something out and aren't going to nosedive after spending resources to improve the team. At least that's how I look at it.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby BigSlick » Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:17 pm

The Cubs have put themselves in an almost Major-League-The-Film-esque position of trying to tank and then playing surprisingly well kinda screwing up their opportunities to sell off players who are on their last year of contract.

It's maddening and I don't envy Jed either. The Ricketts are a cancer, obviously
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby CubinNY » Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:41 pm

UMFan83 wrote: I doubt they'll go all in as buyers and as things stand today I don't see them going all in as sellers so it will likely be somewhere in the middle.

You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In Between

There is also some quote by Billy Beane about how it's worse to be in the Cubs' position than it is to be bad. But really, I'm not much interested in them selling Marquez or any of the other top prospects they have, so I guess nibbling around the edges and rolling the dice is the strategy I'd like to see them use.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby CubinNY » Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:44 pm

UMFan83 wrote: I doubt they'll go all in as buyers and as things stand today I don't see them going all in as sellers so it will likely be somewhere in the middle.

You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In Between

There is also some quote by Billy Beane about how it's worse to be in the Cubs' position than it is to be bad. But really, I'm not much interested in them selling Marquez, Davis, or any of the other top prospects they have, so I guess nibbling around the edges and rolling the dice is the strategy I'd like to see them use.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby pitchcs » Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:49 pm

CubinNY wrote:
UMFan83 wrote: I doubt they'll go all in as buyers and as things stand today I don't see them going all in as sellers so it will likely be somewhere in the middle.

You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In Between

There is also some quote by Billy Beane about how it's worse to be in the Cubs' position than it is to be bad. But really, I'm not much interested in them selling Marquez, Davis, or any of the other top prospects they have, so I guess nibbling around the edges and rolling the dice is the strategy I'd like to see them use.


I don't think you have to worry about trading Brennan Davis.
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:10 pm

So if the Cardinals do pursue Trevor Story in a trade or free agency, can we finally take away that ridiculous competitive balance pick they get every year?
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Re: 2021 Trade Deadline Targets, Rumors, and Rampant Speculation

Postby d_money » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:45 pm

Tryptamine wrote:So if the Cardinals do pursue Trevor Story in a trade or free agency, can we finally take away that ridiculous competitive balance pick they get every year?

It’s a total joke. The equation for CB should include attendance. We’re pissed at PTR but the Cards rake in a ton of $ and don’t spend what they should.
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